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Jon Carnes is actively short SVM at the moment. Today he and associated hedge funds launched a short raid on SVM knocking the price down almost 6% at one point before recovering to a 3.5% loss at the close. Luckily the overall PM sector was bullish today and buying/covering occurred at the close.
This raid was accomplished using this publication on his website as ammunition to short the stock: http://tinyurl.com/aww82lu
Looking at the today's trading history, I see one massive block sale exceeding 555K, which almost never happens. This was a not for profit sale designed to run stops and shock the market. The attack occurred simultaneously with a shorting algorithm that launched around 1-2 hours after the open.
Going forward I expect these attacks to occur even more often due to the court case coming to a close. Basically, short traders now have free reign to publish false information without fear of prosecution in the USA. All shorts have to do is call it opinion.
The only hope for SVM is that the PM market overwhelms the shorts with new money or SVM actually implements their stock buybacks, which to date has yet to occur to the frustration of many longs.
In summary, is SVM a legitimate company making money and delivering value to shareholders?
Yes, however the stock is under attack by liars and thieves,the question is who wins and what is the timing?
You're welcome, looks like a "possible" bottom in the GDXJ and SVM.
30%-40% of the downtrend for SVM was Jon Carnes related and associated hedge fund HFT shorting. I've followed the stock closely for almost two years, on up days, SVM would under perform as compared to other miners, and on down days, it would over perform to the downside. The stock was being managed by a HFT plain as day when I looked at the daily charts. Once Silver turns and money flows back into the GDXJ, that should be enough to finally overwhelm the HFT bot and JC.
The entire sector sold off today, but a good trade never the less. The GDX/GDXJ is at oversold to levels compare to gold not seen since 2008 or 1999. All the sentiment indexes are at or near all time lows. There will be a bottom soon, but when?
The class action was brought on by Jon Carnes and his lawyer lackies who need work. "To date, from public court documents, only two people representing only 7,000 Company shares initiated the class actions."
The main reason to bring the lawsuit is to cause FUD and allow Jon Carnes to continue to short the stock to make $. It's really that simple.
The lawsuit has no merit and most likely will be dismissed.
With the updated forecast provided by Silvercorp due to the delay in the GC mine, .45-.50 is more on target. SVM is a steal at today's prices if you can stomach more downside. In a year SVM will trade much higher if Silver recovers.
Then you think this stock buyback is good and will further enhance sh value?
Yes, the stock buyback will help greatly since the stock had been artificially suppressed versus its peers. It really comes down to earnings. If SVM can achieve .55+ EPS next fiscal, that should only add to SVM's ability to grown and give back to shareholders (stock buy backs and increased dividends.)
Time and earnings will tell, also, SVM is implementing an new mining technique that should save them around .07(.est) per share once fully implemented. It's around a 30% cost savings per MT compared to what they are doing now.
So there are some upside to the .55 projected EPS.
"A mining company building sh value through repurchases of stock instead of producing more output to increase value. Especially with the price of PM's what they are now and expected to go higher in the future."
Not sure what you're getting at? SVM has invested massively in cap ex and that's about to pay off this year with the opening of GC and the Ying expansions.
SVM Fiscal Year 2014 At A Glance
Production is forecast to increase 64.4%.
Production is increasing from 5.9 million oz (FY 2013) (March 31, 2012 to March 31, 2013) to 9.7 million ozs for FY 2014 ( (March 31, 2013 to March 31, 2014)
Operating cashflow is forecast to increase 55% or $88MM
Operating Cashflow FY2013: $160MM
Operating Cashflow FY2014: $248MM
Capital Expenditures are forecast to drop -54% or $41MM
Capital Expenditures FY2013: $90MM
Operating Cashflow FY2014: $49MM
Also, analyst estimates are for a increase of earnings of over 100% from FY2013 to FY2014
Keep in mind SVM's fiscal 2014 starts March 31'st 2013.
EPS FY2013: .26(Est.)
EPS FY2014: .55 (Range of .52-.61 EPS)
In summary Silvercorp is setting up for some spectacular growth starting March 31st 2013
Call The IR Now: Make Your Voice Heard
I want to start off first in reiterate that Silvercorp has some of the best fundamentals in the mining industry and will recover eventually, however Silvercorp over the past 12 months has FAILED when it comes to investor perception and public relations. The PASSIVE nature displayed by Silvercorp during this time MUST CHANGE otherwise the current massive UNDER PERFORMANCE will continue!
The current marketing/sales strategy of going to mining conferences and releasing the occasional PR is without a doubt a dismal failure, just look at the stock price. This might be OK for normal market conditions, but SVM is not under "normal" market conditions, it's under attack and losing!
The enemies of Silvercorp now short without fear because they are emboldened by Silvercorps PASSIVE nature. When the Little AL short attacks started, SVM was much more aggressive and the stock price was able to recover as a result. Then the price of Silver collapsed and along with it SVMs earnings. Then to make matters worse, SVM stopped being aggressive against those which would do SVM harm. Over the past year Silvercorps stock price has been beaten down and only the most ardent longs remain.
So what's the above rant getting at?
Silvercorp needs to change its Public Perception and PR strategy NOW!!
1. Call and Email Jonathan Hackshaw, let him know that we as shareholders are NOT HAPPY with Silvercorp's nonperformance and PR passivity over the past year.
2. SVM needs to buy back shares to support the stock and put some fear into the hearts of shorts who have grown arrogant over the past year+. SVM is cash rich, right?
3.SVM needs to be more visible, think interviews with major PM investor blogs or news letters.
4. End the cone of silence imposed by lawyers, these lawyers have yet to make SVM a dime!
I'll leave you with this quote from Billionaire investor Mark Cuban:
"But the entire experience taught me quite a bit about how the market works. For years on end a company’s price can have less to do with a company’s real prospects than with the excitement it and its supporters are able to generate among investors. ........... Brokers and bankers market and sell stocks. Unless demand can be manufactured, the stock will decline." (Mark Cuban)
If you're a fed up investor like I am, I encourage you to call Jonathan Hackshaw and let your voice be heard. If you don't, you only have yourself to blame as the stock continues to slide.
Contact Info:
jhackshaw@silvercorp.ca
1-888-224-1881
SVM Fiscal Year 2014 At A Glance
Production is forecast to increase 64.4%.
Production is increasing from 5.9 million oz (FY 2013) (March 31, 2012 to March 31, 2013) to 9.7 million ozs for FY 2014 ( (March 31, 2013 to March 31, 2014)
Operating cashflow is forecast to increase 55% or $88MM
Operating Cashflow FY2013: $160MM
Operating Cashflow FY2014: $248MM
Capital Expenditures are forecast to drop -54% or $41MM
Capital Expenditures FY2013: $90MM
Operating Cashflow FY2014: $49MM
Also, analyst estimates are for a increase of earnings of over 100% from FY2013 to FY2014
Keep in mind SVM's fiscal 2014 starts March 31'st 2013.
EPS FY2013: .26(Est.)
EPS FY2014: .55 (Range of .52-.61 EPS)
In summary Silvercorp is setting up for some spectacular growth starting March 31st 2013
Go to Marcum website you will see they are accountants and Auditors. If you have any knowledge of SEC compliance you would know that an AUDITED financial report is manditory for SEC compliance
It should be noted that Rich fully admitted in the 10K that TARM had failed as a producer, but instead of being stubborn and trying to continue the operation he recognized his strengths and weaknesses and regrouped the team around a strategy that is obviously working, JV’ing and acquiring properties. I believe TARM/TRGD/ADIT have turned the corner with this new business model and this latest and very notable partnership (Yamana Gold). With gold, silver, and base metals near all time highs we could not ask for better market conditions to move forward with JV’ing model.
It's nice to have some good news. It will take some time for this to play out, but this is a good first step for TARM/ADIT/TRGD. The Yamana name gives credibility to TARM/ADIT/TRGD operations and a much needed confidence boost to investors. I expect the news to be priced in over the next several weeks as TARM/ADIT/TRGD gear up their PR operations.
GLTA,
JNG
It's nice to have some good news. It will take some time for this to play out, but this is a good first step for TARM/ADIT/TRGD. The Yamana name gives credibility to TARM/ADIT/TRGD operations and a much needed confidence boost to investors. I expect the news to be priced in over the next several weeks as TARM/ADIT/TRGD gear up their PR operations.
GLTA,
JNG
We love you too Mamona, do you enjoy getting your jollies on message boards just to prove how intelligent you are to us unwashed masses? I'm very perplexed as to why to stick around a supposed cult, is it to point and laugh or do you not have a life outside the internet? Why not sale your TARM/TRGD and find something more productive to do? Perhaps you are a masochist?
Mamonas Picture?
Good move, better safe than sorry given the supposedly large short position or naked short position in TRGD.
Worse case, you get in a long drawn out legal battle to get your shares if you have a crooked broker (unlikely, but it could happen). This happens when there is a failure to deliver and there are no more "real" shares left to purchase on the open market, it does not happen very often since companies rarely use physical shares, but better safe then sorry.
Just get a record of them telling you they will honor your physical shares request for the TARM buyout.
JNG
My advice to call them and ask, but make sure you have something in writing or in recorded form them just encase.
JNG
I called Trade King and I have them on tape stating that they do have my physical certificates and they will send them to me if I request them or send them to TARM when the merger is completed. I suggest everyone else does the same.
Call Your Brokers
TRGD Longs, please be sure to call your broker and get in writing or on tape that they have your physical certificates. Don't get caught in a failure to deliver scenario due to naked shorting and crooked brokers.
JNG
Call Your Brokers
TRGD Longs, please be sure to call your broker and get in writing or on tape that they have your physical certificates. Don't get caught in a failure to deliver scenario due to naked shorting and crooked brokers.
JNG
Another El Tigre Valuation From "Newbie" via my e-mail (a great guy to talk to!):
If the tailings produce consistently for 16 years for a total of $320 MUSD, another way would be to consider the value of a 16 year annuity. At 3% interest, , present value of a 16 year annuity would be about 12.6/16 of total. So if the $320 MUSD is mined in 16 years, present value would be $252 MUSD => $4 per share.
At 5% interest, present value is 10.8/16 => $216 MUSD => $3.46 per share.
At 7% interest, present value is 9.45/16 => $189 MUSD => $3 per share.
Another El Tigre Valuation From "Newbie" via my e-mail (a great guy to talk to!):
If the tailings produce consistently for 16 years for a total of $320 MUSD, another way would be to consider the value of a 16 year annuity. At 3% interest, , present value of a 16 year annuity would be about 12.6/16 of total. So if the $320 MUSD is mined in 16 years, present value would be $252 MUSD => $4 per share.
At 5% interest, present value is 10.8/16 => $216 MUSD => $3.46 per share.
At 7% interest, present value is 9.45/16 => $189 MUSD => $3 per share.
See: http://www.studyfinance.com/common/table4.pdf
This approach for the tailings project suggests an increase in present value of TARM shares by $3-4 per share. And it would be more toward the $4 end (or even a bit higher) since the high grade ore would be processed first, getting almost all the tailings value out in 10 years not in 16 years. And in actuality it would probably be worth more than that to the company because it would provide near-term cash flow enabling capital purchases so production rates at other sites are increased substantially.
I'm valuing El Tigre at $320 million NET profit for TARM, you can check out the spreadsheet to see the reasoning I used. Since the project is a tailing operation, no hard rock mining needs to take place. I'm assuming a new mill might need to be built, but I've included that in my operating cost. Also, since the tailings are already mined the tons per day of processing should be much higher, think around 300-500 tons per day if they are able to get enough money to purchase the correct equipment or find a JV partner. So what does this mean for the share price. If TARM processes 500 tons per day on average 365 a year, that's 182,500 tons per year or 16.43 years of production. That's $19.47 million a year in Net profit split among 64.5 million shares after the TRGD acquisition or about .30 a share. Add a multiple of 5 or 10 as long as the metals are being replaced by other deals or property acquisitions it's a good estimate that El Tigre will add $1.5-$3.00 to the price of TARM
JNG
https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0AobLlTcTy2D0dEFBdVFPS1RULXlSS3JwX0VxVExFOEE&hl=en&output=html
I'm valuing El Tigre at $320 million NET profit for TARM, you can check out the spreadsheet to see the reasoning I used. Since the project is a tailing operation, no hard rock mining needs to take place. I'm assuming a new mill might need to be built, but I've included that in my operating cost. Also, since the tailings are already mined the tons per day of processing should be much higher, think around 300-500 tons per day if they are able to get enough money to purchase the correct equipment or find a JV partner. So what does this mean for the share price. If TARM processes 500 tons per day on average 365 a year, that's 182,500 tons per year or 16.43 years of production. That's $19.47 million a year in Net profit split among 64.5 million shares after the TRGD acquisition or about .30 a share. Add a multiple of 5 or 10 as long as the metals are being replaced by other deals or property acquisitions it's a good estimate that El Tigre will add $1.5-$3.00 to the price of TARM
JNG
https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0AobLlTcTy2D0dEFBdVFPS1RULXlSS3JwX0VxVExFOEE&hl=en&output=html
Thanks Sam Dan, I've added the corrected numbers to the New spreadsheet.
Spreadsheet Update
With the merger it looks like both TRGD and TARM shareholders benefit greatly.
TARM Goes from 61 million shares outstanding to 20.1 million shares outstanding. This means we could easily see a $10 share price for TARM in the next 6 months to a year IF they can get the mill producing 200+ tons a day (very doable). Check out the new versus old spreadsheets to see just how dramatic the cancellation of 40 million + shares can be. I believe $5-$7 dollars (more like $6 or $7) is in the cards this year if the deal goes through for TARM and TRGD as long as TARM hits 200+ tons per day on average the last two months of the year.
JNG
NEW: https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0AobLlTcTy2D0dEFBdVFPS1RULXlSS3JwX0VxVExFOEE&hl=en&output=html
OLD: http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tj3ufr5Me6n2jzC8fjlwUPg&output=html
BTW, I just got in from traveling all day (very tired), so forgive me if I'm not 100% correct today, but I think I am.
Spreadsheet Update
With the merger it looks like both TRGD and TARM shareholders benefit greatly.
TARM Goes from 61 million shares outstanding to 20.1 million shares outstanding. This means we could easily see a $10 share price for TARM in the next 6 months to a year IF they can get the mill producing 200+ tons a day (very doable). Check out the new versus old spreadsheets to see just how dramatic the cancellation of 40 million + shares can be. I believe $5-$7 dollars (more like $6 or $7) is in the cards this year if the deal goes through for TARM and TRGD as long as TARM hits 200+ tons per day on average the last two months of the year.
JNG
NEW: https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0AobLlTcTy2D0dEFBdVFPS1RULXlSS3JwX0VxVExFOEE&hl=en&output=html
OLD: http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tj3ufr5Me6n2jzC8fjlwUPg&output=html
BTW, I just got in from traveling all day (very tired), so forgive me if I'm not 100% correct today, but I think I am.
New TARM German Article Link: http://translate.google.com/translate?js=y&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&layout=1&eotf=1&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.dyor.de%2F&sl=de&tl=en
Notable Statements:
End of October 2009 we presented Tara Minerals, in a U.S. silver-lead and zinc producer At that time, the value stood at about $ 1.30 per share. Since then the stock could climb to
between about $ 3.00 and is currently trading at about $ 1.70.
Tara Minerals - a must in any good raw material depot, especially since the value has since our first idea developed kursmäßig on
The production capacity will be increased shortly by 50% and in about half a year by 275%.
Another strong day of volume....looks like someone knows something.
$20 million revenue divided by 52 million shares = .38
So after expenses are taken out I can see where that goes to .20 EPS.
$100 million revenue divided by 51 million shares = $1.92 after expenses $1.00 EPS
$250 million revenue divided by 51 million shares = $4.81 after expenses $3.00 EPS
So I think he was working with the right numbers.
Just add the P/E you want for $.20, $1, $3, etc.
JNG
$20 million revenue divided by 52 million shares = .38
So after expenses are taken out I can see where that goes to .20 EPS.
$100 million revenue divided by 51 million shares = $1.92 after expenses $1.00 EPS
$250 million revenue divided by 51 million shares = $4.81 after expenses $3.00 EPS
So I think he was working with the right numbers.
Just add the P/E you want for $.20, $1, $3, etc.
JNG
Do your own DD as always...
New analysis TARM $25 Per Share
http://www.cpreports.com/?p=372
Report: July 6, 2010
RAY DIRKS Research (OTC:TARM)
By Ray Dirks
Tara Minerals, a virtually debt-free company now in profitable production of silver, zinc and lead, will soon be mining and marketing gold profitably as well. Tara’s mill is operating at 240 tons per day with about 45% of the production coming from silver, and will increase to 360 tons per day in a few weeks. Concentrate revenue per ton is estimated at $200 plus per ton. Tara has a long-term sales agreement with Glencore International for the concentrate. Tara’s experienced 7-person management team has recently discovered a significant Gold/silver quartz vein near its mine and mill, and recent samples returned an average grade of 10.06 grams per ton gold and 149.85 grams per ton silver. RAY DIRKS Research thinks that the stock, traded over-the-counter under the symbol TARM, will appreciate 14 times over the next year to $25 per share. Unlike many other gold-prospect or mining companies based south of the border in Mexico, Tara has virtually no downside risk.
Current price: $1.70 7/5/2010
Target Price: $25.00
Shares outstanding: 7,000,000
Market Cap approx: $120 million
Earnings per share estimate:
2010 EST – $0.20
2011 EST – $1.00
2012 EST – $3.00
Revenues estimate:
EST 2010 – $20 million
EST 2011 – $100 million
EST 2012 – $250 million
Tara’s Don Romano projects, located near the Chihuahua border in northern Mexico, were acquired in 2006 and 2008 for around $3 million and consist of 4 mining prospects. The Picacho Gold Mine project is located within the Northern Sierra Madre Gold Belt, less than 100 miles south of the U.S. border. Drilling by Tara Minerals included time width intercepts of 11.3m of 15.6 grams per ton gold, 6.1m of 4.7 grams per ton gold and 9.4m of 7.8 grams per ton gold; consequently, there is the likelihood of over 1 million gold ounces to be mined as a high-grade underground mine. The previous owner reported grades averaging 5 grams gold and 15 grams silver using century-old mining techniques
So far an up day with good volume, looks like someone is buying in....
I was told by the PR guy that they are averaging 200+ tons a day in concentrate production....we shall see what happens.
Once we have some numbers to work with I'll update the spreadsheets, overall it's encouraging news that cash is flowing into Tara Minerals at an increasing rate.
JNG
Like I said before, all I care about is results, if TRGD does not have the financials done by August I'll have reason to worry or be angry.
I was told the financials for TRGD to be compliant with the SEC are being completed.