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Fabian..I had to take a cold shower after that post!
Fabian, thank you for pointing out the 2010 analogy. Although I have put the Fractal crowd in the same ilk as the Elliot guys, the similarity of that move to this one is uncanny.
Your point about how far this move can go is well made although I doubt many other than a few of use would agree. Lets keep it that way. Its always better to ride in an uncrowded elevator.
Deleted...didnt see previous post on the Silver Margin Requirements
For those trading China Stocks this site is one you need to bookmark
http://chinabizfocus.com/modules/InvestChina/
CBOE Equity only Put/Call ratio at .40 .. Zeev would have said be careful out there
Fabian..re QE2, this should get your neurons firing. I picked this up off another site so I will not take any credit for any of it but it does make sense and can explain a lot of the unexplainable about QE2.
The Fed said it was going to purchase treasuries but they never said from who.
Dr. Drake commented on that very subject in his Nov. 3rd blog -
. . . . The puzzling part has been why QE2.x is necessary at this time. It came down to "what do THEY know that we don't know?" We've all seen the lists of possible causes existing behind the screen. This in itself has resulted in political and market anxiety. Volatility. Where is the shoe that hasn't dropped yet? Bank failures we don't know about but they do know about? The lists go on.
Why couldn't Bernanke produce a clear explanation? He's the self-admitted expert on curing depressions, but he's been amazingly silent or vague. Why did some peripheral FED officers--KansasCity's Hoenig comes to mind--keep insisting QE wasn't necessary and could be dangerous? It could be part of an overall plan or perhaps he's simply out of the loop. What were the G7, IMF/World Bank, G20, and US/Chinese meetings really all about? Did the looming elections keep a lid on it all?
How does it all fit together? Well, it comes together just the way it looks, as a friend always refers to clues being hidden "right out in the open". One key to "getting it" is the size of QE2.x, of about $900 billion which is close to the size of Chinese Central Bank holdings of US Treasury's. The real deal in QE2.x is that China and the US have negotiated to redeem China's T Notes and Bonds over the next six to twelve months during which time there will be a staged, progressive float of the yuan. This deal is the inflation and devaluation the FED thinks we need, the currency float the Treasury and Congress think we need, and the cashing in of their huge hoard of Treasury's the Chinese think they need. This is the equivalent of Roosevelt's resetting the gold price in 1934: greatly devaluing the dollar, and supposedly jump-starting the economy. This is China's long hoped-for gain on their US bonds. This is the capstone of Bernanke's career of studying the 1930's. This will be done, they all hope, in an orderly manner. Only the citizens of the US will suffer an enormous loss of purchasing power! The clear judgement is that these citizens are too dumb to know what's happening to them. Central banks never want us to know.
http://twocents.blogs.com/weblog/2010/11/the-done-deal-qe2x-china-to-cash-in-treasurys-dollar-to-devalue-yuan-rise.html#comments
PR Newswire and BusinessWire News
NanoViricides Inc NNVC:OTC Bulletin Board Market
NanoViricides Announces Dramatic Viral Load Reduction in Lethal In Vivo Influenza Study
BusinessWire
7:00 AM ET
NanoViricides, Inc. (OTC BB: NNVC.OB) (the "Company") reports that its optimized FluCide(TM) drug candidates achieved dramatic reduction in viral load within the lungs of animals infected with a lethal dose of H1N1 influenza virus.
The Company has previously announced that these optimized FluCide drug candidates demonstrated dramatically improved survival in this animal study. We now report that there was good correlation between viral load reduction and the length of survival.
The most effective FluCide candidate demonstrated a fif teen-fold (15X) greater viral load reduction as compared to Tamiflu(r) (Roche), and a thirty-fold (30X) greater viral load reduction as compared to untreated animals. Tamiflu demonstrated a viral load reduction of only twofold (2X) compared to the untreated animals in this high infection, lethality study. The viral load is a measure of the amount of infectious influenza virus in the lungs of infected animals. This profound decrease in viral load is consistent with the observed substantial increase in length of survival upon nanoviricide treatment. The Company previously reported that animals treated with this FluCide candidate survived for as long as 18.1 days on average, compared with only 7.8 days for Tamiflu treated animals. A survival length of 21 days would be considered indefinite survival in this animal model.
The studies were conducted by Dr. Krishna Menon, PhD, VMD, MRCS, at KARD Scientific, MA. One million virus particles of Influenza A Strain A/WS/33 (H1N1) were aspirated directly into the lungs of mice. A repeat infection was performed at 22 hrs. This influenza model was designed to be uniformly fatal in 100% of the infected, untreated animals within 5 days after infection. Treatment with both FluCide candidates and Tamiflu commenced 24 hours after the initial viral infection. Tamiflu was administered orally twice daily at 20mg/kg (i.e. 40mg/kg/day) while the nanoviricides were intravenous injections at 100mg/kg every 48 hrs.
"Treatment with the Nanoviricide compounds resulted in a profound reduction in viral load. Other overt parameters of virus infection were similarly decreased. In addition, survival time was significantly increased," said Krishna Menon, PhD, President of KARD Scientific.
The nanoviricides have been well tolerated with no overt adverse effects observed even in animals treated for more than 2 weeks. The Company, therefore, believes that dosage of the nanoviricides can be further increased to achieve greater levels of effectiveness. Additional data related to various parameters including histology and cytokines are pending from this study. The Company plans to report on the same as the datasets are analyzed.
About NanoViricides:
NanoViricides, Inc. (www.nanoviricides.com) is a development stage company that is creating special purpose nanomaterials for viral therapy. The Company's novel nanoviricide(R) class of drug candidates are designed to specifically attack enveloped virus particles and to dismantle them. The Company is developing drugs against a number of viral diseases including H1N1 swine flu, H5N1 bird flu, seasonal Influenza, HIV, oral and genital Herpes, viral diseases of the eye including EKC and herpes kera titis, Hepatitis C, Rabies, Dengue fever, and Ebola virus, among others.
This press release contains forward-looking statements that reflect the Company's current expectation regarding future events. Actual events could differ materially and substantially from those projected herein and depend on a number of factors. Certain statements in this release, and other written or oral statements made by NanoViricides, Inc. are "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. You should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements since they involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors whi ch are, in some cases, beyond the Company's control and which could, and likely will, materially affect actual results, levels of activity, performance or achievements. The Company assumes no obligation to publicly update or revise these forward-looking statements for any reason, or to update the reasons actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in these forward-looking statements, even if new information becomes available in the future. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the company's expectations include, but are not limited to, those factors that are disclosed under the heading "Risk Factors" and elsewhere in documents filed by the company from time to time with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission and other regulatory authorities. Although it is not possible to predict or identify all such factors, th ey may include the following: demonstration and proof of principle in pre-clinical trials that a nanoviricide is safe and effective; successful development of our product candidates; our ability to seek and obtain regulatory approvals, including with respect to the indications we are seeking; the successful commercialization of our product candidates; and market acceptance of our products.
SOURCE: NanoViricides, Inc.
NanoViricides, Inc. Amanda Schuon, 310-550-7200 info@nanoviricides.com
Business Wire is a registered trademark of Business Wire. PR Newswire is a registered trademark of PR Newswire Association, Inc.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/NanoViricides-Announces-bw-434013559.html?x=0&.v=1
This is all you need to know http://goo.gl/CfB4v
Another Sunday Another Sector Play...Let's look at grains http://bit.ly/ccdzkE
"Being a Chameleon" and "Anatomy of a Trade" new blog post http://bit.ly/9vFpBg Enjoy!
Fabian...I am fully with you on that. The missing ingredient in technical analysis is often relative strength. That's what separates the real winners from the mediocre ones. You have mentioned it several times... the good traders do not have CNBC on at all. There is nothing of value there. Many say they are making money by trading the news off of it. I doubt it. Thats why every time they lose they say it was a "small position" and never when they win it was a small position. News is created to match the price of a stock or the movement of the stock market and not vice versa, unless it is earnings and even then you need to know what is going on under the covers. News and many times earnings surprises are already reflected in the chart well before the news is public..how many times do we say "sell the news"? This also applies to news that is a "surprise" to the trader on the street.
"Stop paying attention to macro issues. Are you a macro trader? Then why are you worried about macro issues? All I care about is whether the stock I buy today or tomorrow will make 20% or 50% move.
Macro themes are worth a rat's ass if you are looking for a 20% or 50% move. Stock make 20% or 50% move due to company or sector specific catalyst. Unless you are trading 100 million plus account size stop worrying about macro themes when making trading decisions.
Mass media is obsessed with macro issues and if you see lot of trading blogosphere it spends 95% of its time masturbating over macro issues. If I want my blog to be read by largest number of people I will pontificate everyday on macro issues.
Scratch below the surface and look at what returns all these luminaries who are pontificating on macro issues are getting. If you want to figure that out subscribe to stock picking service offered by the most popular market blog or another popular blog which puts out pretty graphs and pie charts of all kinds of macro stuff daily. You will get lots of very well presented macro graphs and pie charts which will give you great mental satisfaction. And some shitty stock picks based on their macro themes which do not beat the street. So If these people are so smart in macro themes, why are they not making money.
Macro factor do not manifest themselves in days or weeks. Just because somebody says there will be hyperinflation, it does not mean it will happen tomorrow (if at all it happens).
If you are losing sleep over issues like: US deficit Inflation Hyperinflation Deflation Dollar depreciation/appreciation aging population health-care cost inflation underfunded pension geopolitics
Stop trading and start running for the job of President of USA."
** well written post from a very good trader who runs http://stockbee.blogspot.com/
SPX road map send out on Wednesday following plan. Watch the lower rising trend line. 5th wave up now?
http://fsc.bz/5du
Claud is back after being gone for several months. This site is a must visit. It gets updated each weekend
http://mysite.verizon.net/vze122zqp/
Great advice Lee... many years ago I was taught that if you dont like taking the first loss you really aren't going to like taking the second loss. In my experience there is nothing worse than holding on to a trade gone bad. It clouds your mind and prevents you from making clear decisions on other trades. Its amazing how once you take the loss and accept it you can quickly refocus and quickly recover.
I hope everyone is having a good weekend. The fun starts again soon
As Zeev would have said...with an Equity Only Put/Call ratio at .51 things are a little too euphoric. Be careful out there.
Thanks Lee if AER gets through 12 I will like it too pooooosh
AER, went long before the close at 11.23 looks good here http://fsc.bz/3VY
glad you are having fun with CREG Tuna...I think its got a couple more points in it in the very near term. One new PR and off we go. I like how it behaved today digesting the move up
Tuna thanks for the CREG info..its a long term hold for me so I didnt realize it was hitting the Nazzy on Monday thats great news!!!
LEAP nice breakout of pattern today
CREG china stock up over 60% since mentioning/buying in December..new highs with much more to go me thinks
I Hear its now referred to as the ChIBD 100
Thank you for that Hap. I cant believe its been 2 years since our dear friend and mentor left us. I still think of him and his teachings every day as I trade. He is dearly missed.
Fabian...isn't this where you are supposed to point out that the Equity Put/Call Ratio is at .47
Zeev often used a phrase in all time frames "new lows beget new lows" and conversely "new highs beget new highs"
Simple and accurate.
I love the humor sprinkled in this post Fabian lol...But, I am sorry for your loss...here is what I use to make those decisions
http://web.ics.purdue.edu/~ssanty/cgi-bin/eightball.cgi
OT: Lee, funny story and a warning. My neighbor went to do a self install of a doggie invisible fence. He installed the box on the wall of his garage, then ran the wire around the perimeter of his property weighing it down with rocks so he could test it out before digging to bury the wire. He ran out of daylight and decided to finish the job the next day.
Well, that night we had a thunderstorm and his wire was hit by lightning because it was fully exposed on the surface. It traveled through the wire and into his garage and blew the whole doggie fence controller box off the wall leaving a big black mark on the wall. Its a good thing his house didnt catch fire. Needless to say he had the pros come in to do an install 2 weeks later. Better get it done quickly
Lee, that was a great movie. Now that you mention it, maybe I will watch it instead of the Oscars.
Speaking of interesting phrases I always enjoy a few terms used by traders on boards and in chats like...
"Going into XYZ tiny"
What the heck is tiny? If you are Warren Buffet maybe tiny is only a couple hundred thousand shares. There are probably some that trade here with a 1 share lot. Is tiny less than 1 share.Gekko would shutter at the thought of "tiny"
and my all time favorite overused phrase ever..
"In XYZ with a tight stop"
What the heck is a tight stop? I can assume its smaller than a loose stop but is it a percentage, is it a dollar amount, is it a penny? I hope its not too tight that it doesn't even cover the spread.
All that runs through my mind when I read those terms is the trader has no clue and no plan why they are taking the trade and the risk is more than the reward. I guess that if the trade goes against me I am safe because I went in tiny and had a tight stop.
Thanks for the movie idea and enjoy the weather. It feels like Red Sox weather in Boston. Need to get out for fresh air again today.
CR..have you been to the Zeev's Turnips Merchandise store? Its in one of the articles in the iBox on this board
http://www.cafepress.com/cp/store.aspx?s=zturnips
No hats but the boxers are comfortable to trade in all day lol
Have a nice weekend
China pup watch for pop list
1. hpj
2. sorl
3. kndi
4. jaso
5. csr
6. ssw
7. trit
8. spu
Nice close on China pup SPU today. Should pop tomorrow http://fsc.bz/3DJ
SPX update video...good stuff from GSZimm. Short and sweet
http://screenr.com/JAh
Intraday SPX analysis video from my friend GSZimm..hes very good http://screenr.com/TWh
Fabian thanks for the ASIA idea. I just pulled 1.10 out of it pre market thanks to you and thanks to Goldman Sachs putting it on their Conviction Buy list with a target of 31 today. Thats my sale at 25.56 I have enough swings so it was a short term play for me. Good luck to all as it moves higher.
Ill do a CR and post the confirmation
Filled Sell 1000 ASIA Limit 25.56 -- -- 08:09:17 03/01/10
DrFeelgood, first thanks for all your posts. I have been an NNVC holder for some time now and look forward to them being a success.
I am curious. Where do you get real time short interest and sale information?
Thanks Newly you make a good point. Kind of a shot across the bow of some sorts by the Fed. My initial reaction had to do with how off base everyone was on the implications of the change in discount rate.But yes, its probably a signal of whats to come.
Have a nice weekend and thank you for your thoughts.
Ignore all the hype and spin just pay attention to the market. This article on Joe Fahmy's blog keeps things in perspective. Its a must read IMHO
http://joefahmy.com/2010/02/19/what-to-look-for-on-friday/
By the way, changing the discount rate is a non-event. Lowering it in the middle of the crisis was a good move to solve a short term temporary liquidity problem right in the middle of the crisis. Discount-window borrowings have dropped 78% since October 2008. At this point there are so few Banks going to the Discount window its a non-event. Changing this rate does nothing to the economy. Why is everyone making this into a global event? How many even know what the Discount Rate applies to?
Remember its not the news but the reaction to the news. Don't panic and dramatize like all the bloggers and the news folks. Its the reaction in the markets to the news. Perhaps this won't even be talked about after the weekend.If they want to take the market down on this news then so be it and I will adjust accordingly. I just wouldn't get wrapped up in the hype and panic today.
Quick...call Fabian..his main man Le' Fly just went to 50% cash this morning..ooo eee ooo
Maybe that means we should go long
One thing you can ALWAYS count on cannabis is that every day we will COTC Close-on-the-close