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"Gorilla(Rich) investing the way I do is not for the faint of heart. I believe in the old cliche "put all your eggs in one basket, and watch the basket very close". This phrase was coined originally by Warren Buffet who has weathered many storms.
I currently have a decent sized portfolio but have concentrated mostly on China agriculture as a growing middle class will definately increase standard of living thus 70% in ckgt along with 10% siaf.pk with 15% in srry.ob which is predomianately in waste removal and recycling which I believe to grow huge in the next 3-5 years."
Wow...
I thought I was the only one with a philosophy like that. I guess I have a high risk tolerance and a lot of patience, but then I believe in the picks. If they only double, I'm okay with that, but I think much more is likely in the long term...
My portfolio isn't large (less than 100k), split between 10% CKGT and 90% SIAF. Interesting that your weighting is almost the opposite. But then it could have a lot to do with our entry points and average cost basis in each. I was late to CKGT and earlier in SIAF compared to current levels, so maybe I perceive the upside differently..
IMHO, I don't get a sense that management is trying to screw shareholders. Even if some of the PR's were put out deliberately to increase volume, enabling Belmont to cash out, I'm okay with that. First, the whole Belmont thing appears to be meant for the initial phase, funding to generate up-front capital and volume, exposure. That's been accomplished. Belmont needs to recoup their money, in order to continue what they do, funding other new companies with startup capital. We are definitely no longer in Phase 1, which is a positive sign all around.
I don't believe management is dumping at all. The dumping was by other parties everyone recognized to be short-term stockholders, and they served their purpose. High insider ownership still exists to my knowledge, meaning management is interested in higher share prices even more than we are.
However, I like the conservative approach. Continuing to issue PR's to hype the company may increase near-term recognition, but it can backfire when the same mo-mo traders get easily bored or frustrated. A more stable ramping up of the share price based on fundamentals would seem more legitimate and enticing to the long term investor, or at least to people like me. I'm willing to hold this thing for 2-5 years, more if it explodes. What it does in the meantime is relatively inconsequential in strictly price terms, provided the overall theses haven't changed.
I'm very encouraged by everything I've seen so far on the company's behalf. It is possible that I'm a Kool-Aid drinker, but I don't think so. I buy and hold, buy some more, haven't sold a single share to date, and am heavily invested, percentage-wise. Also extremely patient, and tolerant of 25% short term drops (they mean bargains).
I'm also okay with some of you people exiting for "greener pastures". Good luck, in all sincerity. I hope I can afford to pick up all the slack I want.
Manipulation can and does happen at times, but there are also market forces and crowd psychology to consider. Management cannot control me wanting to buy nor your desire to sell. In the long run, I think the truth about intentions and value becomes very evident, which is more reason for me to appreciate a company who has a long-term approach. Volatility that stems from perceived desperate measures makes me suspicious.
Joe,
I don't have a problem with the name thing. My perspective is that it is a bigger cultural phenomenon than just the business world. Many Chinese who are interested in international relations take familiar Western sounding names informally. I think it may have something to do with the cultural way they graciously defer to others.
I used to write to a girl in Shanghai who went by Jessica. Her real given name started with a J sound, but perhaps she and others are self-conscious with the sing song way their names sound to foreigners.
As a side note, it does disturb me a bit to read constant derogatory comments about the management etc because the stock action is not keeping up with hopes or forecasts. I am heavily invested for the long term, so obviously have some bias, but am willing to be patient because I see the potential.
There is middle ground between crooks and geniuses. Market forces and the psychology of us investors & flippers all plays a huge role. I believe in management's operations prowess on Chinese soil, not necessarily their ability to keep the stock on a daily march upward on this continent.
I do understand your impatience, and it also stings to think someone took advantage of you. If you have no personal stake in it any longer, please don't attempt to continually discourage others solely on the basis of innuendo or gut feelings. However, I'll intently examine unfavorable evidence, and be grateful for being alerted.
Many prophecies are self-fulfilling for no other reason than people react to those beliefs in mass numbers. I'd rather choose another prophecy in that case.
Best wishes~
Rato,
Highest conviction holdings:
1. SIAF, overwhelmingly
I first bought at 1.03, averaged up, averaged down, picking up every time i find loose change. Haven't sold a share, long-term holding. Too overweight to mention exactly how much.
CKGT honorable mention, nothing else close at the moment, though I've been in/out of a few you listed.
Top 15 List: nice to see CREG and LLEN almost doubled since Nov.27. CNYD holding the red flag, will change soon I hope.
The Chinese like red flags, or so I hear.
I agree that he would have no problem with investing. Consider the parable of the talents, how the man who simply buried the money to return it safely was criticized, while the others multiplied their amounts through effort and skill.
On the other hand, money can become worshipped by those who can't pursue anything else and are consumed by making more. Jesus scorned the money changers and drove them out of the temple.
All things in moderation... keep your perspective on what's truly important, and use your time/money wisely. One day wealth as we know it will be worthless. Souls are destined for eternity.
"If he were walking the earth today, he could have his own board on IHUB to discuss his purpose here and he would be the perfect moderator. I think he would have no problem investing in the stock market and I guarantee you that he wouldn't be pumping (JBII - Hmmmmmm ...... ring a bell ?), a stock that's overvalued my many millions and hyped higher than Heaven. As far as a rich man entering the kingdom of God (those not in need IMO), I personally do everything I can to make as much money as possible so that I can give back a greater portion to him ......."
OT- Tax help, for the active traders in here:
Am quite certain that I'm not handling the tax reporting of my trades very efficiently, since 2009 was my first year investing outside a 401k or ESPP.
I only made a few hundred trades last year, and Turbo Tax Premier has been unable to import my brokerage account info so far. Can anyone offer me a smooth way to handle the complicated data entry with multiple lot sizes/times/prices? Is Quicken the way to go?
This Tiger stuff is way overblown. I agree he was wrong, just as millions of other men often go astray. That is not an excuse, just a recognition of human tendencies. Even Christians face daily temptations; no one is immune because of one's standards.
What's most interesting to me is the hypocrisy in his treatment versus how the public treated (and still views) Bill Clinton. How is that not a dysfuntional marriage, yet that celebrity gets a pass, even encouraging nods from the average Joe Sixpack?
And Tiger may be a "role model" whose image is worth $$, but he is in that position because he's good at something this country reveres, and we put him on a pedestal where he's bound to disappoint in some way eventually. We are as much to blame for having unrealistic expectations of a guy who happens to be good at golf and have charisma. Who among us would do much better in his shoes? Maybe part of the viciousness against him is because people are envious of him having such a wife?
IMO it's just as wrong to publicly dismember him as it was for him to screw up. It is not my place to know his reasons nor pass judgment. I just hope he finds the fulfillment he seems to seek.
You have a point.
I copied my definition from Dictionary.com, which did not list anything else substantially different. Following my post, I googled the term and read various references detailing the 14 points that you mention.
It is arguable to what extent any authoritarian regime could be called Fascist, based on that list. Granted there are worse examples in history.
My whole point is that fascism points to an overbearing government restricting or controlling society, markets, etc behind the scenes perharps. It is not free market corporations rising above the power or influence of the government.
China might embody more of those 14 traits than the USA now, but hopefully neither country continues to that extreme.
I agreed with your first 4 words regarding Obama's America.
And then you display a confusion about what Fascism means. Corporations do not rule in such a state; they are merely puppets controlled by government. It is only a superficial illusion of freedom.
Obama has rapidly assumed control over many private sectors in an attempt to consolidate power under the government, which is what results in a dictatorship.
fas·cism /'fæ??z?m/ Pronunciation [fash-iz-uhm]
–noun 1. (sometimes initial capital letter) a governmental system led by a dictator having complete power, forcibly suppressing opposition and criticism, regimenting all industry, commerce, etc., and emphasizing an aggressive nationalism and often racism.
rato,
Excellent perspective. Thanks for the numeric example. Rumor has it that patience is a virtue.
HIRU -
Guess the 30 day GTC sell order at your target price works wonders sometimes. Managed to unload 15K at double my buy price, for no apparent reason. All out of it now, was only in it for a quick trade or two.
Suppose someone messed up and placed a market buy order?
Now buying SIAF with the proceeds is almost like turning back the clock a month.
OK for SIAF to finally rev the engine, because I can't buy much more!
It sure is nice to see my confidence and belief in this company beginning to be rewarded. I found this on the ECSC board in the .90s and couldn't get a major stake until 1.03.
Currently almost 50% of my portfolio is in this single company, and I almost wish it were more. But patience is a virtue, and I gotta have room for other gems like CKGT and TSTC, etc.
How on earth does anyone manage to keep 30% in cash with dirt cheap stock like this lying around?
OT: Yahoo News story on China birth rate and marriage:
Skewed China birth rate to leave 24 mln men single
Story of passing interest, but there's possibly an angle for making money for a savvy investor with foresight.
Either the government will pull some strings, or millions of individuals will begin to solve this problem in some practical way, IMO.
Can we think of those solutions, and find companies that will meet the demand?
Photo Caption: Chinese couples parade during a mass wedding ceremony at a shopping mall in Beijing in 2006. More than 24 million Chinese men of marrying age could find themselves without spouses in 2020, state media has reported, citing a study that blamed sex-specific abortions as a major factor.
(AFP/Str)
I'm not sure whether I agree with it or not.
On the one hand, I don't think it costs all that much, especially for those of us who realize profits from ECSC.
On the other hand, most of the junk posts I have to sift through seem to come from a handful of regulars who are taking a break from DD just to blather. Speed reading helps to decide how fast I need to click through to the next message.
NOTE: Preceding text qualifies as blather.
Rames / RE: ECSC Top Picks voting:
I agree with most of the proposals I've read, and I understand the need to suppress potential manipulation in a vote.
Regarding "lurkers", I think all who regularly read/participate in this forum ought to be eligible. However, you should be aware that many people who never intend to post for whatever reason (limited knowledge or time, don't want to add to board clutter) have no incentive for creating an account. At least until now.
An example is myself: my account is not yet a month old, but I began reading this board 3-4 months earlier. Whether I qualify as a voter is up to the powers that be. I also recognize that it takes time to earn one's stripes in many cases.
Would have loved to see that..
My brother told me that a similar stunt happened once at a home game he attended at the Naval Academy (2001 grad). Someone flew over the field lengthwise, below the top of stadium, only in a jet. Apparently he had to pull a steep climb to exit, and might have lightly barbecued a few folks, but nothing serious.
Don't know what happened to the jockey.
Good info, thanks for the education.
Do you mean CYXN?
I would like to recommend CXYN for the under $1 list.
CHIO
I would like someone to provide an informed evaluation of this company and/or stock. I have not seen it mentioned at all on this board. It last closed at 0.70 and qualifies as a sub-$1 spec stock, but I have questions about its quality and potential. TIA
Makes you wonder why on earth anyone would ever be content in the S&P. For me, anything below 5% daily gain is a yawner.
ECSC is better than high-stakes blackjack.
HIRU, CHCG
FYI - Most recent update of Stock4Today (for day traders):
Listed HIRU & CHCG among eight OTC daily picks on Wed, Dec 23 before the bell. Site does not focus on Chinese stocks.
Top pick of the day that day was HIRU.
http://sites.google.com/site/stock4today/
GFRE
Broke 52 week high before 10:00 EST today. It's on my watchlist, but haven't done any DD.
HIRU
Bought 20K already myself, also at .09, not opposed to rolling the dice now and then.
SBAY, Traderfan
You can say what you want about SBAY or CRANE or whoever but the stock is rather cheap at these levels. Needless to say I'm not a huge fan anymore (like I was) but I still think it's got a lot of potential for the next 18 months.
I tend to agree with you about it being cheap. I had a big stake in them for awhile, but had to move on to other opportunities and liquidate my investment. Some people have an issue with the CFO, but I don't know enough about him, or know how big of a factor he really is. All I know is the stock seemed to have limited upside compared to others IMO, and that money was burning a hole in my pocket.
SBAY
I'm not sure tax loss selling is a big factor, as it crashed in late October after financing. The Crane Effect might be a bigger reason, IMHO.
Ok, I'm confused..
are we supposed to be copying or undermining? Don't want to be out of step in this..
I think it's a Japanese proverb that says: "the nail that sticks up gets hammered down"...
Another excellent post, rato.
I've been reading you for awhile, and I very much value your intelligent approach and patient temperament, particularly in explaining things so that a novice like myself can more fully grasp the concepts.
I saw this article too. One of possible solutions discussed is adding heating elements:
CSykes,
RE: SIAF vs CNOA
You just mentioned the two companies I wanted to compare with a poll question:
Which do you like better for mid-term, such as end of 2010, for higher PPS?
Does your crystal ball tell you to trade (and/or invest) less in CNOA because of its litigation, or business model? Hard to compare with SIAF's IR lately.
Only thing that I'm vaguely cautious about with SIAF is the same bullish excitement was seen by us in CNOA prior to 3Q earnings, and we got burned from high expectations cutting price in half overnight.
Disclosure: am heavily long in both of them (more CNOA), total of 60% of portfolio between them.
CNOA
Does anyone see near-term growth potential here, to compete with the others I mention below? I had averaged down to about $1.03 after the Q3 crash, and finally gave up and sold 2/3 of it (about 40k), just to get some action in BSPM, CKGT, NEP, TSTC.
Naturally the day after I sold CNOA at .69, it started its run to today's .86.
Second-guessing is a killer. But then I'm still learning from people like you here. Added a few k of JADA and SIAF today though, so still hoping to get my double back and then some. Paid for valuable lessons in 2009.
It's hard to come up with cash when all you find are prospects you want to buy and hold..