Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
JCP: and now it's green (over 23). must have been some con call. probably some serious short covering.
CMG: yep, that's pretty sick. Watching PNRA as getting lumped in with CMG and it's down 5% PM.
BBG: Nat Gas play
http://peaktheories.com/self.php?id=1510
OT: when did stockcharts remove the quick link for iHub? Guess it's been a while since I posted a chart. Thanks bale for the msg on the intro.
S&P: EU Summit Will Be a Yawn
By Abigail F. Doolittle
Interestingly and against the backdrop of investor expectations for a disaster, it seems that the two-day EU summit will be a net neutral on the equity markets when all is said and done in looking at the charts of the S&P.
Showing this likelihood of yet another make-or-break event going bust and meaning very little in the end, and against the backdrop of wide expectations that the meeting of eurozone leaders in Brussels that starts today will be a calamity, is the right side of a Complex Head and Shoulders pattern that shows its right side coiling into a Symmetrical Triangle in hourly form and a Bear Pennant in daily form.
Relative to the Complex H&S, it confirms safely at 1307 for an aggressive target of 1251 but it is the Bear Pennant that suggests it is not this week that will provide the fundamental “what” or the impetus for this pattern to take the index down 6% relatively quickly but next week on some combination of the ECB, ISM and payrolls.
The reason being is the potential coiling of the Symmetrical Triangle within the Bear Pennant appears likely to produce a big decline down toward 1310 today and something that will perpetuate investor fear around a pending EU summit disaster only to bounce back tomorrow to about 1330 and something that would render the EU summit a net neutral on the equity markets as stated above.
From that possible volatile but tightening trading, though, is likely to be a shift out of neutral into a big move down with ISM up before the ECB or payrolls and with the current cadence of the S&P’s coil suggesting that break may come on Monday to provide investors with some fireworks ahead of those to celebrate Independence Day here in the US.
Overall, then, the S&P says that the EU summit will be – another – yawn.
http://www.peaktheories.com/self.php?id=1533
How to trade on Obamacare ruling
...
The so-called individual mandate, which helps fund the provisions of the law, is at the heart of the court battle. Did Congress have the constitutional backing to require everyone to buy health insurance? If the mandate is struck down, that could be a negative for hospitals, which provide a lot of free care for people who walk into their emergency rooms without insurance. The law also had other provisions that help hospitals, including the expansion of Medicaid. If the individual mandate or the entire law is struck down, expect hospital stocks such as HCA Holdings (HCA), Tenet Healthcare (THC), and Community Health Systems (CYH) to fall. On the other hand, the stocks are likely to rally if the law is upheld.
Insurance companies such as UnitedHealth Group (UNH), WellPoint (WLP), and Aetna (AET) have much at stake. If the entire law is thrown out by the court, the managed health care companies would largely turn the clock back to before Obamacare was even being debated. While insurers say they would keep some policies of the act even if it is overturned, the most significant requirements of the law include guarantees that all Americans can buy insurance and that their pre-existing conditions shouldn’t affect the price of a policy. If those two requirements are upheld but the individual mandate is thrown out, that may be problematic for the insurers. If everyone is required to buy insurance, the cost of policies are spread across a larger base. Insurers don’t like the law, overall, because of the edicts on guaranteeing health coverage. If the law is upheld, expect managed care stocks to drop.
“Managed care looks to us like the health care sector most likely to be volatile around the court rulings,” Leerink Swann analysts say in recent report. However, if Obamacare “is struck down in entirety, managed care is the greatest health care stock group beneficiary.”
Health reform was largely viewed as a negative for medical device makers such Medtronic (MDT), St. Jude Medical (STJ), Edwards Lifesciences (EW), and Boston Scientific (BSX) as they incurred new government fees aimed at helping pay for covering the uninsured. What’s more, there was little benefit from the law for these companies. If the law is vacated by the court, these stocks should rise.
Finally, big pharmaceutical makers had a seat at the negotiating table throughout the Obamacare debate and the law was seen as actually helping provide drug insurance coverage to more people. Former Pfizer (PFE) chief Jeffrey Kindler and other big drug execs supported Obama’s reform as long as it was seen as friendly to the pharma industry. That said, drug stocks may rise initially if reform is overturned as some investors view a repeal of the law as positive for all health care stocks. However, overturning the law isn’t a clear-cut positive for the pharma companies.
Read more: http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/politics-and-regulation/articles/health-reform-supreme-court-unitedhealth-wellpoint/6/27/2012/id/42037#ixzz1z0bj0OtZ
FB: how about some commentary . Liking the rounding bottom, cup and handle, or what?
Nat Gas: nice charting and technical analysis on Nat Gas here.
http://dragonflycap.com/2012/06/27/signals-lining-up-to-buy-natural-gas/
Note: Seasonality for the next several sessions, through the July 4th holiday, are strongly bullish with the SPX being negative only three of the last 22 times during this time period.
http://www.advicetrade.com/nightlyreport/Short-Term-Oversold-Conditions-Lead-to-a-Modest-Bounce-20120626840.html
OT: Nigel Farage: I didn't know who he was until a few days ago when I clicked through a twitter link. A very entertaining speaker to say the least, whether you agree with his politics or not. Here's a few links.
JCP: nice trade Piker. Feel you on the work front; keeps me away as well. Not pretty for JCP. New 52 weeks lows in store tomorrow. The below snippet is from the Financial Times.
Michael Francis, JC Penney’s president, is leaving the department store after it posted a disastrous 19 per cent fall in quarterly sales blamed partly on a marketing campaign he oversaw.
Mr Francis was leaving immediately, JC Penney said on Monday, having joined only eight months ago as one of the new guard brought in by Ron Johnson, its chief executive, who was hired to revitalise a tired operation.
JC Penney shares fell 5.9 per cent to $22.90 in after-hours trading following the announcement, having dropped 2.3 per cent during the day.
Mr Francis’ departure is the first evidence of internal upheaval over the course of a revitalisation effort that Mr Johnson, former head of retail at Apple, last month insisted was “way ahead of schedule”.
Mr Johnson will assume direct responsibility for the marketing and merchandising operations that Mr Francis oversaw.
A pillar of Mr Johnson’s turnround plan is a new pricing strategy, but in its first quarter JC Penney’s like-for-like sales tumbled 18.9 per cent, the sharpest decline at a big retailer that many sector experts could remember.
FB: wondering the same thing (short squeeze). Took a small position a few days back on the 10SMA break. Probably take 1/2 off today and let the other half ride.
SBUX: yep, should be interesting if it dips below that range. I will most likely wait and see if there's a retest if it does break down. It's a quality name that I won't short lightly.
LULU: on the cusp. nice gap back in early Jan that could be a target. no position for me yet. Also watching SBUX.
TPX: trading in the 24 range PM, down from 43. That's nasty to say the least.
CRM: silly me thought he bought CRM puts, but my SPY order filled instead. In case anyone scratched their head on how I could have gotten them for .48, you're right, I didn't. Looks like a good thing too, since earnings were good.
CRM: bought some 131 puts @.48. Lunch money trade. If they beat, I don't eat.
SHLD: Edit: Must be this. Sears plans to spin off big piece of Canada stake
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/17/us-searsholdings-idUSBRE84G0G820120517?feedType=RSS&feedName=innovationNews&rpc=43
just printed $54.75 PM. Up due to WMT?
European Banks Are Getting Creamed Left And Right Today
The equity value of European banks continues to evaporate into thin air.
Fears of a Greek exit, and the ensuing periphery bank deposit flight are ON.
News that over $1.3 billion has been withdrawn from Bankia has sent that stock down about 20%.
Italian bank UniCredit is off 6%.
Banco Popolare is off 4%.
SocGen is down 3.5%.
Santander is off 3.1%.
STOXX Europe 600 Banks Price is off 2.4%.
http://www.businessinsider.com/european-banks-getting-creamed-2012-5#ixzz1v7y6Ic00
SHLD: chart update courtesy of @TraderStewie
http://scharts.co/Mm3VC1
The European Bank Death List
http://t.co/Eq9TglXQ
Link to the PDF is halway down the page on the right.
Vulnerable Stock Charts with High Sales Exposure to Europe
http://www.optionshawk.com/blog/?p=289
SODA: nice trade! definitely a stock pickers market lately. I need to think about some straddles for this type of action.
So the question is who is still fat? PCLN, CMG, LULU, MNST come to mind, but I'm not crazy about shorting PCLN. Who else?
OT: To anyone that I offended with a post Friday evening, my sincerest apologies. Thank you Ico for deleting it. Beer and posting don't mix, but that's no excuse. It was poor judgment and taste on my part. Sticking to charts from here on out.
AAPL: another courtesy of @fitzstock2004.
http://chart.ly/luglkay
Time to get started on my honey-do's. Have a great weekend all.
SPY read courtesy of @fitzstock2004. He's one of my favorite follows on twitter. Guy is usually spot on on AAPL & PCLN if that's something that you trade.
http://chart.ly/xsge32q