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He is a brilliant mind-
So it doesn't go unsaid:
Thank you for sharing your system, as well as Gleno in this and the old board for as long as you both have-
Always good to have insight into what other people are seeing to compare with your own-
Indeed. Been lurking here a long time...lol-
But having skilled people see similar things as I makes it easier when committing capital-
Thanks for the back and forth!
Gonna turn back into that silent sponge and absorb what everyone has to offer-
Absolutely agree, what I do. Wish the first few years of trading I knew to filter out noise, would be retired by now...lol-
But I do like to know what news is around and use it as a source, not an indicator. Lack the consistency with technical focus/discipline of the traders on this board, so using some things to frame a situation helps. Some of the best trades have been counter bets on news. However when I'm confused or getting mixed impulses, will just stand aside until the charts tell me what's up-
Why 230 seems very important very soon-
Those time frames are too emotional for me...lol-
Think the health care vote uncertainty is scaring some people. Know not to trade off of news, but like to use it to frame the technical information-
would 230 be the only support level with any strength?
Just some random thoughts in the head:
Got a feeling the new uncertainty with the Obamacare repel vote on Thursday is manifesting itself-
Been stated more then once that tax/regulation reform will be addressed once health care is taken care of, hence the massive rally since November-
But if the repeal vote fails, and this drags on for longer then many think, who knows when those tax breaks will happen-
Which changes the valuation just a bit...lol-
So might be a bit more choppy then people are expecting for a short bit-
The VXX may not have put a bottom/pivot candle in today...
But look at that VIX candlestick print today-
It maybe nothing, but it's worth noting-
A 10 handle on the VIX earlier...
Not sure I've seen that before-
In regards to AAPL:
Vicious looking potential head and shoulders on the daily chart-
Blow it up to six months daily, and it's pretty hard to miss-
This week?
When no ones around?
Pretty far I bet-
Can you log onto the website via the phones browser?
Had to do that once when the E*Trade app was down, and was able to close positions-
Awkward running through the menus instead of the normal tap-tap of the app but it worked-
Forex antics-
Cable got crushed and Yen strengthened to sub 104-
Both bouncing now. Markets tied to forex more than fundamentals-
Hey now, no need to be snarky with those predictions....
Buy the June 17 250 strikes. Give yourself some more time...;)
Good Friday-
Just interesting oil ripped into it's close while SPY has kept on inching down and got no help from it...
Hey, if I was always right, I wouldn't be here...:)
Thanks for the analysis, some good stuff to chew on for sure-
Did catch the consensus number was in the 2's, and as you mentioned it easily outpaced that-
But did see on the news outlets that the API number after close yesterday was larger then the DOE number from this morning, ~4.6 vs 4, which would explain some of the covering with a bad number that wasn't as bad-
Sure if it the number released this morning was in the 5's, it be acting different...
Love this board by the way. One of the few I visit everyday-
I'll go back to lurking...:)
Correct me if wrong-
But did the DOE report show a smaller build then the API last night?
If so, then cover away today it seems-
October-
Second that comment-
Do 80% of my trades on the app-
Outside of the erroneous quotes issue that only appeared the past couple weeks, very very satisfied over the years with it-
Short squeeze across the board-
think this VIX options expiration tomorrow might be fueling this rally-
Having to pull off protection you know was bought by many at much higher prices acting as a slow balloon propping the market up? Then having to put in on again not knowing what the Fed might do...
And quad witching on Friday? Oi...lol-
Such an odd couple days-
Could it have something to do with VIX options expiring tomorrow?
Based off purely anecdotal/memory evidence, the day before/of is rather tepid trading until the announcement comes, making me think we the rally really only has Mon/Tues to work it's mojo-
And honestly with that bloodbath from two weeks ago, path of least resistance is up, and just using that reverse logic, who has the most to lose with that meeting? Shorts in my eyes-
In sync with you, holding nothing over this weekend, but with the tightness of that wedge/triangle, should be an easy spot at open Monday which way it wants to run. A 198/194 break and the choice is made for me-
Besides, would much rather back the truck up and load with puts closer to that 203-205 level anyhow, need that up move to bring back complacency-
And the ex-divi payout on the SPY is really skewing put prices as well-
The Fed rally is on...
Can you imagine being short going into it?
Think that 204 level is an easy target by Tuesday...
Still gonna wait till 198 breaks though... Then plan for that big wave down. Would paint quite a nice picture that way-
They are announcing on the 17th, so Wed/Thur being meeting days-
Which is funny cause VIX options expire Wednesday...
Fed meeting is Thursday, different from the usual Wednesday meetings-
Does that alter your timing/perspective at all?
Actually combing through the morning saw the slide really got going with the JOLTS number around 10-
Was a big number, 5.8 million, which says companies are looking for jobs to fill-
And the Fed blackout period is now, and that number really tells of a tight tight labor market...
And Apple has a $99 dollar stylus. Those two kinda explain the day in hindsight-
Had to grab a handful of 109 puts at .50-
Solely on that pencil. I know, I'm bringing great analysis to the table with that call...lol-
But you are right, he deftly side-stepping the watch numbers last earnings way...odd. But being the first new product in his reign, gotta stick to it-
Not surprising when they announced the....
Apple Pencil
Really?
Really?
Shoulda bought puts when I saw that...lol-
This dollar strength isn't a good sign for equities-
That dovish press conference Draghi gave would have in 2012 (and did) sent the markets to the moon, but quite a different story now-
And if there is somehow a beat on the jobs tomorrow... Not surprised at the caution right now-
There SPY quotes seem to be off by 30 minutes-
Been using eOption app to get better sense of pricing when on the road, but the Etrade Pro on the laptop is accurate-
Been a bugaboo for awhile now,
Surprised they haven't fixed it-
But for other symbols, it's been accurate-
Just the SPY this week it seems to have trouble getting accurate quotes-
Yep. Has been nothing but awesome for me for years now. Except for this week-
Etrade all week has not had accurate quote on the SPY options for this week-
Why I moved to the other stocks I follow and played them-
Was able to scalp a bit off that drop with 194.50 puts bought at .50, but when I tried selling at the bid price multiple times, between 1-1.20, finally just put in a .75 limit and they executed at .9-
Very very shady-
Short AAPL big like-
Three bounces on a weak uptrend line screams like a dead-cat to me-
Same/similar pattern on many tickers which means that massive spinning top on the SPY Monday was delaying the inevitable instead of a sign of reversal imho-
It's gonna make a run back up to the 200 day some point soon over the next week-
But if it fails there again after a day or two, we got a Jesse Livermore type trade setup-
Also can see a symmetrical triangle on the SPY daily-
The rally EOD brought it back within, but all ready for 5 touches within it, which usually(just usually...lol) means it resolves itself opposite the entry, which was up(204-213)-
Open a cash only option account with whatever broker you use/want to-
Cash option trades actually settle the same day, which basically means you can do as many day trades as you want with settled cash-
Got $2500? Do $2500 in trades that day. If you hold overnight and sell the next day, that cash won't be free till the next day, but having that peace of mind of being able to get out whenever you want is immeasurable-