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Cheers
I Respectfully Disagree NFLX
When momentum stocks get hit with a downgrade, often times
it comes from influences tied to large hedge funds.
Because they want to buy the stock at a discount.
I posted here a couple months ago my opinion in regard
to the fundamentals on NFLX in regard to the programming
industry, why NFLX was poised to gain subscribers based
on the economy. Subscriber growth is growth.
I expect this subscriber growth to continue for some time.
Commercial exposure for the lodging industry, partnerships
with MSO's (cable companies) will continue to be developed
also fueling growth.
Now, I'd like to hear your reasoning as to why you believe
NFLX is a bottomless pit.
Cheers
NFLX Support??
Not that I'm any good at this, but here's what I have.
All firelines have been blown through to the downside.
I had to run the weekly to pull these, so I'm not.
1) 323.43
2) 319.10
3) 297.46
4) 275.81
All fib levels pulled from various runs in 2013
ROK Plows Into 1st Target
2nd T = 113.86 161.8% Extension
3rd T = 120.63 261.8% Extension (Possible / Unlikely)
It isn't that the 261.8% extensions never come, in this market they almost always do. But this trade setup rules are, targets 1&2 are hit in ten days after closing at or above the 78.6 forward fib level, pulled from 52 wk high to swing low prior to start of move back up.
Wow Mang I Could Use A Week
Like That
Congrats!!
NOC Slams Into 2nd Target
101.39
Another base hit. That's all.
BABY Alert From 10-22
Worth keeping an eye on. Play with options, going out eight weeks
as the when the weekly squeeze breaks north, hopefully, the run will last 8 to 10 weeks, in theory. At this point, it would be wise to go out to Jan as decay is slow until 60 days out, which is when decay decline speeds up, the last 30 days escalating, the last 10 days falling like a rock.
Cheers
NOC Hits 1st Target
100.11
NOC Hits 1st Target
100.11
2nd Target = 101.39
LMCA Hits 1st & 2nd Targets
From the alert.
1st = 152.86
2nd = 155.48
William Gann: Market Analyst
In the never ending education regarding markets and trading, I'd never heard of the man. According to history, this guy was a self taught market analyst, back in the 20's or something like that is when he began. Possibly earlier. He plotted price action on graph paper, developed 9 essential trade setups with rules. This guy was and still remains a market genius. Not only did Gann develop trade setups and rules, he created a method to predict timing for entries and exits, days, or weeks, even months in advance. So, now I'm taking Gann classes. Class one is over, there are eight more. I expect to be thoroughly confused by the time it's finished.
These are online classes, they are affordable. If anyone else is interested, hit me and I'll get you info to get in.
More on Gann concepts:
http://www.robertwcolby.com/gann.html
Cheers
NOC & LMCA Price Alarms Went Off This AM
NOC hit both targets a few weeks back on the goodies option alert.
The safe play is to wait for a close above the alert of 97.69
1st Target = 100.89
2nd Target = 103.17
LMCA
Price action alert has gone off several times over the past few weeks, each time failing to close above the alert price.
Alert price is 149.13
1st Target = 152.92
2nd Target = 155.61
The thing is, what is the market going to do? No one knows for certain. It would seem likely a deal will be executed in regard to the debt ceiling, perhaps a 99.999% certainty. On top of this, we have a new fed chair person. Although other fed heads talk about tapering, the new fed head is QE friendly, more so than the outgoing fed head, or so I hear.
Reality is this: IMHO, there will be no taper. Not this year, not next year. There will be only taper chatter and taper will not ever materialize. Why? Because they have painted themselves into a corner, getting out is a catch 22, the outcome of making any changes other than increasing QE, will crush the poor and middle class more powerfully than we have seen to date, and no one can convince this old man they haven't been squashed at an ever increasing rate. When QE3 began, some talking heads pinned it as QE infinity. They hit the nail on the head. When one comprehends that cutting QE, raising interest rates will cause the fed great pain, then you know, nothing will change, until the end.
So, even though the uptrend line on the S&P was breached, the strategy of BTFD (Buy The XXXXing Dip,) still looks like a good bet. I'm treading lightly here, and will continue with only short quick scalps until we get back the old not so normal days.
Have a great weekend !
Cheers
JNJ Head And Shoulders
For a head and shoulder pattern to confirm, look for decreased volume on the right shoulder top. The bigger difference in decline in volume as compared to the left shoulder, the stronger the setup. For JNJ, it is possible the lower volume on the right shoulder comes from lack broad market volume in this time period. We're going to find out. Earnings on 10-15.
TSLA Finding Support
Since the run began, there's only a could of ways to pull support.
It's crashed thru a key area it was holding, a dual support fireline and 78.6 retrace of a short wave. On a longer wave, 38.2
retrace hasn't bee breached yet. May be time to sell rallies on index ETF's. I don't know.
There's Blood In The Water
1665.00 is a key area here for S&P. Read an interesting article last night in which the case was made for increased QE to come. It
made sense but the spin doctors can produce an argument which sounds reasonable no matter what opinion they are promoting. Been holding off shorting broad market via ETF's. Seems as though bears are beginning to show strength. If we do get an increase in QE, the ride is going to be a thrill one way or another.
Cheers
DISH / Alarm Went Off
A Close above 48.64 is what I look for here. If I believe it
will close over this area, I'll enter early, prior to the
EOD here. If it doesn't close over the alarm price, then
it doesn't fit the trade mold.
1st Target = 50.45
2nd Target = 51.75
Cheers
TSLA Scalp 2 / Late Friday Setup Exit This AM
This setup on late day squeeze pop, I see it often.
And almost always, there is a nice gap and quick run
up the following trade day. I've only watched it pan out
on high priced large volume tickers, don't know how it
would play out on other picks.
Cheers
TSLA Earnings on 11-7
I agree. The downgrade was done so the big boys could acquire positions at a lower cost and or get out of existing shorts.
Or so says a big loot trader I know who is an ex trader for
a too big to fail outfit.
Thinkin That Will Be A Nice Ride
Show Me The Squeeze
In ToS, if you have the script, you can scan for all trade vehicles that are in the sq, scan by any time frame. Another script and you can scan for any vehicle in which the sq has just fired. With other script, you can add the sq to your watch list, across any time frame. The sq is powerful, setting up a definite breakout. I've watched the sq and the breakouts over and over, looked back in time on charts and seen the sq and the following breakout on hundreds of vehicles. Futures, equities, forex, yadi yadi. For scalping, the five min sq, or 15 min, or 30 min, or all three simultaneous. On this watch list, at the top, there are multiple time frames to see sq status from short to long term.
The red bars are stocks in a sq, and what time frame. Can't see on this pic, inside the red bars is a number, telling how many dots into the sq at any given time. The green is sq fired, and how many dots into the fired status.
Cheers
TSLA: Vid From FibQueen Showing
Methods regarding symmetry projections, fib timing cycles,
Etc. Fibqueen is an amazing chartist, stated Jim Cramer.
She has a book out, and does online training webinars,
inexpensive training worth every dollar. When I took off
six months from trading to switch to ToS, I did some training
webinars with her, and another guru. I'm a frugal cat, not much
of a follower. Learning from a couple of folks has helped me see
things I'd never heard of, thought of. But this material works.
Amazingly accurate forecasting methods. Like anything else, nothing
works always in every situation. Fibqueen & Simpler Options training webinars, I'd rate this material a 9 out of 10, no 10 only because there is no holy grail, nobody wins 100% of the time.
Cheers
Posted with permission granted:
insert-text-here
TSLA Pullback Murphs' View
An amigo called on the rollover to know where TSLA Support levels sit. I hadn't been watching so ran some quick symmetry projections.
Yest she stopped and bounced off the 175.49 area, 175.4 was the low.
There is a short term fib retrace 61,8 level which has been breached this AM. So far, the 34 EMA, a fib number, has held. Under that is a dual cluster, fireline symmetry 165.97 thru 78.6 retrace @ 166.21. Haven't gone beyond what I've done yet, will wait and see if bulls can spin this and produce a short squeeze rally north before looking at longer term fib retrace areas. There are no more symmetry projections. TSLA' run didn't produce anything larger in terms of a symmetry retrace than the lower fireline. lol
MCP Alert Failure
Tried to post on it Monday evening.
A breakout watch. I had a symmetry support fire line at
6.43 which held, the symmetry pattern if you look at the
daily is five down days followed by a rebound. I count
five or so of this pattern set going back to 4-29.
Cheers
CELG Went Through 2nd Target Yesterday
Run up to 157.21
2nd target was 156.86
There are three targets on this trade setup.
But target 3 isn't one I hold out for.
It's the 2.618 extension. CELG might make it
as it's in a cup n handle breakout. It could also
tank here lol.
Cheers
BABY Trade Idea
Got in last week. Daily & Weekly Squeeze.
Nov & Jan calls. Held strength on down days.
Low priced.
Haven't been able to post. ip ban.
Cheers
AZO Post Earnings Trade
Move 20+ bucks last week after earning pre market on a miss. Still, earnings were very good IMHO.
CELG Goin To 2nd Target
156.86
Powering up on a down day.
Boring Income Trade Update
Sold my calendar spread for 20% in nine days.
Buy the back month, sell the front month.
Selling a calendar spread for monthly income.
No chart reading required. Never look at a chart.
Check once a day. It works because the front month decay
sold happens more rapidly than the back month decay you buy.
The trade is managed using the Greeks, mainly delta, theta,
& vega. Non directional trading. Even if you have an opinion
on movement, you can be wrong and still make loot. Use indexes
or index ETF's. A picture showing the concept of the trade:
Cheers
CELG Scalp
Set alarms yest for a handful of 52 week high retrace, alarms
set at the 78% retrace back up for forward low off 52 wk high.
CELG went off right after the bell. Jumped a high delta 125 call
to exploit the .95 delta power. In @ 25.60 out at 27.60 a 22 min
scalp. 1st target was 154.11 / 2nd 156.86 CELG was in 5, 15, & 30 min sq. And a cup and handle pattern. Breakout.
Left with another traders loot in my wallet.
Weeee
CSTE 2nd Target Strike
This morning. Today was a fib timing even day also.
CF 2nd Target Strike
Trigger alarm at 199.52, close above this on 9-16.
Enter on 9-17, 1st target 208.43 hit 3 days later.
2nd target 214.77 strike 3 days later.
Trade done, final post.
Ongoing
We'll lose.
CSTE Daily Squeeze Breakout
Image hosting was down on the initial alert. This play had an extended daily sq set up with rising momentum, and it was a 52 week high then retrace, then extend setup also. Also, a fib timing event was implied for 9-24. Fib timing is only an area as weekends get sucked into the projections. Fib timing only suggest a directional defining point, so a reversal, start a down run or an up run. And sometimes, nothing at all happens lol.
SRE Triggered And Sq Breakout
The 87.25 alarm went off, SRE had been in an extended 5 min sq & a short 15 min sq, the A wave crossing the zero line gave the directional clue for the breakout. In 45 min, it hit the top of the LRC channel so I expect a bit of a retrace, this while the broad markets fell. 1st target is the 127 ext 90.64 & 2nd target is 161 ext, 93.05. Haven't run symmetry R, but other fib R levels are 91.37 a weak R, and then 91.8 a bit more powerful R area. Targets may be tough on this one. We'll see. I bailed on USO last Thurs when the run on crude ran out of fuel, took a small loss. /CL continued to fall, and this morn, broke thru a fib support cluster 104.10 thru 104.61. Still anticipate crude to extend past recent high of 112.24 on 8-28. Russia needs crude to trade around 117.00 and I expect they will make that happen. This info came from a report I read over the weekend.
SRE Update
Trade triggered on Weds post fed news. The trigger was directly related to news, so we didn't enter the trade, anticipating it would fall back down over the next day or three. It did fall back, under the trigger at 87.25, alarm is reset, awaiting an orderly and structured move without outside interference.