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SOHU 15 Min Sq Pop
In 1st 15 min dot here of squeeze pop out north.
Lot of stuff on screen was in extended squeezes.
Many poppin here.
APA
PCLN
LNKD
Many other not up on screens.
RAX Earnings 100% Win
Options are a nickel here. Dump em for no fee.
RAX Earnings Trade Idea
Weeklies, this Fri exp.
IV is 131%, 1 SD = 6.00 call it.
Underlying = 49.00 Call it.
There is no premium at 2 SD's now.
So we look at 1.5 SD = 9.00
Idea:
Sell vertical call credit spread for .40 cent credit per contract.
57.50/62.50 for .40 cents.
57.5 = .55 ask
62.5 = .20 ask
Target = .35 cents, close when both options are a nickel or less,
hopefully tomorrow sometime.
Break even underlying is 57.90
Risk Vs Reward at a full loss is 500.00 for 35.00
Probability of win = 89%
That's the idea.
Don't trade with funds you can't lose.
This is not a reco.
Veterans Day
Don't forget em.
All gave some, some gave all.
Cheers
Good Alert Manic
SOHU opened this morning atop a 50% retrace which was also very near
a 61.8 retrace of a shorter move. 60.83-61.13 dual fib support.
V Out for .70 cents
BIIB Watch
BIIB has a quad fib support area near Fridays low.
The top on 10-28 fell in a dual fib timing date range.
There is another fib timing date on 11-9.
There is also symmetry timing in play here not shown
on the chart. Looking for a long confirmation day.
Also watching sister tickers REGN & PCYC this week.
For BIIB, looking for a move across 245.98
V Entry Late Friday
Friday at aprox 2:05 PM the tick turned upward.
Watching too many possible scalps to post.
The final 20 min of the cash session began looking good
for longs. The final 5 min was a surge on the VOLSPD,
the TRIN fell off a cliff, TLT & 6J Yen were falling
all in unison.
There was a potential bearish timing cycle for last week,
and if Friday closed under 1747 on the ES we could have
seen a nice correction over the next couple of weeks.
But the bulls pushed back Friday and stampeded the fence
late in the day, in theory the bear cycle is now squashed.
Took V late in the final 15 min, Jan 185 calls @ 15.50.
Other entries failed to fill by EOD. Kinda premature entry
on V as I'd like to see it push past 198.45, next R is a 61.8
retrace @ 198.61, then the 78.6 retrace @ 199.38.
Intentions are a scalp but if V runs past R area's it may turn
into a swing.
Cheers
BIDU Swing Idea
Moves over 152.75 on a 15 min closing candle.
1st target = 158.97
2nd Target = 163.39
LNKD Scalp Idea
Waiting to see if it can cross 216.96 to scalp from there to
218.81
PCLN Earnings Idea Winner
1155/1165 are both a nickel here.
Close for no cost or wait for em to go to zero.
There were today's exp call credit spread.
95% probability trade winner.
Selling premium on high IV, it doesn't get much safer.
PCLN Earnings Trade Idea
Sell the call credit spread, 1155/1160 for a .35 cent credit.
That's the idea. The deltas say it has a probability of 95%
of being a winner. Close at a nickel or less tomorrow.
Looking for .30 cents, or 30 bucks per contract.
Break even point is 1155.27
ROK Strike Target 2 On Down Day
On Down Day.
ROK alerted 10-17 initially, hit target 2 today on an earnings beat.
Target 2 was a fib ext, 113.89.
ROK went to 113.95 and has since fallen back to near target 1.
Took longer than what's desirable.
AAPL & BIDU & V Five min Sq
Here. They will break one way or another for a scalp.
V may be down, AAPL may be down.
BIDU no clue.
Sometimes they fire down and bounce fast back up.
BIIB & GOOG Fired Short
GOOG just fired short, but may push up off the drop.
BIIB the bottom fell out, five dots into the short squeeze fire here.
FOSL Call Credit Spread Earnings Trade
Full profit here, both the 155 & 160 calls are a nickel.
Could close these for no trade fee.
GOOG / BIIB / In The 5 Min Sq Here
GOOG momo is above zero but the tick is rolling over also.
Will watch for which direction it fires and scalp it.
BIIB is in a longer 5 min Sq, looks like down may be the move
but can't know until fires off.
Cheers
BIDU Bailed
Lost .40 cents to keep from giving up gains from yest scalp.
Will get back in this one again.
TSLA Earnings Trade Idea
Selling the call credit spread was the right idea.
Teacher sold the 1 SD calls and killed it.
But he trades a mil plus acct, sold the calls naked.
For little people like myself, the math of selling
2 SD out on a spread is the safe play.
Cheers
MNKD Man
It popped on the 5 min sq late yest also.
Comin down here.
V popped on the 5 min sq was in at close yest.
You're the pro on those lower priced equity options.
I'm takin loot from MM's buyin high delta options.
Vol isn't a factor, they have to make the market fairly.
Delta 95's and up, even if zero vol, MM's write those
options. They aren't sweating my little trades but they
can't stop me from chipping away at their loot.. lol
Weeeeeeeeeeeeeee
FOSL Earnings Trade
Just wait for the nickel to come on both 155 & 160 Nov calls
and bail. They are at a dime here. Working out perfectly.
Back In BIDU Late Yest
Jan 150 Calls @ 12.70
C'mon BIDU
Weeeeee
Wheeeew
FOSL Earnings Trade Idea
Selling the Nov call credit spread, 155/160 gives a .32 cent
credit here.
Idea:
Sell 155 call = .75
Buy 150 call = .40
These are at the ask numbers.
Risk 500 to make 32 bucks - 1.50 per contract fee,
so roughly 25 bucks a contract when planning on closing
at a nickel or less with no fee. It isn't quite 2 SD out.
IV is only 77%. Just gonna track this and see what it does.
The odds are high it's a winner.
155.32 is the break even number.
Cheers
This One Has Been Ganked
IV went up to over 140% now.
1 SD nearly 21.00 bucks also.
There is no more premium 2 SD'd out.
At 1.5 SD there is still decent loot.
But too much risk for this old man.
TSLA Earning Trade Idea
Sell a credit spread.
There's .21 cents in the 220/230 call credit spread here.
Will wait until tomorrow to see what price action is and
sell a call credit spread 2 standard deviations away.
As of now, 1 SD is 20.40
Hoping for more upside by mid morning tomorrow.
Possibly a few more pennies in premium.
Unfortunately the increments are 10.00 so to sell 10 CCS contracts
here will put a hold of 10K of margin. Risk 1K to make 20.00 bucks.
Who would do that?
I will > lol
Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
Market Internals
Morning Manic
Be careful across longs in Nov here.
There's a cat, don't recall his name, does market projections
based on astrology (I know it's laughable) but he's been right
since the late sixties. Saying we see a correction this month.
Hopefully he's wrong.
IMMU Earnings Monday AM
On the chart, 3.33 is the 161.8 downward extension of the last wave up, so that's a likely support area. It was at 3.42 yesterday's low.
Also, 3.23 is the 78.6 retrace over the bigger move from mid Feb thru the first of Oct. Gonna give this one some screen real estate and see what earnings do. IV is 130% or so here.
Good luck !!
NBG Busting A Move Here
Hope it works out for ya.
LNKD Earnings Trade Went Perfectly
Sold the 285/290 vertical calls for .30 cents credit,
it went up a bit later in the day from .25 cents,
and actually was as high as .44 cents at one time yest.
This morning it was closed for .04 cents and no trade fees.
Received a credit for .26 cents, 260 bucks less entry
fee of 15.00 bucks flat rate.
High probability trading.
Weeeeeeeeeeeeeee
LNKD Earnings Play / Sell A Vertical
Weekly, this Friday exp, IV is 125%
MMs have the move at 25 bucks.
This is a trade idea, not investment or trade instructions:
240 is the current price.
Two standard deviations is 50 bucks.
There is .25 cents in premium selling the 285/290 call credit spread.
As long as LNKD ends Friday under 285 we keep the full 25 cent credit. Don't wait on Friday. Tomorrow is the close out day.
The trade is just to get your feet wet.
Sell the 285/290 call vertical for 25 cent credit per contract.
10 contracts will get you a 250.00 credit.
Earnings after the close today. Tomorrow morning, the IV crush
will be on and the options will lose significant value.
The target is 200 bucks if you trade on ToS. When the options
bid is a nickel or less, you can close the trade at zero trade fee.
You could let them expire for the full .25 cents.
On a spread, it's advisable to close before expiration so there
is no risk of assignment. Paper trade it.
Cheers
CXO And The Permian Basin TX
Way back in the day, when the Bakken play in ND was
just news, no drilling yet. We picked some oil
field outfits that went on to become multi baggers
played straight up. Long term option trades made
millionaires over the next couple of years.
Now we have the Permian Basin play in west TX. Estimates
put the field at least 20X the recoverable oil in the Bakken.
This one is in it's infancy.
CXO is a major player in the field. Midstream outfits will
multiply with larger moves than CXO but I haven't researched
which outfits are going to be in yet. In the interim, I gave CXO
some screen space. Since late May, it was up over 50%, and has
retraced a bit here.
Cheers
ARNA Straddle From Way Back
Before I knew anything about IV.
It took off on the FDA news, my put side crushed,
my call side crushed within minutes even with price
running way up. Hard lesson, took 18 months till I
learned what went wrong. lol
I should have sold the straddle, not bought it, and
banked the IV crush.
TSLA Fib Analysis
From 7-17 swing low, the break under the 34 EMA to high on 9-30.
You can pull a fib off many points. On TSLA, momo runs the price action. Everyone has there own EMA's they like. I like fib EMA numbers, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, & 89. For a momo runner, the 8 & 34
work well. A break under 34 is a swing low, or one swing low one can use. Pulled these fibs on the downgrade day. Weds the retracement struck within three cents of the 38.2 retrace.
Waiting until late next week to pick my trade which will be
selling the premium from the high IV.
NBG Coming Out
Of a 15 min squeeze here.
One dot out, momo over zero.
It's outside my risk comfort zone though.
Good luck!
Cheers