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An investment strategy for Amarin...Sell the day prior to a C.C.....Buy the day of the C.C.
I have not done the research, but I am under the impression that that might work.
No one wants to hear a lot of B.S. in these conference calls...but it would be nice if Amarin could discuss, even if ,with only a small amount of detail, specific projects on the horizon...which have a chance to be successful.(i.e. discussions on potential new formulations of EPA and new clinical indications).
Most of these C.C. are rehashes of stuff, already known to serious investors, but may not be known to casual investors.
IMO, from listening to this conference, Amarin seems to be establishing a custom of underpromising and overdelivering....
No bad news...but no crowing about potential good news.
Bird..."It would be great for the appeals court to revive the lawsuit because it would put Amarin in a better position to negotiate a settlement with Hikma. And it might scare some other generics into being very careful in their sales of a drug that probably makes them little money anyway."
You make a good point...I have long felt that the future of Vascepa is in volume sales...not in price...When the Chinese national health system approves funding for Vascepa for Chinese patients in the mainland, I believe that Amarin will initiate development of an Authorized EPA Generic...and that will make for a much higher volume of sales throughout the world.
Patients worldwide will benefit and Amarin will benefit.
At the C.C. on 2/29/24... a discussion may be forthcoming, as to whether Amarin has plans to present further arguments to the court...in this vitally important case, in which Hikma infringed Amarin's CVD patents by off label sales, ostensibly for the hypertriglyceride indication...but, in fact, for the CVD indication.
After seeing the proceedings in the judge Du case, I now believe that "anything can happen in a court of law"...With this in mind, it is realistic to think that Amarin can prevail in the present infringement case against Hikma...even after the case was previously dismissed.
Gus..."what legal steps are Amarin taking to defend the 93% Cardiovascular Indication against generics which have a constant 43% market share."
Amarin needs to prove intentional infringement on their CVD patents in courts...although everyone knows that infringement has been occurring by...generic companies, physicians, pharmacies, governmental agencies, PBM companies, etc., etc....it has been difficult to prove in courts.
Perhaps forthcoming new patents on Et-EPA, an improvement over Vascepa that gets into the lymphatic system in more concentrated amounts...patents, which Amarin has already applied for, will help solve the problem...Amarin has been inhibited from spending their limited assets on marketing because 50% of the sales of Vascepa are now going to infringing generics...This present situation deprives patients from knowing about the reduction of CVD and the other benefits from taking Vascepa.
FFS..."I'm a big believer in the pleiotropic properties and strongly think every human should be taking it - if for nothing more than anti-aging"
I agree...The anti-inflammatory, i. e. anti- cytokine effects, of Vascepa, combined with the safety of this orally administered drug, should make for its universal use throughout life.
ggw..."What test should one order to detect "Carotid artery occlusions"?
The only tests I have had on my carotid arteries, prior to my endarterectomy and afterwards, have been ultrasound scans.
KIWI...".I assume you are still on a Statin"
Answer is...Yes...I have been on 80 mgms. Lipitor per day...since my first heart attack in 2010.
I saw my neurologist this morning...After having had a carotid endarterectomy proceedure on my left carotid six years ago, I have been having carotid ulrasound studies on both carotids on a regular basis(at first every six months and then on a yearly basis)... My neurology Doc reported, after reading today's study, that there was no additional plaque in either artery seen on my study, above was seen five years ago ...and he discharged me back to my primary care Doc with no further ulrasounds or appointments scheduled for the future...I asked him whether this lack of additional plaque in either artery over the five years could be attributed to my taking Vascepa daily...His reply was..."YES, I think so".
Carotid artery occlusions are often accompanied by strokes. as it was in my case...I would love to see a randomized controlled study with Vascepa vs. placebo on such cases.
JR...The primary importance of the decision in British Columbia to reimburse HLS for Vascepa... is not that it adds a few dollars to the revenue of Amarin and HLS...But it is that Vascepa is becoming more and more accepted as an effective, safe drug for patients...and also that Vascepa is able to save money for national health care systems.
Almost every important disease has inflammation as a concomitant...The appearance of anti-inflammatory steroids was a lifesaver...But steroids have proven to have serious side effects.... 4 grams/day Vascepa is not as effective an anti-inflammatory as steroids, but it has almost no side effects... It is only a matter of time that that these facts become more understood and usage of Vascepa explodes.
LR-Et-EPA May be a improvement over Vascepa in the Rx of Alzheimers..."it is also expected to have a higher efficiency as crossing the BOOD-BRAIN BARRIER (BBB), thereby delivering the fatty acid which is the active ingredient of the composition to the brain. The BBB can be a ROADBLOCK for pharmaceutical agents to access their therapeutic target in the brain or reach a sufficient level inside the brain. Therefore, the lymph releasing formulation of the present technology may provide a novel strategy and platform for delivering fatty acids across the BBB for them to exert their anti-inflammatory, pro-cognitive, and/or other neuroprotective effects useful in the treatment of a variety of neurological diseases and disorders."
I assume that since Amarin and Mochida are partners, they will share patents, free of royalties, charged to each other.
Tats...I don't believe that Amarin would apply for 9 new patents on a drug that has already been patented by Mochida, a company, whom they have a partnership agreement with...and who have already patented MND-2119 by themselves
"Based on 9 U.S. Provision PATENT APPLICATIONS, Amarin has secured a worldwide patent PRIORITY claim to a lymph-releasing composition of eicosapentaenoic acid ethyl ester (LR-EtEPA) technology/invention and methods of using the same to increase EPA uptake in tissues to treat and/or prevent the onset of a number of diseases."
The article by TalShu on a new drug from Amarin, LR-EtEPA ...posted on August 2023(post# 414421) describes a potential successor to Vascepa...I hope we hear more in the near future about his new, improved, Amarin drug.
A short summary..."Based on 9 U.S. Provisional Patent Applications, Amarin has secured a worldwide patent priority claim to a lymph-releasing composition of eicosapentaenoic acid ethyl ester (LR-EtEPA) technology/invention and methods of using the same to increase EPA uptake in tissues to treat and/or prevent the onset of a number of diseases including:
- Cardiopulmonary, cardiovascular, and cerebrovascular diseases
- Pulmonary disease including sepsis, SIRS, and/or ARDS
- Neurological diseases
- Cancer
- Diseases associated with the kidneys, pancreas, liver, intestines, blood cells, lymph, and the musculoskeletal system
- Diseases associated with oxidative stress and/or glutathione (GSH) depletion
- Inflammation and diseases induced by air pollution
ETC......."
The philosophy of longs usually is ... to hold a stock, looking for its upwards movement in price in the medium to long term..The philosophy of shorts usually is... to trade a stock, looking for its downward movement in price in the short term.
The posts on IHub are often a tell on the philosophy of the poster.
Hayward...I agree that the volume on significant up days is much larger than the volume on significant down days.
e.g.....on 1/10/24 Amarin opened at 1.12...and closed at 1.29 with volume of 15,800,900 shares--(up 17 cents)
while on 1/30/24 Amarin opened at 1.39...and closed at 1.24 with volume of 3,214,500 shares--(down 15 cents)
The obvious conclusion is that the buyers are more dedicated than the sellers...Since it took 5 times the commitment of the buyers to get the Amarin price up than the sellers to get the Amarin price down.
Does this indicate that the buyers are more committed than the sellers?...and, if so, what does that imply for the future of Amarin?
The ninth circuit case is NOT about invalidation of a patent...IT IS ABOUT A FRAUD ON THE COURT!
Jas...Quote from the Respect EPA study..."the BASELINE level of EPA in Japanese individuals has been considered to be relatively higher than that in Western countries"
This factor might have caused an underestimation of the effect of Vascepa in reducing MACE...i. e. in populations, not on a diet featuring as much fish products as in Japan.
Additionally, this study in Japan, showing the efficacy of Vascepa in reducing MACE, was performed with a dosage of 1.8 grams daily rather than the 4 grams daily advocated by Amarin for Vascepa, which could have been even more effective.
Amarin PR from 3 months ago...10/31/2023..."Amarin Appoints Jonathan Provoost Executive Vice President, Chief Legal & Compliance Officer"
Fraud on the court is an important enough issue to be looked at by the U.S. Supreme court... Amarin's new chief legal officer has had 3 months on the job to review Marjac's 260 page brief and have Amarin institute legal action to bring justice to the ninth circuit court proceedings...wherein the judge cited an illegally cropped study as the decisive factor in her decision.
Dar...Amarin is a kind of super lottery ticket in which you invest a small amount cash in the hopes of making a large amount of cash in return...However, it is better than a lottery ticket because, unlike with a lottery ticket, you can use your knowledge to help you tip the odds a bit in your favor....but you still need some luck.
Early investors in Amarin had the right knowledge, but not the right luck.
With Denner on board, maybe our luck will change
DAR...I agree...The news that a BB was in the offing was crucial...mainly, in that it gave notice to investors that Amarin was financially stable...Now Amarin is expecting a catalyst to give investors and potential buyers additional confidence for a BO at a higher valuation than the present one.
The problem is that there too many potential culprits in cases where generics use off label prescriptions to infringe.
This makes it difficult for an innovating company to pursue a generic company for infringement on their patented indication
The parties to blame may include:
-the generic company
-the Doc
-the patient
-the pharmacy
- the pharmacy benefit plan
-the insurance company
-the government
A generic company may invest very little cash, and even though their infringing product may be inferior to the branded product... they can still stand to make lucrative profits.
Marzan...Information on China approval of Vascepa for CVD, as well as announcement of the Chinese national health service prices for Vascepa, are the 6 billion dollar questions...I would assume they will happen sometime in the first half of 2024....or, at the latest, in H2/24.
CBB....A drug such as Vascepa, that's destined to treat a large part of the world's population...must have a price tag low enough to be affordable to a large part of the world's population.
CBB...China approval of Vascepa for CVD opens many doors including...
-huge increase in volume of sales
-lower prices for API charged by suppliers to Amarin for the high volume Vascepa...than the higher supplier prices for API charged to the generic companies for the low volume generic knock offs.
-lower prices to national health services for Amarin's Vascepa
-an AG by Amarin for Vascepa in the U.S.
-blockbuster status for Vascepa in world markets (i.e. similar to that Lipitor)
-blockbuster profits for Amarin
MA5...IMO such important news is best delivered with a link, for a better understanding of the full details....i.e....if the Brave study did not show statistical significance, was there any positive trend that demonstrated that Vascepa ameliorated Alzheimers...or delayed the onset of Alzheimer's symptoms... as shown by the cognitive testing results or by the biomarker results in the study.
If so, the safety of Vascepa, combined with the severity of Alzheimers disease, might lead to the approval of Vascepa as treatment of AZ...perhaps contingent on the initiation of a larger study.
Posts with useful information, as well as posts with thoughtful opinions are helpful to us investors ...Posts with intentionally misleading information or with very extreme opinions, either positive are negative are not helpful.
IMO, PD and NS gave us important information...and even though I didn't always agree with PD and NS, I appreciated their posts....and I wish they would resume their posts.
Considering that Vascepa, which is 97% PURE EPA, is being perpetually mistaken for 'just another Omega 3'...and considering that the sales of Omega 3 drugs are expected to grow markedly in the future...perhaps it would now make sense for Amarin to rebrand Vascepa as Omega EPA...or Omega EPA-PURE to take advantage of this growth in the market.
Capt...Early detection and treatment are key to reducing Alzheimers,...NOT the removal the amyloid ...once it has already been developed due to inflammation in the brain...If the Brave study shows a positive trend towards anti-inflammatory Vascepa slowing amyloid development in the brain, it would be an important treatment milestone.
Jas...Some patients, sadly, will die after being denied Vascepa ...and have to take a generic as a poor substitute...when these patients might have had their lives extended...if they had taken Vascepa, as prescribed by their Docs, but substituted for with generics by insurance companies or pharmacies...Lawsuits from the families of the deceased might attract the attention of the FDA...especially if studies by Amarin or by a BP could affirm the differences that we know exist.
This also applies to the situations when pharmacists advise omega 3's or Lovaza, as a cheaper version of Vascepa, but... as a "heart healthy drug, which is just as successful as Vascepa in reducing CVD".
IMO, Amarin has better odds of being sold to a BP during the next 180 consecutive business days(i.e. about 7 months from now)..than it has of being under a buck at that time....When a company's stock is under a buck, BP's refrain from buying that company...because, if the BP pays a fair price for it, this generates criticism from the BP's own shareholders....
The goal of Denner is to get the price up high enough to generate a reasonable offer from a BP.
For those interested in TA...I noted this morning that Fidelity, which had pegged the resistance line for Amarin stock price (as seen on my trading screen) at $1.16 the during the past week), has now changed this line to $1.31..If Amarin price can go over that, it can indeed go much higher....especially with the gradual realization that safe Vascepa is really effective at reducing CVD.
CVD is widespread in every country...I suggest a simple slogan to be imprinted on the label of every bottle of Vascepa...IT WORKS!
Vascepa's largest competition, by far, is worthless Omega 3 OTC's...Its time for effective Vascepa to make inroads on this market.
Every food store and pharmacy currently has large displays of Omega3's...Wouldn't it be helpful for patients to see similar large displays of Vascepa, when they walk into a store or a pharmacy.
Bidmark...Why not go all the way...Have Amarin market a more expensive product, "Vascepa OTC" containing the patented capsule...and a less expensive product, "icosapentethyl generic OTC", containing the less expensive capsule...
Allow informed consumers...and national health care systems to make the choice.
Denisk...GS, increasing their position in Amarin by over 160 thousand shares, while having a sell rating...seems to me, admittedly a non lawyer, to be an illegal conflict of interest.
Capt...It is of interest to note that Lipitor in the UK has 73% of the statin market, even though there are statin competitors which are effective....all the while Vascepa's INEFFECTIVE competitors, containing both EPA AND DHA, have 76% of the Omega 3 market in the UK... even while Vascepa, which is EFFECTIVE, has only 24% of the Omega 3 market.
WHAT IS PFIZER DOING RIGHT?