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Well I can tell you the motive that both Russia/Iran/China (all buddies) are going to try and become more of a global force. Syria is one of their allies.
The US has created a power vacuum based on our current foreign policies. Do I think they plan on taking over Syria, no. But do I think they want the chaos in Syria to die down to create a stronger ally, yes.
Nothing is going to happen this weekend. I know you keep mentioning Syria but Russia's intentions are to fight ISIS. The fighting has been raging in Syria for 3+ years. I forget when it even started at this point.
You also think Russia is going to do something stupid the weekend before Putin is going to be in the US?
For some reason I just feel like this is just a big tease move and it's going to go down further.
I am probably dead wrong on this thought.
GDP for Q2 was 3.9%. Expect rates to be raised and the dollar to get stronger and oil to get cheaper.
Watch the $ index. It's crept up to 96.70 and it could continue to increase in the coming weeks to 98. Especially if GDP numbers are solid today. Those will be out in 5 minutes
What's the difference between us bombing ISIS targets in Syria and Russia possibly having an offensive against ISIS?
I doubt anything would happen anytime soon if Russia were to attack the rebels (not ISIS) that are against Syria. I think this is a chance for Russia to look like the Knight in shining armor by getting ISIS out of Syria. Which is something the US wasn't willing to do with boots on the ground.
Stop stealing my daily comment, haha. Today should be interesting to see if oil going up has much left to it. I am thinking in the coming weeks you will see oil start to sell off between 2-2:30.
Yellen speech could be a lose/lose for oil. If she discusses that she isn't raising rates because of the global economy is slowing. Oil will sell off.
If she hints that interest rates could be raised in the near future then oil could sell off. This means the dollar with strengthen and that will make oil cheaper.
This might go below $44 (and stay below) even before I thought it would. I thought it would take a couple of weeks.
If the MACD lines cross then oil could possibly see $35-37 by mid October when we could see inventory builds of 5+ million.
Why does the US need QE 4? GDP was like 3.3% and unemployment was around 5.1%. Granted I don't like how the unemployment is calculated. If anything the FED's should be raising rates by .25% or at least by .125%.
What we need is Washington politics to get out of the way. They keep doing last minute tax changes. Couple years ago when they didn't push the tax changes through until December 31st they ended up preventing businesses from buying equipment and taking the additional equipment expense. That was the year where farmers were having UNBELIEVABLE years and they could have bought new equipment to take as an expense.
Be careful if the MACD lines cross then oil could start to tank. They are close to intersecting. Anyone long on oil better hope that they bounce off of each other.
2 pm will be the biggest key. In the past 2-3 weeks oil has went up during the 2-2:30 pm window. However, the previous 7-8 weeks it always sold off.
If oil starts to sell off during the 2-2:30 pm window then oil has loss all of it's momentum and it will continue to go lower.
I don't know if $44 will break until a couple weeks from now. It will probably break after the inventory report shows the first 4+ million build.
The inventory numbers were nothing special. Production didn't drop per the report. Our production is still 300k per day over last years production. The global economy is slowing down (China and other developing countries). The upcoming weeks last year had about 20+ million build in October when we were producing 2.1 million barrels less per week.
But if you look at last years reports in October there was inventory builds of -1.4, 5, 8.9, 7.1, and 2.1 for the upcoming weeks.
That was when our production was 300k less than our current production. Even with production falling off it would be safe to assume 1.5 million additional barrels per week.
I agree with your 1-3 month horizon for oil.
I didn't consider this report very good. Production stayed the same. The imports were low at 7.2 million. You are going to start seeing some huge inventory builds in the next 2-3 weeks. Then China's economy isn't going to get any better in the near future.
If Russia makes an offensive then ISIS will run to Iraq. Which it could cause havoc within IRAQ because you will have more of a concentrated force in IRAQ.
Oil could go up in the short-term next 2 weeks. But if you look at last years reports in October there was inventory builds of -1.4, 5, 8.9, 7.1, and 2.1 for the upcoming weeks.
That was when our production was 300k less than our current production. Even with production falling off it would be safe to assume 1.5 million additional barrels per week.
The big money traders must be drunk today. The stock market has been looking like a roller coaster since the Fed has announced the no change in interest rates.
I guess they really didn't need to raise rates when the 10 yr is trading at 2.2%. It wasn't long ago that this was trading around 1.8%.
Especially when you have Goldman Sachs cutting oil price estimates. We are also starting to see the negative headlines picking up steam.
Then you have CITI's Chief economist saying China is financially out of control (Link below).
Which this is what my brother-in-law who is a partner at a big accounting firm has been telling me. He currently is in charge of business development for an 17-19 countries in the Asia region. China being one of the 17-19 countries.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/citis-chief-economist-says-china-105130654.html
Of course he wants $70 oil and higher. Venezuela's economy is doing really bad right now. However, Saudi Arabia and other big OPEC producers don't care about Venezuela or the Angola's.
This needs to pop here or it's heading to the $40-42 range.
FYI, I just talked to my brother in law who is a partner at a big global accounting firm and his territory is the Asia market. He just said the Chinese manufacturing are operating at 40% capacity. He was just in China meeting with clients this past week. He said things aren't good there.
Right now the lifting of the export ban won't do much for WTI. The spread on WTI and Brent oil is only $4.
I am thinking WTI might gain $1-2 and Brent would decrease $2-3. Now when the spread was $8-9 then it would have had a bigger impact.
Saudi Arabia Just Cut Crude Selling Prices To The US, Europe And Asia
Just in case you didn't see this article. Saudi Arabia is cutting their prices. I think we could see a pricing war in the near future. I also don't think the Saudi's are ready to cut production at this point. They want to drive the prices down further.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-03/saudi-arabia-just-cut-crude-selling-prices-us-europe-and-asia
Now that I said this it will probably close at $49.
Looks like this is going south. It traded sideways on low volume and it crashed through $47.
Sitting on the sidelines until Tuesday might not be a bad option. Oil moved down last time on July 4th. By the time you could trade on Monday the price of oil was down dramatically because there were still two days of trading in China beforehand.
I think UWTI went from $3.10 (close on Thursday) down to $2.50 (open on Monday)
TIMBER? I wonder if the hit at 48 would be similar for a downward reversal like 43 was used for an upward reversal yesterday.
That is what I was thinking. I wouldn't be shocked if this has a quick jump over $1.50.
This was a much needed correction for oil. But I still think it's going to test $35 unless Saudi Arabia decides to cut back on production.
Especially when the builds in inventory aren't related to imports being over 7.4 million barrels a day. It seems like when looking at the historic imports it's usually around 7.4.
Well Yellen and the other Chairman are all people with little banking experience with their PHD in economy.
But the FED shouldn't be swayed by anything. Especially since the economy has met everything the FED has been looking for.
I think the FED will raise rates in September and could only be .1%. Unless China's markets start to go into free fall again then I could see them holding off.
Dollar continues to strengthen. Remember 2 months ago how oil was a trade on the dollar. We aren't to far from the dollar index being at it's high of 98.
Imagine what will happen when the Feds raise rates in September. Couple weeks ago I didn't think the Feds would/should raise rates in 2015. However, I don't know how they can't after all of the new economic data. This was economic data goals that the Fed has set themselves. If they don't raise rates then the stock market is running the FED instead of the FED running themselves.
Yes he is in DWTI right now but he has been an individual that has been long on oil/UWTI since I have been around back in February (just got out of a UWTI position).
I have been long on oil/UWTI but I am also in DWTI right now.
China is due to have another stock market meltdown at some point this week, haha. Which that will drive oil down.
I think any activity from any foreign government in Syria is a good thing. What's worse Assad or ISIS/ISIL?
Russia, IRAN, and China are already best friends. That shouldn't come as a surprise.
Saudi is going to spend a lot more money cause of Iran. Which shouldn't come as a shock.
I feel like like oil is just playing with everyone in UWTI. It seems like it wants to give that hope of reaching $1.50 again since it did on Monday. But it will want to break everyone's heart by taking away everyone's gains on this most recent run.
I feel like I have been in the position before with UWTI. I think I am going to go into the night owning 150 shares of DWTI.
Because the change in oil % relates to the oil closing price at 2:30 pm. However, oil is still trading through the 4 pm stock market close. This is why they don't directly correlate at times because oil could have traded down (like it did last night) from 2:30 - 4 pm.
This is a tough resistance point for oil. But I think it will probably come crashing downward as well. Especially with the dollar continuing to strengthen. The dollar strength hasn't had much of an impact on this recent run up by oil.
LOL, you must not watch any news either. We are talking about the Iran nuclear deal. The deal will also lift any sanctions on Iran which means they will produce and sell more oil.