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Futures (3) + World Indices
http://www.cme.com/trading/dta/del/globex.html
http://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/
http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/futboard/current/
- Has links for quotes and charts.
World Indices (2) Mini Charts
Updates every 60sec ~ Watch the dates!!
http://www.wwfn.com/commentary/oscharts.html
http://www.allstocks.com/markets/World_Charts/Asian_Stock_Markets/asian_stock_markets.html
A conversation with Henry Paulson, United States Treasury Secretary
Henry M. Paulson
Charlie Rose Show PBS
Mortgage&Credit Card Default Map
http://data.newyorkfed.org/creditconditionsmap/
Courtesy..cy esp
Fed.1)2) 1day Reverse Repo25.00B
Fed (2)1 Day Forward 28day 20.00B
Fed:
http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE
The Slosh Report:
http://www.gmtfo.com/RepoReader/OMOps.aspx
Fed to buy commercial paper from mutual funds
Tuesday October 21, 9:06 am ET
By Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer
Fed says it will buy commercial paper from mutual funds in another move to thaw frozen credit
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Federal Reserve announced Tuesday that will start buying commercial paper -- a crucial short-term funding mechanism that many companies rely on for day-to-day operations -- from money market mutual funds.
It's the latest effort by the central bank to break through a credit clog that has hobbled lending and threatens to plunge country into a deep and painful recession.
The Fed is tapping its Depression-era emergency powers and creating a new facility to buy a vast array of commercial paper from the funds. Money market mutual funds have been under pressure as skittish investors demand withdrawals. Many companies rely on commercial paper to pay workers and buy supplies.
The situation has led to an intense credit crunch for companies depending on commercial paper.
"The short-term debt markets have been under considerable strain in recent weeks as money market mutual funds and other investors have had difficulty selling assets to satisfy redemption requests," the Fed explained.
The Fed plans to buy an array of commercial paper from the funds. By doing so, the Fed hopes to improve conditions so that banks and other financial institutions will be more inclined to lend to each other and to consumers and businesses.
Fed.1day Reverse Repo 25.00B
Fed:
http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE
The Slosh Report:
http://www.gmtfo.com/RepoReader/OMOps.aspx
W@G1 QQQQ 10/20/08 for a 10/22/08 close
36.15 frenchee
33.80 rayrohn
32.25 Farooq although my first instinct is 25.50.
31.00 bob3
Firms must now pay up credit swaps
By Jay Fitzgerald | Sunday, October 19, 2008 | http://www.bostonherald.com | Business & Markets
Another “day of reckoning” for battered markets may be coming later this week.
Financial experts are closely - and nervously - eyeing Tuesday as a major test of the strength of credit markets as major Wall Street firms are forced to pony up billions of dollars in payments for “credit default swaps” tied to the collapse last month of Lehman Brothers.
No one is quite sure how much money is owed by those who sold the complicated investment contracts, which basically are insurance agreements tied to Lehman’s bonds and Lehman’s ability to pay off those debts.
The contracts - which are part of a $54 trillion-dollar market for credit-default swaps - went into default after Lehman declared bankruptcy Sept. 15.
Now the payments are due on Tuesday - and it’s still a mystery exactly how much is owed by whom and to whom.
“Tuesday is a day of reckoning,” said Mark Williams, a specialist in capital risk management at Boston University. “Tuesday is going to be the next shock test to see how resilient the markets really are.”
The main problem is that credit-default swaps have been largely unregulated and extensively sold among major Wall Street firms behind closed doors.
Last week, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, echoing the sentiments of others, called for a new “clearinghouse” of data on credit-default swaps.
But future regulations won’t come in time for Tuesday’s big pay day.
Some have estimated that firms will have to cough up hundreds of billions of dollars - sums that could devastate already reeling Wall Street firms such as Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs.
Karel Gelen, a director at the International Swaps and Derivatives Association, says that those estimates are “clearly wrong.” Other estimates put the figure at a more affordable $6 billion, he said.
He noted that a recent industry auction set the price for Lehman’s bonds at about 9 cents per dollar - so the final bill for the Lehman debacle will only be a fraction of what some are fearing.
But Daniel Bergstresser, an assistant professor at Harvard Business School, said the problem remains: the market for the CDS contracts is too “opaque” and “we don’t really know the number of credit-default swaps written on Lehman’s debt.”
Bergstresser described Tuesday’s payment deadline as an “important event” that will indeed test nervous markets.
Some have blamed the exotic credit-default market for exacerbating Wall Street’s woes.
Companies such as Bears Stearns and Lehman Brothers were ultimately brought down by their bad investments in subprime-mortgage securities.
But their collapses pulled other investment products down with them, such as credit-default swaps.
American Internationl Group almost went under because of its own insurance commitments, before the Treasury took it over and pumped billions into its coffers to keep AIG propped up.
Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Washington Mutual and three key banks in Iceland have also had their own credit-default scares.
Gerard Cassidy, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets, agreed with the ISDA’s Gelen that past credit-default problems were “handled OK” via the industry “protocol” for handling settlement.
But he agreed Tuesday is still a “big day” for investors hoping for a sign markets are returning to normal.
Article URL: http://www.bostonherald.com/business/general/view.bg?articleid=1126383
Futures (3) + World Indices
http://www.cme.com/trading/dta/del/globex.html
http://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/
http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/futboard/current/
- Has links for quotes and charts.
World Indices (2) Mini Charts
Updates every 60sec ~ Watch the dates!!
http://www.wwfn.com/commentary/oscharts.html
http://www.allstocks.com/markets/World_Charts/Asian_Stock_Markets/asian_stock_markets.html
How Low Can Mining Stocks Go?
http://seekingalpha.com/article/100443-how-low-can-mining-stocks-go?source=email
MoneyTalk on the net with Bob Brinker
Brinker -KGO: http://www.kgoam810.com/listenlive.asp#
Show time is 4:00pm EDT Saturday & Sunday sometimes pre-empted 4 local sports event. So l have listed KGO @ same time frame, a Ca station with strong signal.
The 1st 10-15 min sets his take, then on to screened calls. [user friendly];)))
Fed. Ops: 20.00B Matures this week.**
King's Ben & Hank increase Debt, see reply to.
Wed: 20.00B 28day
=======================================================
Temp Ops:
Perm Ops:
=======================================================
Public Debt:**
Limit ~ $10,600 T
10/16 ~ $10,331 T
New $10.6 Trillion debt ceiling.
#msg-30998680
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np
=========================================================
Fed:
http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE
The Slosh Report:
http://www.gmtfo.com/RepoReader/OMOps.aspx
=========================================================
Ray Wins W@G again !!
Fed.3day Reverse Repo 25.00
Fed:
http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE
The Slosh Report:
http://www.gmtfo.com/RepoReader/OMOps.aspx
Banks borrow record amount from Fed
Thursday October 16, 4:36 pm ET
By Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer
Banks borrow record amount from Federal Reserve's emergency lending program
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Federal Reserve reports that banks borrowed in record amounts from its emergency lending facility over the past week, while investment banks drew loans at a brisk -- though slightly lower -- pace, further evidence of the credit stresses hobbling the country.
The Fed's report, released Thursday, shows commercial banks averaged a record $99.7 billion in daily borrowing over the past week. That surpassed the old record -- a daily average of $75 billion -- from the prior week. On Wednesday alone, $101.9 billion was drawn, an all-time high.
For the week ending Wednesday, investment firms drew $131.1 billion. That was down a bit from $134 billion in the previous week. This category was broadened last week to include any loans that were made to the U.S. and London-based broker-dealer subsidiaries of Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch.
More: http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081016/fed_credit_crisis.html?.v=2&printer=1
not a clue, l was out today with grankids /e
Fed.1day Reverse Repo -25.00B
Fed:
http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE
The Slosh Report:
http://www.gmtfo.com/RepoReader/OMOps.aspx
Social Security benefits going up by 5.8 percent
Thursday October 16, 8:43 am ET
By Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer
Social Security inflation adjustment in 2009 will be largest in 27 years: 5.8 percent
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Social Security benefits for 50 million people will be go up 5.8 percent next year, the largest increase in more than a quarter century.
The increase, which will start in January, was announced Thursday by the Social Security Administration. It will mean an additional $63 per month for the average retiree.
The increase is the largest since a 7.4 percent jump in 1982 and is more than double the 2.3 percent rise that retirees got in their monthly checks starting in January of this year.
The typical retiree's monthly check will go from $1,090 currently to $1,153.
But the fatter Social Security check may still seem puny to millions of retirees battered this year by huge increases in energy and food costs who have also watched helplessly as their retirement savings have been assaulted by the biggest upheavals on Wall Street in seven decades.
"Right now many senior citizens are feeling depressed because things seem out of control. They feel like they are in a boat being whipped around by rough seas," said Sung Won Sohn, an economics professor at the Smith School of Business at California State University. "Their purchasing power has been going down because of higher prices for food and energy and a lot of other things while their savings have taken a hit because of what is happening in the markets."
The market turbulence has continued this week with the Dow Jones industrial average plunging by 733 points on Wednesday, the second largest point drop on record. Earlier this month, the Congressional Budget Office estimated that Americans' retirement plans have last as much as $2 trillion over the last 15 months -- more than 20 percent of their value -- because of all the market upheaval.
With all the gloomy news, retirees may take little comfort in the new cost of living adjustment. The benefit change is based on the amount the Consumer Price Index increases from July through September from one year to the next.
The increase would have been even higher, but after racing ahead earlier in the year, energy costs fell in both August and September, helping to moderate the overall price gain.
The 5.8 percent rise in the cost of living adjustment is a sharp departure from recent years. The COLA increases have been below 3 percent for all but three of the past 15 years as the Federal Reserve waged a successful campaign to keep inflation under control.
Even with the big increase, the COLA is well below the gains of the late 1970s and early 1980s when the country was in the grips of a decade-long bout of high inflation. The biggest cost of living benefit on record was a 14.3 percent increase in 1980. Social Security benefits have been adjusted every year since 1975.
In one break for most retirees, the cost of living increase will not be eaten up by higher monthly premiums for the part of Medicare that pays for physician services. Because of gains in the Medicare Part B trust fund, that premium will hold steady at $96.40 a month, although higher-income people including couples making more than $170,000 annually will see their premiums increase.
Next year's cost of living increase will go to more than 55 million Americans. More than 50 million receive Social Security benefits while the rest get Supplemental Security Income payments for the poor.
The average couple, both getting Social Security benefits, will see their monthly check go up by $103 a month to $1,876.
The standard Supplemental Security Income payment for an individual will go from $956 per month to $1,011.
The average monthly check for a disabled worker will go from $1,006 to $1,064.
Sens. Barack Obama and John McCain have sparred over Social Security during the presidential campaign, although neither has provided much insight into how they would fix the government's largest entitlement program, which is facing severe strains with the upcoming retirement of 78 million baby boomers.
If no changes are made, the Social Security trust fund is projected to deplete its reserves in 2041 and will begin paying out more than it collects in benefits even sooner, starting in 2017.
In addition to the cost of living adjustment, the government announced Thursday that the maximum amount of earnings subject to the Social Security tax will increase next year to $106,800, up from $102,000 this year.
Of the 164 million workers who will pay Social Security taxes in 2009, about 11 million will pay higher taxes as a result of this increase.
Real-Time Forex Streamers (2)
http://www.netdania.com/QuoteList.asp
http://www.forex-markets.com/quotes.htm
Smaller Banks Resist Federal Cash Infusions
By Binyamin Appelbaum
Washington Post Staff Writer
Wednesday, October 15, 2008; A01
Community banking executives around the country responded with anger yesterday to the Bush administration's strategy of investing $250 billion in financial firms, saying they don't need the money, resent the intrusion and feel it's unfair to rescue companies from their own mistakes.
But regulators said some banks will be pressed to take the taxpayer dollars anyway. Others banks judged too sick to save will be allowed to fail.
The government also said yesterday that it will guarantee up to $1.4 trillion of private investment in banks. The combination of public and private investment is intended to refill coffers emptied by losses on real estate lending. With the additional money, the government expects, banks would be able to start making additional loans, boosting the economy.
President Bush, in introducing the plan, described the interventions as "limited and temporary."
"These measures are not intended to take over the free market but to preserve it," Bush said.
On Capitol Hill, lawmakers from both parties praised the plan and scrambled to take credit for writing provisions into the law passed almost two weeks ago that allowed the government to switch from buying bad loans to buying ownership stakes in banks.
On Wall Street, bank stocks soared even as the broader market stayed flat while investors grappled with economic concerns. The Dow Jones industrial average was down 0.82 percent, or 76.62 points, to close at 9310.99 one day after its largest percentage gain in more than half a century.
And in offices around the country, bankers simmered.
Peter Fitzgerald, chairman of Chain Bridge Bank in McLean, said he was "much chagrined that we will be punished for behaving prudently by now having to face reckless competitors who all of a sudden are subsidized by the federal government."
At Evergreen Federal Bank in Grants Pass, Ore., chief executive Brady Adams said he has more than 2,000 loans outstanding and only three borrowers behind on payments. "We don't need a bailout, and if other banks had run their banks like we ran our bank, they wouldn't have needed a bailout, either," Adams said.
The opposition suggested that the government may have to continue to press banks to participate in the plan. The first $125 billion will be divided among nine of the largest U.S. banks, which were forced to accept the investment to help destigmatize the program in the eyes of other institutions.
In rolling out the program, Treasury said it would make the rest of the money available to banks that requested it. Officials said they expected thousands of banks to participate.
But both the American Bankers Association and the Independent Community Bankers of America said that they knew of few banks that planned to participate.
"I'm not sure we've heard from any that want to participate," said Karen Thomas, vice president for government relations at the community bankers group, which represents about 5,000 banks. "That said, if any community banks do enroll, we anticipate it will be just a small minority."
Federal regulators said they did expect some banks to volunteer, though none stepped forward yesterday. But they added that they would not rely on volunteers. Treasury will set standards for deciding which banks can be helped, and the regulatory agencies will triage the banks they oversee: The institutions faring best and worst will not receive investments. The institutions in the middle, whose fortunes could be improved by putting a little more money in the bank, will be pushed to accept the money from the government.
"We will encourage institutions to apply," said John C. Dugan, the comptroller of the currency, who oversees most of the nation's largest banks.
In return for its investments, Treasury will receive preferred shares of bank stock that pay 5 percent interest for up to five years. After that, if the companies haven't repaid the government's initial investment, the interest rate goes up to 9 percent.
Participating banks cannot increase the dividends they pay to shareholders without federal permission, they must accept some limitations on compensation for their executives, and Paulson said the government would press companies to limit mortgage foreclosures.
The government decided not to impose an explicit requirement that banks use their taxpayer dollars to increase lending. But regulators said they will watch banks closely. They also noted that banks have less reason to hoard money now that they can borrow more easily. Most important, however, they said, banks want to make money.
"And the way that banks make money is by lending," Dugan said.
Also yesterday, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. said it will create, essentially, two new insurance programs.
The basic insurance program still guarantees all bank deposits up to $250,000. A new supplemental program guarantees all deposits above $250,000 in accounts that don't pay interest. The program basically covers accounts used by small businesses.
Some European governments had already guaranteed deposits, creating a competitive advantage for banks in those countries. Banking regulators also were concerned that small businesses were transferring deposits from community banks to larger institutions perceived as less likely to fail. Finally, small businesses contributed to the failure of Washington Mutual and the collapse of Wachovia by pulling uninsured deposits from those banks.
The FDIC estimates that this new guarantee could cover up to $500 billion in deposits. Banks that sign up for the insurance -- and bankers agree that everyone will participate, for fear of ceding an advantage to rivals -- will pay a premium of 10 cents on every $100 in deposits.
The combination of the existing and new guarantees will cover about 80 percent of the $7 trillion in deposits at the nation's banks. The bulk of the uninsured deposits are held in interest-bearing accounts, such as certificates of deposit, that tend to be marketed and regarded as investment products.
Sheila C. Bair, chairman of the FDIC, said the agency considered guaranteeing all bank deposits but decided that any potential benefit was outweighed by the risk that a guarantee on interest-bearing accounts would attract a huge inflow of deposits currently held in money-market mutual funds.
"We're trying not to stabilize one part" of the financial system "and destabilize another part," she said.
Separately, the FDIC is creating an insurance program to encourage investment in banks by guaranteeing that investors won't lose money. Participating banks will pay the FDIC a fee of 75 cents on each $100 in debt that they sell to investors. The FDIC will guarantee through June 2012 the debt issued by participating banks before the end of June 2009. If the bank goes bankrupt, or defaults on its debt, the FDIC will pay the investors.
To prevent banks from running up massive debts on the government's tab, the program limits banks to a 25 percent increase from their current level of borrowing. The FDIC estimates that the maximum amount of debt that banks could issue under the program is about $1.4 trillion.
Bair also said that the FDIC may refuse to guarantee debt issued by banks with financial problems, though she declined to discuss specific criteria.
Bair acknowledged that the new guarantees shelter banks from the immediate consequences of misbehavior because depositors and investors have no incentive to remove their money from an institution if they know that the government stands behind it.
But Bair said the government's first priority was to stabilize the industry.
"The risks of moral hazard were simply outweighed by the need to act and act dramatically and act quickly," Bair said.
Dugan offered a slightly different perspective.
"It just means we've lost one tool and we're going to have make sure that we compensate," he said.
Staff writers Paul Kane, Lori Montgomery and Peter Whoriskey contributed to this report.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/14/AR2008101403378_pf.html
Good W@G !!
Futures (3) + World Indices
http://www.cme.com/trading/dta/del/globex.html
http://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/
http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/futboard/current/
- Has links for quotes and charts.
World Indices (2) Mini Charts
Updates every 60sec ~ Watch the dates!!
http://www.wwfn.com/commentary/oscharts.html
http://www.allstocks.com/markets/World_Charts/Asian_Stock_Markets/asian_stock_markets.html
Beige Book full text.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and based on information collected on or before October 6, 2008. This document summarizes comments received from business and other contacts outside the Federal Reserve and is not a commentary on the views of Federal Reserve officials.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Reports indicated that economic activity weakened in September across all twelve Federal Reserve Districts. Several Districts also noted that their contacts had become more pessimistic about the economic outlook.
Consumer spending decreased in most Districts, with declines reported in retailing, auto sales and tourism. Nearly all Districts commenting on nonfinancial service industries noted reduced activity. Manufacturing slowed in most Districts. Residential real estate markets remained weak, and commercial real estate activity slowed in many Districts. Credit conditions were characterized as being tight across the twelve Districts, with several reporting reduced credit availability for both financial and nonfinancial institutions. District reports on agriculture and natural resources were mostly positive, although adverse weather associated with hurricanes Ike and Gustav negatively affected the South and the Midwest.
Inflationary pressures moderated a bit in September. While several Districts noted continuing pass-through of earlier price increases for metals, food and energy, most indicated that cost pressures had eased. Labor market conditions weakened in most Districts, and wage pressures remained limited. Several Districts reported lower capital spending or reductions in capital spending plans due to the high level of uncertainty about the economic outlook or concerns over the availability of credit.
Consumer Spending and Tourism
Consumer spending was softer in nearly all Districts. Retail sales were reported to have weakened or declined in Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, Minneapolis, and Kansas City; Dallas and San Francisco cited weak or sluggish sales; and Boston and New York indicated that sales were mixed and moderately below plan sales, respectively. Several Districts noted a reduction in discretionary spending by consumers and lower sales on big-ticket items. Several also reported increased activity at discount stores as consumers became more price conscious and shifted purchases toward less-expensive brands. Retailers cited these recent sales trends and concerns about credit availability as reasons for a weaker economic outlook, including a slow holiday season. Most Districts reporting on light vehicle sales saw declines, with several Districts pointing to reduced credit availability as a limiting factor for automobile sales. However, Kansas City, St. Louis, and Chicago noted that dealers offering incentive and discount programs had seen some positive effect on sales. Tourism was mixed or weaker for tourist destinations on the East and West coasts, while both Minneapolis and Atlanta indicated that increases in international travelers were helping to offset lower domestic travel.
Business Spending
Hiring and capital spending varied across Districts. Labor market conditions weakened in most Districts. Boston, Chicago and Richmond cited reductions in hiring or hiring plans. Atlanta, Minneapolis, Kansas City, San Francisco and Dallas all noted some weakening in employment. However, the demand for skilled labor remained strong in several Districts, and Kansas City noted market tightness for minimum-wage jobs in leisure and hospitality. Several Districts reported that capital spending decisions were being influenced by economic uncertainty. New York, Chicago, Dallas, and San Francisco noted weaker capital spending. Boston reported capital spending was mixed as firms were cautious about spending resources. Cleveland reported capital spending remained on plan but intentions to increase outlays have declined. Philadelphia indicated concerns over restrictions in access to credit were limiting future capital expenditures for some manufacturers. In contrast, Kansas City and Chicago reported that capital spending for producers of heavy machinery continued to be strong.
Nonfinancial Services
Nonfinancial service industries experienced weaker activity in most Districts. Several Districts reported that activity in real-estate and related industries such as legal and title services was weak. New York cited widespread deterioration in business conditions. Boston reported consulting firms were experiencing reduced demand for their services from a range of clients. Cleveland, St. Louis, and Dallas noted slower activity in the transportation industry; however, Dallas' slowdown was due mostly to temporary disruptions caused by hurricane Ike. Trucking contacts in Atlanta indicated declines in retail, automotive, and construction-related shipments, but increases in energy and farm products. Minneapolis reported continued strength in professional business services, while demand for professional business services was down in San Francisco and Philadelphia. Demand for healthcare-related services was strong in Boston, Richmond, and Chicago, but weaker in St. Louis and San Francisco. Staffing firms reported lower demand for their services in Richmond, Philadelphia, and Chicago, but noted steady demand in Dallas.
Manufacturing
Manufacturing activity moved lower in most Districts, and contacts expressed heightened concern about the economic outlook. Several Districts noted that credit conditions were contributing to a high level of uncertainty on the part of contacts. Declines in manufacturing activity of varying degrees were reported in Boston, New York, Cleveland, Richmond, Chicago, St. Louis, Kansas City, San Francisco, and Dallas. Atlanta reported that production remained at a low level, while Minneapolis described conditions as mixed and Philadelphia noted a slight increase in activity. Metals-related industries, including the domestic steel industry, reported slower activity, although overall levels of production were still high in several Districts. Producers of housing-related items, building materials and construction equipment continued to experience low levels of demand across the twelve Districts. Activity in the automotive industry also continued to decline. Kansas City, Richmond, Philadelphia and Chicago reported continued strength in exports. However, Atlanta indicated a decline in export orders, reversing a trend of the past several months. Energy-related manufacturers and heavy equipment manufacturers with ties to energy or agriculture continued to do well in most Districts. Dallas and Atlanta reported that hurricanes Ike and Gustav disrupted oil production and refining, restricting the supply of petroleum and related products and leading to gasoline shortages in the Southeast and along the East coast.
Real Estate and Construction
Residential real estate and construction activity weakened or remained low in all Districts. Housing activity was reported to have moved lower in Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Chicago, St. Louis, Minneapolis, Dallas, and San Francisco. While still slow, residential markets showed some signs of stabilizing in Cleveland, Atlanta, and Kansas City. Several Districts noted continuing downward price pressures and an increasing supply of homes for sale due to rising foreclosures. However, the inventory of unsold homes was reported to have declined in areas of the Boston and Atlanta Districts as well as in Philadelphia and Cleveland. Tighter credit conditions were cited as a limiting factor for demand in several Districts. Most Districts reported commercial real estate and construction activity had slowed, with New York, San Francisco and Dallas noting the sharpest declines. In contrast, Cleveland and St. Louis indicated steady activity. Increases in vacancy rates or sublease space were noted in Chicago, Boston, New York, Atlanta, and San Francisco. Several Districts reported project delays and cancellations due to tighter credit conditions and increased economic uncertainty.
Banking and Finance
Credit conditions tightened in all the Districts that reported on them. Bank lending was described as either stable or lower for both consumers and businesses. Cleveland, Kansas City, and San Francisco noted that loan quality had deteriorated. Credit standards were tightened, particularly for commercial and residential real estate loans, in several Districts. Several also indicated that lenders in their District had become more highly cautious and more conservative. Richmond noted increased scrutiny of loan applications by banks and higher collateral requirements on commercial lending, and Cleveland and New York cited increases in loan pricing. Some Districts also mentioned customers taking steps to ensure that existing deposits are covered by insurance and noted deposit withdrawals after reports of bank closings during September. Liquidity problems in inter-bank markets along with a higher cost of funds were reported in several Districts. As a result, Chicago reported that banks were increasingly utilizing alternative sources of funds like the discount window and the brokered CD market; and Kansas City noted that banks had become more cautious in their liquidity management. Several Districts cited reports from businesses of difficulties in obtaining credit.
Agriculture and Natural Resources
Agricultural conditions remained favorable in most of the Districts reporting on them. Corn and soybean harvests were somewhat behind schedule in Chicago, St. Louis, Minneapolis, and Kansas City. Heavier precipitation slowed the harvests in some Districts, but aided agriculture in Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, and Dallas. Drought continued to be a problem in parts of the Atlanta District, and hurricanes damaged agriculture in parts of the Dallas District. Yield projections slipped since the summer, but were still expected to be near historical averages. Livestock producers faced tighter margins due to high feed costs and problems with feed availability in some Districts. Most agricultural product prices fell in September. Exports continued to boost agricultural demand, while domestic demand lagged for some commodities. Conditions for the energy and mining sectors were positive, except for temporary damage to infrastructure from the recent hurricanes. Disruptions to offshore oil drilling in Dallas were not as extensive as they were after other recent major hurricanes. Drilling in the U.S. increased, especially for natural gas. Coal prices were stable, while oil and natural gas prices declined. Even so, energy operations looked to expand in Cleveland, Minneapolis, Kansas City, Dallas, and San Francisco. In addition, Minneapolis reported new mining activity.
Prices and Wages
Most Districts reported that cost pressures on prices had eased, although a number of Districts noted that the costs of energy, raw materials, food, and transportation remain elevated and margins were tight. Manufacturers in New York said that they plan selling price increases; but, with activity weakening, fewer other businesses anticipate price increases. Dallas noted that businesses facing softer demand plan to pass cost reductions on to customers, and Cleveland cited a decline in fuel surcharges as gasoline prices fell. However, respondents in Chicago and Dallas also reported that they continued efforts to pass-through earlier cost increases. Philadelphia, Dallas, and San Francisco noted increased discounting by retailers; Richmond reported that retail prices were rising less quickly; and Kansas City reported only a slight rise in retail prices. On the other hand, retailers in Chicago and Kansas City expect to raise prices further in coming months, and some in San Francisco also anticipate that the cost increases in train will lead to higher retail prices later this year and in 2009. Wage pressures across the twelve Districts remained limited outside of skilled labor positions that continue to experience high demand, such as the energy industry in Cleveland, Dallas, and Kansas City.
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Boston
George l have 1 position CDE.
Stayed up late to watch.
Yep all these pop's buying 'Paul Pop's
Fed.1day Reverse Repo -25.00B
http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE
The Slosh Report:
http://www.gmtfo.com/RepoReader/OMOps.aspx 1day
US companies need to refinance $794bln by '09
-S&P 5:31 PM ET 10/14/08 | Reuters
NEW YORK, Oct 14 (Reuters) - U.S. companies may need to refinance $794 billion in debt that is coming due over the next year and a quarter at a record high cost, and for some companies this may trigger their default, Standard & Poor's said on Tuesday.
"In normal times, this would be business as usual, but the credit freeze has made it difficult for firms, especially in the speculative-grade space, to tap markets," S&P analyst Diane Vazza said in a report.
"Firms that can access the bond or loan market are not going to like what they see, as bond and loan spreads in the secondary market are at all-time highs," she said.
S&P's estimate includes financial and non-financial companies and is based on bonds, notes and bank debt coming due over the next five quarters.
Companies will need to pay more to refinance mid- and long-term debt, and until markets recover any refinancing need could push riskier firms into default, S&P said.
"With banks under pressure and investors shunning risk, it will be very challenging for weaker speculative-grade credits to get capital," S&P said.
Debt maturities for companies rated "B-minus," six steps below investment grade, and lower are light, however, which is fortunate as "heavy refunding needs in this climate could trigger numerous defaults," the rating agency said.
S&P anticipates around $56 billion in debt from speculative grade borrowers, which are rated below investment grade, will come due in the fourth quarter of 2008, followed by $29 billion, $39 billion, $28 billion and $82 billion due in the first through fourth quarters of 2009, respectively.
Also, "we expect firms will tap any prearranged credit lines or turn to private capital until conditions improve," the agency said.
Higher-rated junk companies may be able to refinance their debt, though it will come at a high price. For example, average companies rated "BB," the first tier below investment grade, would pay around 10 percent for five-year debt today, compared with 8 percent at the end of August and 7.5 percent at the end of 2007, S&P said.
Companies struggling under their current debt load are likely to seek relief in their debt covenants as a weak economy pressures their cash flows.
Defaults, meanwhile, may accelerate in late 2010, as defaults have historically peaked one or two quarters after the end of a recession.
High yield debt maturities then accelerate from 2011 to 2013.
INVESTMENT GRADE
Around $110 billion in investment grade debt is also expected to mature in the fourth quarter of 2008, with an additional $450 billion maturing in 2009, S&P said.
Financial companies have $40 billion, $51 billion, $62 billion, $37 billion and $33 billion due over the next five quarters, respectively, while non-financial companies have $70 billion, $54 billion, $65 billion, $66 billion and $81 billion.
Companies are likely to be able to continue to access the debt markets, though the cost of debt will be much higher.
Short-term financing for non-financial companies will be more of a concern, as the cost of commercial paper has risen dramatically, and companies with short term ratings under "A-2," the third highest rating, will have diminished access to the market, S&P said. (Reporting by Karen Brettell; Editing by Leslie Adler)
Charlie Rose Show
A conversation with Jon Hilsenrath of The Wall Street Journal
Jon Hilsenrath
A conversation with Martin Wolf
Martin Wolf
A conversation with Nouriel Roubini
Nouriel Roubini
A discussion about Malaria
Peter Chernin
Tadataka Yamada
W@G2 QQQQ 10/15/08 for a 10/17/08 close
35.32 frenchee
32.50 rayrohn
31.75 bob3
Futures (3) + World Indices
http://www.cme.com/trading/dta/del/globex.html
http://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/
http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/futboard/current/
- Has links for quotes and charts.
World Indices (2) Mini Charts
Updates every 60sec ~ Watch the dates!!
http://www.wwfn.com/commentary/oscharts.html
http://www.allstocks.com/markets/World_Charts/Asian_Stock_Markets/asian_stock_markets.html
Dono expected better understanding Paulson's
plan too confusing for me.
took off 1 side DIA trade from yesterday holding the put.
DAVVQ 95p
Fed. (2) 28day RP + 20.00B
1day foward
http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE
The Slosh Report:
http://www.gmtfo.com/RepoReader/OMOps.aspx
Fed. 1day Reverse Repo 25.00B
Fed:
http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE
The Slosh Report:
http://www.gmtfo.com/RepoReader/OMOps.aspx
Futures (3) + World Indices (up)
http://www.cme.com/trading/dta/del/globex.html
http://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/
http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/futboard/current/
- Has links for quotes and charts.
World Indices (2) Mini Charts
Updates every 60sec ~ Watch the dates!!
http://www.wwfn.com/commentary/oscharts.html
http://www.allstocks.com/markets/World_Charts/Asian_Stock_Markets/asian_stock_markets.html
Fed. No Actions Today
Fed:
http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE
The Slosh Report:
http://www.gmtfo.com/RepoReader/OMOps.aspx
Social Security recipients to get benefit hike soon, but steep costs eat up checks
Amidst all the volatility and uncertainty in the financial markets these days, one thing is definite: Come October 16, Uncle Sam will announce the cost-of-living adjustment for 34 million Americans who now receive Social Security benefits.
Unlike in years past, however, that adjustment is expected to be among the largest increases in 25 years.
No one yet knows exactly how big the automatic benefit hike will be. But experts are predicting that Social Security beneficiaries will see their monthly benefit rise by at least 5%, perhaps more. In calculating the COLA, Social Security will look at inflation over the 12 months ended September 2008. For the year ended August 2008, inflation as measured by the consumer price index (CPI-W) was running at 5.9%.
More from MarketWatch.com:
• Women Far More Worried Than Men About Retirement
• Dramatic Drop in Home Values to Crimp Retirement
• What You Need Is Perspective in These Volatile Times
That means the average monthly benefit could rise to about $1,142 from $1,079 now, a $63
http://finance.yahoo.com/focus-retirement/article/105942/Inflation-Brings-Bigger-Benefit,-and-Higher-Expenses?mod=retirement-post-spending
W@G1 QQQQ 10/13/08 for a 10/15/08 close
35.32 frenchee
34.55 Farooq
34.00 rayrohn
33.75 bob3