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NSYS still going strong. New 52-week high in the $17's! Dang I sold too soon. Not sure who would chase up here into the Q1 report next month. As I think those big Q4 gross margins will drop back towards normal in Q1.
Guess on INMD it depends if you use their 'proforma' revenue number for Q1. That doesn't look as bad. $95.7M-$95.8M vs the estimate of $102.21M. I'm hardly sold. But it's a cheap stock with their excellent balance sheet.
The INMD Q1 miss was clearly telegraphed by the recent weakness in the stock price. But cutting annual revenue guidance from $495M-$505M to $485M-$495M is hardly a disaster. Stock had already been hit into today's PR, so I think people were expecting a weaker Q1. Plus they have $8.60/share in cash on the balance sheet. I was tempted to grab a few more on the premarket selloff to the $17's. Looks like I should have with the stock rebounding back over $19. I'm trimming some here, but wouldn't be surprised if INMD trades over $20 again soon. One buoyant market right now!
CVU up a tidy 14% from the open. Apparently traders don't care whether or not the company inflated Q4 earnings!
ELTK back down in the $10.20's, after the recent rebound to $12+. Still seems super cheap to me with over $3/share in cash on the balance sheet. I'm a buyer. Unfortunately started rebuying a little higher. Israeli stocks weak lately on the risk of an escalating conflict, but ELTK sells to the defense sector...
Yeah heck of an alert on AXTI. Stock popping over 20% today. Nice timing!
That's a nice IB feature. They also allowed you to get fills on pink sheeters before the open, which was awesome when a company reported terrific earnings and was going to gap up big. But the affiliate hassle was so frustrating I couldn't take it anymore. I had to respond 'No I'm not an affiliate' and then they would eventually remove the trading restriction. I finally talked to them and told them hey I've never been affiliated with any of these companies...and I never will be. So when they put the next restriction on, it was the last straw. Hopefully you have better luck!
I had to throw in the towel on IB. That affiliate hassle was just too annoying. They would completely restrict a stock I was holding (couldn't even sell it!) because they thought I was an affiliate? Must've happened a couple dozen times at IB. Never happened once at any other broker and I've been doing this since the mid 90's. Weird.
CVU caught my eye. But the numbers don't check out? I came up with Q4 pretax income of $906,195. Or .07/share. Apply a small tax rate and that's down to .05/share. And that's a good quarter for them. EPS are volatile. Sometimes they only earn .02-.03/share. Wouldn't feel great holding into the Q1 report next month. Not to mention past accounting issues. Buying in the mid $2's prob works out in this frothy market, but think I'm gonna pass.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cpi-aerostructures-reports-fourth-quarter-004000761.html
Joined you on a little INMD. This one sure is cheap below $20. Prob flattish revenues & earnings this year. But hopefully they'll still earn $2.50/share or so. Company has fat profit margins. And a fantastic balance sheet with over $8.60/share in cash. Do they have a stock buyback in place? Because that seems like a no-brainer at these prices imo
Markets rocking again this morning. Yeah that 1.5% correction was painful. I mean it looked like we may finally get a down month...*shudders*
HHS is a steal in the $6's imo. But I thought it looked pretty good in the high $7's. I added more shares today. Unless the new CEO is completely full of it (always a possibility), this is headed back to double digits. $6M in cost cuts this year, and another $10M next year. That'll only add to what was already a solid Q4 bottom line (excluding 1-times). So there's some big EPS coming. Like you said, might take a couple quarters to start putting up impressive GAAP earnings. But at least they'll have easy comps.
I'm a little disappointed we didn't see any insider buying this time. But maybe they're already in the blackout period with Q1 due next month.
Wow VTSI over $15?? Up almost 60% now...on good Q4 bookings? Not sure why a surprise as they said back in November that Q3 bookings were down because of the government shutdown...and were expected to rebound in Q4. I don't get the huge move up on the stock. But am glad I covered my short yesterday.
VTSI looks like an attractive short up here into their tough Q1 comp next month. But maybe momo traders keep bidding it higher between now & then.
DJT took a hit yesterday after they revealed their ugly 2023 financials. Big loss on tiny revenues. And this thing has a market cap in the Billions?? As crazy as any of the meme stocks at their peak imo
VTSI pulling back some. Only up 30% now. Down from the $13.80 high at least. Still don't understand why this one up so much with the 1-time boost to Q4 gross margins. But I covered my short for a quick profit after being down initially.
DRCT sliding to the $12's. Still seems way overvalued after that disastrous earnings report last week. Not sure why it rebounded to the $17's. Hope ya held onto the short. Think this one headed back to single digits. Too bad the borrow rate is ridiculously high.
Nice call on DTI so far. I was tempted when you mentioned it last week, but decided to keep it on my watchlist for a little while. Looks like a mistake.
Great alert on SOWG as well!
VTSI now over $13?!? I joined you on a few short shares. Today's move seems WAY overdone considering the hefty 1-time boost to gross margins in Q4. But the momo crowd has ahold of it so who knows...
Still trying to figure out on VTSI. Was the entire $3M recognized in Q4, or maybe it was more spread out? Gross margins in Q4 sure were high. If they recognized $3M of almost pure profit in Q4, the stock would be a tempting short in the $12's. As it should be up 10% not 30% imo. Sounds like bookings/backlog still quite strong on the CC, so that's not great from the short side. But they've got a tough Q1 comp. And the upcoming Q1 bottom line could take a serious hit if no more milestone payments.
Guess now we know why the TAIT selling. Q4 was terrible! Revenues dropped below $1M in Q4. Yikes. Q4 operating income around breakeven. Not sure why business is tanking for them?
Good news is the stock barely down on the poor report. Likely supported by the healthy dividend & balance sheet. But if we see more quarters like Q4, this one is headed lower imo
Congrats on the 30% gain today. Awesome on an ugly day for the broader markets. But didn't VTSI recognize a $3M milestone payment in Q4? That woulda been almost pure profit. Without that, the quarter woulda looked much different...
From the earnings PR-
Gross profit increased 64% to $26.7 million from $16.3 million in 2022. Gross profit margin was 70%, an increase compared to 57% in 2022. The increase in gross profit margin was primarily due to the aforementioned increase in revenue while maintaining cost of sales in line with 2022 levels. Also contributing to this increase was an unusual event of the Company’s receiving a $3 million kickoff milestone payment in connection with a contract for custom work, for which no significant costs were associated.
And the CC-
Our gross profit for 2023 increased 64% to $26.7 million or 70% of revenue compared to $16.3 million or 57% of revenue in the prior year period. For the fourth quarter, gross profit increased 58% to $8.4 million or 83% of revenue from $5.3 million or 61% of revenue in the fourth quarter of 2022. The increase in gross profit margin for both the 3- and 12-month periods can be attributed to increased sales alongside a decrease in the cost of sales. Thanks to operational efficiencies as well as an initial milestone payment from a contract with no significant associated costs.
VTSI bucking the trend today. Popping 20% premarket after posting a strong Q4. But was there a $3M boost to gross margins in Q4?
Gross profit increased 64% to $26.7 million from $16.3 million in 2022. Gross profit margin was 70%, an increase compared to 57% in 2022. The increase in gross profit margin was primarily due to the aforementioned increase in revenue while maintaining cost of sales in line with 2022 levels. Also contributing to this increase was an unusual event of the Company’s receiving a $3 million kickoff milestone payment in connection with a contract for custom work, for which no significant costs were associated.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/virtra-reports-fourth-quarter-full-100000737.html
Figured on SGRP. Seems like a pretty glaring error. Think this one had accounting issues in the past. Wonder why.
Still not sure why the $1,342,000 of net income attributable to non-controlling interest was so high in Q4? And why is that line reported as net (income) loss. Looks like another error.
Same here on VIRC. Couldn't find the updated investor presentation they talked about this morning. Oof these guys need help with PR. Market seems to like the news, so guess someone found it!
On SGRP I noticed the $771K gain in other income, somewhat offset by the $408K loss on sale of business. Plus the $1,342,000 in net income from non-controlling interest seemed out of whack.
Edit--is the $771K gain in other income supposed to be a loss?? Otherwise the numbers don't add up.
TSSI had a nice report Thurs after the bell. Stock has doubled from .30's to .60's in the past few weeks. But they're an AI play now? I can see AI hype driving this one up over $1. Or maybe there will be some profit taking after the recent run. Picked up a tiny amount this morning for fun. Would add more on a pullback.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tss-inc-reports-fourth-quarter-200000663.html
Good instincts on SGRP. They posted a favorable Q4 earnings comp this morning. Looks like Q4 boosted by some 1-timers, but stock still flying premarket on volume. Up over 60% at one point! Congrats to those holding.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/spar-group-inc-reports-fourth-120000830.html
Maybe so on DRX/ADFJF. I've still got plenty so want it to keep moving higher. But if ANY stock I own goes up 15% in 3 days on no news, I'm selling some. To each their own.
If you've had a large DRX position since 2019...the stock spent most of that time languishing around $2 & below...until mid 2023. Must have been a frustrating hold watching DRX do nothing for years while the broader market soared, including the meme stock frenzy. So with the stock finally rocketing from $2 to $10 since last summer, you should be thrilled to take some profits.
Nice rebound on ADFJF this week. Up a quick 15% since Monday. I'm trimming a few. Just to guarantee a blowout earnings report next month :)
TAYD doing better than I expected today. Considering the stock had already doubled in recent months...and the 15% sequential slide in backlog.
TAYD high of $52 so far today. In hindsight, a nice scalp at the $45 open. Oh well. I'm not touching it up here. Earnings & balance sheet are great, but seems plenty fairly valued with the sequential backlog dip. Stock does have plenty of momo...and this market loves momo.
BOSC comment might bode well for ELTK upcoming Q1 results?
Here's a quote from the BOSC CEO in their earnings report this morning-
"The fourth quarter results of 2023 were weak as compared to those of the fourth quarter of 2022 due to the war that started in October 2023. However, during the first quarter of 2024, the business environment in Israel has begun to recover. In addition, most of our business is linked to the Israeli defense market that has been showing increased demand."
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bos-reports-financial-results-fourth-123000023.html
Yeah no clue how TAYD management convinced that guy to sell a block of shares so cheap. He must be sick watching the stock hit new highs in the upper $40's. I'm not chasing up here, but TAYD still isn't expensive. Backlog was down some sequentially though.
Looks like AMS proton center in Orlando had a fantastic Q4. Seems to fluctuate each quarter though. And unfortunately the gamma knife biz continues to struggle. They seem to win new business, but then lose other customers. While spending money to do expensive reloads. Just seems like this segment will tread water (at best) for a long time, as it has done for many years now. The new acquisition(s) sound more promising. Will check out the CC later today.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/american-shared-hospital-services-reports-211200714.html
Another impressive quarter for TAYD
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/taylor-devices-announces-third-quarter-122700294.html
Hope it works out on IART. I looked at it for 5 minutes, and that was enough. There's 12 analysts covering it and the company has a market cap of nearly $3 Billion. Not exactly an unknown microcap. Yet the stock still trades at such a 'bargain' price? All these analysts know more about IART (new competition etc) than I ever will. And they don't seem to share your rosy forecast of the stock rising to the $60's & $70's. Instead the stock made a leg lower after the last earnings report a few weeks ago. Even though we're closer to the big 2025 earnings rebound. Maybe the analysts covering IART are wrong and you're right. But that's not a game I want to play. Good luck!
Good luck on IART. Numbers will be down for Q1. They're expecting adjusted earnings of $3.15-3.25 for 2024 vs $3.10 last year, on 4-5% revenue growth. And that's if things go well. Stock seems fairly priced to me in the mid $30's. If earnings rebound nicely in 2025, the stock will move higher. But that's a long way away...
We'll see on ELTK. That insider isn't selling now, so I don't think a major deal. Maybe we don't know as much as him. But we also don't know as much as the investors who bought the offering at $16/share last month.
The annual filing yesterday revealed the backlog. Not a huge increase from the prior year. But very solid considering the backlog was $10M a couple years ago.
Our backlog at December 31, 2023 was approximately $18.1 million compared to a backlog of approximately $16.8 million at December 31, 2022. We include in our backlog all purchase orders scheduled for delivery within the next 12 months.
With the markets ripping higher yet again...and wade now out...I rebought some ELTK today.
Agreed on AATC. Q4 was quite disappointing. But that dividend yield looks very attractive with the stock in the $5's. Just tough to know if the numbers will rebound in Q1...or maybe come in even lower.
I was actually thinking the ugly DRCT Q4 might help show it's not a scam. Because if you were going to create some fictitious Q4 financial results, it sure wouldn't be those!
Ouch on DRCT! Certainly wasn't expecting them to post a Q4 loss (guess that earnings delay last week WAS a bad sign). What were buyers in the $30's thinking. Stock is crashing to the $15's in AH trading...and still looks overpriced.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/direct-digital-holdings-reports-q4-200100135.html