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Market cap today is about $42MM, which isn't high for a biotech company at all, but this company has a lot to prove given the timelines that have dragged on. I own shares but considerably underwater today. Hopefully they can turn things around. I'm here for their Q-Sphera platform which has considerable applicability across a huge range of medications and applications.
Actually I don't disagree at all.. I looked closer at Luina and the agreement and this one seems pretty small indeed. As best I can tell, Luina is not a heavy hitter, but may want to use C1 as a springboard to put them on the map. The terms of the agreement gives them 1 year to have started using C1 in at least a trial, so they're not expecting much revenue from this anytime soon. Nevertheless, to have given away 20% of company when they could easily have kept 100% and used a CHO line... shows they find tremendous value in it. But that's still hypothetical.
I heard an interview recently with the CEO where he acknowledges there's still a credibility hurdle to do big deals with BP, which is why they're spending some of their own funds doing things like the AAV tuning, and humanizing the cell-line. If either of those initiatives is successful it would be a game changer. Without them, they may just continue to keep signing small/mid-sized deals and start to see revenue streams grow. Still, a compelling stock to be in at these levels.
Very underwhelming conf call just now. More blah blah about commercial potential and how they're now an "asset light" company (they have always said that).
They are still only in a "prototype" phase of the B-TRAN, and seeking partnerships with Universities and government funds/grants for R&D.
In other words, there is still zero commercial traction. Not even one LOI.. just "customer sampling".
In their own words, commercialization is "time consuming" as most customers will want something proven. Initial revenues will likely be government funding and partnerships.
Looks like this stock is going nowhere for at least 6-12 more months.
Today's PR was more proof of commercial progress, but admittedly it didn't provide any sense of value or of timeframes for the deal -- two things the market needs in order to act on it decisively.
For me, this company has a sufficiently solid history of revenue derived from similar licensing deals, and they have an impressive list of existing partners/licensees in the bio/pharma space. So these deals are precisely the foundation they need (and are pursuing) to build a long-term cash cow from their C1 platform.
The market has a short-term view of the stock price. I have a long-term view of an investment.
Downside is pretty well protected IMO, but upside could be anywhere from 5-20x within 3 years. Up to 50x is conceivable.
20% of net sales, plus other fees.. the C1 platform can become a formidable revenue source for Dyadic. Imagine similar deals on dozens of drugs and vaccines, all the while they retain IP. Talk about multiple shots on goal .. in their case it's literally hundreds of shots of goal, all without them having to pay for expensive trials. This is a multi-billion dollar platform in the making. Patience here will be generously rewarded, IMO. Market cap today just $90MM.
Looks like Luina is already setup for export to the US and Europe also, so this is great.
Terrific news! This is how it starts...a trickle of new agreements that build to a formidable revenue source for the company. I like how niche this is.. leaving tons of room for more agreements like it.
Does anyone know the Australian process for approving animal vaccines? I wonder how soon this JV may bear fruit?
The back-half of 2019 should be THE turning point for RedHill Bio, assuming the NDA filing for Talicia is granted. Huge upside potential here, but still some risk.
My IB says it's the 201 rule that kicked in apparently, not a supply issue. Will likely be removed tomorrow.
As soon as some of my VFF shares become LT over the next few weeks, I may sell some of them and buy more DYAI.
not related to Helius Medical in anyway way.. just a dumb bot. Fake news.
Seems you haven't followed this company very long. This is their PPSA IP that was supposed to be worth tens or hundreds of millions. They built their own line of power converters based on it over 5 years ago, but failed to generate any meaningful sales despite the enormous market in renewable energy. They managed to find a single IP licensee. So $500k is cash is a pittance. 150k shares in the other company.. who knows. $1m of liabilities off their books.. that's good but big picture is that this sale was a fire sale and the benefit to the shareholders is negligeable. Only B-TRAN can save them now, but will they succeed with it? Time will tell.
They have 25 million shares if fully diluted (maybe a bit less with the recent cancellation of options), so not much. It just helps extend the runway they have before needing more funds. They had cash of $3.2MM at the start of the year (and no debt) but we don't know their new burn rate. Hopefully lean enough to get them down the road to a B-TRAN licensing deal with up-front payments.
I have no idea what the shares of Pathion are worth, they're a private co.
Well, the market seems to like the news (current market cap of $23MM though), but how long will this run last? They need to show serious interest in their B-TRAN IP. I still have hope.
So they sold PPSA for $500k in cash, $1MM in liabilities, and 150k shares in Pathion (worth what?). What a joke. Such a great technology but a complete inability to commercialize it.
While their B-TRAN technology could be bigger, I don't see how the largely same team will have any more success licensing that. We'll see.
They are sheep (the sellers). Know what you own. I sold some of my VFF a week ago but really feel like I should take advantage of this drop to get back in. It's still a strong long-term hold IMO.
Newton failed to take "escape velocity" into consideration... LABS seems to have it.
I did like the premise of this company at first and I still hold shares (way underwater, including warrants). Their team has deep knowledge of the FDA processes, and approach seemed to be finding undervalued drugs due to trials that failed for reasons that have less to do with true efficacy (underpowered, unclear endpoints, poor candidate targeting), or finding complementary compounds.. I thought held promise.
For me it was the farcical Consensi deal that turned me off this company. Coeptis is a bogus partner.. a brand new company run by people with zero experience selling drugs. It wreaked of desperation.
I'm still holding shares though, and am very patient when it comes to biotech/pharma, so I'm happy to wait 5 more years if needed, on the merit of their other drugs (and somewhat renewed hope with the recent acquisition). I would consider closing my position if they make another bad move like the Coeptis deal though.
MEDIF can create/generate more revenue as they have the capacity for it already today. DYAI has to "find" theirs though licensing. The counterpart to that is that MEDIF is "limited" by their production capacity, whereas DYAI has no limits (except "the sky" as the CEO himself says).
I'm not sure Nasdaq uplist will help immediately as until or unless they announce some revenue-producing deals, there is still considerable risk here. But if they do get traction, then it's likely to multiply quickly, along with the share price IMO.
This kind of business screams acquisition by BP or a CDMO. Or they may play the long game and build their C1 platform into a formidable licensing cash cow.
(agreed there is 10x ++ to this stock if the platform can do what they expect .. which all signs already point to it doing)
The Registrant’s common stock to be registered hereunder has been approved for listing on the NASDAQ Capital Market of The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC under the symbol “DYAI.”
Nice. Let's see if they can't attract some institutional investors now.
I'm long DYAI.
Consider also that much of the R&D they're doing is done by contracted consultants in foreign countries and/or members of the client team who pay Dyadic for the right to use and tweak their platform. They only have 6 employees of the US entity.
Their share buyback of over $20MM is all the proof of skin in the game that I need.
I'm content for now.. I'm sitting on a not-so-modest pile of shares now and will play my strongest hand: patience.
Great buying opp for the patient investor. Here we have an innovative tech, with regulatory clearance in Canada and currently being commercialized at 2 clinics (with 3 more expected this year). US FDA already acknowledged the device's use has no AE's, they merely didn't see a justification in the metrics from the trials. Which seems crazy given that patients in Canada literally asked to meet the company to thank them personally for this life-changing product.
Stock is up 20% since the delayed earnings call.. but the volume is uninspiring. Odd that 10 days later there is still no news. Anything material will have to be 8K'd, and the only hint we have so far is the stock option forfeiture announced April 4. Any ideas what that could foretell? Possibly a new strategic investor who doesn't think management deserves their options (who would disagree!)?
On April 4, 2019, Ideal Power Inc. (the “Company”) entered into Award Forfeiture Agreements (“Forfeiture Agreements”) with Lon E. Bell, Chief Executive Officer, President and Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Company (the “Board”), R. Daniel Brdar, BTRAN Chief Commercial Officer and a member of the Board, Timothy W. Burns, Chief Financial Officer, and David B. Eisenhaure, a member of the Board. Pursuant to the Forfeiture Agreements, these individuals voluntarily forfeited their equity award grants with a grant date prior to January 1, 2018.
IMO after today's drop it will be. FDA denied them "Do Novo" status, but they're already underway commercializing the PoNS in Canada with a minimum of revenue of $1.6-$2MM this year based solely on the 2 signed clinics. There's only upside to that number.
Uplist to NASDAQ should help with that. I'm still nibbling at these prices, this company has enormous potential.
IMO it's the hint-dropping that Strachan did on Midas the other day about partnering with a CP or beverage company to help them go to market without the need for any other supplier, and the apparently imminent announcement about this...
Thanks. I listened again, and here was my take-away:
On commercialization:
C1 is a platform technology, not "cure cancer or go broke"
dozens even hundreds of shots on goal
addresses multiple industries: therapeutic proteins, vaccines, metabolites, potentially viral vectors, etc
On balance sheet:
41.5MM in cash, no debt
8-10MM burn if zero revenue
a single license agreement likely enough to be profitable
in 2020 expect to have one or more license deals
so years of runway, no need to raise funds
"unlimited potential valuation"
"one of the safest bets on the street"
CEO spent $6MM of own profits from DuPont sale to buy back shares
On reaching profitability:
in the past and industrial deals lead them to $10MM (Shell), $6MM (BASF), $15MM (Abengoa))
"expect much bigger up-front fees in pharma that with industrial"
On becoming a CDMO:
Yes, would consider if the time & conditions were right.
Thermo Fisher bought CDMO Patheon for $5bn (using single-use reactors and using vastly inferior CHO platform)
"If we can demonstrate that C1 can produce human-like proteins in high-quality and low cost, the sky is the limit"
Did anyone else tune into the Virtual lnvestor Conference today where Dyadic presented? I was on but only able to half listen... there was a question about whether Dyadic would consider becoming a CDMO, to which Mark answered yes and proceeded to make the comparison to another CMO that was acquired by some BP recently for $5bn I believe.. but I didn't fully hear it. If anyone here heard that part, please reply. There is no replay available yet :(
The CEO clearly has iron-clad conviction about the potential value in the C1 platform, and while he's been [justifiably] careful not to put a figure on it, it seems to me it's in the multiple billion dollar range.
https://www.vox.com/2019/4/3/18293950/why-is-insulin-so-expensive
Seems to me we have an alternative with C1 that would allow BP to lower their prices and still reap huge profits.
Indeed that would be the quickest way to exit from here, but they may establish a substantial amount of licensing agreements that come with royalty payments that, over time, pay out a lot more.
I would not be surprised if they'd already turned away expressions of interest as the price wasn't right. To hear Emalfarb talk about the value of the platform to BP, it seems like they're looking for a multiple of those other comparisons he mentioned.
One of the podcasts somebody posted here the other day had the company saying they were generating a "record 10kg per day" of oils, which seems very low to me. If that's correct, and as best I can tell that's about 30kg of flower, so 660kg/month, which is 5% of their current capacity (they'd predicted to be at 50% of capacity by now). Maybe my math or assumptions are wrong, or maybe the issue is source flower (helped by today's PR)?
I'm still bullish on the company and long on their stock, but would appreciate others chiming in with their thoughts on numbers...
I think I've listened to that Roth presentation 4 times already.. and every time it sounds more compelling. Mark's message has been consistent back as far at 8 years ago, and even after the sale of the platform for industrial use to DuPont over 2 years ago, he said they'd need 2-3 years to continue R&D for the bio-pharma space, and they've done just that. Their yields, purity, and costs have exceed their own initial expectations. Huge upside potential here. Nasdaq will bring many eyes.
Delayed earnings call today due to "ongoing developments". Could be ominous, could be positive.. hard to tell (market appears to think it may be positive).
The market cap on this company is a mere $6MM ... hard not to want to gamble a bit down here.. so I threw a little at it today. Ironically I now hold more shares than I ever did before when I first invested at about $8.
If they're smart, they'll just sell the IP to their PPSA (they never managed to sell their own converters) and focus entirely on B-TRAN. But even then, with the commercial blunder that was PPSA, there are no guarantees they can do better with B-TRAN, regardless of how good a technology is it. (betamax vs. VHS anyone?)
News: Resonant Inc. Expands Relationship with Its Largest Tier 1 Customer
Mar. 29, 2019 7:00 AM
Two new designs include a high-performance filter targeted specifically to compete with higher-cost BAW solutions
GOLETA, CA / ACCESSWIRE / March 29, 2019 / Resonant Inc. (RESN), a leader in transforming the way radio frequency, or RF, front-ends are being designed and delivered for mobile handset and wireless devices, signed two new license agreements with an existing Tier 1 filter customer, another ongoing validation in the confidence Resonant's customers have in the power of its Infinite Synthesized Networks® (ISN®) software platform.
The new license agreements include a design for a high-performance filter using TC-SAW that will compete with current higher cost BAW solutions and a single package multi-band duplexer to address non-carrier aggregation cases with China handset vendors. The designs leverage Resonant's ISN platform, which significantly reduces time to market for these complex designs.
''These two new license agreements, for designs of high-performance SAW filters targeted to compete with current, more expensive BAW solutions and to address the sizeable China mobile handset market, demonstrate the power and flexibility our customers find using our ISN platform,'' stated George B. Holmes, CEO of Resonant. ''As our ISN platform can also significantly reduce time to market, our customer believes there is the potential for sampling and revenue from these designs as early as late 2019.''
Same here.
During the Roth conference Q&A, when asked about the value of the platform, Mark mentioned two comparisons:
Glycophy bought by Merck for $420MM in 2007
Protein Sciences (Baculovirus platform) bought by Sanofi Pasteur for $650MM
It's clear they believe C1 to be vastly superior to either of these, and are engaging with as many pharma's as possible to advance specific programs, and increase visibility and value. And with their cash on-hand they're in absolutely no rush to sell
Listen to the webcast from the 24:30 mark to get a sense of the market opportunity and the platform's value and Mark's confidence.
Market cap today: $85MM
Great presentation at Roth last week -- succinct and exuding confidence.
http://wsw.com/webcast/roth33/dyai/
Also some notes from the call earlier:
are fully reporting per SEC rules
nasdaq approval imminent (some outstanding comments)
Q1 initiated projects including AAV on C1
2018 : 9 paid POC collaborations
2019 so far: 2 funded POCs research collab with top 25 pharma
various stages of negotiations POCs / research progs and other collabs with large and small biotech co's
> 100 NDA's and "several dozen material transfer agreements" signed to date
pipeline bulging with opportunity
variety of negotiations
a lot of with Big Pharma, some with CDMOs
expect more deals to come.. 2 or more in Q2 alone
Investment report summary from Tailwinds Research from about a month ago: https://tailwindsresearch.com/2019/02/dyai-looking-increasingly-compelling/
Holding >17k shares at C$2.24
They have $45MM in cash, no debt, a low burn rate (~$7MM), platform that is significantly cheaper and more efficient than CHO-based gene expression, have proven the viability in industrial applications (IP sold to Dupont in 2015) and they have big pharma paying for on-going R&D. Huge potential.
If they manage to "humanize" it (which they expect by mid-2019), their addressable market is instantly much bigger.
I lied about waiting to take a more substantial position... I have just doubled my holdings today. Though I still struggle with determining the potential valuation of this company.. Nasdaq listing seems imminent, as does a lucrative series of deals as early as the back half of 2019, so the share price seems certain to rise.
If they do, as since (I believe) they are SEC compliant with their reporting, will the uplisting be automatic? Once on a senior exchange I would expect they'll attract a lot of eyeballs and the price could rise before any new significant partnerships or licensing. I started with a modest position a few weeks ago but will definitely increase my position as the company makes commercial announcements.
Any idea what their TAM is? They don't talk at all about the potential value in their platform, but it seems to me it's many many multiples of the price they got for it from Dupont.