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June end margin debt numbers are out and are still very high. http://www.nyxdata.com/nysedata/asp/factbook/viewer_edition.asp?mode=table&key=3153&category=8
These numbers will have to wind down some day.
SPY has millions (3+ million) of PUTs open between 1250 and 1150. That will provide extreme support.
On other hand, if SPY does go down, it will be fast and furious but chances of that happening is very slim given huge amounts of PUTs.
Look at Dec and Jan Puts as well. There are huge number of PUTs at 1150, 1200 already.
NAMO closed below -90 today. This has happened only twice since 87. Once in 87 crash, and once in Oct 2008.
Bot times, NAMO stayed below -90 for four to five days and there were +/- 10% gyrations. But the market turned higher from there. This happened right at the bottom.
NAMO was also below -90 for one day in oct 2009, but market kept on climbing after that. So that was more of blip than significant event.
NAMO closed at about -60 yesterday and -40 day before.
Market has to climb from here, but there can be large gyrations.
I was short since Mar end. I covered at about noon with small profit. My asskie is still sore from me kicking myself for covering right before the carnage. I am positioned long for tomorrow. Entered long near close. But this is a short term trade (for a day or two).
Experttrader1, nice signals got you have. I appreciate your perseverance and sticking your neck out and posting your signals against common flow, more than signals itself. Keep it up.
Back to lurk mode.
RSI5 is 94. Last time it happened was in Mar 2010. Before that it happened twice in 1998, and then once in 1995. Every time including Mar 2010, NDX went up by 10%. So taking loss on my shorts here. Sitting out for now.
I am taking some risk here and going in full short for atleast till EOD tomorrow.
NDX, S&P, DJ all are above their respective round numbers (2000, 1200, 11000). Daily RSI, Weekly RSI are very high.
Now comes hard part, stay and/or run over their round numbers.
The RSIs (daily and weekly) are very high. But they were very high when bubble was starting form in late 1990s.
I think it is a pull back or 'go nowhere' time. But then there are bubble like conditions which existed in late 90s.
Watch Semis for short term direction and Wilshire for long term direction.
NDX will gap up over 2000, S&P500 over 1200, DJ over 11000 and run, run hard. There are too many round numbers. After gap up, shorts will start covering and will make the indices run hard which will not stop before they run for atleast anther 5%.
This is looking more and more like somebody with deep pocket is covering huge amount of shorts.
If you can give credit card, then it is best. If not then, travelers check are good. Small shops will not accept travelers check. All banks will accept those. I would not recommend cash more than 500. Travelers check are safe. Once my friends suitcase was stolen, he received travelers check replacement in 24 hours by FedEx.
Sorry Duplicate.
Uptick rule. http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/2010/02/24/reuters-sec-curbs-short-selling-after-10-stock-drop/?mod=rss_BOLBlog
I am disappointed by that 10% thing.
Uptick rule. Finally some traction on this issue. http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE61I5BR20100219
Is it time to revive those 'UpTick' noise again. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uptick_rule. All noise died when mkts were moving up.
Just to complete the stats.
>>>> The Top 10 Percent of Income Earners Paid 71 Percent of Federal Income Tax
The top 10 percent of the Income Earners got 50 percent of all the income.
GDP number is now meaning less. GDP number includes products made in china by US companies. So the higer GDP doesn't mean that it is creating jobs in US. One job sent to china, really result in 10 jobs going there. It's time to bring manufacturing back. People should be willing to pay higher prices for products. Our quest to lower prices has brought us into this mess.
Thanks George, but that is budget v/s expenditure. I am looking revenues (receipts) v/s expenditure over the years so that I can see whether deficit is due to reckless spending by congress or by free fall in receipts or both.
This is what is happening all over the place. This is just an example. Chasing the low cost labor by big corporations has ruined America.
Read the story.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120450124543206313.html
POMPANO BEACH, Fla. -- Howard Shaffer opened a small factory here in 1995 to make sneakers for Adidas AG -- but also to make a point.
Having spent the previous decade setting up plants in China to manufacture shoes for big U.S. brands, he thought he knew how to revive the moribund U.S. footwear industry: use heavy automation run by a handful of skilled workers instead of relying on large numbers of low-paid Chinese laborers.
It never quite worked. Within a few years, he dropped the idea of making sneakers, and decided to adapt the factory he had built to make high-end custom shoes, relying on computer imaging to fit customers from around the U.S. and Canada remotely. He changed the name of his company from Brightwood LLC to Otabo LLC, and soon was turning out shoes for $450 or more a pop.
But now, he is throwing in the towel on that venture, too. He closed his factory over the weekend, and is shifting the bulk of his operations to China.
What killed his U.S. factory isn't just competition from Asia's cheap labor, he says. It is the lack of infrastructure needed to make a factory tick, a problem that has bedeviled the few remaining independent shoemakers in the U.S. Finding technicians to fly in on short notice to fix shoe machines was a constant and growing challenge, Mr. Shaffer says, because the number of U.S. companies that make and service machines has dwindled. The suppliers of shoelaces, leather and other basic materials insisted that he buy in batches far larger than made sense for a small-scale producer.
Consider what happened with his supplier of outsoles, which form the bottom part of the shoe. Mr. Shaffer initially found a domestic supplier to provide what he needed at a reasonable price. But a glitch developed about a year ago. One Otabo style required an outsole with two types of polyurethane sandwiched together -- a tough bottom layer that resists wear and a spongy inner layer that makes the shoes more comfortable. It is a more complex process, Mr. Shaffer says, "and so after three years of supplying us, they said they just can't do it that way anymore."
The supplier, Meramec Group Inc. in Sullivan, Mo., says that there just wasn't enough overall demand to justify making the outsoles. "Howard's right," says Thomas Dieckhaus, one of Meramec's family owners. "One of the biggest challenges for the footwear manufacturers that remain in the U.S. is sourcing components. It limits the materials they can use -- and therefore influences the type of footwear that gets manufactured."
The search for eyelets, the small metal rings that line lace holes, was even tougher. Mr. Shaffer was hoping to have customized eyelets with the word "Otabo" molded into the rim. The last major U.S. eyelet producer, Stimpson Co., makes them at a sprawling factory that also happens to be in Pompano Beach. "They told me my order wasn't big enough to be worth their trouble," says Mr. Shaffer, who wanted 5,000 eyelets in two different metal finishes. Being able to buy in small quantities is crucial in a fashion business like shoes, he adds, because consumers demand many choices.
Kevin Gentilin, a sales manager at Stimpson, says he doesn't have any record of Mr. Shaffer's inquiry, but that the company usually requires a minimum order of at least 100,000 eyelets. "It has to be enough to justify us setting up a press and ordering the metal," he says.
Mr. Shaffer eventually got the parts from Taiwan.
One thing that made the constant battles with suppliers irksome for Mr. Shaffer was knowing how much easier it was for shoemakers in Asia. "There are places in China where you have city blocks made up of nothing but makers of shoe materials," he says ruefully. "You can buy 10,000 laces or 10 laces."
He learned Mandarin while serving in the U.S. Air Force and ultimately settled in Taiwan, where he met and married his wife and business partner, Jennifer. He joined Nike Inc. in 1981 and spearheaded that company's efforts to set up manufacturing operations in mainland China at a time when almost no Western shoe companies were doing so.
He eventually left Nike to launch his own business, making shoes in Chinese factories for Western companies, which typically outsource production to foreign factories. He and Jennifer would fly back and forth from Taiwan to China every week, a grueling lifestyle that led to their decision to build the Florida factory, where they eventually employed 40 people.
David Murphy, chief executive of closely held Red Wing Shoe Co. in Red Wing, Minn., an iconic American boot maker that has kept a large manufacturing operation in the U.S., says even a larger-scale company like his, with annual sales of more than $400 million, has to worry about the shoe industry's withering infrastructure.
Almost 99% of the 2.4 billion shoes purchased in the U.S. every year are imported, 86% of them from China. The problem of obtaining components is especially acute when it comes to materials uniquely designed for shoes, as opposed to generic items such as cardboard boxes that are used by a wide array of manufacturers. This is one reason why Red Wing prepares its own shoe leather, says Mr. Murphy.
Mr. Murphy notes he just got a call from a small custom shoe producer in northern Minnesota who often turns to Red Wing for supplies. "They were having trouble getting shoe laces," he says.
Mr. Shaffer insists he isn't melancholy about the shutdown, though he poured $20 million of his own fortune into a venture only to discover that it wouldn't work. He won't disclose specific sales figures, though he says he never made a profit. He did earn praise from within the industry: A trade magazine catering to the factory-automation industry pronounced him "Progressive Manufacturer of the Year" in 2005, picking tiny Otabo for an award that usually goes to a large multinational.
That same year, then-Gov. Jeb Bush visited the factory, which is nestled in the back of a palm-dotted industrial park, and was fitted with a custom pair of Otabo shoes. A picture of Mr. Bush standing in front of the plant hangs in the front lobby, along with an electronic scan of the politician's feet and a never-cashed check from Gov. Bush.
"I really thought I could show how this industry had a future here," says the 59-year-old Mr. Shaffer, standing last week amid a cluster of boxes destined for China in the back of his emptying factory. Everything had to be out of the space by the weekend, which meant working late into the night disconnecting cables from machines and piling boxes on pallets sturdy enough to withstand a long ocean journey.
As part of dismantling the factory, Mr. Shaffer advertised many of the machines he won't need in China on the Web site Craigslist. Jeffrey Spilfogel, the vice president of sales and manufacturing at SunTex Group LLC, which makes parts for swimsuits and bras in nearby West Palm Beach, contacted him three months ago, and the two have become friends. On a recent day, Mr. Spilfogel came by to disconnect electrical wires in preparation for taking one of the big machines.
"Howard definitely encountered a lot of barriers, but I think it was partly because of the business he's in -- the shoe business has really been wiped out," Mr. Spilfogel says. He says the bra business also has largely moved out of the U.S., but he has survived because many large U.S. retailers insist foreign producers still use his components in their final products.
Is there a chart which shows revenues v/s expenditure instead of just deficit ? Just curious.
Edit: Never mind. I got it here http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/daily-global-commentary/2010-01-14.html
This is the one I was interested in.
.
Receipts have been falling much much faster than the spending. It will continue unless jobs start to come back. Google is only one which is standing up. Others are ..... (fill your expletive). Read more here http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aOyMuHml05Ak
First small jobs were sent, then more research job were sent, then the technology was sent. Name a new product from CES 2010 which was developed in USA. Majority were not even US companies.
This is not sustainable. From now on, it will be who blinks first.
Thanks
I agree with unions. But union are limited to big manufacturing like cars, planes etc. Small manufacturing units didn't have unions, like toys, shoes, scale, pencils, erasers, paper clips, and thousands of other small factories.
This Thanksgiving, I decided to buy toys which are made in USA. But believe it or not, I could not find a single toy in store which was made in USA. I decided that I will buy American Girl dolls and I was shocked to find out those were also made in China.
I gave up and came home tired. Though I found some toys on the net which were made in USA. Looks like some people are fighting the manufacturing war at their level.
Seriously, are all these people um-employed/un-employable ? Why do companies keep sending jobs out of country, why can't they employ these people ? Is minimum wage a factor ? Is skill set a factor ? Skills can be developed over the year in house rather than spending money over seas. All these question blows my mind away. Somebody has to break this cycle of sending jobs/manufacturing outside. And that somebody has to be us (common people) not CEOs or government.
Thank You Chi2 and all contributors to this board for a very high quality forum. Thank You. Thank you all.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/33434637/site/14081545
S&P 500 Earnings Leaderboard: Biggest Surprises Season to Date
Published: Thursday, 22 Oct 2009 | 2:37 PM ET
By: Ariel Nelson
Director of Market Data & Content Services
Today is the biggest earnings day of the season and as of this afternoon, just over 30% of the S&P 500 companies have reported earnings.
Here's how things stand so far:
Companies Exceeding EPS Estimates: 78%
Companies Matching EPS Estimates: 8%
Companies Falling Below EPS Estimates: 14%
At the same point last quarter, 16% of the companies reporting had missed EPS estimates and 76% had beaten estimates.
Looks like it is time to revive uptick rule talks. All that talk earlier this year fell into cracks after the rally started. Here is latest status which is old (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uptick_rule).
I am curiously following ORD because of his SPX short position. Want to see if he will be able to turn profit on that trade or will be able to exit with small loss, or loss gets bigger. His current loss is 21% which I believe is too big for a person his caliber.
Though the daily indicators (MACD, STO) are overbought, but weekly indicators are not fully there yet, and monthly indicators have just started to move up from oversold. Daily indicators remained overbought for sometime when market recovered from 2002-2003 lows.
Roubini Says U.S. Dollar Will Weaken
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a.SW_71xPhjA
Exactly my thoughts. This is what I think will bring jobs back to USA. And till jobs are not back, economy will NOT improve, no matter what. When one job goes abroad, it takes many with it, e.g. if one IT job joes, then many things are not required any more (stationary, electricity, furniture, faclities, mail, equipment ....), you get the picture.
Only the piece of puzze which I couldn't solve was what happens to Yen and Euro. Looks like Roubini has the answer. Roubini says they have to remain stable wrt to USD. So in effect, China and India currency has to go up. This is exactly what I think is required. That will help ewas job drain in US and europe, and will strenthen China and India economy as well and can integrate with west better just like Japan, Korea, Singapore etc.
And I do not thinks Dollar will crash. A significant drop (20 - 30%), may be 40 - 50 in extreme case, but not any lower. US in not going to become third world country.
Just my opinion.
Look like Mr Calente has perfected the art of predicting the DOOM. I do not see it as good prediction. Also the prediction of US become an un developed nation is hillarious. There are examples in history which shows when a strong nation fails economically, it can only be resolved by war among other stronger nation. There will be war, but it will not be weapon war, but economic. Other nations will try to become number one. But US will not become undeveloped. It will stay developed nation, and may become stronger, but may not remain number 1. Just my opinion.
On other side, did Mr calente predicted the good things eg. rise of cell phones (every body in world will have a cell phone), rise of computers (every body in world will have computer), rise of internet (every body will be connected by internet and they can communicate instaneously) and the list goes on. It's easy to predict for a thing to fall which is high up in air, but is not easy to predict things which will rise.
Back to trading.
Normaly BPs will oscillate, but they can stay up for extended period e.g. last three quarters of 2003.
Finviz is a nice site. Saw it first time after following your links.
Thanks for info. Now that markets are recovering nicely. I would be more comfertable with the recovery, if I can see some manufacturing bases start to come back to USA. It is very sad to see grim picture for now. http://money.cnn.com/2009/08/06/news/economy/detroit_food/index.htm?postversion=2009080608
Anybody knows what's happening to that uptick rule ? I searched around, but all I find is request for comments by June. But June is long gone and haven't seen any updates to the rule any where.
Thanks.
ETFCrazy