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China Mining Association of Canada Conference
CMAC 2009 - Beijing
On September 7th to 8th, 2009, the first China Mining Association of Canada (CMAC) Conference will be held in the city of Beijing, China. Over 200 of China mining industry leaders and elite business investors will be expected to attend this forum style conference.
This conference will provide an interactive platform for the Canadian governments, mining industry, legal and financial firms to present a comprehensive overview about Canadian mineral resources, mining technologies, investment opportunities and capital markets to the powerful business decision-makers and investors in China.
Following the second day of conference on September 8th, 2009, there will be an invitation-only reception that will be held at the Canadian Embassy in Beijing. This reception will be an important networking event for the government and mining industry representatives of both China and Canada.
If you are a junior or senior mining company looking to promote your company in China, for either business or investment purposes, CMAC will help to introduce you to suitable Chinese partners for your company or properties. We will not only assist you in promoting mining related business opportunies, but we will also put you in touch with the top companies within the Chinese mining industry who are in need of advanced mining/exploration equipment, technologies and services.
http://www.chinamining.ca/Default.aspx?alias=www.chinamining.ca/en
Economic Methods of Valuing Mineral Assets
Graham A. Davis
Division of Economics and Business
Colorado School of Mines
Golden, CO 80401
gdavis@mines.edu
August 1, 2002
http://www.bvappraisers.org/contentdocs/Conference/Graham_Davis_Economic_Method.pdf
This has been posted before, but it's useful for discussions of proper valuations of mining interests at various stages of the game.
For anyone that still believes in the rational market theory, I submit to you the chart of Sarissa Resources as my counter-argument.
99% of the public has no clue what Niobium or REE's are, but 100% know what gold is.
SRSR could double in share price on just a small discovery of gold, even though it pales in comparison to what we have at Nemegosenda.
QUARANTINE DETENTION ORDER
By authority of Chapter 381 and 252, Florida Statutes and Chapter 64D-3, Florida Administrative Code _____ CHD Order #____________. Pursuant to the authority vested in this office by Chapter 381, Florida Statutes, and by your refusal to comply with the Orders of the _______ County Health Department, you, __________ _(name)____________
are hereby DETAINED under QUARANTINE in the following secure facility, ___________________________. You are further classified as non-compliant with quarantine because after you were counseled about a communicable disease or unsafe condition that poses a threat to the public health, and methods to minimize the risk to the public and, despite such counseling, you indicated an intent by (words or actions)
to expose the public to ________________. All other reasonable means of obtaining your compliance with quarantine have been exhausted; no less restrictive alternative exists.
http://www.scribd.com/doc/19348310/FL-Quarantine-to-Detention-Facility-Order-Apr-09-252
http://www.scribd.com/doc/19348504
French Prepare for Mandatory Swine Flu Vaccination as part of a scalable emergency response to pandemic H1N1, a leaked official memo suggests.
http://www.sante-jeunesse-sports.gouv.fr/IMG/pdf/Circulaire_vaccination_090824.pdf
Poor Translation of opening paragraphs.
Subject: Planificationl ogistiqued an e vaccinationc GAINST campagned the nouveauv irus A (HlNr). Enforcement action plan for pandemic influenza control vaccines (mesureP re l4), to I'adaptationd u plan vaccinationa ux caractéristiquedsu viruses and
populationsto Uche (m esureP re 32), and C6 form attached map u (t stratégiee modalities of vaccination organizationof e) PJ Fact. Faced with the threat of pandemic influenza A viruses of the new (tIlNl), the Government intends to establish a health response Exceptional scalable for the period 2009-2010 (see sheet nol). In view of difficulties, rsion of the pandemic in France during
I'automne next, he decided in particular to prepare a large vaccination campaign. This solution appeared best able to respond in a timely and forced effrcacité health with the highest possible characteristics of this new virus and the specific production of new vaccines. This campaign has
not intended to renew I'an next. In this context, the Government has ordered doses of vaccine, to be able to propose, if necessary, to the entire population immunization coverage against the new virus.
Yes and no. We are due an update shortly on Shining Tree as per the June Shining Tree PR. This is the same PR that said an update on Nemegosenda was also due shortly. We got the Nemegosenda update, so it seems like we are now overdue for the latest from the Shining Tree property, and I would expect that to be some time this month.
This is all secondary to the HUGE news that you and I both have a gut feeling about. Will that be in Sepetemer, I don't know. But, too many news articles lately about shortages of REE's. The rest of the world is desperately scrambling to find REE's outside of China. It's only a matter of time before the EU, Japan, Canada, or the US realize that it's in their strategic interest to secure sources for these elements, and then realize that Sarissa has the world's second largest Niobium deposit and one that is replete with REE's.
I'm seeing news articles about this daily now. It seems that the Chinese export restrictions on REE's has caused the whole world to scramble to secure the resources they need.
Basically, if you want to have production facilities outside of Inner Mongolia, you are out of luck unless you can find an alternative source for these metals.
China Plays Down Rare Earth Fears
BEIJING – A Chinese official attempted to quell global concerns that China is trying to dominate the market for a class of metal ores called rare earth, saying that rather than seeking to prop up prices of the metals, it is trying to attract high-tech manufacturing to Inner Mongolia, the center of its rare-earth resources.
"We do not focus on short-term gains in rare-earth prices," said Zhao Shuanglian, vice chairman of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. "We want rare-earth industries to locate in Inner Mongolia, and we're discussing with government departments to stabilize rare earth prices."
With China controlling more than 90% of the world's output of rare-earth metals, which are used in environmentally friendly technologies such as hybrid-car batteries, and after recent steps by Beijing to reduce mining and exports of the metals, concerns have grown globally of a developing race to control the small but increasingly important market.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125188565571379063.html
New Junior Mining Fund from Sector Investment Managers
"The Junior Mining Fund launches on 7th September 2009. It will be managed by Angelos Damaskos, a specialist in the commodities sector who will invest predominantly in smaller mining companies which have the potential to become the giants of tomorrow.
The fund’s main focus is on gold mining shares, with 70% of the portfolio allocated to this sector at launch, although this is not fixed and can change over time. While commodities in general have performed well this year, gold shares have lagged the sector. Research shows that gold mining shares are the most undervalued they have been relative to the gold price since 1984.
The fund can also invest around 10% in other precious metals like silver, platinum and palladium which have important industrial uses, and 10% in base metal shares like copper and iron-ore which are useful components of infrastructure. Another 10% is allocated to shares in uranium mining companies, which could benefit from growing demand due to an increasing need to provide environmentally friendly ways of generating power. These allocations are subject to change over time depending on market conditions and where the manager identifies companies with the best growth prospects in these sectors."
http://www.h-l.co.uk/funds/Fund-management-news/articles/4922?pr=article&type=hl
See also
http://www.prlog.org/10329295-sector-investment-managers-launches-junior-mining-fund.html
http://www.juniormining.co.uk/index_investmentapproach.htm
I seem to recall someone adding up all of the resources across the Nemegosenda and other Sarissa properties, and I believe that overall calculation was at about $100 billion for everything including the REE's.
But, this was prior to the NI report and before all of the recent news articles on REE's that have been out in the last couple of weeks and before the news of the Chinese 100000 ton Niobium find and subsequent Xinhua article that valued it at $95/lb for Niobium.
I can't even imagine what it all adds up to now!
Nice board here Terb. Like the Ibox setup. Oh, and board marked as a favorite.
I'd take $20/share for my shares. That's about when I figured I'd start thinking about selling a few of them.
I really believe that one of these days we will all wake up to news of a government or large company wanting to buy all of the Niobium we can mine.
We will open to a gap the size of the Grand Canyon and never look back.
Those assay results should be nice.
French Prepare for Mandatory Swine Flu Vaccination as part of a scalable emergency response to pandemic H1N1, a leaked official memo suggests.
http://www.sante-jeunesse-sports.gouv.fr/IMG/pdf/Circulaire_vaccination_090824.pdf
Poor Translation of opening paragraphs.
Subject: Planificationl ogistiqued an e vaccinationc GAINST campagned the nouveauv irus A (HlNr). Enforcement action plan for pandemic influenza control vaccines (mesureP re l4), to I'adaptationd u plan vaccinationa ux caractéristiquedsu viruses and
populationsto Uche (m esureP re 32), and C6 form attached map u (t stratégiee modalities of vaccination organizationof e) PJ Fact. Faced with the threat of pandemic influenza A viruses of the new (tIlNl), the Government intends to establish a health response Exceptional scalable for the period 2009-2010 (see sheet nol). In view of difficulties, rsion of the pandemic in France during
I'automne next, he decided in particular to prepare a large vaccination campaign. This solution appeared best able to respond in a timely and forced effrcacité health with the highest possible characteristics of this new virus and the specific production of new vaccines. This campaign has
not intended to renew I'an next. In this context, the Government has ordered doses of vaccine, to be able to propose, if necessary, to the entire population immunization coverage against the new virus.
It's nice to end the week on a positive note.
Looks like a double bottom and we go up from here.
"Most swing traders are familiar with a double bottom or double top. For this formation to occur, the chart you're looking at should generally show at least fifteen trading days between the two tops or bottoms. The double top or bottom is typically a forecasting formation that applies to Intermediate-term reversals."
At least we agree that it's a great stock!
1. Surprised of the - 60% drop off ?
Why on earth ?
Because Sarissa was and is undervalued, again I'm pointing to the white paper that looked at historical valuation data for companies as they progressed from exploration to mining. Again, the companies looked at were at the SAME stage of the game as Sarissa and saw valuations of AT LEAST 2-3% (10% was typical in the 90's) of the indicated resources. Compare Sarissa to Commerce Resources, and Sarissa is undervalued.
2. With every news release... So, when Sarissa announced Scott Keevil as CEO in November 2007, let's see. Looks like we went up 800% that month.
3."Recent news suggests that they drilled another 3 holes and are waiting assay results......one would expect the results to be on par with the last 9 hole results and Ni report.....so, IMO, the upcoming PR about the results may not have much of an impact on the SP......"
I disagree with your assumptions that these will be on par and not have much impact. Recall that the drilling data suggests that concentrations of niobium increased as you move towards where they are now focusing their current drilling efforts, so I expect this to come in not on par, but better, and I think that announcement would have a positive effect.
4. "i.e. the Hawke report"
Hawkins Report, not Hawke
5. "After each major hyped anticipation rally, the subsequent news release confirming the hype, creates a sell-off.....hence the well known "sell on news" slogan.....and no truer example of that definintion than Sarissa, IMO, lol!! ."
I disagree. This "news" was actually nothing more than confirmation of what was already known from drilling done by Dominion in the 50's. All the NI report did was prove those up to compliance with current standards.
The newsworthy part of the NI reprt was the fact that they proved up more than 2.5 times the Niobium than was expected. This is something that could not have already been factored into the share price, and therefore should have boosted pps.
What's your basis for this claim? Look at what China is doing in Africa.
Your claim took all of 10 seconds to disprove with a simple google search.
http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/zflt/eng/yhjl/t404113.htm
My mind says one of these days, I'm going to wake up to news that Sarissa reached an offtake deal with the Chinese that Keevil is rumored to be meeting with and that they agreed to buy all of what Nemegosenda can produce for $20/lb + adjustments factoring in projected rises in Niobium valuations.
My mind says that Keevil is a man of integrity looking to make Sarissa his legacy. I agree with the company's philosophy as to how they go about evaluating properties, i.e. looking for properties near other successful mines (shining tree), looking in one's backyard, looking for properties that were subeconomic in the past but now in demand due to new technologies (Nemegosenda), and also the ingenious ways of using scint readings to look for REE's (which just proved successful if you look at the blog pics from the SE trenching).
I'll admit I was caught off guard by the decline from .209. I just figured we were reaching a proper valuation. If you look at the white paper that OntaREEo used in his valuation calculations, you will see that we are trading at a fraction of what has historically been seen of exploration companies at this stage of the game, and then combine with the fact those other companies did not have mining royalty running the show. If you compare us to Commerce, we got more goods in the ground, a more favorable site (i.e. able to open pit and not have to backfill), and for us to be appropriately valued using Commerce as a comparison, then we should easily be over 15 cents/share.
This stock is a steal at 7 cents or 70 cents. So, my mindset is to be long and be patient.
1. I don't know what pdf you are talking about.
2. Even if it's 5 years to mine, there is still possibility of an offtake or other deal to speed up that process.
3. Not sure what other stuff you they have to contend with, but Laws in Ontario are favorable to miners
And no need to trade sideways, as there is lots to look forward to in the near future, such as...
1. We still have an update due "shortly" on the Shining Tree property. Possibly some news about a favorable gold find in area 3.
2. We should get an update on the assay results of the 3 new drill cores from Hawke zone.
3. From the new pics on the Nemegosenda blog, it looks like the trenching in the SE zone looks promising, judging by that 5th picture. I'd expect a PR to that effect soon.
4. We should have audited financials soon, as well as news as to how Sarissa is funding their drilling. Possibly news of an uplisting.
My gut says we'll stay above .0625 forever and green close today. IMGO of course.
Not a lot of trading today, tight spread, and a very quiet Ihub board today.
Good. So, can we go up now please?
Wasn't there a gap from close Aug 5th to open Aug 6th? Did that get filled?
I'm a little surprised that the price hasn't picked up towards eod.
I suspect that may be the case. I think they will come whether they expect the dividend or not.
Someone posted the investopedia link that share price typically rises by the amount of the expected dividend, and then falls by that amount once the dividend is realized.
The uncertainty here is that typically dividends are cash, not shares. So, the question becomes what GDSM holders do with their MXMI shares, once those are in their trading accounts.
IMO, GDSM will rise into the end of trading on Friday. (GDSM share price at hod on Friday minus pre-divy news share price)/30 would then be the perceived value of MXMI shares.
If people perceive MXMI as being worth 50 cents a share, then GDSM should hit 2 cents by Friday. Or, if they think people will sell MXMI once it's in their accounts, then GDSM will not go that high.
Am I making any sense?
Good points.
I would imagine it has to do with the uncertainty of what will happen to the share price of MXMI, once the GDSM holders get their shares.
And, some may be waiting to buy until Friday thinking they'll still get the dividend?
OntaREEo based his valuation estimates on historical data and a white paper based on valuations for mining companies at each stage of the game. That's what those estimations are based on, and I think that is still where we should be trading at, regardless of the fact that we had a sell off after the NI report.
Also, I believe Merle is part of an outside firm, which is why it's merleg@shaw.ca and not merleg@sarissaresources.com.
Nobody has insider info. I know I don't. But, I do know how to think for myself and use the information available, apply my own filter, and make up my own mind as to what I think this all means for Sarissa.
Again, I add up the fact that we have financing from an as yet undisclosed source and combine that with the response Microman received from Merle that he can't even hint about and my bat senses tell me that we will soon get news of an offtake or something like that.
What really gets me excited is coming to this conclusion on my own, and then hearing the likes of the true longs on this board like Jim and Onta saying basically the same thing.
Certainly possible, but I think it's more of a chart looking to consolidate before the next leg up. IMO, it looked a little overbought at around 40 cents. Not saying the fundamentals don't justify that price, but technicals looked overbought. I'd say retrace back to 50 day, and then up.
$15/share?
Jim6103 calculated a $12.8 billion profit for mining Nemegosenda assuming a $20/lb price for Niobium. Divide that by 750 million shares.
I have been saying this as well.
My best guess is an offtake deal for the Nemegosenda property. To me, it explains everything. It is the only thing that rises to the level of something that Merle can't hint about. It is the only thing that explains how we have financing to do further drilling and also why the source of financing has not been disclosed.
I don't think you'll have to wait that long for the news that puts you back in the green. Just IMO, but here's my reasoning.
1. We are due an update on Shining Tree
From the June 23rd PR
http://www.sarissaresources.com/pages/posts/sarissa-resources-inc.-shining-tree-property-results63.php
"Updates from both the Shining Tree property and Sarissa's flagship Nemegosenda niobium property are expected shortly. Additionally, Sarissa has retained Edmund Cachia & Co. of Toronto as new Company auditors, and has moved to Capital Transfer Agency Inc. in Toronto as transfer agents."
2. Notice this PR referenced the retaining of Edmund Cachia as auditors and the switching of transfer agents to Capital Transfer Agency of Toronto. This could be for the purposes of uplisting to a more credible exchange.
If you google Edmund Cachia, one of the links that comes up is to the TSX venture exchange. http://infoventure.tsx.com/TSXVenture/TSXVentureHttpController?GetPage=CompanySummary&PO_ID=822570&HC_FLAG1=on
Here you will find that Edmund Cachia is listed as the auditing firm for 3 other TSX-V listed stocks: Darnley Bay Resources, Mustang Minerals, and Peat Resources.
Also, Capital Transfer Agency is "approved by the TSX Venture Exchange and is registered as a transfer agent with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission."
http://www.capitaltransferagency.com/index1.html
3. Micro Man, poster here on Ihub, says he received an email from Merle the IR guy in response to a question Micro asked and the response from Merle was there is something coming that he "couldn't even hint about", which I have interpreted as a hint that we have something big coming soon.
4. When Scott Keevil took over in Nov 2007, he agreed to receive 30 million shares of Sarissa in lieu of a salary for 2 years. he posted a letter to shareholders that outlined Sarissa's strategic vision for the company. He also bought another 1.5 mill at 2 cents per with his own funds. So, he's a believer and has a vested interest in protecting shareholder value and believed in Sarissa enough to add to his holdings. Sarissa has delivered on its promises and are proceeding on schedule. I'm not saying that Scott is selfishly looking out for himself, but I'm inclined to think we'll have something big by November whereby he will have enough company funds to continue drilling and to pay himself a salary.
5. We already have funding from apparently undisclosed sources to conduct further drilling as outlined in the NI report for Nemegosenda. This requires capital that if you look at Sarissa's financials, they did not have to do on their own. My speculation is we may be looking at an offtake agreement that is still being finalized.
Yep, I was just pointing out that by the investopedia benchmark for ex divy valuation, GDSM is undervalued, or it would be trading at a -.01 after ex date.
Isn't the dividend 1 share of MXMI per 30 of GDSM and MXMI was to start at .50 per share, and that equates to 1.67 cents per share of GDSM. So, if the share price of GDSM adjusts accordingly...
From the pictures, it looks like they didn't have to dig too deep to find that nice pretty rock!