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If you look at these other analysts mentioned in this article,
https://www.indiewire.com/2022/05/cinemacon-movie-theaters-q1-earnings-1234722719/
They have estimates of between $8billion and $8.7 billion for the year, which is right in line with what i was coming up with in my last post.
The article i linked has a tone makes it sound bearish, but i even that low end of tbe range $8billion means AMC has a return to profitably very soon.
Using my trusty adjustment factor in my last post of 59% against these industry estimates for box office recipts for 2022,
Then amc ends between $4.72bil - $5.13bil for the year against perhaps $4.5 bil expenses?
$9.1 million more for dr. Strange on Wednesday.
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/date/2022-05-11/?ref_=bo_di_table_1
$11.6 mil total for the day,
Makes about $900 million domestic so far for this quarter now 41 days in.
Excuse the crudity of the comparison here is rough but...
Q1 revs were $1,333,429,948 domestic.
Amc revs at 785.7mil
So the AMC revs for q1 tracked at being roughly 59% of the figure spent during the qtr for all theaters. Obviously understanding my calculation conflates concessions and etc for amc that i included in the numerator but i only included ticket sales in the denominator. Was just easy numbers to obtain for a comparisons sake here.
Nevertheless, assuming 59% holds for q2 and all other things be let alone assumed to be equal, then you can extrapolate out a rev estimate for amc for q2.
Which so far is $900 million domestic through 41 days so far this qtr.
I would assume ticket sales are higher for the 2nd half of q2, but assume it stays similar to the first 41 days that are already in the books
900mil×91days/41days= roughly $2 billion. Using that 59% figure i calculated for q1, then you arrive at 1.18bil for q2.
i also expect it to track a bit higher than that, because the 2nd half of the qtr benefits from summer seasonality boost in ticket sales that are usually a few million a day higher during the summer months compared to other months.
337.4+785.7=$1,123.1 billion of expenses in q1. Assuming that expenses are unchanged in q2.
1.18b-1.12b= 55 million.
So my bet is that AMC is profitable this quarter and minimum of about 10 cents positive eps
Higher if my suspicion holds that the 2nd half of q2 will be even stronger than the first half.
Quarterly Earnings Forecast
Fiscal Quarter EndConsensus EPS* ForecastHigh EPS* ForecastLow EPS* ForecastNumber Of EstimatesOver The Last 4 Weeks Number Of Revisions - UpOver The Last 4 Weeks Number Of Revisions - DownJun 2022-0.22-0.16-0.33303Sep 2022-0.21-0.1-0.37302Dec 2022-0.050.05-0.24301Mar 2023-0.21-0.14-0.25320Jun 2023-0.05-0.02-0.09
https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/amc/earnings
From nasdaq, consensus for q2 is a loss of -.22
So, I think AMC will be on track to beat the consensus EPS estimate by a baseline target of about 32 cents per share or more ahead of estimates.
My overly optimistic guess is closer to $1.3 billion, because i think between the lightyear, top gun and jurassic park movie and summer time boost from kids out of school, i think amc come closer to the seemingly overoptimistic figure of $0.34 on 1.3 billion and assuming still 1.12bil expenses.
But if you look at 2017 18 and 19, amc was doing 1.3 to 1.5 billion per qtr and overall 5.08b, 5.46b and 5.47b in those 3 yrs for the year.
AA had said in a recent interview that he was looking for amc to get within 10% of prepandemic levels for attendance. The data here supports that is starting to happen.
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/date/?ref_=bo_nb_rs_tab
So, if it plays out that amc gets to 90% of prepandemic attendance levels then 785m+1.25b+1.3b+1.2b and you have an amc returning to profitability for fy2022.
The calendar of upcoming releases supports this and the current box office receipts support this too.
Upcoming release calendar
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/calendar/?ref_=bo_nb_hm_tab
Hint: look for the ones that show "wide" for the release. I havent mentioned titles like downton abbey and tom hanks as elvis that also release this quarter, but there are some titles like these to appeal to a wide range of moviegoers and not just the batman, dr strange dc and marvel action flicks.
I guess what i am saying in so many words is another earnings beat and a return to profitability this quarter is my bold projection for AMC.
So, what happens then with nemegosenda if the potts loses there?
Do you get to restake it for yourself and the oakville crew?
They mentioned niotech at the 48min mark.
Said there was court case in nevada and one still in ontario regarding the control dispute there.
Anyone know where that sits?
My understanding is dan made a deal with potts who then made a deal with spooz
But then there was also the issue with the esteemed keevil mining group trying to get srsr back under their control from dan.
Or something. I stopped caring a while back but now am curious again after seeing this video you shared from spooz.
Thanks
There is a recent interview with the spooz
48:40 mark dude is asking them about niotech
Mentions a court case in nevada and one in ontario.
Anyone have current eps estimates for q2 for amc?
My calculation based on q1 and their call and their avg per person and 26% share...
1.3billion revenue
-1 bil expenses?
----
Just my prediction but wanted to lay it out there.
Based on boxofficemojo data for the first 40 days this qtr and the 50 to go with the releases on the calendar upcoming. And assuming amc takes the same share of that rev they did in q1.
It is because of the relative strength of the USD right now. Dxy at 104
Hope your blastr is ready for next months lightyear and jp after top gun drops later this month.
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/date/2022-05-10/?ref_=bo_di_table_1
Attendance last 2 days has been up quite a bit week over week with dr strange picking up another $25 mil the for mon and tues this week.
Wait til that happens all summer long and the revenue from that alone.
That should be about when the popcorn hits the store shelves.
The bfs from 2019 showed an npv of 2.1 billion.
Average for industry peers at the time that estimate was made was 1.13*npv for similar miners.
2.37bil/195mil shares = $12/share
Basic back of the napkin calculation there but not out of line with the $13/share target you mention.
Especially if the company begins commercial scale production here in the next year as has been stated.
That bfs used $1300/oz gold i think.
If you apply current gold prices, then the npv is probably closer to $5bil.
If you consider they estimate 40-50% of revenue will come from silver...
And they found higher grades of silver since that bfs...
And the other un and underexplored areas.
Well, i dont care that you dont see it, but imo you are wrong.
I am not a fan of that $13 target, because people throw out that number without showing their work on how the number was derived.
Right now hymc is being valued at 172 mil cash and about $50 million valuation for everything else (i.e. 15mil m&i gold and 500mil m&i silver and all of the facilities merrill crowe, leach pads, etc)
Fair value today should be higher than $1.13, and while that 1 year target might be 2 years old and not well sourced, a one year target of $13 or more isn't out of line for a commercial scale producer.
34 yr mine life producing 350k oz gold and 10mil oz silver per year discounted at 5% gives what npv?
$1.13*195mil=220
220-172=48
So basically a producing mine is being valued at $1per ounce of gold or about .05/oz of silver their oz in situ.
Put another way, an already constructed mine with a 34 year mine life with a *2019 bfs that showed an npv of *2billion...
Is being valued at a 1/40 the npv of their bfs and closer to 1/100 if using current prices.
When the typical miner is valued at roughly 1.13 times npv
Who cares?
785mil beat estimates.
They will be cash flow positive this year.
Wedbush can suck it
4 million
Amc got 26% of dr. Strange opening weekend ticket sales, per AA.
If you project out AMC's share for the first 6 weeks of this quarter over the full quarter
It puts them easily on pace for over $1billion for 2nd quarter rev, perhaps $1.1 billion.
Just my calculation based on the boxofficemojo daily and weekly ticket sales and the company metrics on rev per customer.
If so, it is looking good for a shot at a positive eps quarter this qtr, if not 2nd quarter then for sure by 3rd qtr.
Wrong, -.52
Rev 785mil beat 742mil est.
Dr Strange did $98million yesterday according to boxofffice mojo.
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/date/?ref_=bo_nb_hm_secondarytab
That is 50% more than Batman did on its opening day.
10562 screens for Amc. Dr. Strange playing feature and selling out all weekend.
Going to be like this all summer.
May 27 top gun
Jun 10 jurassic world
June 17 lightyear
July 1 minions
July 8 thor...
Already 12 million volume premarket...
Billions?
228k just popped up on the bid at 1.86. Wow
"Optimize the high-grade and district potential"
Market probably liked hearing that they are drilling more where they found that 14lb/ton silver intercept
Probably likes hearing that part about $172/mil cash on hand too.
This is where you btfd if you believe.
Dont let fomo get you wrapped up, especially in mining stocks.
Slow and boring is the pace with mines.
Long periods of silence punctuated by the occasional news here and there.
Ni 43-101 is the gold standard to follow for mining companies and dictates a good amount of the information flow that is allowed to be disseminated without proper evaluation by a qualified geologist.
The good stuff is already out there to read in their april shareholder presentation on their site, but most people dont have the creative capacity to understand how it all fits together here.
Fortunately, hymc has Olivier and Diane who are masters at their craft. They cracked the deposit and figured out how the whole system fits together. You will see them slowly but surely start to unlock that value. Definitely will be some catalysts in that process that will help people get a clue what they have as they achieve commercial scale.
Probably best to go to a movie on the silver screen at AMC and stop by the concession for that gold yellow popcorn.
Then wait for the show.
Just know there are often a bunch of previews to sit through before the show starts.
Buy and hodl for me. Got in at 1.3 after i heard aron and sprott were getting involved .
I will be here a while. My target has another zero on it, lol.
"Against all the odds and despite all the obstacles, we're going to make it! ??"
Hymc's process manager
Against all the odds and despite all the obstacles, we're going to make it! 💪
— olivier Pauni (@PauniOlivier) April 30, 2022
interesting filing by sprott heading into the weekend.
What companies do yall think will be in the Sprott ESG ETF?! #HYMC #AMChttps://t.co/i3i1L9jtuY
— Spence ☕️ (@tspencer322) April 29, 2022
Employee spotlight tweet on their process manager
Process Manager (and soccer fanatic) Olivier Luhanga from Lubumbashi DRC has been a part of our team for 2+ years. He's responsible for all process-related activities such as refining, metallurgical oversight/analysis, process lab, and heap leach operations. Thank you Olivier! pic.twitter.com/coszBvkPGc
— Hycroft Mining (@HycroftMining) April 28, 2022
So many tweets, twits and nitwit fudsters spreading doubts and disinfo about this one. Means hymc must be over the target here.
Ignoring the 172mil cash on hand, purposefully distorting the 12 mil employee compensation plan as dilution, etc.
Seems like nobody read the updated presentation on their site. Would be nice if they tweeted the link or something.
For starters,
1.There is a whole another hycroft mine to be had on the unexplored east side of the mountain with the same sort of rock they have been mining on the west side.
2. They found visible gold showings in the banded brimstone veins
3. There is the area near the old rosebud mine that is a placer style and on trend with rosebuds mine that their claims surround.
4. They found 14lb/ton bonanza grade silver intercepts at vortex. Could easily be the worlds largest silver resource with their current 450m+i and 150inf and a bit more drilling, but so much more undsicovered potential.
5. They figured out the overall feeder faults and the whole emplacement of the 70k acre area and how the whole system fits together.
I could go on for hours but wont.
Anyway, this should trade at a multiple of their p/nav (easily $5B+ at current ore prices based on their 2019 feasibility), and not barely above the $175mil cash on hand.
My feel is this is Dr. Garrett coming in and righting the ship at Hycroft.
She transformed Romarco, and if you research that one, you see Hycroft presents a very similar opportunity, only on a much larger scale. She seems like the purple squirrel CEO you want running this sort of thing. She appears to be well liked by employees and harbors a positive work culture with a proper emphasis on safety first.
Just my gatherings from my research so far.
Thanks
April 2022 Corporate D&O Update
http://hycroftmining.com/wp-content/uploads/03-2022-Corporate-Update4.22-c.pdf
Looks like this was put up on their site yesterday but hadn't seen anyone post about it.
Some interesting stuff in there I hadn't seen before.
You cant make this stuff up they think some kat is going to come in and pony up 500mil to 2 billion for a pink sheet company with 5billion outsanding shares, when niocorp has done all the work the proper way and still cant get their project off the ground.
Eventually, the claims will be sold again and probably end up back in currah/fuschino hands would be my bet.
Otcmarkets still shows the control dispute icon.
Appears mr potts of rd volusia florida sold the claims to spooz, also based in florida. So pretty certain this all leaves srsr as an empty shell.
I cant find any details on the terms of the agreement of the agreement between rd volusia and spooj.
I would imagine drew still has keystered the key to the core shack, so whoever these spoozers are will have to redo all the old drilling, and i give them about a 1 in 5 billion odds of success there.
Big thanks the Ontario Securities Commission for sitting idle with their thumbs up their ass during all of this and never going after the scammers. They are all but reassuring there will be a whole new crew of bagholders being lied to about fish in a barrel.
Looks like some company called spooz ( lol) has the property now. What a joke. They have 5bil shares outstanding and fully maxed out a/s and claiming now some investor going to raise them 500mil to 2bil for carbon credits.
Really appreciate the former mgmt here for their skills at shooting fish in a barrel
Looks like this HPGR tech could have helped solve the fine grained niobium within the nemegosenda ore. If this was only an actual legit company with proper mgmt that didnt piss away the assets.
"According to NioCorp Developments Ltd, the Elk Creek Project ore is being examined utilising High-Pressure Grinding Rolls (“HPGR”) technology (NB.TO). HPGR technology is an energy-efficient approach to reduce the size of ore in order to collect niobium, scandium, titanium, and other rare earth goods. The Project’s use of HPGR demonstrates the Company’s commitment to the environment and establishing a sustainable operation."
Nebraska project is lapping us to the finish line. Seems like it is easier to shoot fish in a barrel when it is 1000 feet 1bil capex below ground project instead of an open pit 200mil capexer. Only reason i can imagine is that it must be easier for the fish to escape or something when it is open pit vs when they are trapped below ground.
Also seems to help having competent leadership that drill in the right place, so that you can use the historical drilling in the resource estimates.
That is about the size of it.
"He offers his investors money and success without any possible chance of falling or failing, and creates the perfect world backed by nothing but his words and the promises he makes. Not everybody is willing to play his game though. Somebody on his team wants the whole cake," and so he keysters the key to the core shack.
http://www.thinkingdogpublishing.com/Preacher.html
In case anyone has questions for new mgmt...
For more information or contact investor relations:
Peter J. Nicosia
President
Bull In Advantage, LLC
585-703-6565
info@bluehorseshoestocks.com
bullinadvantage@aol.com
For a laugh tonight over beers? No idea
Not much to recap but here goes
Scott led it.
Called it to order.
Some dude made sure there was a quorum 25% of shareholders votes present.
Something like almost 400 million shares voted, or about 45% of the oustanding shares.
Vote was roughly 300 mil for and 100 mil withhold for each of the two nominees.
So both directors were approved.
Scott mentioned it was a single issue vote, so the company would not be in a position to discuss ongoing operations or whatever.
About 15 minutes in total.
Vote was like 3 to 1 in favor of confirming with ~45% of shares voted.
What properties will this fresh start have when the primary property at niostar was conveyed to rp volusia per the last pr.
Shiningtree was already sold off to green swan right?
So what is left for the fresh start?
Sorry cant support an initiative led by andrew lorne suvorov dingle currah
Yep, 100%.
Currah once threatened a group of shareholders on a conference call to bankrupt srsr.
Looks like this numbskull gets his wish
What a joke. Did you see the news? What will these proposed directors do with an empty shell?