AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc (AMC)

[webpence]

$9.1 million more for dr. Strange on Wednesday.

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/date/2022-05-11/?ref_=bo_di_table_1

$11.6 mil total for the day,
Makes about $900 million domestic so far for this quarter now 41 days in.

Excuse the crudity of the comparison here is rough but...

Q1 revs were $1,333,429,948 domestic.
Amc revs at 785.7mil

So the AMC revs for q1 tracked at being roughly 59% of the figure spent during the qtr for all theaters. Obviously understanding my calculation conflates concessions and etc for amc that i included in the numerator but i only included ticket sales in the denominator. Was just easy numbers to obtain for a comparisons sake here.

Nevertheless, assuming 59% holds for q2 and all other things be let alone assumed to be equal, then you can extrapolate out a rev estimate for amc for q2.

Which so far is $900 million domestic through 41 days so far this qtr.

I would assume ticket sales are higher for the 2nd half of q2, but assume it stays similar to the first 41 days that are already in the books

900mil×91days/41days= roughly $2 billion. Using that 59% figure i calculated for q1, then you arrive at 1.18bil for q2.

i also expect it to track a bit higher than that, because the 2nd half of the qtr benefits from summer seasonality boost in ticket sales that are usually a few million a day higher during the summer months compared to other months.

337.4+785.7=$1,123.1 billion of expenses in q1. Assuming that expenses are unchanged in q2.

1.18b-1.12b= 55 million.

So my bet is that AMC is profitable this quarter and minimum of about 10 cents positive eps

Higher if my suspicion holds that the 2nd half of q2 will be even stronger than the first half.

Quarterly Earnings Forecast

Fiscal Quarter EndConsensus EPS* ForecastHigh EPS* ForecastLow EPS* ForecastNumber Of EstimatesOver The Last 4 Weeks Number Of Revisions - UpOver The Last 4 Weeks Number Of Revisions - DownJun 2022-0.22-0.16-0.33303Sep 2022-0.21-0.1-0.37302Dec 2022-0.050.05-0.24301Mar 2023-0.21-0.14-0.25320Jun 2023-0.05-0.02-0.09
https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/amc/earnings

From nasdaq, consensus for q2 is a loss of -.22

So, I think AMC will be on track to beat the consensus EPS estimate by a baseline target of about 32 cents per share or more ahead of estimates.

My overly optimistic guess is closer to $1.3 billion, because i think between the lightyear, top gun and jurassic park movie and summer time boost from kids out of school, i think amc come closer to the seemingly overoptimistic figure of $0.34 on 1.3 billion and assuming still 1.12bil expenses.

But if you look at 2017 18 and 19, amc was doing 1.3 to 1.5 billion per qtr and overall 5.08b, 5.46b and 5.47b in those 3 yrs for the year.

AA had said in a recent interview that he was looking for amc to get within 10% of prepandemic levels for attendance. The data here supports that is starting to happen.

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/date/?ref_=bo_nb_rs_tab

So, if it plays out that amc gets to 90% of prepandemic attendance levels then 785m+1.25b+1.3b+1.2b and you have an amc returning to profitability for fy2022.

The calendar of upcoming releases supports this and the current box office receipts support this too.

Upcoming release calendar
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/calendar/?ref_=bo_nb_hm_tab

Hint: look for the ones that show "wide" for the release. I havent mentioned titles like downton abbey and tom hanks as elvis that also release this quarter, but there are some titles like these to appeal to a wide range of moviegoers and not just the batman, dr strange dc and marvel action flicks.

I guess what i am saying in so many words is another earnings beat and a return to profitability this quarter is my bold projection for AMC.