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Hi Adam,
Congrats on the sales... SDY is spinning off a dividend too... Best regards, Ken
Hi Tom, Update...
Quick update for YTD, 1/1/2021 until today... +7.72%...
65% Cash... 35%... Stock... 2021 has been really good so far... My results are a bit muted with the larger cash position, but the V-Wave is high... Jon calling for 93% cash on short term, just posted... Plus my favorite technical indicators over on Stock- Charts are really at the high end of the range... So with all that said hopefully I can squeeze out a little more profit before the other shoe drops... Best regards, Ken
Re: Action,
I like action, it's how we make money... Congrats on the Sell and Buy Tom... TRST just triggered another sell about 20 minutes ago... 65% Cash / 35% Stock... Best regards, Ken
Hi Toof,
Sold some TRST this morning... Cash = 60% here at the moment... Best regards...
Hi Tom, Have you noticed?
Have you noticed 10 year treasury rates have gone from 0.90% to 1.6% in a month? We've pulled back to 1.44% this morning, last look, but still.... Geeeesh! ... +0.7% in a month? Less we forget, fed printing $120 billion(80 Treasuries, 40 Mortgage Backed) out of thin air to hopld rates down... It's beginning to not work! Priced new homes lately? Priced used trucks lately? Priced used homes lately? We're up double digits on everything around here it seems... Friend moved up to Monticello, Indiana last summer... Bought a brand new home, his builder just jacked all prices up $15,000 few months back because of the rise in lumber prices, and other components... Looks like we get another "free" $2800 soon... They're not admitting it yet, but I'm beginning to smell stag-flation... Best regards, Ken
Hi Toof, KRE...
Yes, with the spreads getting wider between short and long term rates, that should help the banks... Mortgage rates first to go up, savings rates last, you know the game... Congrats on the sell... My sells yesterday helped push my cash up even higher as V-wave flashing we're on thin ice here... Best regards...
Hi Tom, Re: Happy Days,
Agreed on that.... 2021 has been good to us so far... I pushed another sale through right before the close to raise even more cash from other people's accounts :) Couple cents short on the price, but the V-wave has been warning us... Bit of a problem so far getting this freshly minted fiat cash through the Senate, we'll see... If the $1.9 trillion goes through, then we keep selling as we go up I'd suppose... Nice charts! Looks like your at cash levels not seen since about 2015ish... Best regards, Ken
Hi Tom,Re:Garage Sales,
Picked up "Financial Peace University", the complete set for a buck $1 at a garage sale... Guy had $60 on it, I picked it up and started to exam it... He said " make me an offer"... I said I don't need it but I'll give you a buck for it... He proceeds to go ballistic on me, crying about how much he paid for it new... Then, unexpected help, his wife sitting next to him goes off about how we need to get rid of all this crap! She said, I'll take that buck $1... So with that we had a deal... :) Had another sell this morning on TRST, and I'm close to another already... 2021 is shaping up well so far... Best regards, Ken
Re: "Aim for a Million Study Course"
Thanks for posting a link to the video. I have 4 complete sets of the "Aim for a Million Home Study Course". Plus I have 2 extra sets of the 6 audio tapes, all are two sided A and B... There's also a complete set of "The A.I.M. Complete Graduate Study Course: How to Operate Your Money Machine at Peak Performance" with a complete different two sided audio cassette. Plus there's an extra study guide for that too. I have a fairly extensive collection of stock market things displayed in a recreation room, these study courses rank among my favorites. ....
Sell today,
Just sold some of my bank stock, TRST - Trustco out of Glenview, New York... Always nice to ring the cash register... Profit from your ideas!
Re: Another...
My bank stock has already dropped -15.20% from $7.30 to $6.19 a share past week or two.... Dividend yield is 4.38%, so I loaded up some more this morning...
Reset of Cash & Position,
/// Individual Stocks: 85% (Unchanged from previous week)/// <--- That just seems a bit extreme to me... I've crunched numbers today to reset my PC to something more realistic, with a healthy cash balance... My cash holdings were too low in my estimation... I repurchased today and went with 73% Stock and 27% Cash... Since my down draft from Mon-Wed, it's actually a little more conservative than that I'd think... Much less aggressive stance than before... Cost me $0.015, penny and a half, to reboot... I guess you can say I took a time out... Profit from your ideas!
Hi Toof, Completely agree
I got completely out yesterday and I'm 100% cash... Should of done it back on Monday, but it is what it is... Looking for an entry point well below where I sold, or switching horses , or both... Glad to hear you've raised cash... Tom is killing it with Fizz... Best regards...
Hi Tom, Re: Parabolic,
"Parabolic" move to the upside! Ya, that works! Congrats that's awesome! I always sleep well with other people's money in my account... Profit from your ideas!
2020 Review too...
-17.43%.... Nice dividend came in today, plus my holdings are up on the day. Cut that to near -16% already... Going to have to keep 2 books this year... One a running total from last year included until I pull back to break even from last year, and one book on year to date... Pulling back to 0(zero) could/ would put me at/near all time high from before the pandemic... Profit From Your Ideas!
Hi Adam,
Thanks for the good advice... I've always felt it never hurts to take some profit off the board... Close to more sales today, we'll see what happens... I've made great progress in the past several weeks... Got some sweet dividends coming in the first week of January and that's going to help... Profit from your ideas! Best regards, Ken
Hi Toof, Raising Cash,
Agreed we are in high risk... 3rd day in a row my holdings are stalling out going up... So I've taken the opportunity to force some sales and raise cash up... Final straw? I ran everything through stock charts and just about every technical indicator was really high... Not to mention our own V-Wave and Oscillator here on the board tracked by Jon... Best regards..
Hi Toof,
Same here... Although still down in my last update, I gained a lot of ground back mostly in November...
Hi Adam,
I prefer to own the individual banks...
Hi Tom,
Nice rebound... Great to see the Sandbox leading the way... "Profit from your ideas!"
Toof, Re:Top,
Bought more of my bank stock today... I see KRE was down -3.7% today... Lots of individual banks down much more than that...Top? Looks like KRE is -25% plus off it's 52 week high, hardly a top... Best regards...
Toof,
Used 7% of that cash this morning... " Don't Profit From Your Ideas"
Update....
Here's an update... After my June 9th Update I made a prediction that I'd turn my 2020 losses around... Well in the immediate future after that update in June, I sunk from -19.92% to -37.57%... Once again I've never ever been this deep underwater in any calendar year... So I didn't give up, I re-evaluated my positions and strategy... In the past couple months I've clawed my way back to -22.98% for the year... I keep chipping away at it little by little... That's an incredibly deep hole to climb out of, but I'm almost halfway there... Currently 55% cash as I type this, so I should be set fairly well from here... We'll see what happens... "Don't Profit From Your Ideas"
New High,
Congrats on the new high Tom! That's awesome... I continue to make progress on digging out of the hole this year... Up today again so I let some go out the back door... My cash % is nearly double yours at the moment... Best regards, Ken
Re: All Time Territory,
If memory serves me correct I've never looked at it that way. My updates on this board have been for YTD only... I track myself Jan 1st to Dec 31st each year. I've had record highs for the year, and record lows like this year for the YTD... But that's just how I track it... This year's theme is "Don't Profit From Your Ideas!" :)
Re: Rally,
Yesterday was certainly a big step forward for me. Still negative for the year and close to my June 9th update negative numbers. It was nice to add some cash back in with yesterday's sales. Dividends coming up next month should help also... Still, it's the worst year to date for me...
Thanks Clive,
I'm on it! Best regards, Ken
Hi Toof, Above
Congrats on the profits so far this year! Keep it rolling! Best regards....
Update...
Simple Return -19.92... Annual -28.97... ROCAR -24.92...
17% Cash... Avg at Risk 79.95%.... Well I hit a low of -35% shortly after my last Update so I changed my portfolio. So far it's working well as I continue to climb back out of the hole... I've got this heading in the right direction now... Looking forward to going positive... 0.65 x 1.54 = 1.001.... I need a 54% increase to get back to even on this year... I will do it!
Hi Tom, Software
Congrats on the sale! What software are you using? Nice graph with plenty of options there to use, can I/ we get a copy? Is it available? For purchase? Monthly lease? New AIM software has been lacking for awhile... Let me know, Thanks Ken
Hi Toof,
I'll be back in, probably Monday morning. But I'm going to have a different list of stocks... I'm sure from time to time over the years you've had to dump some holdings in favor of others, and that's all I'm doing... I was 23% cash before I went to 100%. Best regards...
Update, Hi Tom...
Here's an update through yesterday... Simple Return -30.40%,
Annual Return -49.79%, ROCAR -37.99%, Average at Risk 80.03%... Tom, so far this is my worst year ever... I went back to 100% cash yesterday... After re-entering the market my holdings only held steady, or dropped... As each run on the averages went up, I just basically sat there... So clearly I've not owned the right stocks... I've done a lot of work this past week looking at what I used to own that's working(but I don't own it anymore) and what I owned that didn't do jack... I'm in deep at -30%, but I think I can claw my way back up, but it's going to take some time... Going to concentrate on a much smaller litter box, oh I mean sand box(grin), and work it from there... We've all had to pull the plug from time to time and reset again, and that's where I'm at... There's a short list of 5 stocks in front of me I like and I'll probably narrow that down by Monday... Congrats on your partial come back so far... Hopefully early next week is "tank city" so I can get in cheaper... Best regards, Ken
Hi Tom, Thanks...
Thanks for the vote of confidence... I've taken a look at your chart and kicked my stock holdings up to 77% now, 23 % cash... Near 52 week lows still on prices over here... I'm a few pennies away from going in even deeper on the buy side and that would be fine... Railroad stock is my largest holding at the moment... Best regards, Ken
Hi Adam,
Hard to say how this all plays out for sure... My stocks had a bounce off their lows, but are still much lower than my sell out several days ago so I jumped back in the market... I believe Dow30 hit 18,150ish, so I've kept enough cash to go back down and test my portfolio lows and beyond... I'm 55% stock, 45% cash as of this morning... V-wave, market down turn would have me be more aggressive, but since I side stepped a big chunk of the down turn I chose not too... Sounds like you've got a good plan... Best regards, Ken
Re-established,
Took back my stock positions yesterday... The market is free now to crash again... Grin... Virus news out of New York looks promising ... I'll reestablish in the Muni bond market when Congress bails their ??s out... Best regards...
Hi Jon,
So is this one going to be worse than 2001, 2008, 1987? Those would put the Dow-30 in the mid to upper 14,000's... We're not even close to that so I stepped completely off this elevator going down... Hopefully this all ends soon and I'll gladly resume, but I just couldn't see riding this all the way to the basement floor... The lack of liquidity in the muni bond market even in AA, and A rated paper was insane... Something is really off with the mechanics here... ie: there's just literally no bids at times... Congress getting ready to throw a couple $trillion at it... A trillion here, a trillion there, gee maybe it just might stick... Talking head on TV said 4 1/2 trillion needed immediately to make a dent... <<<--- I kind of agree, a $1200 check per adult, spaced 6 weeks apart isn't going to do much... Need to get helicopter Ben, with a much bigger helicopter this time... Best regards, Ken
Hi Jon,
Is that a all time low for the oscillator? Best regards, Ken
- 0.00647%, 100% Cash
I went all cash with the portfolio I report on this board as of 3/9/2020... Since that point, with all the dysfunction in the bond market, I have completely liquidated all long standing positions and currently sit 100% cash... The dysfunction in our bond markets is quite simply scary... Huge spreads over the past 2 weeks on bid/ask in the bond market too much for me... I see today the Fed has greased the mortgage backed securities for the 4th time in a week, and a fifth to come next Monday... Commercial, muni markets even worse, and high yield is still locked up for the most part... I had a marker put down to liquidate if it was reached, and it hit for sure.... Take my bond capital gains minus my stock losses and you can see from the slight 1/2 percent loss up top, it was time to pull the trigger... As I write this, my stock portfolio would be down almost another 29% from the level I sold at if I still owned it... Question? So when to buy back in???? Based on talking to long time family friends, etc, etc our country is really really hurting folks... Best friend with 4 private businesses is basically shut down, and has no way to pay decades old great employees... This isn't 2008/9, and it sure isn't 2001 either... The world we left 2 weeks ago will not look same going forward...
Best wishes and regards to all on this board ...
4%,
My bank stock now yields 4% at these prices... Bought more today as per the program...