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Also volume is of importance. Every share belongs to someone. When someone buys a share goes from a seller to a buyers. Duhhh.
When a stockprice rallies like mad people will start to chase. This means that not so smart traders are buying buying buying at any price. Basically the shares end up in the dumb/weak hands.
So we had this massive run the other day, this means that a sizable percentage of the outstanding shares are in the hands of weaker chasers. That volume needs to be shaken out. Those shares need to somehow end up in the hands of people that dont want to sell. So when the price dips you see the nervous/emotional traders selling off to others. Those others will consist of dumb traders that think they are gettng another chance or people that intend to hold longer (our friends).
In the end if enough volume gets sold off we shed enough of those weak traders, more shares end up in hands of people that dont want to sell.
Why would a share price move up? Because people buy the ask driving the price up... BUT there is another reason which imo is much more importnat. What do you think it means that noone wants to sell? Will the price drop? No since there wont be trades (or not in a meaningful volume). So the only way people can get a hold of shares is to bid more. So lack of sellers is a good indication that a stock will rise. It is the weak traders that are emotional and get scared into a sale. This is where volume comes in. If enough people get scared out of their holdings the total volume of shares prone to a selloff will be reduced. Meaning that the anxiety to sell gets lower and lower for a growing percentage of the float.
A stock will lose volume, a stock will slow its selloff up to the point where people dont want to sell for lower prices. This is where we will get more balanced total of green red candles -> that will affect a number of techincal indicators -> that will give a number of techincal triggers -> which will lead to a reversal.
I hope we just take it slow. That will keep the scared/impatient people out.
apparently that was linked to rather careless wording from someone in the company. They have retired some debt, court ruling has a nice effect as well. Then there are the layoffs and finally the lower fuel prices for a portion of the year.
But dont take this from me, do your own dd :)
Thats the spirit! ANd if you ever feel bad about buying all that worldly stuff.. think of it like this: You are stimulating the economy ! *cough* yeah im serious! *cough*
yer, head and shoulders at the neckline atm. Do you know when the financials are reporting earnings?
I'd much rather see slow and steady. Speedy moves will attract the same type of peeps that were shaken out today. We had our spike, we scalped it, made good money and free shares. Now I just want to sit back and have an easy ride on the shares I scalped and added.
Sitting on a grand total of 130k shares of which about 30% is free or if you look at it in another way which I bought at a 30% discount from entry. So gimme a brandy, a lazy chair and some books along with me pipe. Slow and boring now please :)
Take wave for instance. Great news and its creeping down as well. People are expecting the market to pull back due to the head and shoulders. But there will be alot of news coming out soon in general. If im not mistaken some financials will be posting earning, will be positive.
Also check the sell, good volume on the bottom. Kinda climactic selling after a steady selloff yesterday.
none the less one should not marry a stock. No matter how right you are on the fundamentals or the news, if the market sells it off or isnt buying it ...
but think about what happened yesterday. massive spike by chasers. Stock was run down. People anxious. Then another red day on the market and people get scared out.
How is the volume btw? Am at work atm and cant use my normal trading tools.
dont worry bout this. I couldnt tell you where we are headed on the upside. Short nor longterm. But this selloff is weak hands getting scared out in the initial trading hour. (first hour is feeding time for the smarter traders, either by loading up on frenzy sales or selling out on frenzy buys). Same as premarket trading. Alot idiots hand us money in PM and first hour on the market.
There will be resistance here and there, where the price will dip a bit on its upmoves, thats just peeps trying to minimize their loss, only to realise that the price will move higher after that.
If you want to sell out on a massive hold DO SO WHEN PEOPLE ARE BUYING. When people are pushing price up. This way your sell wont press down the market.
Much like buyers should not chase fast upmoves, sellers should not chase downmoves unless there is a vital reason. When uncertain use stop losses. But keep in mind that the market makers might want to load up cheap and scare the market in such a way stop losses will be triggered (check chart on DNDN a while back, that was a perfectly executed stop loss trigger).
Also is nice to use this to scalp "free" shares. But peeps often mess those free shares up by not paying attention. They dont sell when the market tells em even though it is free money (free shares). I forget that as well, so I mostly do that on dividend stock. Then its not as bad to miss a selloff here and there, the divvi will buffer that.
BUT ONLY do that on stock on which you want to be long, dont do it on trade/scalp plays.
Main reason why sellign spikes is important is to bring down you average price. If you buy at 10 and sell half at 14 then you will start making a loss when the price goes below 6! (ignoring comissions). So the buffer becomes bigger.
What I see happening now is just a panic selloff based on market and anxiety on yesterdays chasing. News is good, people are ignoring that. Their motive changes from why they bought to not wanting to missing lose a bit on an intended buy. So they buy the news "wow this is great for the future", but they sell off on short term signals.
Added 35k at 0.136 or so (posted earlier)
Yer. On a designated capital (money willing to put into stock) I use 60% or so to buy my core. Then I sell 40-70% on a spike (depending on size and security - the weaker the more I sell). On a drop I will add double of what I bought in my initial buy if the situation still warrants that.
If the spike doesnt come I use the remaining 30% to add up on the dip.
Dumb chasers bought in on a 80%+ gain and pray that it holds. Ofcource not. Now the better traders reap the benefits of someone elses stupidity. Not worried here.
Added here. Weak chasers scared out.
Found a link via google. Just copied the text part of your link and added "mesa go" to the search :)
Overal news link, big history:
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=78947&p=irol-news
You speak of a new 10 year contract with united. I cant find that.
There is an United contract but that was created in 2005
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=78947&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=710127&highlight=
Well an expansion anyhoo.
in 2007 there was a restructuring of the fleet that services the United which will operate 10 years. Is that the contract you are referring to seeing the 10 year thing?
So the "only" new contract I can find is this
03/25/09 go! Hawai'i's Low Fare Airline Concludes Code Share Agreement With Island Air
Which ofcourse is quite cool.
I'm still looking into the debt issues and the restructuring therin. THey seem to be retiring senior notes (or however you call the process).
Thanks for the reply. As i stated earlier, not my intent to bash or anything. I'm just after alot of info. Will look deeper into them contracts.
Doubts about longer term. Shortterm great!
This stock will be brilliant (what am i saying?! !!IS!!) a great trade. But longer term?
So im gonna scalp free shares, If all hell breaks out in the future I wont make a loss. It seems to me that they are too reliant on other bigger players. They just fill in the flights for the others that get the flights. So what happens when contracts expire, when other companies dont survive?
But as it is now the signals for a great trade are mostly green
-MASSIVE positive volume, nearly 1/3rd of the float went through in 2 days.
-ADX is turning direction and will speed up with the big move of 2 days back. So when the momo is up and ADX stays nice and strong then we will ride a bit of trend.
-RSI turns up after breaking a "downtrend" and oversold status.
- MACD signalline is about to cross above 0 and histogram went positive 2 days ago.
- Stoch broke its downtrend by breaching the lower and lower lows with higher values. Besides that the fast line crossed above the slow line in oversold territory.
But the bang for th ebuck might be the 200ma. That would be a great technical break. Bolinger is coiled like mad.
As stated earlier Im not good at the fundamentals, and I dont understand most of the company earnings patterns.
But a quick scan indicates to me that they cap is nearly 4 to 5 times below equity. Current assets are close to 2 times the current liabilities. Which ofcourse is good. Along with the massive revenue for a 22million cap company indicate to me that this might be a decent value play.
But all those lawsuits of which some were settled (hmmmm), the fleet of planes that are undesirable to other companies (info from google boards) and the overal dependency on other companies just scares me.
It sucks that I am incapable of deriving proper value related numbers just sucks. This implies that is a BIG likelyhood that I am wrong in my conclusions as posted above! Im in big and I am not bashing! Im just not getting a fuzzy feeling all over if you get what I mean. So I wanna know the risks.
What are your opinions on what I posted?
Thank you for those 2 great replies. All in all I dont see why they are down this deep. Other companies have corrected from the november lows to some extent. This has just flatlined. Sure there has been bad news, but not something that could warrant current levels. But that is just my inexperienced interpertation.
I am new and all.. but I dont like these kinds of posts. Why would it be that price? How did you get that number? Why not $100 or a million per share?
As I posted earlier I am looking for realistic numbers, perhaps your guess IS realistic.. but then I wonder why,
They have been working on reducing debt
They have been working on reducing expences
But to what extent? How effective with it be? Dont get me wrong, I am long on this one .. bigtime. But I prefer to focus on the crap and not the rewards. When the crap is diminishable, then the rewards will come.
As I stated earlier I am too inexperience to understand parts of those filing. But what I do understand is that I want to hear positive news since Im long. Thus I need to listen to the crap and dirt and not focus on the potential.
As far as I understand they had a previous lawsuit which they won, stock went up but didnt stay up. So as I see it now the current ruling is just the same. Why would the stock reverse this time?
Is is the debt restucturing? Well I would like to know the numbers first before I judge it. What if they restructured a mer 2% of their debt... still means they are toast.. But I cant even tell IF they are in trouble when they lose the delta appeal. Everyone and their grannies can understand that delta will complain an moan.
So I am trying to understand WHAT it is that makes Mesa a buy. Kinda crap to think about that AFTER I bought.. but oh well.
Are they making money, are they making more money than losing it? Nice all those number of increased set fill percentages.. ofcourse that will happen when you have fewer planes in the air. They sold some, but will that cover this percentage, or does it include owned non operational planes that do lead to expenses?
To reiterate.. I am long. I am not bashing this stock. I just want to understand the risk.
That contract, how valid is that? The court ruled that the delta claim was incorrect based on situations surrounding JFK.
If that safetynet was not in place, then the contract would break?
But i have no idea how big an impact the JFK airport has on Mesa
Its the jfk airport right? With the weather conditions and stuff
*** never mind as found in another post:
"Delta noted last week that Mesa's performance was lacking," AP writes. "Specifically," AP says Delta "criticized the number of ERJ-145 Delta Connection flights Mesa's subsidiary, Freedom Airlines, completed from September 2007 through February." Mesa, however, says that's not true, claiming that Delta asked Mesa to cut flights as part of its efforts to reduce domestic capacity. The Arizona Republic writes Mesa CEO Jonathan Ornstein "was stunned by Delta's decision and blamed the airline for the flight cancellations at JFK Airport in New York that he says put Freedom below the performance thresholds in its contract."
A number of things to take into consideration:
1) year end they reported about 2 million more in expenses related to creditcard charges. With a small decrease in passangers that will be less. Also the financial crisis might have an effect in the sense that people are more reluctant to use the credit card
2) checked airline fuel prices Those are 54% compared to a year ago, but up 15% compared to a month ago. This means that there is a massive positive effect on fuel expenses
3) I am not liking all those lawsuits. Having 3 running against you at the same time including ones where it's obvious that they abused info they werent allowed to use. Sure they say they havent, and courtwise they havent, because they settled. But If they flew under cost then we need that figure that out.
4) im working on the debt loads, but too inexperienced to properly work out numbers.
Hi first post here. I got in big at 0.11ish for a trade. But the more I read about mesa the more I get the feeling that the current price is way off of its true value.
What are your thoughts on the true value? Book value is alot higher. Debt is declining year over year. There could be a followup lawsuit for damages or something. Im not trying to pump here.. I just have this gut feeling that the current market cap doesnt reflect the fair value.
Is bankruptcy possible for Mesa? Would it be wise to hold a portion of shares for long term? Those are the kind of questions for which I am looking for answers.
What is your interpretation of the current far value?