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Monday, 07/06/2009 1:13:15 PM

Monday, July 06, 2009 1:13:15 PM

Post# of 16651
Also volume is of importance. Every share belongs to someone. When someone buys a share goes from a seller to a buyers. Duhhh.
When a stockprice rallies like mad people will start to chase. This means that not so smart traders are buying buying buying at any price. Basically the shares end up in the dumb/weak hands.

So we had this massive run the other day, this means that a sizable percentage of the outstanding shares are in the hands of weaker chasers. That volume needs to be shaken out. Those shares need to somehow end up in the hands of people that dont want to sell. So when the price dips you see the nervous/emotional traders selling off to others. Those others will consist of dumb traders that think they are gettng another chance or people that intend to hold longer (our friends).

In the end if enough volume gets sold off we shed enough of those weak traders, more shares end up in hands of people that dont want to sell.

Why would a share price move up? Because people buy the ask driving the price up... BUT there is another reason which imo is much more importnat. What do you think it means that noone wants to sell? Will the price drop? No since there wont be trades (or not in a meaningful volume). So the only way people can get a hold of shares is to bid more. So lack of sellers is a good indication that a stock will rise. It is the weak traders that are emotional and get scared into a sale. This is where volume comes in. If enough people get scared out of their holdings the total volume of shares prone to a selloff will be reduced. Meaning that the anxiety to sell gets lower and lower for a growing percentage of the float.

A stock will lose volume, a stock will slow its selloff up to the point where people dont want to sell for lower prices. This is where we will get more balanced total of green red candles -> that will affect a number of techincal indicators -> that will give a number of techincal triggers -> which will lead to a reversal.

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