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No problem. I just should have congratulated you on the call.
Wasn't trying to pick your brain.
Setting TA aside, the $ printer tachometers are past the red line.
Mr. jg,.....Kaboom?
Gold Miners Vaneck ETF (GDX)
44.48 unch (unch) 08/05/20 [NYSE Arca]
45.14 x 1 45.18 x 1
Pre-market 45.18 +0.70 (+1.57%) 09:10 ET
Quote Overview for Wed, Aug 5th, 2020
jglider, what charting service are you all using for Hurst?
TIA
Silent RE:Hurst
My opinion, last 2.5 wk before the 40 wk.
GL
Mrmoneykb
Interesting to see that there are other XOHO investors in this world.
Most of the old ragingbull crowd is at Ihub. Your all welcome to join our discussions.
http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=9698&pt=m
GL
mrmoneykb
Dowdeva, looks like the 5 week low is in(maybe). If thats the case, cycles are shorter and right translated. This OEX 34 ema cycle chart has worked well for me(1 piece of the puzzle). I know that others have labeled the lows in July/ Aug differently, I am not convinced that my phasing is incorrect.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$OEX&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p54618639242&a=169121919
Good luck to you. I would also love to hear Aire's input.
Mrmoneykb
Silentone. An old Airedale post regarding 03 and his exact monthly dates from 04 back through 97ish
http://ragingbull.quote.com/mboard/boards.cgi?board=CLB00506&read=65415
Mrmoneykb
Bliss. Very possible that the 12/14 low is in. But I'm still thinking that this is a 20 week.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$OEX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p08937968522&a=169121919
If you average what I have as the three prev. 5 wks, you get 26.3 days. From 6/22 we are in that window.
GL
Mrmoneykb
Priceteam. Remember this.......
Posted by: mrmoneykb Date: Monday, April 20, 2009 12:25:59 AM
In reply to: DoubleTake who wrote msg# 37870 Post # of 39851
Sorry. It took me a while to finish, had to fill my glass. Yes, I agree at this time, we will see close to 950-1000 S&P before the next 20 wk low.
Cheers
Mrmoneykb
OEX cycle phase chart
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$OEX&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p55788034759&a=160454604
20 week due next week(ideally). I don't agree July 12/13(12th was Sunday) was a 20 week low. How about 12-14 day low???? Will see how the action plays out from here.
Later.
Mrmoneykb
Slinky
Would you mind posting your FLD charts or links. I'm not coming up with the same numbers. What offsets are you using? Appreciate your posts.
TIA
Mr$kb
Double, I do not understand.
I have narrowed the chart's time frame to examine your comments.
"....structure of XOHO. 5 days ago--perfect. On March 9 and 10, great. I'm looking at the structure of the 10, 20, 50 ma's on those dates. Examine each line, the angles, and the relation of price to the lines. Also the 200-day ma was acting as a magnet for price because of time and distance..."
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XOHO&p=D&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p88754051752
Did you add the 10 day?? If you only used my chart, 9 and 34 ema is used. Did you use simple ma? ema? Based on just that info I do not see the predictability. Especially since they now include data points from 5 days ago.
Again, I'm not trying to ruffle feathers. I'm just taking you up on your offer to help us understand your methods.
TIA
Mrmoneykb
DT. You invited this board to put your knowledge to the test.
Please have a look at this chart of XOHO. You said your system primarily uses moving averages as the indicators. I'm just trying to get a general grasp on your system. I not looking to prove you right or wrong.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XOHO&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p47058469721&a=163637813
If you do not want to comment, no problem.
Just for discloser. I am long XO(added to my postion last week) and have been for long time. Painful admission. Lessons learned on everything you do not do when trading or investing. But I do like the current chart action.
TIA
Mrmoneykb
Honorable DT. I'm glad to hear that you got it!!!
"A sideways consolidation and a bounce back until price meets the midpoint average is an extreme high probability--even if it's just a matter of reaching 1000+."
Go to the front of the class. Baaawaaahahahhahhahaha!!!!
To answer your question, not a GD thing in regards to "right now". I remember Aire pointing it out to be used as a guide to confirm or indicate longer term cyclical trends. I personally see value in it as a piece of the puzzle. Keeps me on guard in regards to amplitude of the cycles.
I read a phrase by a trader awhile back where he or she said I'm only concerned about the 60% in the middle, not the 20% on each end of the trade. I don't believe that is the exact qoute, but close enough. Since I started following that logic(not 100%), my winning % has gone up dramatically. Hurst also has a little to do with it.
Regards
Mrmoneykb
Double. I was not arguing your calls or your methods. I was just curious how, if at all, your methods looked at longer terms.
I think we are in agreement on the general trend. Most of holdings are my 401k(mutuals). I do not trade this account daily because I never transfered out of my previous employers setup. Which, by the way, has served me well, as I was learning the pain of losing $$$ in my individual trading account.
I think you misunderstood me when I moved to a 95/5% cash/stock balance. I am not looking for a crash or major pullback ie 10%. But my eyes are wide open for anything. Therefore, I think you perceived that I was arguing your shorter term calls. I'm looking to reallocate around the 10 wk low due aprox. May 12th.
I started scaling in close of 2/27 effective 3/1. Marked by post 37203. I thought I had posted the other entries but I didn't. I was 95% long by 3/10. Average $16.41. I flipped to 95% cash assets on 4/17. Fagox closing price 20.57. Post 37869. So far I missed the top in this trade cycle by $.12
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=FAGOX
BTW, you can say alot without really answering a question. I think your in politics. The Honorable Senator DoubleTake. Its got a great taxing, $$ under the table, pork barrel ring to it.
Have a good one.
Mrmoneykb
DT. Please comment on how your model(s) might relate to this half span chart.
http://charts.barchart.com/chart.asp?sym=$SPX&data=G&date=121307&den=HIGH&divd=n&evnt=ADV&grid=Y&jav=ADV&size=D&sky=N&sly=N&vol=Y&late=Y&ch1=011&arga=&argb=&argc=&ov1=019&argd=1&arge=9&argf=&ch2=&argg=&argh=&argi=&ov2=&argj=1&argk=48&argl=&code=BSTKIC&org=stk
Would appreciate some specificity vs general comments. I'm not looking for a wit battle. I'm unarmed with one empty hand and a beer in the other.
TIA
Mrmoneykb
Aj
"Patterns I'm seeing in the daily SPX, COMP, and NDX charts suggest 2-more weeks".
Are you refering to calendar days or trading sessions? I have a Hurst 10 wk cycle low ideally arriving 5/12. +/-, to early to make an exact call.
TIA
Mrmoneykb
Is that "supersecret indicator" something you put into your tea to flavor it?
If so, I'm cancelling my stock charts subscription and ordering myself some of that stuff.
BTW, thanks for your insight.
Mrmoneykb
Sorry. It took me a while to finish, had to fill my glass. Yes, I agree at this time, we will see close to 950-1000 S&P before the next 20 wk low.
Cheers
Mrmoneykb
Double, Agree with your comments. At this time I am short term bearish. Half spans on the OEX have been bullish and the cycles from the 80 week have been right translated. I just think the market needs to move away from overbought.
I'm not comfortable with the 48 off set half span on OEX. Any input???
http://charts.barchart.com/chart.asp?sym=$OEX&data=A&date=121307&den=LOW&divd=n&evnt=ADV&grid=Y&jav=ADV&size=B&sky=N&sly=N&vol=Y&late=Y&ch1=011&arga=&argb=&argc=&ov1=019&argd=1&arge=24&argf=&ch2=011&argg=&argh=&argi=&ov2=019&argj=1&argk=48&argl=&code=BSTKIC&org=stk
TIA
Mrmoneykb
Double. Looking toppy. I reallocated to 95/5 cash equivalents/stock from 10/90 on friday just before the close. Hurst no help right here(bearishness)as far as my rookie interpretation.
GL
Mrmoneykb
Bliss.
This market is like ice fishing on a warm spring day. I think I can hear the ice cracking, but I will not leave because the fish keep biting.
Of course you don't have to worry about anything like that living down there.
Regards
Mrmoneykb
Bliss. It looks as if the qqqq have a date with 200 day at aprox $34.67. Unless GOOG poopoos.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=QQQQ&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p25049780006&a=165557340
GL
Mrmoneykb
Chris3403. This could be the 6-7 day low using 4/7 as the 5 wk. I think the 80 wk was 3/3 with a stradle into 3/9. I've posted this before and asked for comments, but no response. Take a look and tell me what you think. TIA. Your input is appreciated.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p98434944288&listNum=5&a=160374805
As you always say,
GL/GT
Mrmoneykb
Comments please, 3/3 80wk low????
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p98434944288&listNum=5&a=160374805
TIA
Mrmoneykb
Does this mean anything???
http://charts.barchart.com/chart.asp?sym=$oex&data=A&date=121307&den=LOW&divd=n&evnt=ADV&grid=Y&jav=ADV&size=D&sky=N&sly=N&vol=Y&late=Y&ch1=011&arga=&argb=&argc=&ov1=019&argd=1&arge=24&argf=&ch2=011&argg=&argh=&argi=&ov2=019&argj=1&argk=48&argl=&code=BSTKIC&org=stk
850 S&P 400 OEX bumping its head hard
GL
Mrmoneykb
Tea. I have watched your charts and posts with great interest for sometime. And I would also like to thank you for sharing. It has taught me another perspective to look at the market.
I am very curious. What is your back ground? How did you get started in the market? What led you to use your current methods for trading? Any reading recommendations?
If you have already shared this before, sorry I missed it. If you don't care to disclose the info., I understand and respect your privacy.
Regards
Mrmoneykb
I would be interested in your opinions as to what you all are labeling as the last 80 week???? March 3,4,.....9???
TIA
Mrmoneykb
Aj. That 3800 gm motor is one of the best 6s that gm had. If serviced properly, the buick tranies with that motor would outlast the body and get 28-32 mpg. I spent a dozen years at a gmc/buick dealership.
mrmoneykb
Anything look familiar??
http://dshort.com/charts/SP-Composite-regression-charts.html?SP-Composite-real-regression-to-trend
Courtesy of Les on SI. Referenced by Ajtj99 on his board.
Have a great weekend.
Mrmoneykb
950 +/- 5wk 1/2 span
24 vs 25 offset for possible cycle variance
http://charts.barchart.com/chart.asp?sym=$SPX&data=A&date=121307&den=LOW&divd=n&evnt=ADV&grid=Y&jav=ADV&size=D&sky=N&sly=N&vol=Y&late=Y&ch1=011&arga=&argb=&argc=&ov1=019&argd=1&arge=24&argf=&ch2=011&argg=&argh=&argi=&ov2=019&argj=1&argk=25&argl=&code=BSTKIC&org=stk
Mrmoneykb
DoubleTake. Is your 1000+/- S&P based on a model or is it a gut call from your observations?? Just curious. TIA.
BTW, I used to enjoy your sparring with Aire. It was very educational.
Mrmoneykb
Shorter OEX Daily 1/2 span(3,6) were overshoot. 5 week crossover projects aprox. 409ish, which is aprox 860 SPX. 10 week has yet to cross.
Fellow Hursters, please comment.
TIA
http://charts.barchart.com/chart.asp?sym=$OEX&data=A&date=121307&den=LOW&divd=n&evnt=ADV&grid=Y&jav=ADV&size=D&sky=N&sly=N&vol=Y&late=Y&ch1=011&arga=&argb=&argc=&ov1=019&argd=1&arge=3&argf=&ch2=011&argg=&argh=&argi=&ov2=019&argj=1&argk=6&argl=&code=BSTKIC&org=stk
http://charts.barchart.com/chart.asp?sym=$OEX&data=A&date=121307&den=LOW&divd=n&evnt=ADV&grid=Y&jav=ADV&size=D&sky=N&sly=N&vol=Y&late=Y&ch1=011&arga=&argb=&argc=&ov1=019&argd=1&arge=12&argf=&ch2=011&argg=&argh=&argi=&ov2=019&argj=1&argk=24&argl=&code=BSTKIC&org=stk
GL
Mrmoneykb
OEX Back testing. Pointed out by teaparty on another thread.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$OEX&p=D&yr=6&mn=0&dy=0&id=p08259336885&a=162540264&listNum=1
FWIW
Mrmoneykb
Anyone here ever look at 1/2 spans using monthly charts?
Comments?
http://charts.barchart.com/chart.asp?sym=$OEX&data=G&date=121307&den=LOW&divd=n&evnt=ADV&grid=Y&jav=ADV&size=D&sky=N&sly=N&vol=Y&late=Y&ch1=011&arga=&argb=&argc=&ov1=019&argd=1&arge=24&argf=&ch2=011&argg=&argh=&argi=&ov2=019&argj=1&argk=48&argl=&code=BSTKIC&org=stk
Mrmoneykb
S&P...congress in vs out of session
http://www.congressionalfund.com/images/index/chart.gif
http://www.thecapitol.net/FAQ/cong_schedule.html
Looks like the first part of April before a rally??????
Just for fun. Info not verified. But hey!!!! Government cycles???
Happy trading. Cheers!!!!
Mr$kb
Interesting chart courtesy of smilinghiker.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=35941348
Mrmoneykb
20% long into 401k fidelity fund(fagox).
Yikes
Mrmoneykb
Deva.
I have today as 402 days from the last 80wk low(4.5 yr)The last 40wk I have ran 201 days.
In this market who knows? You may be correct and we just go down the elevator shaft from here.
GL to you
Mrmoneykb
Recipe for Disaster: The Formula That Killed Wall Street
Good read explaining the current financial mess. i.e. The herd.
http://www.wired.com/techbiz/it/magazine/17-03/wp_quant?currentPage=1
FWIW
Mrmoneykb
Aj or anyone. What is the ratio or the rule of thumb to calculate the relationship of oex to the 500? ie if the oex is at 300 what level should that translate to the 500?
TIA
Mrmoneykb