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Tight Supplies Could Push Heating Costs Higher
Natural-gas and heating-oil inventories are falling. A cold snap could give homeowners chills.
http://www.barrons.com/articles/tight-supplies-could-push-heating-costs-higher-1509159525
Interesting read
Posted yesterday on TOS {Live News on /NG}
Monthly candles perspective; ^ngZ17 ^ngF18 ^ngG18 ^ngH18 ^ngJ18 $natgas...
I've had problems posting Monthly candle charts so I'm not sure if these monthly charts will stay monthly.
Check out your own monthly bbands if this post doesn't work.
This a visual perspective of how important it is for the winter months and beyond, to hold the lower Bband,
else Natgas falls off a cliff?
Dec ^ngZ17
Jan ^ngF18
Feb ^ngG8
Mar ^ngH8
Apr ^ngJ18
$natgas
Cash$ -.11 @2.78 +.20= /ng 2.98
I don't know what you mean when you talk about buying both sides...
I'm not
I flipped south last week held it way under water sold with small gains
20:20 hindsight: I should have just held short
Going long, was thinking it would hold and I was lucky to get my short gains
and then I added north at the gap thinking thinking next day DEMAND Cash$ would keep it propped up.
It didn't.
So then I tried to salvage or scramble some of the losses back on an intraday bounce.
It did
but I didn't have a sell order in when the pc froze up on me
I'm not trading both sides at the same time. Are you talking about futures traders?
maybe wrong thing to do but I'm out...
screwed out of a perfectly good plan of recovering loss
threshold of risk vs maxpain reached
if /ng see's 2.90 next week I would be twice $ down
on the other hand I would probably be in the money on any kind of...
gap up sunday/monday~ for no reason
Looking down? Jan\ 3.055 looks entirely possible next week
sigh
I know it doesn't mean diddly on expiration but
5min looked a lot like serious volume stepping off the short side at the close.
Both Dec & Jan
5min obv ramp
>>>u thinking about buying to hold over week end<<<
I'm not sure what I'm doing now
my plans were dashed in digital hell
Now what?!
Will Jan hold this weekend or does it all gap down Monday?
I wished it looked more like buying today than short covering
I'm not comfortable with this at all
..........................................would appreciate anything you have to say
To answer your question:
What I did....
Held overnight thinking Cash$ would be up today for immediate demand.
...got some, but overall a sleepless night.
Started studying Jan
Watch both volumes for Dec Jan
Put more than a 1/2 position in U @8.93
drained all but $36 ^ cash left total in my account.
9.52 avg thinking I could cut my losses in 1/2 if I sold @9.20
My pc did a (JAVA Jam) meltdown. Total resources used up and had to reboot.
Missed my exit. I didn't have a sell order in thinking I might be able to tap on the bid to exit @9.23
not sure what to do now
Trying to foresee where Jan might be~by timing these...
Week 1 Storage http://www.celsiusenergy.net/p/week-1-storage.html
+63 BCF (5th Most Bearish Injection Out Of 22 Years)
.
.
.
Where is /ngF8 (Jan) right about here?
.
Week 2 Storage http://www.celsiusenergy.net/p/week-2-storage.html
+12 BCF (4th Most Bullish Injection Out Of 22 Years)
snipit For the week ending November 3, I am projecting a +12 BCF storage injection, which would be 33 BCF larger than the 5-year average. It would be the single most bullish injection in the last 5 years and...
Jan's next line in the sand is 3.064/.08? ...
keeping an eye on the winter month
3.055?
wandering around celsius...
http://www.celsiusenergy.net/
As of the newly-released 7 AM EDT update, the projected 4-week natural gas storage injection from Oct 20 to Nov 17 has increased by 3 BCF from 12 hours ago to +43 BCF. Nonetheless, the projected build is still bullish versus the 5-year average. Click HERE for more details.
http://www.celsiusenergy.net/p/near-term-natural-gas-inventories.html
This page summarizes weekly projected natural gas storage injections and withdrawals for the next 4 weeks, which covers the period for which day-to-day computer model data is available. For a detailed week-by-week breakdown, including daily injections and withdrawals, click the tabs above or down below to go to dedicated pages for individual weeks.
Week 1 Storage http://www.celsiusenergy.net/p/week-1-storage.html
+63 BCF (5th Most Bearish Injection Out Of 22 Years)
Week 2 Storage http://www.celsiusenergy.net/p/week-2-storage.html
+12 BCF (4th Most Bullish Injection Out Of 22 Years)
snipit For the week ending November 3, I am projecting a +12 BCF storage injection, which would be 33 BCF larger than the 5-year average. It would be the single most bullish injection in the last 5 years and...
Week 3 Storage http://www.celsiusenergy.net/p/week-3-storage.html
+1 BCF (11th Most Bullish Injection Out Of 22 Years)
Week 4 Storage http://www.celsiusenergy.net/p/week-4-storage.html
-32 but storage data won't load for week 4
end of run: gfs long range could prompt speculators...
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017102600&fh=30
comes creeping back in 10th/11th
celsius future #'s came up out of -0 land...
* Looks like expected demand/draw is reducing as the weather becomes clearer nest week and beyond
+66 +61 +15 +4 http://www.celsiusenergy.net/#box1
obviously this will continue to change /up\down
* Euro model https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017102600&fh=30&xpos=0&ypos=0
investing.com guessed +65 https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/natural-gas-storage-386
if it gets treated like crap it's probably because the number is higher than last week.
celsius says it will be lower next week... sofar
actual was +64 http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html
I'm not chasing it. Not adding here.
9.47 stop hunting bid order still pending
gonna hold and watch
cancel replaced 9.70 with 9.47. It's getting to close to report time
z3.034?! Sitting on a 9.70 add bid all morning...edit
have a good day
be safe
edit yeah 2.90 would suck
and you're not using a stop?
don't see how you can walk/drive away
That is an ugly breakout chart...
Gonna need a bullish response to the inventory report if it wants to continue one or two more day's.
Cash$ up for 2 day's wouldn't hurt.
And then... contango is an even bigger risk.
Filling the gap means new ugaz lows.
Wish I knew where this was really going
wondering if Jan is going back down to 3.15 or lower before we trade in it.
I think the ugaz/dgaz roll from Dec to Jan will be complete 11/13?
Wondering what the price of Jan will be IF Dec's contango gets taken out next week
duplicate
Yeah, not very civilized over there. Whole lot of trade/opinion bashing.
I used to read the wall regularly. Too much crap to sift through.
I'm sorry but
"+1" or "-1"
are not a trade statements without an entry price
nor should they be posted as a reply to someone's question... chuckle
See some interesting charts though
what I've learned about natgas
there's an equally opposite chart for any chart out there
whether it be bull or bear
/ng is fickle and setups continuously change
Thanks for that awakening
another 1/4 position of U @10.16...
tapped this one in when the /ngX7 2.914 Gap drawing alert rang
1/2 position total. 10.21 avg
In 1/4 position of U @10.27 edit... yeah this is the melt down I was looking for
sheesh sold my D way too early
Closed D @26.04 Dec's Lower 4hr Bband +/-
I don't see any 1k volume mins...
Incredibly low volume day moving this thing all over...
I thought today would be a much bigger volume day
... jockeying for positions
looking like the big boy's positions are already set
It sure can be dumped fast
I should just close my short, take my gains
get out of the way here at the Z lower 4hr Bband
after it changes... and/if natgas revisits 3.012 all ugaz gains will be wiped out if bought at the very bottom.
Imagining Dec's daily candle on the previous post's... chart
edit yep I want to be out of the way today. So afraid of Cash$ catching a dime bounce 2 day's in a row
but really want to capture contango also
I want out so I can at least think about re-establishing it if I want.
Wishing for intraday gravity to take hold
run it down into the close if it has to... just do it
wish I knew what Cash$ was doing today
front month and cash$ crossed paths/met this am
was my signal to bail but I didn't
edit 2.914 target. 2.921 was an old gap and yesterday's cash$
2.914 is the most recent gap and has not been filled yet
was watching %loss values of Nov Dec
nov was leading the way down in premarket
dec was allowed to catch up falling after the open as nov stabilized
wanted to see where dec would be with an intraday /ng 2.921 broad daylight gap fill
I really didn't think the gap would hold
wanted to see dec in the 3.068\.078 area?
jerk the rug out
I can't imagine a 3.15+ candle on this chart...
based on ext-hrs trading volume x7 vs z7 sofar...
whatever daily candle is produced by the Dec contract will be hung on this chart today/wed
Z volume is leading X volume in ext-hrs trading sofar
Chart-monkey status is GO for hanging the Dec contract's daily candle on this chart
whatever the candle may look like
still curious if my free shares will make the big
I would settle for a /ng 2.914 gap fill...
... tomorrow please
Before Cash$ cranks up a dime...
... echo
I want out of this south trade
thought it would be down by now
I'm imagining my concern if Cash$ is up a nickle @2.99 vs up a penny @2.95
..and what I should do
@2.99/par a short squeeze cold easily push the front month up .20
never fails, HH making wacky moves near expiration...
moved it in before the weather arrived
like they all got together one morning and said jack it
all of them?!!! at once? ... was that bid week?
HH +.17 @2.94 and everyone else is jacked up with them
smh
this could be the greatest short shakeout
or
biggest run... in a long while
Chart-monkey go~nogo status: edit...
is nogo ~ barely
so anything is possible
front month Nov's X volume is still leading over Dec's Z volume
stockcharts.com's chart-monkey isn't allowed to hang today's Dec candle on the $natgas daily chart... today
... so far
edit Btw: Dec daily OpenInterest fell
for what it's worth
Back@tchya bud. Give me a yell if you see a change of any kind.
gLwYtrade
edit: would sure like to see the winter months back under yesterday's low... today
another round of spread shaving?
I didn't buy long with dec 3.14\.15 looming... @ .20 over cash
Hard to be mechanical
when the front month momentum reset buy is 2.94/.95
and
and when the 2nd month exuberance short is 3.14\.15
so close to expiration
pretty freaking narrow
wish I could decide what the hay I'm doing
watching the big boys shave the spread
speaking of manipulation
nothing against your trade but
yes, I would sure like to see contango ripped out of ugaz before it's stuck/starts trading in Jan
Thanks
Edit: let me guess Cash$ is up a penny...
watching Dec Volume @ November 2.96
also of note: Jan is % outperforming the front month to the downside and like Dec has made a new low from yesterday.
the front month has not
pulling the spread out
Wrestling match in my mind...
Dec Z contract @3.14 = .20 over Cash$ +.17 @2.94
that is a short "exuberance"
but it's not the front month yet
close enough?
an overall rising Cash$ environment can be a slow motion short killer
torn
previous figures have changed. z is % outperforming x on the way down.
I had a mechanical bid in for ugaz 10.50 based on premarket numbers
Canceled My 1/2 position U bid
Bottom line: the mechanical trade for this is tap the U ask when x tags 2.95 & 2.94 and grit your teeth
wherever z an u are at that time
Considering this and holding my short for Z to Cash$ reset
and/or conango momentum reset.
only bitch of that is~ it could be Z 3.22 before they meet with a rising cash price environment.
... and then what do I do :-x
also of note: 2.95 was tagged yesterday during regular hrs trading
Those that know what (Same Day Cash$) is doing already bought the momentum reset.
So I watch volume in that area today if it gets tested
If it doesn't test... I check Cash$ tonight and decide if I take a loss on my short or not
Winter Watch:
https:// www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017102400&fh=30
Keep the dates current in these urls
GFS https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017102400&fh=30
EURO https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017102400&fh=30&xpos=0&ypos=0
cool tools with regions ensembles etc
=======================================================================
old school Forecast tool now for verifying tropicaltidbits
Side by Side: [Choose Chart Type] [Choose Chart Type]
................[Nth Hemisphere H500] & [Stratoshperic Temperature 30hpa]
Click: [Animation]
Click: [View Previous Run] ...if data is updating:
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=
========================================================================
Temp map forecast: https://digital.weather.gov
You can change it to "minimum temp" and more
Snowcast: see bottom of page.
Pass your mouse across the days.
http://www.weatherstreet.com/Snowstorm.htm
180hr Forecast Global Jet Stream Wind and 250 mb Pressure. Animated loop
http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_alt.cgi?a=glob_250
Noaa: West Pacific Satellite & Typhoon watch probabilities
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/Basin_WestPac.html
Current snow cover links
http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif
http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_usa.gif
[chart][/chart]
and http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/comp/nhem/wv-animated.gif