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observation search...
Looking over the winter weekly contracts #msg-136299945 I created this post knowing April isn't a winter month.
I added it for the aesthetic flow to winter's end ... at this point I'm wondering if April's weekly will hold up.
Apr ^ngJ18
Tiny Jan F8 gap @2.905
Winter Monthly contracts #msg-135780821
Last but not least: is there any chance of closing this candle over 3.oo in the next few days for a doji over the lower bband?
GFS long range forecast
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017112500&fh=384
Not sure how to write this up...Cash$ -.155? @2.775?...
I haven't seen a 1/2 penny before.
https://www.investing.com/commodities/natural-gas-contracts?page=chart&symbol=NGY00
scary
EDIT Feb printing +/-last Cash$. edit Winter contracts all printed under last cash.
... would be cool if Cash$ is unchanged this evening
kinda doubting it though
I guess my 2.93/.94 drawing alert should have been on feb not Jan
I would have made a better U entry
I tapped the ask while Jan was printing under 2.94... @2.936
Last Cash$ @2.93
and we have the weekend for the weather to try and develop a cold picture @ the end of the forecast runs.
Probably a sizable gap down Monday if all of the above "is not"
picked up some ugaz @7.89
2.956 gap for Jan/F8. Cash$ @2.93...
Wondering if we see a gap fill and a penny over cash momentum reset @2.94 for Jan today
Dec "expires Tues" currently printing well under last cash$ again
Thanks. Family in from all over the state... flat tire, snow over the pass made a late go of it for some but its all good. Itinerary reschedule...
Thanksgiving is today too
best to you/yours
and all
Recent Cascades foothill snow catching rain/heatwave expected valley flooding
through Thanksgiving weekend
Pacific Northwest
report +technical gap bounce despite the weather, or not?
I can't believe there will be a 4day Cash$ flat-line @3.05
https://www.investing.com/commodities/natural-gas-contracts?page=chart&symbol=NGY00&domain=futurespros&display_ice=1&enabled_ice_exchanges=&sym=NGY00&width=550&tblwidth=550&studies=Volume;&cancelstudy=&density=H&size=L&cancelstudy=0
Feb /ngG8 3.125 level
In UGAZ @9.66
hmm... edit...
historical storage data: 5 year moving avg's etc, eventually obsolete. Been saying it
Natural Gas Demand Summary: http://www.celsiusenergy.net/p/natural-gas-demand.html
For the week ending November 10, total natural gas demand rose 3.6 BCF/day week-over-week to 82.3 BCF/day and was 10.6 BCF/day higher than the same week last year. The components of truly temperature-independent demand--which include LNG exports and exports to Mexico-- rose by 0.4 BCF/day week-over-week to 7.5 BCF/day. With the weekly gain, temperature independent demand is now up a bullish 1.7 BCF/day compared to this time last year, driven by a 1.5 BCF/day rise in LNG exports. Natural gas powerburn--a partially temperature-independent variable in that BCF per degree day is driven by cost relative to competitor fuels such as coal--rose by 1.0 BCF/day from last week and is up a bullish 0.3 BCF/day year-over-year.
<========================================================================>
Natural Gas Supply Summary: http://www.celsiusenergy.net/p/blog-page_17.html
Total natural gas supply rose a bearish 0.2 BCF/day week-over-week to 81.6 BCF/day for the week ending November 10. The gain in supply was driven by a 0.2 BCF/day rise in domestic production. With the week-over-week gain, total natural gas supply is now up 5.8 BCF/day compared to last year, driven primarily by a 5.3 BCF/day rise in domestic production.upper portion of its 52-week range0.0 BCF/day below its 52-week high of 81.6 BCF/day. Click HERE for full details.
<========================================================================>
http://www.celsiusenergy.net/p/natural-gas-supply-demand.html
Natural Gas Temperature-Independent Supply/Demand Balance Summary
For the week ending November 10, temperature-independent natural gas supply/demand balance--which includes domestic production and exports & imports--was -3.9 BCF/day loose year-over-year. Over the past month, the market has loosened by -5.0 BCF/day from 1.0 BCF/day tight the week ending October 13, including a -0.7 BCF/day loosening in the past week alone. The week's looseness was driven primarily by LNG exports which are up 1.5 BCF/day compared to last year. Of note, this measure of supply/demand balance does not include Powerburn which has elements of both temperature-dependence and -independence. See the Natural Gas Demand page for more on Powerburn.
<========================================================================>
http://www.celsiusenergy.net/p/map2.html
Natural Gas Feedgas Deliveries To Sabine Pass Liquefaction Facility
Cheniere Energy's Sabine Pass Liquefied Natural Gas(LNG) liquefaction facility is located on the Gulf Coast on the Texas/Louisiana border and became the US' first LNG export facility in March 2016. The plant receives feedgas deliveries via Cheniere's wholly owned Creole Trail Pipeline, an 85-mile pipeline that itself receives gas from the Transco, Natural Gas Pipeline of America (NGPL), Texas Eastern (TETCO), and Trunkline pipelines. Liquefied natural gas represents a new temperature-independent source of natural gas demand that will become increasingly influential in natural gas supply/demand balance. The graphs below plot daily & weekly natural gas deliveries to Sabine Pass that are subsequently cooled, liquefied, and transported throughout the world.
interesting read... edit
Natural Gas Temperature-Independent Supply/Demand Balance Summary
For the week ending November 10, temperature-independent natural gas supply/demand balance--which includes domestic production and exports & imports--was -3.9 BCF/day loose year-over-year. Over the past month, the market has loosened by -5.0 BCF/day from 1.0 BCF/day tight the week ending October 13, including a -0.7 BCF/day loosening in the past week alone. The week's looseness was driven primarily by LNG exports which are up 1.5 BCF/day compared to last year. Of note, this measure of supply/demand balance does not include Powerburn which has elements of both temperature-dependence and -independence. See the Natural Gas Demand page for more on Powerburn.
*Excludes Powerburn, which has Temperature-Dependent and Independent characteristics. See more on Powerburn on the demand page.
Natural gas supply & demand data is released by the EIA on its Weekly Update Page at around 2 pm EDT each Thursday following the release of the Weekly Storage Report at 10:30 AM EDT. Data represents average daily value over the course of the storage week.
While all elements of supply and demand are plotted here, those that are independent of temperature should be studied most closely. Under the assumption that, eventually, temperature will mean-revert and is only responsible for short-term deviations from baseline demand, it is the temperature-independent variables that truly drive supply/demand balance over months to years. These include domestic production, LNG imports and exports, Canadian imports, and Mexican exports and are reflected in the supply/demand balance figures shown to the right.
http://www.celsiusenergy.net/p/natural-gas-supply-demand.html *see chart on the right
*see demand http://www.celsiusenergy.net/p/natural-gas-demand.html
*see supply http://www.celsiusenergy.net/p/blog-page_17.html
Dated the 27th 1-day before expiration
Related to: search this board function key word "hanging" #msg-136237459
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017111812&fh=30
This pattern took place while dgaz started rolling into the Jan contract.
I don't know how valid it is because /ngF8 does not have the same candle pattern
so the /ngF8 gap on this chart is a rough guess but it is somewhere between the buy and stop
https://www.candlesticker.com/Pattern.aspx?lang=en&Pattern=2107
...hmm Cash$ unch
Thanks Back@chya Bud
I'm guessing Cash$ is 3.07 0r 3.10 shorts are
being squeezed
When do they pile back in?
Today?
Monday? after cash makes another "Charge/m4demand" rise for one more day?
euro model for Monday 11/20 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017111700&fh=30&xpos=0&ypos=0
Monday's picture 11/20
looking at the short obstacles...
* if Cash$ is up today and /ng can trade as high as 3.11 how high can /ng trade if cash$ is up monday from the lingering 19th cold?
* Wed 22nd Inventory report http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html
celsiousenergy hasn't updated their site. Still says the 23rd
* Wed 22nd 1/2 day? Need clarification
* Thurs 23rd Thanksgiving market is closed
* Somewhere in there ^ weather could turn colder on the tail end of the weather models runs
UGAZ is printing 10.04 again so I think we are about to see what Cash$ is doing today
... was guessing cash$ and wondering if the weekend would raise cash price for immediate demand "weather" when I took the trade.
So Cash$ @3.05... thinking we could see wild swings here approaching Thanksgiving and expiration.
I wanted to play the long side overnight thinking cash would rise and shorts would cover but I chickened out.
It's currently representing a /ng to cash momentum reset now @3.06 in ext-hrs.
I'd love to be short with you again but not from here.
I already sold my short position thinking the above would happen. I will reload short for expiration if it does.
Thanks Bud!
Closed U@10.04 probably more left in it...
but I'm playing it safe and taking gains
In U @9.80 w/stop
cmon boys, work the bullish report so I can get short again
Closed D@25.26. /ng@3.092. f8@3.186 g8@3.187. Reloading after report
want/m to run it back down the flagpole...
for an hr
bail
reload D @3.168 gap after the inventory report
I really thought /ng would be starting this day red
I believe weather is hanging on what happens after the 24th...
... like around the +/-27th?
Purple is very cold and spinning above east US
same system ushers in the 19th cold
from the 24th, it fades to blue around the 27th
It does act as if it's dropping south as it approaches the 27th.
But it is... that far out in time.
Does it blow out or continue to feed cold to the US
It's worth the watch https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/gfs
Of note: My purple arrow hovers over blocking that holds the system in place
Crazy wind past 3 days out west. Woke to the house shaking and a beeping noise. Power went out.
So I'm awake ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...
Went back to the old school forecast tool in the winter watch sticky note.
I don't see winter yet.
I'm trying to find a reason for /ng to bounce
Cash$ chart appears to be cooperating south
https://www.investing.com/commodities/natural-gas-contracts?page=chart&symbol=NGY00&domain=futurespros&display_ice=1&enabled_ice_exchanges=&sym=NGY00&width=550&tblwidth=550&studies=Volume;&cancelstudy=&density=H&cancelstudy=0
Cash$ -.04 @3.08. /ng was willing to trade under Cash$ all morning with a 3.064 low
and is currently printing under cash now @3.077
I would say that's a pretty pretty weak sign
Z7's fading ext-hrs 6 red 5min candles @3.08... please continue
Yes I'm way green and I want to keep it that way
yeah. Feb /ngG8 caught support @3.167 drawing...
5min OBV didn't back off into the close. Looked like a lot of short covering
kinda ^ spooked ^ about that........ I hope it wasn't buying ^.
I managed to hold short through this day and the 10 dollar U noise
I sure hope Cash$ is cooperating
I imagine /ng could bounce back to test the (MeetingLine) dgaz buy, ugaz sell,
before continuing down
...wondering if I should have rotated out @25.69
Can't decide if I want to play that because /ng inched itself right down to an even bigger cliff.
That would be an awesome ride south.
I could make a case for an overnight gap in either direction.
You? Thanks!
edit: Gobs of short contracts
How do you read today's action? ...
Are they really going to play around up here or higher for another week?
Unless something changes 5min OnBalanceVolume doesn't look promising for a selloff.
I don't want to see 3.25 while holding short any amount of shares.
Gobs of short shares stepped off of /ng this am...
or it was real dip buying?
3.22 wash, rinse, spin area or are they setting up to breakout of that?
...just wondering how you read this up here @the highs of the day... each high
Are you still playing this the same or...
Thanks!