3rd Leg Trading

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interesting read... edit

Natural Gas Temperature-Independent Supply/Demand Balance Summary

For the week ending November 10, temperature-independent natural gas supply/demand balance--which includes domestic production and exports & imports--was -3.9 BCF/day loose year-over-year. Over the past month, the market has loosened by -5.0 BCF/day from 1.0 BCF/day tight the week ending October 13, including a -0.7 BCF/day loosening in the past week alone. The week's looseness was driven primarily by LNG exports which are up 1.5 BCF/day compared to last year. Of note, this measure of supply/demand balance does not include Powerburn which has elements of both temperature-dependence and -independence. See the Natural Gas Demand page for more on Powerburn.

*Excludes Powerburn, which has Temperature-Dependent and Independent characteristics. See more on Powerburn on the demand page.

Natural gas supply & demand data is released by the EIA on its Weekly Update Page at around 2 pm EDT each Thursday following the release of the Weekly Storage Report at 10:30 AM EDT. Data represents average daily value over the course of the storage week.

While all elements of supply and demand are plotted here, those that are independent of temperature should be studied most closely. Under the assumption that, eventually, temperature will mean-revert and is only responsible for short-term deviations from baseline demand, it is the temperature-independent variables that truly drive supply/demand balance over months to years. These include domestic production, LNG imports and exports, Canadian imports, and Mexican exports and are reflected in the supply/demand balance figures shown to the right.
http://www.celsiusenergy.net/p/natural-gas-supply-demand.html *see chart on the right
*see demand http://www.celsiusenergy.net/p/natural-gas-demand.html
*see supply http://www.celsiusenergy.net/p/blog-page_17.html