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Brutal weekly candle... #msg-136299945
... please start a long tail under it.
j8 ticks new low. Will 7/31 low@2.781 offer support?
Nice~wish you the best. I bloodied myself yesterday... catching the 8.24 falling knife
8.51 avg 900 shares... was knocking on 1050 in the hole this am when you were adding
I was stubborn holding 1/2 from 8.78 #msg-136588373 and then wasn't patient enough
... thought cash price would be up today and didn't want to miss out pffft
I want to see Cash$ climb hard
Last Cash$ +.06 @2.90
Feb g8 possible double bottom play? @2.917
yeah trying to figure out what will drive the shorts out
That's a south weighted post... EDIT...
so you don't think a winter run is on the table anymore if U can't reach your last weeks buy
I still see 3.12... am I completely lost? Don't candy-coat it ~ say yes if I am
EDIT... btw You were probably going to add 300 and then changed your mind
... walked away and forgot you changed it. 300 was stuck in your order q
I've done that before
"one day" perspective...
one day ~ cash will be up a dime/.11
if it's today ~ ng bounced @ cash$ 2.95/.96
one day ~ it'll gap up and run for winter's sake... won't it?
nearing +/-@ lower weekly bband for April ~ "well out of the winter month contracts"
... wondering if Aprils weekly bbands are a feeler gauge up\down between.
Do I dare say: it doesn't get any lower than this weeks low for for the winter run?
I see the headlines read production/supply is the downturn's reason
that's twice I've noticed those quotes when /ng s down
yet when /ng is up the headlines read exports will keep up with production/supply.
EDIT hey bayou boy looks like the weather wants to try and freeze the louisiana swamp
How often does that happen?
https://www.google.com/search?q=frozen+louisiana+swamp&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiz46Lbl-7XAhVCzmMKHRvuCaMQ_AUICigB&biw=1093&bih=530
edit Added this...
extreme jet-stream
http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_alt.cgi?a=glob_250
This just blows me away. It can't be real...
Can it?
Negative fahrenheit numbers below the lakes?
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=T2m&runtime=2017120300&fh=384&xpos=0&ypos=142.5
18th
Interesting: Push play and click the plus + sign a few times to watch the loop at high speed
... see the flow of whats going on
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=nhem&pkg=T2m&runtime=2017120300&fh=384
back to the ext-forecast...
This cycle of cold isn't as far south as the 8th but dark blue is cold!
13th electric blue/dark blue cold East hangs on to the 15th/16th.
13th
15th
Watching the ext-forecast further for that wobbling counterclockwise purple spin over
the north east to see if another blast of cold drops in after the 18th.
GFS/Euro: Warm anomaly starts pushing out 5th-6th...
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2017120300&fh=384&xpos=0&ypos=115.5
GFS 6th
Euro version https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2017120300&fh=90&xpos=0&ypos=148.5
Euro 7th
Translation: Sweeping wall of water, frigid temps, snow~ follow.
keeps trying to cast mega-snow? 15th weather snapshots...
behind a fast moving front pink/purple or it's REALLY cold freezing rain... it's something extreme
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2017120200&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=67.5
same day 15th https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017120200&fh=30
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=T2m&runtime=2017120200&fh=126&xpos=0&ypos=39
Cash$ down -.10 and just like that... /ng is printing more than +.20 over Cash$
I had to dump 1/2... should probably be dumping all of it but this feels like cash trickery and I wish I could hold all of it
8.78 avg remaining shares
The next update December 7th https://www.climate.gov/enso
Putting the El Niño talk in it's place...
El Niño: all that blue would be yellow~ not even a hint of yellow starting
current: surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=-67.60,38.60,300
La Niña: The weather... is working on cooling off the east side's body of water, putting an end to La Niña
Chart breakout? Have you seen the temperatures being cast...
Would love to see the trading range break and start the winter run
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=T2m&runtime=2017113100&fh=126&xpos=0&ypos=39
... end of run 17th
edit 3 links to add to the sticky~note L8r
GFS Total Snowfall https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2017113000&fh=30&xpos=0&ypos=0
GFS MSLP & PRECIP Rain/Frozen https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2017113000&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=67.5
GFS 2 meter Air Temp https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=T2m&runtime=2017113000&fh=126&xpos=0&ypos=39
Euro has cold pretty far south on the 8th...Edit...
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017113012&fh=18&xpos=0&ypos=0
Edit... and cold is in the extended GFS so what am I missing?
GFS https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017113000&fh=30
end of run 16th...
I'm getting sketchy: Why are we printing under Sunday's opening high?
The reason for opening Sunday up like that was distant weather... it's still there!
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017113000&fh=30
celsiusenergy.net & investing.com guessed -37b investing.com painting it red...
http://www.celsiusenergy.net/#box1
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/natural-gas-storage-386
actual -33b http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html
looks like I'm all in now 8.94 avg
and printing under 3.05 zaps contango Dec /ngZ7 3.053 expiration close
Curious: Do we see 3.05 today to close~out contango?
1/2 position @9.11. Another 1/2 position order @8.78...EDIT...
EDIT... I've been working on my bulldozer. My woodshed is about a cord and a 1/2 short to make it through the winter.
I'm Trying to be natgas patient.
See how it goes. I sure missed out holding a great long position.
Regardless: sure is looking like winter's setting in for the east.
Cold still showing up @ the end of the long range gfs
And The Euro is trying to move the cold up a day to the 6th and that would set a solid week of cold for the east side.
So the weather has bullishly improved #msg-136462198
NGI threw me for a loop Monday quoting down when it was up and how did investing.com come up with a 1/2 penny friday #msg-136427391
When NGI didn't report
https://www.investing.com/commodities/natural-gas-contracts?page=chart&symbol=NGY00
man, I was hoping for 8.70/.80
edit Regardless: f8 @3.04 is +.22 over Cash$ going into expiration...
I'm good with letting my long go.
...risky here
I'm hoping for an entry at a lower momentum reset
a NEW F8 monthly candle with long tail piercing the lower monthly bband
... would be awesome #msg-136431112
Pull the contango out ~ and some ~ if it wishes
I played it safe
So cash is actually up today... https://www.investing.com/commodities/natural-gas-contracts?page=chart&symbol=NGY00
NGI didn't post friday's #... like it didn't even happen
and today said it was -.11 @2.82 from the previous 2.93
Cash$ -.11 I closed ugaz @8.61
so do I but does it retrace first
yeah, watched an improvement of defined cold from this weekend
Sat run ~ defined cold 10th #msg-136435753 first sign of it
Sun run ~ defined cold 9th #msg-136438156
Today's run ~ defined cold 8th #msg-136457900
See how much more that week will improve for the bulls east of the mississippi.
Can we get a 7th or 6th by the time it gets here... and then run that whole week cold?
It still begs the question ~ reset contango or not?
/ng could do it in a real quick day or two
I've seen you accurately time it before... Is it going to happen this time?
I'm still holding out for higher... sofar
edit #msg-136431112 F8 making a valiant effort to close the monthly candle as a doji over the lower bband
question becomes
will /ng wash out the contango after that
a new month candle could start over the lower bband and put a long tail through it burning off contango and then launch.
I'm looking @f8 3.05-.07 for an exit ~ wait 2 days to buy in again.
or does it continue up this time without burning contango
edit another observation: F8 .20 over Cash$ = 2.975 scary wonder what cash is doing today
developing, Sat 9th ...
is consistently trying to cast cold
I'd like to see the 6th-10th progressively improve
fwiw: It's more bullish than it was friday... but not much
Bulls really need to see dark blue in the states and purple raking the boarder... looks like we're a long way from that
Sat the 9th