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Closed long. Spot down .09 @2.75...I don't trust it.
need more shorts to start fearing the forecast
toying with the 2.815 mark...
this better not be resistance
it looks like it on a the daily
see previous post for a cluttered visual
right @my previous buy 10.84 and then uncled out 10.81
sure glad I had a chance to reposition 1/2 that trade
boots spurs kick
yep I know... lotsOfuel... Monthly Band center-line 2.807...edit...
this is all coming to a head on a new contract
if speculation doesn't kick in on this brief demand forecast
the shorts won't cover
Turn the black boxes on lets get this party started
sell when it's hot on the 10th
unless a hurricane has 10day spaghetti tracks all over the gulf
not looking likely at the moment http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
/ng close @ last known spot 2.84 would be great especially if spot$ fell .02 @2.82
I would say weather related speculation and feel more comfortable
I Believe but I'm trying to make it jibe with spot
I'm not leaving my dog spot...
1/2 order = hmm... where is spot today
last known location 2.84
would like to see spot unchanged in ext-hrs
if it falls... I'd like it to be no more than .02 @2.82
but then again it's been a stagger down... flat, down again...
so if it's unchanged today it could fall .02 tomorrow
I want to see /ng futures printing over spot again @close...
towards the forecast
otherwise I don't see how this is real buying yet
"speculation towards demand" weather
I didn't see 2k volume on the 1min only !k...
but would really like to see 4k volume /min for 2 min
I've seen it before I want to see it again
Cmon turn on the black box
That all all sounds like fun...
Making memories
Have a good day... Tell mom happy birthday
Cheeses Louise show me volume and a 5min candle pattern up
picked up a 1/2 order @10.43
how about opens flat, drifts down to yesterday's low and launches a daily candle
two daily candles that look similar in bodies yesterday's red today's green
with equal hanging wicks under
heat returns on the 10th but is quickly replaced with this by the 16th
From this dated 31st GFS run
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017073118&fh=366&xpos=0&ypos=112
for the life of me I can't find your 2.767 mark...
the closest thing I can find is a 2/20/17 weekly hammer head open @2.773
Loooooooooooong handle on that hammer :-/
please give me a hint... 2.767 date? or time frame?
Spot$ back in March @2.82 https://www.investing.com/commodities/natural-gas-contracts?page=chart&symbol=NGY00&domain=futurespros&display_ice=1&enabled_ice_exchanges=&sym=NGY00&width=550&tblwidth=550&studies=Volume%3B&cancelstudy=&density=H
hover your mouse over it
Don't wan't to be holding the bag it decides to do a one and a half gainer from that spot
Spot$ -.08 @2.84 closest magnet. See if Spot/s low tide holds.
I'm giving it another day to fall
that was a long 3 days... see prev post
broke my short stride & forced me to play it safe
so there is d30
looking long to 3.06 soon if everything holds up
https://www.investing.com/commodities/natural-gas-contracts?page=chart&symbol=NGY00
dad and his wife showed up to pick blueberries as /ng was rising so I tapped out @10.81 close enough
...will look at all this again tomorrow.
I don't like having my mark slammed like that
makes me think the lows are not in and at the very least, will revisit today's low
took a 30 loss on the trade but saw over 400+ loss earlier.
So I'm okay with putting everything on hold till tomorrow
I'm out @ .815 if I can get it... try again tomorrow
need an end of day shorts bail... and then the ext-hrs crew
maybe I can neutralize this trade for a day and take a look at it tomorrow
crashed my mark like it wasn't there...
I need /ng to respond... I can't hang with this
I didn't use a stop ... smh
give me a V recovery right now
this is what I get for participating in a
catch the falling knife contest
I said crazy for a second not stupid and linger
10.84 bid see if it'l get crazy for just a second...
can ya tell I don't really want them... shaking in my boots
my bid is probably -.02 ugaz under the 2.815 mark
cmon retreat & ring my 2.815 mark drawing alert...
tap in and immediately tap in a stop
no brain/r for entry and stop
I hope
oh...I see you now... the wash, rinse repeat area...
I'm still having a hard time taking a bite
wish I could watch over your shoulder one morning to see where your eyes are
have to give the youngling a ride to work...
left her bike in town... ugh
20min turnaround time b4 I get back
smh
Thats why I asked about a stop
I wouldn't be able to leave the trade without a stop
oh well... gotta go L8r
are you running a stop on your trade or babysitting it today
yeah~ ya can't be leaving your labor around
have a 1000 u in cue waiting to tap in...
reluctant
wanted to see big volume
Thats quite a bit of signage...
pretty penny in materials time and labor well spent
You'll need google maps to keep track of the locations
pin a sign
Trial and error... I've learned some of "what to look out for" and some of "what not to do"
I've been burned so many times...
I really don't know enough about the big money that drives /ng :-/
Learned to go back to candle formations from CC with /ng
rather than get caught in the hype.
I now combine previous levels with patterns religiously.
He's right... its all in the charts and my ability to think ahead of those who move it.
I try to be colorful with commentary for memory's sake...
as you've seen; changing it up from, bizarre to cowboy...
for the soul purpose of the i-Hub, search this board "key word" function
so I can research what I remember working for me.
You are welcome and thanks for the kind words...
If you see me making a blunder... PLEASE ~ YELL AT ME!
I'm a single parent trying to survive 3 stockbrokers who tried to kill me.
At the time of taking over my account...
I figured if anyone should be throwing my money away... it should be me.
NO ONE CARES MORE ABOUT MY MONEY THAN ME... Responsibility is mine!
I played options for; oil, QQQ, vix... when I first started.
OIL is still a mystery.
Options are a dangerous game... and /ng reminds me of it in decay.
It'll hand your hat to you... suck you in... shake you out.
It's been a tough learning curve.
My mindset now is... refuse to lose by seeing my exit before I buy.
And what CC will drive home by continuing to remind me...
It's okay to take gains!
............................................................. gLtrading
4hr followup: ThreeOutsideDown is following the engulfing pattern...
went pretty freaking bearish
starting a new 4hr candle as I type
I think I'm done watching for the day...
I don't want a weekend trade
I was afraid of that
I bailed from my short with great gains
and I knew it would be hard to re-enter
momentum building scenario: ng/ ebbs&flows Spot's tide
Set-up:
Aug rolled into Sept
from what I understand heavily weighted short due to declining possibilities of a summer rally
brief cool period coming
demand expected to be lower than normal
The last few shorts of aug bailed the 24th & 26th starting this harami pattern "blue"
and the pattern was subsequently verified by /ng's reaction to Thursday 27th's bullish inventory report.
for the most part, a harami pattern is pretty stable
but this started during expiration so... who knows how stable it is.
add the tide of spot
The spot price has it's own tide
/ng month futures can rise way above and fall far below Spot$ in demand or not speculation.
yes next week is going to be under avg temps and last report spot$ was unchanged @2.92
Soon... normal to above avg temps will be in the 10day forecast
I've seen futures start trading weather events 2 weeks out
extreme /ng ebs and flows I've seen during spots tide
+20 over Spot$ -15 under are usual extremes... expect relief as they wander towards each other
I have seen 2 days in a row of .20 over spot while spot followed /ng up
because of all the above you may see some serious jockeying around next week with gobs of shorts ready to jump ship as August's forecast become more apparent.
The daily harami pattern could hang valid as long as 2 daily candles don't close under it "blue"
Add a hurricane or two in Aug with spaghetti tracks all over the gulf
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
The current pattern is hammer south... but must be verified
snapshot is it sitting on the daily Bband center-line.
Keep an eye on the future weather and the patterns
ext-hrs toggled OFF
Probably not possible today with a probable declining spot... I just don't understand what's holding /ng up
where is the profit taking if spot is declining
it's friday
previous 4hr candle (engulfing) the candle before... added-visual...
I believe the rule is...
it takes two 4hr candles closing above the (engulfing) to negate the pattern
I should be jumping south here but would much rather have some sort of buffer...
say... a real quick short squeeze to +/-3.02...
... talking more retail longs into joining in the party
and to keep the south pattern valid...
this 4hr candle leaves a tall wick as the body settles back under the (engulfing) candle's close.
drawing alerts
@2.987 trying to clear yesterday's high
@3.018 warning mark is coming
@3.019 Mark
dgaz entry
U2
weather&:_yeah mine is running on it's last legs...EDIT...
my dell laptop screen died and I'm running an HDMI cord to my smart tv to see
#msg-133338490
heat returns to the east side on the 10th...
14 days
wondering when futures will trade it
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem-ens®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2017072800&fh=390&xpos=0&ypos=113.75
on this am's run GEPS is closer to normal leading to the heat but now projected to be the 11th
wondering if it warms more by Monday's GEPS forecast run
... would slam it right in the 10day forcast
futures could speculate Aug heat and run
But thats a tough one... spot should/? be slipping today and into a cool next week
re: the wildest... edit...
see previous post
first mentioned here #msg-133283204
also here #msg-133305215 here #msg-133304986
fwiw... confirmed today for the daily candle pattern
https://www.americanbulls.com/SignalPage.aspx?lang=en&Ticker=UGAZ
see if the pattern holds or if they put a red X in the history column in the next 2 days
Spot$ unchanged @2.92... hmm
the current 4hr candle @2.965... EDIT...
Acc/Dist vs OBV are in complete disagreement where this is headed
...not in a hurry to shoot myself in the foot
so I think I'll wait to see what spot did...
if spot is down a dime today the top could be in
on the other hand if spot didn't move...
I'd like to think /ng +/-3.02 is coming by morning
regardless... I don't want to leave a short overnight in the hands of relentlessly bullish foreigners
I want to give it a day... look at it overnight... we'll see
I really don't want to short tonight
14days out... puts it in the 10day forecast Mon/Tue
bulls need 2.96 to hold on this 5min run
I see two 5min doji/s up here...
obv isn't dumping
champing at the bit
and now a hammer threatens to take out the doji/s
c'mon get some 3.02 legs
discrepancies 26b vs 24b ...
26b http://www.celsiusenergy.net/#box1
24b https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/natural-gas-storage-386
shall see
http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html
I won't bite... glad I'm out of the way...
but wish I was still short... had a good avg @ dgaz 24.17
I see train wreck scenarios for both longs and shorts
will be interesting to watch though