Friday, July 28, 2017 12:18:51 PM
momentum building scenario: ng/ ebbs&flows Spot's tide
Set-up:
Aug rolled into Sept
from what I understand heavily weighted short due to declining possibilities of a summer rally
brief cool period coming
demand expected to be lower than normal
The last few shorts of aug bailed the 24th & 26th starting this harami pattern "blue"
and the pattern was subsequently verified by /ng's reaction to Thursday 27th's bullish inventory report.
for the most part, a harami pattern is pretty stable
but this started during expiration so... who knows how stable it is.
add the tide of spot
The spot price has it's own tide
/ng month futures can rise way above and fall far below Spot$ in demand or not speculation.
yes next week is going to be under avg temps and last report spot$ was unchanged @2.92
Soon... normal to above avg temps will be in the 10day forecast
I've seen futures start trading weather events 2 weeks out
extreme /ng ebs and flows I've seen during spots tide
+20 over Spot$ -15 under are usual extremes... expect relief as they wander towards each other
I have seen 2 days in a row of .20 over spot while spot followed /ng up
because of all the above you may see some serious jockeying around next week with gobs of shorts ready to jump ship as August's forecast become more apparent.
The daily harami pattern could hang valid as long as 2 daily candles don't close under it "blue"
Add a hurricane or two in Aug with spaghetti tracks all over the gulf
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
The current pattern is hammer south... but must be verified
snapshot is it sitting on the daily Bband center-line.
Keep an eye on the future weather and the patterns
ext-hrs toggled OFF
Set-up:
Aug rolled into Sept
from what I understand heavily weighted short due to declining possibilities of a summer rally
brief cool period coming
demand expected to be lower than normal
The last few shorts of aug bailed the 24th & 26th starting this harami pattern "blue"
and the pattern was subsequently verified by /ng's reaction to Thursday 27th's bullish inventory report.
for the most part, a harami pattern is pretty stable
but this started during expiration so... who knows how stable it is.
add the tide of spot
The spot price has it's own tide
/ng month futures can rise way above and fall far below Spot$ in demand or not speculation.
yes next week is going to be under avg temps and last report spot$ was unchanged @2.92
Soon... normal to above avg temps will be in the 10day forecast
I've seen futures start trading weather events 2 weeks out
extreme /ng ebs and flows I've seen during spots tide
+20 over Spot$ -15 under are usual extremes... expect relief as they wander towards each other
I have seen 2 days in a row of .20 over spot while spot followed /ng up
because of all the above you may see some serious jockeying around next week with gobs of shorts ready to jump ship as August's forecast become more apparent.
The daily harami pattern could hang valid as long as 2 daily candles don't close under it "blue"
Add a hurricane or two in Aug with spaghetti tracks all over the gulf
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
The current pattern is hammer south... but must be verified
snapshot is it sitting on the daily Bband center-line.
Keep an eye on the future weather and the patterns
ext-hrs toggled OFF
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