momentum building scenario: ng/ ebbs&flows Spot's tide Set-up: Aug rolled into Sept from what I understand heavily weighted short due to declining possibilities of a summer rally brief cool period coming demand expected to be lower than normal
The last few shorts of aug bailed the 24th & 26th starting this harami pattern "blue" and the pattern was subsequently verified by /ng's reaction to Thursday 27th's bullish inventory report. for the most part, a harami pattern is pretty stable but this started during expiration so... who knows how stable it is.
add the tide of spot The spot price has it's own tide /ng month futures can rise way above and fall far below Spot$ in demand or not speculation. yes next week is going to be under avg temps and last report spot$ was unchanged @2.92 Soon... normal to above avg temps will be in the 10day forecast I've seen futures start trading weather events 2 weeks out extreme /ng ebs and flows I've seen during spots tide +20 over Spot$ -15 under are usual extremes... expect relief as they wander towards each other I have seen 2 days in a row of .20 over spot while spot followed /ng up because of all the above you may see some serious jockeying around next week with gobs of shorts ready to jump ship as August's forecast become more apparent. The daily harami pattern could hang valid as long as 2 daily candles don't close under it "blue"
Add a hurricane or two in Aug with spaghetti tracks all over the gulf http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ The current pattern is hammer south... but must be verified snapshot is it sitting on the daily Bband center-line. Keep an eye on the future weather and the patterns ext-hrs toggled OFF
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