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I was expecting a dip, but this seems to be holding just fine.
Who wants an option at 6 cents per share?
That is why I believe/hope that Gerber denies that as well.
Depends on Gerber's ruling on the disclosure.
I believe it would be lack of confidence that the bond holders will get more out of the company than what is owed to them. As in, they're not going to be able to steal the company and get the equity value from holding stock in the new company.
Everyone knows that the value is going to be higher than $1.01 even after all the dilution.
Good god people take this crap off board!
Everyone has the right to do whatever they want with this stock as well as their own opinion. Enough animosity already! This board is for CEMJQ discussion, not insulting one another.
Came back early from a night out and just wanted to see what has been discussed... and this is how we find ourselves?
Its 4th of July weekend. Everyone enjoy your long weekend and have a great independence day!
Please never mention Delaware BK court... they are such crooks.
Come on 10 minute rally!
Yeah, i'm hoping for that :)
I don't think we're going to see the EC's POR itself, since they can't file it yet. I wouldn't be surprised if something were mentioned about it and a negotiation between the EC and debtors. Their plan was to get things together within supposedly 2 weeks of the debtors POR, so whatever they're hashing out, they'll be discussing. Hoping something will be released to the public... though who knows.
Well, we may hear something about the EC's POR construction and negotiation with debtors/creditors sometime next week. We're now at the 2 week mark since the debtors POR.
Definitely not a certainty, but something to consider.
The volume to get the price down here hasn't been very high. They're taking advantage of the uncertainty in which many don't want to buy in, and manipulating it down hard. Though who is on the other end of this at this point? Lot more people bought in at the drop to .8 than have sold the entire rest of the way down.
What are the chances tomorrow is going to end up being a nice friday like we use to have? :)
Less than 3000 shares traded after hours brought it down to $.60, but bid and ask are .68 and .70 respectively.
Not significant.
UBS only filed for retention June 16th?
Are you serious? From the June 17th transcript, and Mr. Dublin makes it sound like the EC has been doing this since January and still hasn't come up wit anything. UBS only just applied for retention and has provided a letter showing their confidence in their ability to raise the necessary capital.
They have only now proposed such a plan, and these guys are already trying to shoot it down? Are you ****ing serious? And the EC members are already ready to put up half of the 500 mil? Wow! This is great new!
Its not like they've really had all that much time to discuss this plan with UBS yet... so its not like they knew for sure that it not good enough. This is just the start, looking forward to the structure the EC comes up with UBS. My confidence is massively boosted with this knowledge. I know there are clearly risks, but I'm well aware of it already.
Lets see what happens next.
The POR may have sucked, but this court transcript makes me feel a lot more comfortable with my position, even considering the price action today.
All that article is stating is that the stock is trading much higher than it should be based on some very generous figures that would put it at $0.60. Mr.Farooqi is not trying to actually gauge a real value... just trying to make a point that even under the best scenario based on the POR, the stock is trading much higher. He's not suggesting that its overvalued, but that perhaps there is a reason for it. The intent there is very clear, and you don't need to know the person to garner that.
"Can we expect shareholders to oppose this plan vigorously? I would think so.
The Plan recovery for equity is no surprise though. Of course the Debtor and Senior guys weren't going to begin the process by offering old shareholders a nice size recovery, knowing that whatever was offered would be rejected for more."
He is specifically suggesting that they are playing hardball knowing that this will be rejected. His statement, not mine. Once again, not suggesting that its overvalued.
"Lets see how this plays out but if you believe this Plan will go through "as is", CEMJQ is over-valued...unless of course one views the world with rose-colored glasses."
Perhaps many do think this stock is overvalued (though not the stockholders as of Friday), but its very clear from reading Mr.Farooqi's statements that he is not suggesting that it IS overvalued... but that if you think the POR will go through without any alteration, then its clearly overvalued... which is very obvious. If you are in this group, its time to sell.
As for some hard numbers... no amount of DD is going to give you that. Even if the POR goes through just as it is, you still can only get a reasonable range; which is not necessarily meaningful.
Wall is giving you the numbers based on the POR, which taken at midpoint value, puts the stock at ~.26; this doesn't necessarily take into account any other factors that we cannot account for without more concrete details. On the other hand, if we go against it and it still goes through, we could lose it all if this is approved.
This isn't directly related, but it was Judge Gerber and the Chemtura case:
http://www.lemonjustice.com/press-20100422-law360.php
Its interesting how he ruled on this and admitting that he made a mistake earlier. Also, he seems unhappy when companies trying to shorten the time frames, and ruled against the Chemtura on this matter. He just shot down Rogerson's attempt to shorten the time the EC had to object to the POR.
I really don't know where this will go, but I think that will depend on the EC's POR.
Even VSTNQ's EC is going to appeal to the federal court as they should. Its not over for them, and I hope they win their case. Maybe that will cause a shift in how CH11 BKs are handled.
If a BK is being handled by a Delaware Judge, its time to get out :)
EC:
Skadden Arps attorney Jay Goffman, representing
the equity committee, said his constituents are
ready to roll out an alternative plan based on USD
1.85bn of new financing that preserves equity and
makes creditors whole. Goffman added that the
group’s advisor UBS is able to finance their plan by
raising USD 1.35bn of debt on top of a USD 500m-
USD 600m rights offering funded by share holders
and new investors.
Response:
The outline of the share holder plan caught some
flak from attorney Richard Wynne of Jones Day,
representing a Harbinger and York Capital led ad
hoc group of note holders claiming to hold 70% of
Chemtura’s debt. “The equity has had a long time
to come up with a proposal to pay creditors,”
Wynne said. “It hasn’t been a secret they’re trying
to raise money. They haven’t come up with it. They
haven’t come up with a capital structure that
makes sense.”
Agreed, I don't put much on faith but logical reasoning. I reason that the EC has a good case and has a decent chance of getting a plan together with UBS backing. I just don't see how a judge can justify going against something that is in line with the purpose of a bankruptcy, or for something that is essentially the opposite. I've seen "fair" judges make unbelievable decisions before and I just don't believe in our court system. I do believe in the strength of the EC though!
How is a company that barely needed to go into bankruptcy not find a way to refinance itself with a more stable credit market? They don't want to, that's why.
Whats even more annoying is that the EC really doesn't even need to get the entire 1.85 bn. I mean.. if the can just finance 50% of the debt, even that would make a huge difference.
I mean... have they taken a single step towards preserve equity? (rhetorical question)
This is a company that would never have needed to go into CH11 if it weren't for the bad economy, and everything is looking up going forward. This POR is completely unjustified, and the most lazy and blatant attempt to steal the company, and for Rogerson to come out with a clean slate.
Where can I check to see who the main institutional owners are? I'm seeing only around ~11% institutional ownership.
I'd really like to know what % of the stock is held by debt holders. Can anyone help with that?
I think I'm gonna need a few drinks after the last 17 or so hours.
Definitely possible. I just don't know enough about CH11 rules on bondholders action. Last we saw, they were far on the short side of cemjq.
Yes, it means that the market and shareholders do not believe, or just have some degree of confidence, that what they're telling us will *not* get approved in court.
I was expecting a lot more of a panic in the morning. I mean... this was definitely a high volume day, but everything was bought up after market open; shows significant confidence. I'd like to know who exactly is buying up all these shares, is it all retail?
I was up quite late yesterday trying to figure out what to do. Took more than 2 hours to really go through the details and come to any reasonable conclusion.
I don't want to give anyone false confidence or give anyone any advice as to what to do, but I'm very happy with what we've seen today. This doesn't mean everything is good, but it does definitely show support and suggests that it is not widely believed this POR will go through as is, at least for the moment anyway. Not bad given the death sentence we just got handed.
We already have action from the EC with the newest court doc:
http://www.kccllc.net/documents/0911233/0911233100618000000000008.pdf
Got PR from the EC via Debtwire about the an independent reorg plan from the EC being worked on with UBS backing to make creditors whole while preserving equity (with what seems like USD 500m-600m some dilution that we can probably live with esp since it may not even be too high of a dilution based on the offer value).
Debtors/creditors are seriously trying to get much more value than they are owed in the long term, but this is not what CH11 bankruptcy is for. If the EC can provide a viable alternative, this POR should not be difficult to contest. I have little faith in our BK court system, but I do see a strong EC case here.
Lets put today's price action in perspective. We were brought down to below .8 with about ~200k shares premarket...
Now that's a quick response time. Hopefully hear more about their alternative in the near future.
Are they going to have to request to rescind the motion to extend the exclusivity period before filing their own POR or can they just move forward with it either way?
If they can start putting together a good plan, which already seems to be in the works if not already far in the process, we should see some cooperation from debtors/creditors. It really does seem like they put a low value to start off value so it looks like they're being reasonable and giving ground when (if) they decide to cooperate with the EC.
We are trading above the market opening :). I am impressed that only 7 mil has been traded and the price drop was entirely pre-market. Shows more confidence than I expected from most shareholders. I'm glad to see that. Seems many are willing to take the risk with this EC in play, and many of us on this board seem to be.
Honestly, I'd vote to give him that bonus if the company comes out with shareholders mostly intact. I hope the EC throws that into their plan.... however, I just don't see how its not a bribe either way, but seems like its not an issue for some reason. I think it would be in our best interest to keep the company somewhat impartial to either debtors/creditors or the EC.
That's an understatement :)
Valuation is something I'm sure they took as a conservative estimate, and are still confident that they can take on this challenge. UBS (or any well known bank for that matter) wouldn't go here if they couldn't get it done.
If this was seriously a lost cause, we wouldn't have one of the biggest banks ready to step in like this. If this were only a possibility, they wouldn't have gone ahead with such a statement.
The debtors/creditors being made whole is the only concern here, and money is money regardless of where it comes from. I don't see how the judge would go against the shareholders when its clear that its not necessary.
Its also abundantly clear since they didn't go for such a plan themselves, the company is just trying to get a clean slate, and that is a blatant abuse of the BK process.
UBS wouldn't back something like this without knowing exactly what they're getting into.
Can the shareholders have a meeting with the EC to go over some details? I for one can't see any reason why a 2nd plan that can refinance the company would be rejected.
There are some details in the 1.85 bn number that I'm curious about and I'm not sure if you guys are allowed to talk about it.
I've seen this happen in other companies too and this is exactly what I was worried about. It irritates me to no end that these vulture bond holders keep doing this. In the last year alone several companies have been stolen from their rightful owners and no one has been able to do much about it in many situations.
I'm glad we have a good EC with representation and I hope the judge does see the unfairness in this POR. They haven't even attempted to refinance, and it blows my mind that such a profitable company can't get the credit they need? yeah right!
Wiping the slate clean will obviously benefit Rogerson since its essentially free money at that point. This is a farce of the bankruptcy system and I hope this kind of practice gets looked into by some government agency. How is this not a white collar crime? Complete abuse of the BK process.
Anyway, thanks again CMM, Wall, everyone else who's still supporting this. I look forward to the new POR.
Yup, now to look forward to July 13th.
EC has already stated that it will be submitting an alternate POR within 2 weeks.
This POR blows... however, I don't see how a company listed as having 3 bn in assets and 2.5 bn in sales in 2009 is going to be devalued so much that its only worth .32/share. The assets alone easily cover the 1.15 bn that they expect in new equity. Sell the whole damn company and everyone would come out golden, I don't see how this makes any sense. I'll have to wake up tomorrow and go over this POR in more detail.
This will not get approved.
"...share holders led by
Canyon Capital and Strategic Value Partners are
not on board. Counsel for the official equity
committee said the group is ready to file its own
POR in the next two weeks.
Skadden Arps attorney Jay Goffman, representing
the equity committee, said his constituents are
ready to roll out an alternative plan based on USD
1.85bn of new financing that preserves equity and
makes creditors whole. Goffman added that the
group’s advisor UBS is able to finance their plan by
raising USD 1.35bn of debt on top of a USD 500m-
USD 600m rights offering funded by share holders
and new investors."
Yes, but that's UBS AG (Switzerland), not LLC (US) :)
Pardon the brain fart, I just happen to work with some people from London and put down UBS AG as London.
Its the same company, and yes they were involved in a lot of tax evasion. Really huge deal when the news first came out; everyone was flipping out. Banks do this shit... Also UBS tanked pretty heavily the last 2+ years. I think they've done the worst when it comes to the big banks (if not close to), but that doesn't particularly reflect on any of this.
Can Chemtura get refinancing in order to pay off the debt entirely?
It seems like that should be possible given the state of the company. A Debt to equity conversion would only seem necessary in that situation to exit BK sooner rather than later, since debtors will want to get as much as they can.
It would be surprising if Chemtura couldn't get the credit necessary for this.
Why not have a new rights offer to existing shareholders in order to raise the capital to get rid of the remainder of the debt?
Any thoughts?
Whomever is buying up all these shares is going to make out like a bandit just a few months down the line. Wish I had the capital to keep adding.