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That seems to be the million dollar question.
I’m thinking that he won’t be ousted but I am usually wrong.
Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries: House Democratic leadership will vote yes on the pending Republican Motion to Vacate the Chair.
— MeidasTouch (@MeidasTouch) October 3, 2023
"House Democrats remain willing to find common ground on an enlightened path forward. Unfortunately, our extreme Republican colleagues have shown no… pic.twitter.com/EsqkPt2CgG
Actually they found her last night. That is what the article in my link said. I am SHOCKED that you don’t read my links! 🥲
He should just admit what he did and suffer the consequences. The Republicans will keep this story alive forever if he doesn’t. It was a stupid thing to do.
I like Cameron also. I wasn’t crazy about him in the beginning but he is playing a good game. Unfortunately, as soon as he loses the next HOH comp, he will be on the block, or back doored.
The only other person who seems to know how to play is America.
Cirie is way out of her league with this game.
I thought she did
I want to live in the world where Trump takes the money and FTX goes belly up Christmas 2024 https://t.co/bBqC73enJ6
— Tim Miller (@Timodc) October 2, 2023
She does seem to have dual personalities.
— Angry Staffer 🌻 (@Angry_Staffer) October 1, 2023
The 2 key facts about US Covid policy that everyone should know
This shouldn't feel like a contrarian position.
NATE SILVER
SEP 29, 2023
I’m not sure how much to write about COVID here at Silver Bulletin. On the one hand, the way the topic represents the intersection of the personal and the political seems almost designed to alienate people. On the other hand, I don’t really buy the idea that we should just move on from reflecting on the issue. Other than maybe the fall of the Soviet Union, COVID has been the most consequential event of my lifetime. And there are going to be future pandemics; we probably ought to at least try not to screw up in quite the same ways again. So while I won’t write about COVID frequently, it will make an occasional guest appearance.
The goal of this post is to convey two related facts that make for politically inconvenient bedfellows. They aren’t breaking news by any means. (I was originally waiting to time this post until the new COVID booster shots became available. Except it turns out, they already are available — I just hadn’t realized it.1) But I still think they’re worth repeating. The facts are these:
Until vaccines became available, there was little difference in COVID death rates between blue states and red states.
After vaccines became available, there were clear differences, with red states having higher death rates, almost certainly as a result of lower vaccine uptake among Republicans.
In other words, the vaccines made a real and obvious dent in COVID, whereas the effect of other NPIs — such as school and business closures, masks, and social distancing — is much less clear.
You can observe this by looking at state-level data.2 The table below compares the number of COVID deaths per capita up through Feb. 1, 2021 with the number of deaths since then; this date represents roughly when vaccines became readily available to the most vulnerable groups:3
Up through February 2021, there was little discernible pattern in whether red states or blue states4 were worse affected by COVID. Since then — post-vaccines — the top of the list is dominated by red states. It’s a big difference; since Feb. 2021, the average death rate in red states is 35 percent higher than in blue states. The state with the highest COVID death rate during that period is West Virginia, which gave Donald Trump his second-largest margin of victory. The jurisdiction with the lowest COVID death rate since Feb. 2021 is Washington, D.C., which gave Joe Biden his largest winning margin. There are some exceptions to the pattern — Utah did quite well, for instance — but not many.
Maybe you think this is the result of some sort of ecological fallacy, but a recent analysis of individual-level data suggests that it isn’t. A team from Yale published a study tracking excess deaths among registered voters in Florida and Ohio. The methodology of the study is simple and robust:
To assess the association between political party affiliation and excess mortality for individuals during the COVID-19 pandemic, we linked voter registration data in Florida and Ohio to mortality data at the individual level to calculate excess death rates for Republican and Democratic voters and compare excess death rates before and after vaccines became available to the full adult population.
The authors simply cross-checked voter registration records against death records to look up whether people registered as Republicans were dying more often than people registered as Democrats. There’s no fancy math here; they’re basically just counting. And what they found is that there were no real differences until vaccines became available. Once vaccines were available, Republicans began having considerably higher excess death rates:
Again, the timing lines up almost perfectly, with Republican excess deaths starting to surpass Democratic ones right when the most vulnerable groups began getting vaccinated. There’s no other reason I can think of why Republicans would suddenly start dying at higher rates.
To repeat myself, though, the absence of any major differences before the availability of vaccines is also newsworthy. Look, I’m sure that if you squinted, or adjusted for umpteen other factors, you could find some differences in COVID mortality rates as a result of closures, social distancing, masks and other NPIs. I am not claiming this data to be the last word or saying I’m against every single COVID intervention other than vaccines. But those other interventions came with costs — enormous costs and disutilities. The contrast in how clearly the effect of vaccines shows up in the data to how unclear the effect of the other measures are probably ought to inform our response next time.
I sometimes feel like I’m on an island to think highly of the COVID vaccines at all — while also thinking that the liberal establishment otherwise made a lot of mistakes when it came to COVID. But I think this data is fairly persuasive, and so I thought it was worth sharing.
https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-2-key-facts-about-us-covid-policy
My thought was DeSantis is desperate but maybe it’s Bill who is desperate.
Bill Maher was back tonight and his first guest was Ron DeSantis.
We also got the heavy rain but I was out and about today and I avoided the areas that are known to flood.
Thanks for the concern!
I am fine. I live outside of NYC.
Congress getting paid after they shut down the government through fucking incompetent malevolence is not in the Constitution you idiot @RepRalphNorman. https://t.co/eKGVpgsxsZ
— Fred Wellman (@FPWellman) September 29, 2023
How long before Fox shows the part of the speech where he stops talking because of the heckler and tries to make it look like he was having a McConnell moment.
Wow. Coming out of the first impeachment hearing, FOx News' Neil Cavuto says "I don't know what was achieved over these last 6+ hours," adds, "this was built up where there's smoke there would be fire... where there's smoke today, we got more smoke." pic.twitter.com/UjgdCCAF0S
— Matthew Gertz (@MattGertz) September 28, 2023
Casar: Will members of the oversight committee raise their hands if you believe both Hunter and Trump should be held accountable for any of indictments if convicted?
— Acyn (@Acyn) September 28, 2023
Democrats: *raises hands*
Republicans: pic.twitter.com/tZ8clpgW3c
Omg wow this pic.twitter.com/fnYcAXzcNf
— Acyn (@Acyn) September 28, 2023
The State Department casually rocking out tonight pic.twitter.com/Hi1D33PibL
— MeidasTouch (@MeidasTouch) September 28, 2023
January, 2023? What’s wrong with these people?
Did you see Nicolle’s interview with Cassidy Hutchinson? I thought it was good except for the hacking cough.
I wasn’t the only one who noticed Vivek’s poofy hair.
Telling my kids this is Vivek Ramaswamy pic.twitter.com/rG1ZvY0GKh
— Mike Madrid (@madrid_mike) September 28, 2023
January, 2026?
Did he poof his hair up to make himself look taller?
Has Pence said DACA yet or is he just completely going to ignore the question?
Here is George Clooney response after Trump accused him of being a "Hollywood elite."
— CALL TO ACTIVISM (@CalltoActivism) September 27, 2023
"Here’s the thing: I grew up in Kentucky. I sold insurance door-to-door. I sold ladies’ shoes. I worked at an all-night liquor store. I would buy suits that were too big and too long and cut… pic.twitter.com/DY3y8sCEr0
Another shit show
I missed the first 10 minutes but I have it on now.
BREAKING: Judge Chutkan DENIES Trump’s motion for recusal. 1/ pic.twitter.com/VxMhAyeYAj
— Mueller, She Wrote (@MuellerSheWrote) September 27, 2023
👀
— Ryan Goodman (@rgoodlaw) September 26, 2023
NY judge in ruling on Trump organization fraud case:
"He [Trump] also seems to imply that the numbers cannot be inflated because he could find a 'buyer from Saudi Arabia' to pay any price he suggests." pic.twitter.com/x44imKe3ME
Nope.
Was it crowded?
Not as crowded as it usually seems to be.
No, I didn't know he was there. I would have liked to see him.
We had tickets for Carrie Underwood but right before we left I got an email that the show was cancelled and the only thing I could do was get a refund because the other nights were sold out.
We didn't get to see a show this time around at all.
It was a bit different because of the computer hacking but I still had a good time. When I went to check in they told me that I had cancelled my reservation, which I had not done, so they ended up upgrading me from a regular suite to a Sky Suite. I wasn't crazy about being on the 26th floor, but the suite was really nice so I sucked it up and enjoyed it.
Did you know that they are going to have the Formula 1 race on the strip in November? That should be nuts!
I like Alicia, their daughter, who works for MSNBC.
I never realized they were related. This could be a bit awkward for her.