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SPX, The notes show the green C target, I had discounted the 2390 previously as it seemed too low, however it has a good fit. The only Happy Family member that hasn't taken out the Feb low is NDX (QQQ).
A rally should happen before the final down target (I think) and would probably reset NAMO to OB. The notes show pink and purple down forks and I would think a rise to the top of the pink fork min, and if it's breached, to the top red tine as max which seems way up there now.
Qone0, Long time, hope you're well.
Yea, someone else posted a while back AJTJ was posting on SI.
Concerning his comments on Happy Family, AJ started it and certainly has the right to make the rules. His comment about NYA being booted has to do with a failure to make a new high along with the others about 8 years ago. AJ has never given full status of RUT, but always noted it was worth watching. I tend to include RUT as I am not aware of a failure and I tend to use TNA and TZA as investment vehicles.
Currently SPX has not taken out the Feb low, although RUT, NYA and some other non members such as BKX have already. According to the theory, the sell off will not be complete until the last of the members take out the Feb lows.
RCKS, nice call
JK, nice
My targets, the top downfork tine this week at about 2850, then down to 2500. Timewise, that 2500 might end at the 21st which would be options expiration week (my best guess based on fork fits which may be wrong) The 2500 target has the Happy family Theory of Markets backing it developed by AJTJ quite some time ago. We have NYA and BKX already took out the February low and SPX,INDU,RUT,DJA, still needs to make the low.
Thx JK, it's that thing about the blind chicken?
I thought we would finish the week up and look for bad news from the G20 summit. The light green down fork has been breached to the upside, not declared failed yet, but any more it will be. The purple down fork fits well, however it is a long 110 points for two days to hit the upper tine of the big red down fork which is my preferred target.
Another excellent call JK
SPX and SSEC: I'm looking for a retest of the top tine by end of month which is also the G20 meeting which I predict will be a disappointment. I have a chart showing the SSEC chart and where I think it will drop to at a lower point than 2009. I think it's still too high today to make any meaningful deals.
SPX 30 and 60: I'm still thinking we need a retest of the upper red down fork. The 60 has a red going up there and a purple showing a lower target. In any case, I think the election will be the pivot point with a high on the 6th and a drop after which unless there's something else involved would mean the democrats took control of the house. EDIT: there's a large discrepancy in the upper fork tine between the two charts, the 30 looks right, but the 3 month time frame doesn't allow to see the fork anchor hasn't moved. The 60 min upper tine is almost 40 points higher.
My call to retest the upper red tine seems so far away now, but is it pure coincident that price stopped at the lower purple downfork tine? QQQ below has the same pattern with the upper tine breach that went untested and price stopped at the lower tine as well. Well, in any case, the Happy Family Theory says we need to take out February's low before it's over
JK, You got your 2660 or so, good call.
kchan, There's some crazy neg D on most tops. The 90s had some major Neg D. I put a pink line thru the 200 and 2007 top on my monthly chart, I'm not inclined to put in a down fork yet for this though. My 1 hr chart below shows the labels in red as I'm following and it's an expanding pattern and the final "C" up could be quite large I'm thinking?
SPX 60, I think the blue ML we hit today is reasonably close and we should bounce. I have a .618 retrace set up as the highest bounce target around 2850 which would be around what I think max pain will be for options ex next week. This is a "C" down to complete the wave started by January drop and we will need to go up to new highs after the 11/6 bottom
NASA, your 11/7 date for an open is the same as my 11/6 close.
The Happy Family low which was activated with a couple indexes in Feb is still looking for lower lows than the Jan low. The chart below has a 2432 low on 11/6 that is a good fork position, although to satisfy the HFT it only needs a lower low than January.
SPX, Happy Family theory still needs a lower than Feb low. The rise from the Feb low is screaming corrective pattern and needs the final "C" down. Typically when the "B" exceeds the start of "A" the "C" will be around 1.618 of A and my chart at this point shows a 2390 target late Oct if the 2940 high remains the top. That would be a 23% decline and just cross the bear market threshold (over 20%)
Maybe the Federal Reserve just felt guilty and wanted to make things right?
The Federal reserve was complicit in the Great Recession and the Democrats infamous plan to boost minority homeownership started way back in 94 with BJ Clinton's term. The start of such socialist policies started with a radical change in the CRA with unpublished but verifiable quotas on banks to immediately double their minority loans which then would increase yearly until it was quadruple by the real estate top in 2007. The Federal Reserve used the threat of FDIC insurance to start the snowball rolling. Any bank wanting FDIC insurance which was every bank had to comply with the new policy. This was key as without this threat it's doubtful the new policy would have had a chance. Soon after the CRA change, the same requirements were thrown at the GSE's with the National Homeownership Strategy and then an agreement forced thru with legal threat to the Mortgage brokers Association.
3 more charts: DJA, NYA and TRAN all with dropping diagonal triple tags (shown as pink dotted diagonals) that can still be taken out before they're out of range. All charts have the 22nd as the end of the time period and the forks all look pretty good and it's a real possibility. One note for news tomorrow is a list of items for tariffs on China totaling 50 billion to be announced according to commerce department and that's about all I see as significant.
3 charts, RUT had a triple top that needed to be taken out and part of my expectations for a high tomorrow, however it was just taken out a bit ago and doesn't say anything now. Second is a spy chart with the existing high as a top and the SPX on the bottom with tomorrows new high. I don't really have a firm grip on this for tomorrow.
3 charts, DJA has two triple tags shown in pink, the steeper dropping one if it doesn't fail would limit the time to reach target to the June 8 time frame of the chart which is quite a steep drop. DJA also has a horizontal triple which has always performed while the steep triple has failed in the past. NYA also has the steep triple shown. NDX has a nice chart with the red fork ML tight to the same timeframe as the previous two. All have 10% + drops shown
COMPQ, another high possible? Monday is closed market and holiday 3 day weekend is often bullish.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=30&st=2018-01-10&en=2018-05-31&id=p48437371801&a=282143477&listNum=1
I have the current pattern shown as a triangle with a C down to go. The a,b,c,d,e waves are very close to dimishing .618 fibs of the previous. I C were to equal A down, the dark green fork with a 2375 target will be realized. The light orange reverse fork which is only so-so effective says 2525 is the max,
Hi RCKS,
Thanks for the thought.
I don't really have too much to offer lately, maybe
just a note that the Happy Family has both a new high with COMPQ in mid March that needs to be realized by the rest and also a new low by INDU and also BKX which isn't an official member, yet still significant. I think we go for the low very near term and then it takes some time for the high.
COMPQ made a new high, look for new highs across the board for Happy Family indices before this run is over. SPY chart shows Max Pain level for next Friday which is triple witching and the manipulators will be out in force. Pain level is much lower than Fridays close and price would need to move down considerably or up with the delta hedge theory for these situations shown on chart. Should be noted that indicators are very high and price is at top of some BBs and would need an extreme bull to continue higher at this pace.