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Ravi,
I believe we have reached a top now.
This chart is a 1 hr chart, same as I posted to RCKS, don't do much with daily charts.
I have one with Gleno's system on it but no annotations. I will be looking at QQQ, Tran and Wlsh charts for clues to the exact bottom. Looking for below 3400 SPX now
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=60&st=2020-03-02&en=2023-06-01&i=p37096076285&a=256257406&r=1660740730824
RCKS,
Yea, who knows if Pokersam used his real age in the IHUB bio, I saw one that said 130, he seems to have a good wit about him for being 89.
Long term count, (similar to poker's with exception to recent) these are only taken seriously by E Wave guys but I think the late 1800s to 1929 may be the A (or 1) 1929-1942 as the a of B (or 2) to 2000 would be the b of B (or 3) 200-2009 as c of B (or 4) and we're in the ending C (or 5th) now.
I think we're in the final C of the wave from 2009 to present
and the chart link below is that final C.
Note: if wave A (or 1) was from 1880ish to 1929 then C (or 5) would be kind of short at 14 years though.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=60&st=2020-03-02&en=2023-06-01&i=t5543408565c&a=256257406&r=1660691037845&r=1660692149501
RCKS, Pokersam listed his age at 72 here on Ihub and I don't think he's changed it since he set it up late 2005. No telling for sure, and I guess it doesn't matter much.
I read a couple of his posts and I saw something mentioned that Da Chief was banned from SI.
Thanks again for showing me where he's posting.
Thx RCKS, Pokersam must be near 90 by now and he's still looking for fights. Didn't know he was posting regular on SI
OK, here's 2008 with a 55% retrace, there's plenty more. Just goes to show you how fake news can be accepted so easily by those you would think are above it.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=D&st=2006-03-21&en=2009-08-05&i=p42390163052&a=1228569265&r=1660593607868&r=1660593982175
Hi RCKS, That's not even close to true, do you need some examples in a chart?
Gleno, The bottom indicator in my chart has your boss MACD setting and is the highest ever in stockcharts history going back to 1982. The second highest, June 2020 had a 10% drop imediately after
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=D&st=2019-11-01&i=t5117292522c&a=1228569265&r=1660579805961
Recent articles quote: ""Since 1950 there has never been a bear market rally that exceeded the 50% retracement and then gone on to make new cycle lows," said Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at BTIG, in a note earlier this month."
Krinsky used a chart and looked for .5 retraces after the completed drops and didn't look for retraces that occurred after just the 20% drop needed to be classified as a bear drop.
most of the bear drops had .5 or a bit more retraces after the 20% level and most went on to lower levels. I put in 10 minutes and found several 1980ish, 2000 was a point shy, 2008 and I'm sure there were more.
VIX, hit the lower fork tine. SPX is working on a long wick daily candle which would mark a nice top to this up move.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24VIX&p=60&st=2017-01-02&en=2023-12-29&i=t1006495113c&a=227142001&r=1660231371281&r=1660232101842&r=1660232682272
Hi Ravi, No real changes since last post. This c up of the big X is going strong, but should end soon. SPY chart and also INDU and QQQ that have good descending TLs (in pink dotted)that are sure to be taken out before the bottom.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=60&st=2021-11-01&en=2022-08-31&i=p87566873562&a=350704571&r=1660215048901&r=1660216328057
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24INDU&p=120&st=2020-01-01&en=2022-08-10&i=p92996162872&a=627530722&r=1660216675683
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=QQQ&p=60&st=2020-03-02&en=2022-08-31&i=p81605144810&a=403681284&r=1660216721945
SPY, Revised, the pattern has become clear and we're in the C up of the big X
If we go up more it should not be much as this fits well where we are now.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=60&st=2021-11-01&en=2022-08-31&i=t4112975076c&a=350704571&r=1659105033390&r=1659106253472&r=1659106401841
SPY: My read now is no more up and SPY to below 330 within 4 weeks
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=60&st=2021-11-01&en=2022-08-31&i=p29519913898&a=350704571&r=1658847575129
SPY, revised with the retrace of green X now at .382 and able to go higher
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=60&st=2021-11-01&en=2022-08-31&i=t1512743221c&a=350704571&r=1658497874190&r=1658497939630
SPY, price has breached my red fork and is at the limit of this pattern now, but still within if price reverses now. I'm going to try to add some wave pattern rules, the two retrace values in green have the left which is the main "B" or can also be labeled as an "X" as just pennies larger than the b of C wave on the right and should remain larger. EDIT: Price will want to breach the 400 level and there is also a gap fill just above, this would be something to see a reversal.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=60&st=2021-11-01&en=2022-07-29&i=p88716005681&a=350704571&r=1658487185156&r=1658487432186&r=1658487738336&r=1658487989637
SPY 1 hr: Price reversed right at the red fork upper tine
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=60&st=2021-11-01&en=2022-07-29&i=t4176699900c&a=350704571&m=o&r=1658169629693&r=1658169787410
Hi Gleno,
VIX low of the day was 24.13 , just on the bear side still then?
SPY, Price will need to end below the pink diagonal, 340 (minimum down) would be needed if it reaches it in 2 weeks and the longer it takes the lower it needs to be
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=60&st=2021-11-01&en=2022-07-29&i=p65995456684&a=350704571&r=1657847012972&r=1657847230835
Hi JK,
First we need to complete this drop.
Then, as I recognize this drop to be a c of B wave, we will then need a final C wave up to a new high. I envision after the completed drop we will have a oversold/short covering rally followed by a deep retrace then a slow grind up
SPX, purple red and black forks show a progressively smaller fractal wave patterns, 3 is the limit and we're ready to wrap up this down move.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=30&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=p89154292743&a=307755350&r=1656985992709&r=1657016429919
Head and shoulders formation that targets below 3300, second chart 1 hr has a good fit at the 3275 level down
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=30&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=p50136894017&a=307755350&r=1656430201070
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=60&st=2020-03-02&i=p21004081836&a=256257406&r=1656429577005&r=1656430402620
SPY chart shows the larger black labeled wave ending "B" and now a green labeled smaller wave I see as a fractal of the black also ending at "B" The green is making the "C" of the black and each needs more to complete the move down. The retracement (not shown) is nearly identical on the smaller green compared to the black where it is now and it would be a better fit not to go up any more.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=60&st=2021-11-01&en=2022-06-30&i=t0661352603c&a=350704571&r=1656272806015&r=1656273535761
SPX, we should be at a top again and go down from here
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=30&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=t6743145647c&a=307755350&m=o&r=1655825266148
We.re getting close now, three charts showing some clues:
TRAN needs to make it below the pink diagonal 12,275 (maybe 12,300) minimum down which is 5% more down
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24TRAN&p=60&st=2020-03-02&en=2022-06-17&i=p90176018060&a=279040575&r=1655394600787&r=1655395424172
WLSH made it past the pink diagonal and best fit has 35000 bottom and a little less than 4% more down
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24WLSH&p=60&st=2020-03-16&en=2022-06-24&i=p16802345866&a=671106384&r=1655395109392&r=1655395923501
SPX The chart has a 3500 bottom although there's a good fit at 3400 also
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=60&st=2020-03-02&en=2022-06-17&i=p76720949692&a=256257406&r=1655395397628&r=1655396250796
SPY chart, price ended at the big red fork ML and pink multi point diagonal TL and we're not done yet. The narrow channel down this week is quite steep and maybe gets a bit wider today with some pause and slight pullback. As with the 2018 and 2020 drops which coincided with triple witching, the down should complete this week or Monday maybe as 2018 did. The bottom target looks like it could go lower and reach RCKS target of 3400
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=60&st=2021-11-01&en=2022-06-30&i=p74664119451&a=350704571&r=1655198310531&r=1655198720302&r=1655198895062
SPY chart (2018 and 2020) shows when price gets away from Wall Street max pain the market makers short the market as a delta hedge and leads to extreme drops. Triple witching is next Friday.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=240&st=2009-01-01&en=2023-12-29&i=p93956216236&a=694297962&r=1654870935187&r=1654871120834
Target hit, I have 3650 SPX as approximate target now and in as little as 2 weeks
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=60&st=2020-03-02&en=2022-06-17&i=t1199016333c&a=256257406&r=1654253181130&r=1654253394169
No change again, we should hit the upper tine target tomorrow and time to shift from long to all in short
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=60&st=2021-11-01&en=2022-06-10&i=t6976505244c&a=350704571&r=1654112915805
The purple down fork upper tine is still the target, looks like maybe Tuesday reaches it.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=60&st=2021-11-01&en=2022-05-31&i=p76988450863&a=350704571&r=1653835361049&r=1653835505615
SPX 60 min: Need this up move to hit the red fork upper tine around 4200 to keep the chart in tact. End of the month move will be the driver. If that comes to be then the last move down should take us to just above 3600 (S&P futures chart has an inverse head and shoulders formation targeting about 4200 now)
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=60&st=2020-03-02&en=2022-06-30&i=t4195126777c&a=256257406&r=1653391217638&r=1653391331538
SPY 1 hr: I have the same chart as last with only a later target date. The upper tine of the purple down fork needs to be tagged before going down into the final low. At least 420 If it takes until the end of month, a little higher if sooner. We can talk about final lows beginning of next month. I saw TRAN made a sharp down move which was one issue I was looking at recently, TRAN had a bottom target seemingly too low and now it's more in line
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=60&st=2021-11-01&en=2022-05-31&i=p35796866464&a=350704571&r=1653042345073&r=1653042443842
I like it
This bounce to 425 SPY will be short lived and next week will start a drop of 20% within the next 3 weeks for the finally.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=60&st=2021-11-01&en=2022-05-31&i=p35796866464&a=350704571&r=1652783387055&r=1652783532509
Revised chart , SPY target for next week 425
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=60&st=2021-11-01&en=2022-05-31&i=p35796866464&a=350704571&r=1652450717534&r=1652451522264
SPY 30 min: Lower the target to 427 Friday and I think we need to go down just a tad more today or tomorrow, Wed morning CPI will be the start
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=30&st=2022-03-21&en=2022-05-20&i=t3127003402c&a=423085093&r=1652119098141
SPY 1 hr: The red circle at 431 is the target for Friday,
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=60&st=2021-11-01&en=2022-05-31&i=p74159233820&a=350704571&r=1652113994357&r=1652114874275
SPY 1 hr: the red circle is breach of the down fork and ideally should be retested. The purple fork fits this idea.
below is a 3 min SPX chart and I think we need a little down today to complete an abc down before starting back towards 4030
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=60&st=2021-11-01&en=2022-05-31&i=p52397266999&a=350704571&r=1651833650986
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=3&st=2022-04-20&en=2022-05-06&i=p13112031408&a=381238630&r=1651833941558
TRAN 1 hr: I think this needs to take out the pink diagonal TL which is very low and cause to lower price targets on the other indices. Both charts are set to may 31 and TRAN has a target price of 12300
SPX 1 hr: lowered price target just below 3700 looks right and maybe by EOM
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24TRAN&p=60&st=2020-03-02&en=2022-05-31&i=p31921801179&a=279040575&r=1651763918823
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=60&st=2020-03-02&en=2022-05-31&i=p22888032209&a=256257406&r=1651763870999
Looking for a big move up into Wed Fed meet, target 4366 from yesterday's 4132 close would be over a 5% move
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=3&st=2022-04-20&en=2022-05-06&i=p34416257451&a=381238630&r=1651330645914&r=1651331365137
RCKS,
AJ's newest "center point gap theory" may come into play with SPX?
If todays gap goes unfilled and we get another gap tomorrow or Wed
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=30&st=2022-02-18&en=2022-04-29&i=t9865322072c&a=307755350&r=1650905873124&r=1650906549458