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This has a look like we could be at the top here.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=30&st=2022-03-01&en=2022-10-31&i=t9724927824c&a=423085093&m=o&r=1666710615645
We hit the 364 target and bounced, going to lower the upper target to 384
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=60&st=2021-11-01&en=2022-11-04&i=p25794524297&a=350704571&r=1666406218848&r=1666406271557
Looks like the drop to match Friday's drop may happen early,
A retest of the down red channel we broke through yesterday would be the idea about SPY 364
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=60&st=2021-11-01&en=2022-11-04&i=p25794524297&a=350704571&r=1666179826873
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=1&st=2022-10-12&en=2022-10-21&i=p64898515424&a=407412312&r=1666178851235&r=1666178952861
From the 348 low we should have 5 waves up and Fridays (wave 2) drop was pretty steep and the 4th wave drop should be at least .618 to Friday's. Top of the third wave should be fairly close to the top and what my 383ish refers to, then up to 385 still. The wave pattern in the red circle is still worth following.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=60&st=2021-11-01&en=2022-11-04&i=p25794524297&a=350704571&r=1666147043260
We just back tested that green up fork ML that was gaped over.
We should have a pull back when we're closer to the top (383ish) for the
5 wave structure for this move.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=30&st=2022-03-01&en=2022-10-31&i=p05003030135&a=423085093&r=1666104496180&r=1666105237251
Should, (might) be similar to the red circle, that earlier pattern is basically the same. It waterfalled down after a very short time at the top.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=60&st=2021-11-01&en=2022-10-31&i=p94188994509&a=350704571&r=1665697048406&r=1665697283566
SPY 385 in the next few days, maybe by Fri even.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=60&st=2021-11-01&en=2022-10-31&i=p94188994509&a=350704571&r=1665531463259&r=1665531643753
Here's what I think now, we go up out of the down channel a bit, maybe Monday for a top. The first chart has a small green up fork that looks to be resistance now. The same 30 minute chart has a black dotted TL that I think possible to hit EDIT: the second SPY chart shows the top target higher than the 30 minute, the 30 minute is better I think
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=30&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=t7162788475c&a=307755350&r=1665068626048&r=1665069316693
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=60&st=2021-11-01&en=2022-10-31&i=p94188994509&a=350704571&r=1665068836749&r=1665069656597
We're at or very near the top of the down channel and looking at wave structures
Some notes on chart, the lime green comparing this wave to the previous
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=60&st=2021-11-01&en=2022-10-31&i=p94188994509&a=350704571&r=1664903882808&r=1664904106339&r=1664904203715&r=1664904276548
I'm suspicious of this may be an extension of the B (it looks like a core b now) and needs one more down move before the c of B. Need a bit more to be sure though if even possible to be sure.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=30&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=t6230622032c&a=307755350&m=o&r=1664898146676
Agree, the sooner it hits the top the higher the target I think. EOW will be in your lower target area
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=1&st=2022-08-01&en=2022-10-07&i=p91291857893&a=465225541&r=1664809467573&r=1664810204577
The up wave to complete B is following the Sept 1 - 12 wave.
Top out to Oct 5
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=1&st=2022-08-01&en=2022-10-07&i=t6230271853c&a=465225541&m=o&r=1664479366885
We got the 1/2% more down and an SPY new low, The WLSH chart was screwy today and showed an 8% spike up and I don't know if WLSH made a new low. If not then only WLSH,Compq and NDX are the only happy family members not making the low and is more typical of this. There should be plenty of calls for "the bottom is in later this week and early next. maybe the 3890 will run into the 1st, Monday
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=60&st=2021-11-01&en=2022-10-31&i=p94188994509&a=350704571&r=1664317273149&r=1664317417162
I see one already and two at the end of next week
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=60&st=2021-11-01&en=2022-10-31&i=p94188994509&a=350704571&r=1664133419831&r=1664133569646
I deleted post 049 and replaced with 051 because a typo, I put target 3980 and should have been 3890
SPX 1 min with 3890 target for next Friday and some notes about the failed Thursday 389 SPY call. This particular "B" pattern is typically longer with the E Wavers calling it a 3rd wave and 3rd waves are supposed to longer. Maybe it is similar to the previous wave I was following on the SPY 1 hr chart but a little different? I looked at the possibility of the B lengthening more but had difficulties making it work, I'm still looking at some different indexes for clues but this fits best for now. We had some indexes take out June lows, INDU,NYA,SOX,SPXEW,TRAN and some that didn't including 11 points shy for SPX,WLSH,COMPQ,NDX,OEX and IWM which is the highest above at 1.36% above. This is a somewhat typical pattern although it's more usual to just have one or two indexes not following thru and leaves open the possibility of another 1/2% down Monday morning.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=1&st=2022-08-15&en=2022-09-30&i=p43000437760&a=465225541&r=1664055095047
WLSH 5 min: the B here looks really well proportioned and right.
Makes me feel like the count is correct.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24WLSH&p=5&st=2022-08-12&en=2022-09-30&i=t4723474524c&a=312087305&r=1664054754847&r=1664055389548
INDU made a new low today HFTOM says the rest will
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24INDU&p=120&st=2020-01-01&i=t9618708987c&a=627530722&r=1663946428572
Following the pervious wave is out now.
Price gapped below the red ML and should retest it at some point
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=60&st=2021-11-01&en=2022-10-31&i=t6730154456c&a=350704571&m=o&r=1663943412588&r=1663943534028
Max pain for tomorrow is actually 387 now, I quoted 390 previously.
Here's a 1 min chart with the 387 target
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=1&st=2022-09-08&en=2022-09-23&i=p86084418396&a=465225541&r=1663874634319&r=1663874680034
SPY update
The possible wave pattern repeating is still holding and if so, we should go up into tomorrow. SPY max pain is at about 390 and where the next move should go
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=60&st=2021-11-01&en=2022-10-31&i=t7603842939c&a=350704571&m=o&r=1663861557872&r=1663861699642
SPY revised
The current wave shouldn't be expected to be exactly the same as the previous, but until it isn't we could follow it.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=60&st=2021-11-01&en=2022-10-31&i=p12606413136&a=350704571&r=1663796548510&r=1663796715800&r=1663797486709&r=1663806678540&r=1663807547628
The green line is what I think is most likely. We would be in the 3rd wave for E Wave and b of B for S Wave.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=60&st=2020-03-02&en=2022-10-31&i=p64431130502&a=256257406&r=1663290885395&r=1663291450006
The retrace is nearly identical, we should retrace only from 420.23, the start of the B wave. The A wave was already retraced a minimum of .382 nearly the same in each
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=60&st=2021-11-01&en=2022-09-30&i=t4133488820c&a=350704571&r=1662833455574&r=1662840355815&r=1662841054690
The indicators, both intraday and daily are in near the exact position as "were we are" in the first chart and the black vertical lines in both charts, the daily being the second with lots of indicators including McClellin Nasdaq and SPX
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=60&st=2021-11-01&en=2022-09-30&i=t4133488820c&a=350704571&r=1662833455574&r=1662840355815
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&i=p80904384686&a=422057008&r=1662825120968&r=1662825398630
Inflation expectations from Fed next Mon and CPI Tues. Last triple witching (next week is triple W again) had a 500 point drop in a week (the options market makers seem to have shorted the market thru a Swiss bank account and spread rumors the Swiss bank did it, there's never any complaints when they run price up to increase their profits, but shorting it brings a lot of anger and they don't want the exposure)
SPY chart: If the red "c" line were a 1.618 x red a it would bring price down to a new low around the bottom of the green line
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=60&st=2021-11-01&en=2022-09-30&i=p64439423943&a=350704571&r=1662803529831&r=1662803822214&r=1662810034038
SPY chart: The current wave is very similar to the previous and if it did the same would drop next week to the purple fork ML. The max pain for next weeks triple witching however is just 20 SPX points below us now so there's no real incentive for the options market to run it down. Also, the current wave if it is to make it down to 3175 seems to be too short.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=60&st=2021-11-01&en=2022-09-30&i=p64439423943&a=350704571&r=1662747958955&r=1662748752680
Andrews forks, the typical application is for the ML anchor at a starting point and then anchor the upper and lower tines at the "A" and "B" which are typically in a sharp corrective pattern such as the red down fork in the chart with the final move hitting the ML just as intended. S Wave has determined the 2nd,3rd, and 4th waves of typical E Wave to actually be a "B" so the Blue up fork anchors are basically the same idea and at the A and B locations. The current chart is showing the lower tine now at about 3175 and should be a firm support for the bottom. The second chart shows the 60 min current predicted bottom to be in the right place.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=W&yr=14&mn=0&dy=0&i=p01237075733&a=291223101&r=1662476511689&r=1662477361669&r=1662483019199
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=60&st=2020-03-02&en=2022-10-31&i=p64431130502&a=256257406&r=1662483006356
SPX chart again with added notes and my best guess what will happen. I think to take out those descending TLs in the previous post charts we need to do so soon as they are going lower at a good clip and next year they will be too low. The green dotted line pointing at the final bottom and Sept 16 at the first low is What I think fits best. This is a fast drop and bounces should be short lived.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=60&st=2020-03-02&en=2022-10-31&i=t7477701978c&a=256257406&r=1662381298210&r=1662381457460&r=1662383047419
The drop ending in 02 is the closest I could find to compare.
First chart is a daily with the complete pattern and second is the ending "Y" which is what I think we're in.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=D&st=2000-01-03&en=2003-12-31&i=p77472030269&a=1160527009&r=1662374868398&r=1662376028036&r=1662378662873&r=1662382345970&r=1662382456424
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=60&st=2002-01-01&en=2003-01-01&i=p92572953802&a=1243545761&r=1662378058069&r=1662382274380
JK, Easy question, like who's the next president or what's the meaning of life.
Here's what I have in a few posts:
First, A very typical pattern will have a low followed by a large retrace followed by a lower low with positive divergence on the RSI in the daily chart. The green dotted steep descending dotted lines pointing to the red circles will be shown again in a following post on older patterns.
Second, the TLs in pink descending dotted lines are dependable to be taken out if they are exact tags in threes and less than 45 degree.
SPX doesn't have a valid one, but COMPQ,NDX,WLSH,IWM,TRAN do and I think these will be taken out (red circle)
Charts with valid TLs, notice the recent top hits the blue fork ML in each:
EDIT: I added SPX chart with the same guidelines as the others and the tag of the blue fork ML
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24COMPQ&p=60&st=2020-03-02&en=2022-10-31&i=p74788079992&a=296516480&r=1662379331250&r=1662379518572
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24NDX&p=60&st=2020-02-03&en=2022-10-31&i=t9404807390c&a=206458422&r=1662380216722&r=1662380394567
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24WLSH&p=60&st=2020-03-02&en=2022-10-31&i=t7180521358c&a=671106384&r=1662380477055&r=1662380628843
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=IWM&p=120&st=2020-03-02&en=2022-10-31&i=t2939075650c&a=462160483&r=1662380829288&r=1662380943229
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=60&st=2020-03-02&en=2022-10-31&i=t7477701978c&a=256257406&r=1662381298210&r=1662381457460
Finished red b and heading toward blue b. Wave green c was 2.52 x green a and may help predict a larger bounce after we reach blue b
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=1&st=2022-08-15&en=2022-09-02&i=p02321808562&a=465225541&r=1662138946763&r=1662139040370&r=1662139614722
This wave pattern looks like it needs another day down and then a bounce that will have a fib relation to the 82 point up wave above it
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=1&st=2022-08-15&en=2022-09-16&i=t4080968883c&a=465225541&r=1662070765324
JK, the .618 retrace lines up with the gap fill, maybe not just coincidence
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24NDX&p=5&yr=0&mn=0&dy=20&i=t1990892919c&a=662692591&r=1661859477603&r=1661859516685
SPX 1 min, looking for a good bonce here to 4170
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=1&st=2022-08-15&en=2022-09-02&i=t9102496315c&a=465225541&r=1661807411612&r=1661807514390&r=1661807989876
JK,
I second that request for more detail on your target. If I remember correctly, you have an E Wave history. Pokersam is looking for a steep drop to 2200 SPX.
Ravi,
The purple arrow is set at the same angle as wave "A" and hits about Sept 23
As a note, triple witching is Sept 16 and should be watched for manipulation
as they don't like to lose. as we get closer to witching, max pain over or under current target should be used to try to follow their delta hedging
EDIT: I sure wasn't the first to see the 200 DMA as a top target.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=60&st=2020-03-02&en=2023-06-01&i=p37096076285&a=256257406&r=1660921138954&r=1660922004478
RCKS,
I put together a chart of the 2008-9 drop and although it's much larger than what we have current, the wave pattern starts out very close then has a divergence I note in the rectangle of two waves missing that changes the pattern significantly and explains why I think we need another low. top chart 2008, lower chart current. Let me know if I made it clear, it's a bit rushed and messy.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=D&st=2007-03-01&en=2009-08-05&i=p13576795422&a=1228569265&r=1660757167761
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=60&st=2020-03-02&en=2023-06-01&i=p37096076285&a=256257406&r=1660756412368
Ravi,
I have a few charts with descending TLs that I believe will be taken out.
Shown as pink dotted lines in chart. SPX doesn't have a dependable one now, I did show a smaller one some time ago, but I have faded that.
These three charts can be used as a percentage down to compare to SPX and the longer we take the farther down it will need to go. As we drop, maybe there will be some reaction to the down forks for more clues.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=QQQ&p=60&st=2020-03-02&en=2022-09-16&i=p55484536349&a=403681284&r=1660744721502
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24WLSH&p=60&st=2020-03-02&en=2022-09-16&i=p43764819771&a=671106384&r=1660745084536
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24INDU&p=120&st=2020-01-01&en=2022-09-16&i=p60247056748&a=627530722&r=1660745678161