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VIP, Russia's 2nd largest mobile phone company, is up over 40% since I mentioned it a few months ago and over 90% from the beginning of the year. Is LTBH really dead?
Benj
tommy t...I have wondered about the effect of forign immigration on RE and am beginning to believe it is rather significant. Lots of money bidding up properties was the name of the game, certainly in my area. My aunt's house was purchased by an immigrant and one of the founders of CMRC. He cashed out near the top I believe and threw a lot of money around. He did not like the way the forest on the three acres was arranged so he decided to rearrange it at
$30,000 a tree. Lots and lots of trees. He also bid the house up 70% over the asking price. This behavior was not uncommon although probably not as pervasive at the present time.
Benj
Hi Newly...Thanks, that's about how I remember it though a bit fuzzy. What is crystal clear was that my job as an architectural illustrator was destroyed over night. The phone just went dead.
What we may be seeing around here is the stage of panic buying I suppose but the pace at which the developers are buldozing the sierra's is frightening.
Some stats say that Ca is losing population but I don't believe it. I am wondering though that if there is a bubble on the verge of decompressing, and believing that the dramatic rise in RE during the last three years was artificially induced by AG, might not the decline be accelerated due to the nature of it's rise. A puzzlement in me mind. Time will tell as always.
Benj
Newly...some minor cracks showing here in central coast Ca home prices but people are still trying to get $450,000
for a 600 sq. ft. delapidated matchbox "home" with five
feet of concrete poured around it in a questionable neighborhood, and often getting it. Median home prices around these parts is now $625,000. There still seems to be lots of cash around and I as well as the realtors I talk to are wondering where it is comming from. Do you happen to remember how long it took for the 30-35% drop in your area to take place? From top to bottom that is.
Benj
ot---Lee, you made me cough up my Ding Dong with that quip! BTW, Don't tell anybody but it's almost g...g...g...
golf time here. Problem is I plugged a couple of golfers... I mean gofers, right between the eyes with my trusty pellet rifle and they got back at me by breaking my ankle in one of their holes. Ah well, all is fair in love and war.
This is what has kept the world turning and who's to say it's wrong? A sudden halt at this point could tip the earth off it's axis and send all that we know of and love crashing to bits... Sounds tempting...
phineas...one of my favorites. A doozy indeed!!!
Yes...he turned his back on even his own long held beliefs.
Newly... AG was in Rand's inner circle but was never really "in" as I understand it. Those that were observed him with a wary eye. From what views did AG do an about face on in your opinion?
Benj
Bearmove... was wondering when you were going to bring up the RHAT. Looks like they're finally making a couple of bucks. BTW, were these pro forma bucks or gaap bucks.
Benj
Lee... I'm running on fumes but before I fall on my face I must tell you that I don't know what an 80 chart is. And Lee, please put the blowtorch down. We don't need any "perms-on-fire" on this thread.<G> Nice dissertation on bonds. Now I must perform my vampire act and dive under a rock before the sun comes up.
Benj
Hi Dan, It is late and has been a very long day and night and I am a bit punchy so if my post seemed convoluted I'll blame it on that.<G> Best to you.
Benj
Dan...Yes and no. No because if those are part of your parameters for an investment or trade, I see no difference between gold and tobacco stocks. You see continued atrocities supporting gold and others would see people committing atrocities on themselves supporting tobacco. Both rely on tragedy, speaking strictly within the context of your comments. Not trying to get moral here as we all know investing/trading have no room for it.
basserdan...from your discourse reguarding the positive effects that terrorist activities have on PMs should we not now consider these to be "sin" stocks?
jdaasoc...I believe in the beneficial aspects of wine as well. Cholesterol reduction is a big one too. 20 years ago I had an operation at Stanford and I had the lowest level of cholesterol they had seen. I told them that it was due to red wine, that I felt it acted as a thinner toward
cholesterol. Years later the medical journals were saying the same thing. Also, Alexis Lichine, author of the Ecyclopedia of Wine and Eisenhower's wine man during WW2, and who, BTW, was there when Patton was in tears, pounding the table about going in and taking out Russia while we had the chance, extolled wine as providing 17-20% of the daily nutritional needs with the judicious consumption of about 3 glasses of wine a day. Cheers.
Hey Lee...back from the wilds. Agree that insiders are not so savvy as to stock performance, even though Roy Disney is selling 43% of his stock in Disney.
Re: "premature congratulations"...now that was funny. Thinking and talking can spoil many things. <G>
I'm getting the feeling that you are a "day trader." <G>
But you're talking about the "Big Serious Important Money"
and bonds. What's up with that?
Finally, please no disparaging remarks about Clint.<G>
He's been belly good to me!
Interesting that the western states are leading the decline in mortgage applications while other sectors of the nation, such as the southern states are still on the rise.
Lee...OT...since your up and it's early I wanted to get back to you on the "g" word. Being autodidactic in most respects I am disinclined to read golf publications though my buddies do, especially the doctors. One is so overly analytical that he has 38 steps to his swing that he is conscious of.
I think that you think like I think that thinking is the root of all evil during your swing. Throw away the books and magazines, trust in "The Force" and dance I say. BTW, have you tried teaching the ladies to golf ala Peter J? You know, start with the irons, then take them into the woods.
Bullwinkle...Yes, BGO's find of 40-50 g/t is rather astounding to most. Deposits of 4-5 g/t are considered to be relatively high grade I believe.
Benj
mlsoft--- When I look at all the evidence I find myself in your camp. I see selected, unsustainable pockets of recovery. But I have been totally wrong about many things the past couple of years, especially realestate.
The Undertaker saw to that. I'm just trying to look at things with a ballanced perspective and make sure that I am not limiting myself to ideas that I just happen to agree with. Thanks for your perspective.
Now I fear I must again go out and try to catch the rat, literally, that is terrorizing our autos. A formidable opponent.
Benj
mlsoft--- AG, as I am sure you are aware of, was nicknamed "The Undertaker" by Rand's inner circle. Any special meaning to you? <G> Does for me.
The general take from the public I run into is that the economy is improving, unless they are people from the tech sector. When you look at Catapillar and John Deer I have to wonder if they are not right. Thoughts?
Benj
I like Corey. He is more of a journalist than the others, reporting the facts as he sees them and letting you decide without the circus act most of them get into. Which reminds me of the guy in the circus who's job it was to follow the elephant around and shovel all the dung. His friend one day asks him why he does not quit the crappy job to which he exclaims, " What, and give up show
business!??
urmygold1--- Off topic....I hear ya. California is like any other state, only more so being one of the top ten economies in the world. It's driven by special interests, IMO. Greenspan tags Democrats as propontents of the wefare state, spending more money on pet programs than the system brings in and who are not anxious to see the dollar pegged to gold or anything that would curtail spending.
Watching special interest first hand was an eye opener. In my college days some friends were working with some senators trying to get a recycling bill passed. We went to the capitol in Sacratomato to listen to hearings that were now at the finance committee. The six members had already
made their minds up (they had a constituency to protect and in turn their jobs as well) and turned a deaf ear to the speakers, be they physicists from Stanford or a senator from Vermont. They entertained themselves by leaning back in their chairs and telling jokes to each other. The large crowd in the balconies was getting restless. The men paid no attention until a hot looking Latin woman with absolutly nothing relevant to say stepped up to the podium. She was against the bill. The committee members came to attention abrutly, sat on the edge of their seats, leaned on their elbows and with bulging eyes admired the various virtues of the ravishing lady. The crowd erupted into a frenzy of boos, uncomplimentary language and the like and began throwing objects at the esteemed members of the finance committee. Needless to say the bill was finally passed fifteen years later creating whole new industries and relieving some environmental pressures. Patience is a virtue, eh?
Benj
A large chunk of Calif.'s deficit is due to the loss of
$10 billion in capital gains taxes after tech demise without reining in spending---per CNBC
Lee---LOL, A little pine pitch should help you hold on to your club. {G} Due to general malaise I have been swinging like I am trying to hit the ball about a hundred yards, even driving. Making such sweet contact I am flying most greens and have to rethink my yardage for every club. Even having some drives of over 300yds. Scoring is another matter as I am playing seldom but at this point just hitting the ball soundly has been a blast. Really works for me.
As far as bonds goes about all I know is, as you say, [as bond prices decine, yields rise and visa-versa]
Time for some zzzzzzzzz's
Benj
Lee---when you say the fed does what is necessary to create an auction that is heavily oversubscribed, just how is this done. I am rather ignorant about bonds.
BTW, how's the golf game. Just got a new set of clubs through Ebay and am itching to get out, if only my back will cooperate.
Benj
mainehiker---Just got back from the sea to the mountain.
A great day nestled in the dunes with my wife under one arm, head on chest, our Leonberger under the other arm, head on chest, and a good bottle of wine on the side
while watching the wildlife go about it's daily routine. That's the good life in my book.
But yeah, while I may have been harsh about it obesity in this country is a problem. Just seems to highlight the general gluttony of our society in many respects. The world depends on our gluttony. I am appalled by it personally but realize that I am in the vast minority on this point.
Newly was right I believe in his response to Joes' rant to Lee, if you follow me, in that you have to pick your fights. I happened to agree with what joe was saying but when a gale wind is in your face it is usless to try to piss into it.
At any rate, I hope you survived the monsoon OK.
Benj
On and off topic---Ugly day for longs and uglier after the close. The long expected rise in interest rates is upon us with many lovely consequences of the rebalancing act to unfold before our very eyes. Well, enough of the on topic stuff.
Now for the off topic. Saw a clip of dozens of little or not so little fat piggy school childeren trying to do some jumping jacks and just could not resist comment. Pathetic. Anyone notice how truly fat most of the residents of this country are? Tubs of lard everywhere. This is what I took away from recent travels.
From children to adults a large percentage of the populace are fat pigs. They may be wanting for jobs in the future but they sure are not wanting for food in the present. We went through one town in No. Cal. and walked by a restaurant called the "House O 'Lard" and the line was long. A "Bucket O' Lard" was $5.99, a "Tub O' Lard" was
$6.99, and a "Trough O' Lard" was free if you could eat it all and by the looks of all the licked clean troughs out back the resaurant was losing dough. Disgusting. A four hundred pounder in line ahead of me in a grocery store had five eskimo pies tucked under her arm, devouring another from one hand and waving food stamps from the other.
She looked at me and said, "I have a gland problem"..... Yeah. Some people with lavish spending habits claim they don't by happiness, they buy away unhappiness. Are the obese members of this country trying to eat their way out of unhappness?
While Amarican companies are getting lean and mean it's population has become anything but. Time for people to get off their overstuffed rears and get their lives under control and stop with the obsessive behavior which is a detriment to themselves and the rest of this society.
I will now leap off my mile high soap box and dive head first into a vat of Crisco.
JMO and just kidding everyone. Not! {GGG}
Time for a hike
As Indian engineers or workers in other fields gain experience and expertise the pay scale should climb as well and the playing field will level somewhat I suspect.
We saw this in Japan.
What country has he most uneducated engineers?
Bearmove---Anicdotal evidence indicates that manufacturing jobs are heading to India as well. An acquaintance of mine who was a machinist for Seagate and several other companies just got back from India after a seven month "tour of duty", his second, the purpose of which was to teach his skills. The four other fellows who joined him the first time declined the second tour, having had enough of the squalor for a lifetime. He was not particularly impressed with the hands on skill level of those he was teaching, referring to them as being only "paper trained"
but highly educated at that. This is probably why he was sent over there in the first place. I cannot believe that the Indian workers will not be every bit as skilled as anyone else after some experience. Some of the most talented surgeons I know of in the states are Indian, most with hands of gold.
Benj
DiphcOracl---You have mirrored exactly the thoughts of a friend of mine who is the VP of a junior and good trader as well. Thinks the world of gold is just too wacky to trade.
Benj
osprey---Thanks for posting your personal experiences with and knowledge of Porter. Awhile back some friends sent me
one of his blurbs and wanted to know what I thought. It was my opinion that, while not knowing anything about this person, the blurb had a heavy aroma of snake oil. It's nice to see that my instincts were correct at least in respect to your post. All just my opinion of course.(G)
Time to chime out again for further travels. Happy trading.
Benj
Joe---I like your thought.
Well, Newly, not personally wishing you or anyone else ill will finacially, I for one can't wait for the catalyst to step up and take a bow. I've been waiting for three years to impliment "Master plan Two" ( "Master Plan One" being liquidation in 2000) which was to, after the certain, IMO, plunge of RE, buy all the mansions I could for $29.95.:)
Uncle Al obviously had different plans, however, and we will all know how his ingenious maneuverings to date unfold in the fullness of time I suppose.
Benj
Newly---Thanks, that seems a plausible explanation on the refi end. How much of a hike in interest rates do you think would put a crimp in the purchasing of homes. Some brokers I've talked to said that even 7-7.5 percent rates would not slow down their customers. This is in No.Cal.
BTW, nice to here of the energy conservation efforts but looks like there is a long way to go. I've read and hear that alternative energy accounts for only one half of one percent of our nations needs. As for water, industrial use dwarfs the general publics use as well. It takes 100 gallons of water to make one gallon of wine for instance.
I think I could let that slide however.:)
Benj
GD---The less one knows about the "Hubbard methodology" the better, IMO. Scientology is mind control, often ruthless, for control of others for ones benefit. On second thought one should know about it for self defence I suppose.
JMO, Benj
Newly >>>>>They predict that financing volume will plunge from $2.60 trillion in 2003 to roughly $850 billion in
2004. The pair believe that this will result from an increase from the 30-year mortgage interest rate, which they predict will climb from 5.5 percent in 2003 to 5.6 percent in 2004.<<<<<<
Do you have an idea of why they expect a two thirds drop in volume from a one tenth of one percent rise in interest
rates?
Benj
OT--Joe...exactly my take as well. I think it may not have been what TG was saying but maybe how he said it.
Benj
mlsof---LOL... Gore on steroids in lycra on a mountain bike...Yikes!!
Yes, the bulls out here are rather amorous, watching sunsets and sipping wine. (GG)
Benj