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wbmw wrote (quite a while ago) Intel will undersell AMD's entire lineup and clobber them in sales.
Either way, AMD is going to lose. Intel's lineup is the strongest they've had in years, and for the first time, they are being very aggressive in pricing. Spin it any way you want, but AMD is not going to be gaining share anywhere.
Hmmmm. Haven't been here in a while - but that deserved an answer.
It seems like Intel took share from Motorola/IBM in apple boxes (leading to a 3% increase in their sales) but that other than that AMD continues to take sockets away from Intel in PCs. They certainly don't appear to be "clobbering" AMD in sales. AMD gaining a solid foothold in desktops, notebooks, and servers at Dell has been a big help and should help AMD to continue to gain ground against Intel.
AMD entered Q4 with 23.3 per cent of the x86 market, up from 22 per cent in Q2, an increase of 1.3 percentage points. Intel's share rose by a higher margin: up 3.1 percentage points to 76.1 per cent.
http://www.reghardware.co.uk/2006/11/01/q3_x86_chip_market_stats/
Re: Just sold a bunch more INTC Puts
Condolences....
Re: So good that AMD is selling it off to someone else?
Hey, marketing doesn't get much more aggressive than that! They're not just selling some of the Geodes, they're selling all of them!
AMD to cut prices by 2/3s on most chips.
With output from 3 times as many FABs as they had last quarter (from 1 to 3) AMD is slashing prices next week:
http://images.dailytech.com/nimage/2094_large_amd_pricing_1023.png
Intel is expected to exit 2006 with NGA parts at a run rate of 40%. So they'll likely average less than 20% over the next two quarters (ramp likely will accelerate a bit rather than be linear). The other 80% of Intel's production for the rest of the year will be Netburst parts facing that new AMD pricing.
Not great for AMD, by any means, but given Intel has 10 times as many employees to pay, this is going to be a tough year for Intel.
Intel hasn't faced this kind of financial pressure for a long time. Their working capital is down more than $5 Billion in the past 2 quarters and they're starting to accumulate some debt.
RE: The guy has been there for more than 30 years.
He had to wait until he was fully vested in the health care plan.
Re: their ASPs are going to be closer to, if not below, $100 this quarter Bookmarked! We'll see when Intel releases their microprocessor revenue just how absurd this comment is.
You're claiming Intel's ASPs will be greater this quarter (farther from $100) than last quarter?
BOOKMARKED !!!
Re: Woodcrest to debut on June 26
Woodcrest has been debuing for a couple of months, now.
When's it going to ship in volume?
When will moderately priced Woodcrest systems (to reflect the moderate prices Intel says it will ask for the parts) be available for immediate shipment?
If AMD wanted to play this game it could release some quad core K8L samples and announce an imminent "debut", but AMD doesn't want to do this since they aren't the ones with tanking sales and a horrible this quarter and next (or more) that they need to distract attention from.
After months and months of promises, hype, and previews, what happens if Woodcrest has some teething problems?
Re: AMD pushing tri gate
AMD has a group that's exploring Fin-Fet.
Both companies are exploring both technologies but AMD seems to like Fin-Fet a lot more than Intel does.
Re: What about the scores of dual core Pentium D products available?
Yeah! Boxed in retail packaging, with a large, expensive heatsink and fan, for around $130 after the wholesalers and distributors have added their markups.
A real money maker.
Re: pointer please.
Sorry - I had tri-gate and Fin-Fet mixed up. It was Fin-Fet that Intel was down on, not tri-gate.
Regards,
Dan
http://www.eetimes.com/news/latest/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=168601256
Re: ASP about $150
I think you're way too high.
We'll see when they release numbers.
Recent model Penium 4s (the bulk of Intel sales) are available at retail, after markup and distribution costs, for under $100.
Celeron models are under $50. Just what Intel gets when a distributor or OEM buys thousands of these is not clear, but their ASPs are going to closer to, if not below, $100 this quarter.
Re: As you can see, everybody can buy one
What does it cost Intel to FAB, package, and test one of those die, then put it in a box with a good quality heatsink and fan and ship it to one of the dozens of on line retailer who sell it for <$40 after making some markup?
Many of the people who buy one of these $40 parts would otherwise have bought a $100 or $200 CPU from Intel.
Obviously, they aren't recouping any general, marketing, administrative, or FAB costs, but they can't even be recovering marginal costs.
Maybe they can make some of it up in chipset sales, except that there are 147 under $50 motherboards to choose from for this part that and they're almost all SiS, Via based.
What are Intel's profits going to be this quarter?
We've been throught this.
AMD has been pushing tri-gate for some time, and has hinted they might use is as soon as 45nm.
Intel has publicly said that it didn't think tri-gate was viable for mass production - a lot like they said SOI wasn't worth the trouble.
Re: AMD DOES NOT HAVE A 65nm process.
Keep telling yourself that, maybe you'll start to believe it.
Re: The slide explaining that TDP
Try comparing Intel parts from a couple of quarters ago to this fall's upcoming AMD parts and see which is more power efficient.
Re: I'm not looking forward to debugging code which failed on a "hundred-core" machine.
LOL!!
Well put!
Re: Flash isn't even on my radar. Is NOR flash that much of a millstone for Intel as it was for AMD?
It seems almost certain. The one qualifier is, what else are you going to do with a half depreciated FAB? So some costs may have been shifted from the CPU segment to the flash segment as flash helpfully soaked up older FAB capacity, or, at least, some tools.
Re: There's a bloodbath in the markets overseas so be a bit careful about buying the dips.
I'm mostly out of things for now. Had some KBH puts (and a small number of Intel puts, too) that made some pocket money. AMD puts would have been better than Intel puts, but the homebuilders are the way to make money, right now.
I think things are going to be grim until after the elections and hurrican season.
Regards
Dan
Re:
Intel Core 2 Extreme X6800 Preview from Taiwan
Did it fail the Linux compile test, again?
Re: I remember when Intel bought up Digital's StrongARM technology, which later became XScale. It was being called "Bill Gates winning the lottery."
Now Intel is looking for someone to buy XScale, and it's being called "How Intel wasted billions."
I thought it was flash that was costing money and that XScale was a decent product line.
AMD is continuing to aggressively market its geode and Alchemy embedded processor lines which are much less developed, so AMD must see this as a good market with good prospects.
I understand a flash spinoff by Intel but am also confused by an XScale spinoff. It's not even a big enough deal to draw attention away from a bad quarter (should such an event happen).
Re: this price looks like a bargain on a long-term basis.
What kind of earnings are you expecting at the next quarterly conference call? What kind of financial guidance do you expect they will they be giving for Q3 at that time?
Re If I were Intel, I'd want to blow the doors off AMD.
Well, when your monthly CPU sales are down 52%, year on year, you gotta do something!
How big do you think Intel's miss will be? 5%? 10%? More?
Troubled Intel Corp. has put several of its loss-ridden communications-chip businesses on the block, including its network processors, XScale chip lines and other products...
...Most recently, struggling Intel will halt future development of optical physical-layer products developed by Giga A/S, a Copenhagen company Intel acquired in 2000 for $1.25 billion.
With little or no fanfare, Intel is moving out of the embedded chip space. And there is speculation that Intel will exit or spin-off its NOR flash unit, which is also losing a ton of money.
Still to be seen, however, is what Intel will do with it bread-and-butter microprocessor business, which is losing share to rival Advanced Micro Devices Inc. One of the products in danger at Intel could be the 64-bit Itanium processor line, a chip that was late to market and has generated lackluster demand
See the rest at: http://www.eetimes.com/news/semi/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=188701421
A good strategy might be to cover up some of this quarter's and next quarter's operating shortfalls with a couple of multi-billion dollar write-offs associated with the sale of these various operations. They can spin the shortfalls as being unrelated to today's businesses.
Maybe they'll sell "the rights" to Itanium to HP for some nominal price and take a big paper loss on it.
Re: do you think the article is accurate?
I think it's accurate for the month of April (which is all it claims) and that that trend should continue for the next quarter or so (unless they are sitting on 50 million NGA parts and will just dumpster any remaining Yonah and Netburst inventory).
Let's face it - Intel has been shouting from the rooftops that everything it presently has available for sale is about to be replaced by much better parts that cost less. Every single part it presently offers for sale.
And some of the changes are pretty significant - 64-bit notebook parts, server chips that use half the power of current chips, etc.
Why in the world would Intel sales do anything but plummet?
Re: A better pointer is needed.
At the meeting place announcing the operational demonstration of the sample due to 65nm production process
Was a caption displayed below picture of a running system that had a big 65nm sign next to it.
http://translate.google.com/translate?u=http%3A%2F%2Fjournal.mycom.co.jp%2Fnews%2F2006%2F06%2F03%2F1...
Re: I guess he never heard of 40W Woodcrest LV chips before.
LOL!! You're comparing something that won't be available for months to something that's was first on the shelves months ago.
By the time Intel has serious volume of their future products available, AMD will have serious volumes of future products available, too.
Keep in mind that during all the years that AMD has maintained its current power/performance lead, one that dwarfs anything that Intel might manage for a couple months, share has changed only at a rate of a couple of percent a month.
With K8L being available a quarter or two after woodcrest (and being supported by AMD's superior socket 1207 platform infrastructure that will be available concurrent with woodcrest availability), it makes no sense for companies to do anything other than continue their migration away from Xeon CPU systems and towards the Opteron platform.
The Opteron platform is proven, more scalable than "big PC" Xeon platform, and the Opteron platform supports specialized coprocessors for TOE, encryption, 3D, compression, Floating Point, etc. Opteron platforms are being made available with Reliability, Availability, and Scalability features to rival Itanium.
Woodcrest Xeon and its platform is simply a big PC - compared to Opteron, Woodcrest Xeon isn't really a server.
Re: They haven't even demonstrated a 65nm part yet
An honest mistake, on your part, I'm sure.
Here's a photo of a 65nm system that they demonstrated recently.
http://journal.mycom.co.jp/news/2006/06/03/100.html
You won't be posting any more "they haven't even demonstrated 65nm" comments, right? You just didn't know you were mistaken.
Re: The only way I can see them maintaining a 100W power envelope is by using massively underclocked parts, around 2.2GHz or less
Current dual core 64-bit Athlon 64 X2's use 65w at 2.4ghz and 89w at 2.6ghz.
Those are current production parts, 90nm, without SiGe. By the time Conroe is available in any volume, AMD will be shipping parts several notches faster at the same or lower power use.
Or are you comparing power used by two AMD chips to that used by one Intel chip? OK let's turn it around the other way - Hey! 2.33ghz Conroe (dual) uses 130 watts but 2.4ghz Athlon X2 (single) only uses 65watts!
http://www.amdcompare.com/us-en/desktop/details.aspx?opn=ADO4600IAA5CU
http://www.amdcompare.com/us-en/desktop/details.aspx?opn=ADO5000IAA5CU
Re: Yeah, moving from 8" to 12" wafers, shrinking a process node, and increasing throughput by 50% nets a 7x increase, but it's absurd to claim that this will also mean 7x capacity.
That's why I posted that the 7x increase would let them go from 20+% of the market to 40% or 50% - a little more than a doubling of production units.
Dan
Re: When caught in an indefensible position, pretend that you never held that position in the first place.
It's not nice to say things like that about WBMW and his sudden reversal on SuperPI.
So, do you think Intel's 52% sales drop is going to affect the stock, or is it already priced in?
Handelsbanken claimed Intel "stuffed the channels with chips in February and March, the floor fell out in April, and sales dropped 52% year on year"....
The firm said in a note to its clients that Intel processor prices fell 40 per cent year on year in April, with volumes dropping by 21 per cent. That leads Handelsbanken to the view that Intel will deliver another profit warning, guiding Q2 sales to $7.9 billion, versus a consensus figure of $8.4 billion.
Ouch! Asps down 40% and units down 21%
http://www.handelsbanken.se/shb/inet/Icentsv.nsf/vlookupfirstpage/handelsbankense
Translated: http://www.theinquirer.net/?article=32136
Re: AMD to Invest US$2.5 Billion in Germany to Expand 300mm Microprocessor Production
Since moving to 12" wafers increases the number of chips produced per wafer by 2.25+ (less edge loss), and moving to 65nm doubles capacity per mm2....
Moving to 45K 12" 65nm WSPW from 30K 8" 90nm WSPSW represents growth to about 7 times their current capacity - and they're supplying more than 20% of the market now.
Next year's chips will need a lot more transistors than this year's, and the after even more, plus the market is growing (let's hope!).
Still - this lets AMD go for 40% to 50% of the market while keeping costs and number of employees about where they are today.
And Intel is expanding too.
Looks like a heck of a price war is coming, just a Intel's gross margins have been falling and Intel's cash has been shrinking. Unfortunate timing for Intel - check out what's been happening to their liquid reserves vs. debt. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bs?s=INTC Meanwhile, costs have been rising fast: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=INTC&annual
The GM syndrome?
RE: way how about some super pi benchmarks.
I'll just let WBMW explain to you how meaningless super pi is as a benchmark.
It's one of his favorite pastimes.
Re: I will shove it squarely in your face when dual core Turdion fails to ignite AMD's mobile market share
Regardless of what happens to share, the point of that article was that prices for mobile parts were going to be falling drastically, not that Intel was going to lose share. And a very significant part of Intel's profits have been coming from mobile.
Let me post again what was highlighted in the post you red-herring responded to: Notebook demand in Taiwan has weakened significantly since April, say sources at domestic distributors, who expect that a price war will ignite in the third quarter as a result of inventory issues.
But, since you introduced the subject - weren't you the one shouting at all of us, in what must have been several hundred posts, that Core (not to mention Core Duo) was going drive AMD's mobile share to near zero? But AMD's mobile share has been steadily rising....
Re: AMD has had 125W on their roadmaps for a long time now:
But that's for 3.4 - 3.6ghz parts that compete with NGA high end parts.
Re: Now, what is going to prevent Intel from regaining share in desktop, and maintain laptop share?
There are a couple of things to consider -
AMD has been capacity constrained for some time, which has resulted in some pent up demand for their CPUs, and that will be satisified as AMD moves from 1 FAB to 3 FABs over the next couple of quarters.
Intel has been talking about how much better its NGA parts are compared to its current parts, but it will be many quarters before its line is all NGA. Meanwhile, Intel's own marketing has been convincing people that they need an alternative to any of the parts Intel sells today, and that they should also avoid most of the parts Intel will be selling for some of (or most of) the coming year.
Dell has just announced that, by the end of the year, Dells high end server systems will be AMD while the mid range and low end stuff will be Intel based. That's going to drive some users to AMD through the "halo" effect, but the real question begging surprise is that new line is being introduced at the at the end of the year - when NGA server chips will be available and Intel was supposed to be back on top.
Apparently AMD has some better stuff coming than we've been led to expect. The time frame in which Dell has decided to dump Intel for high end servers is the time frame in which NGA server chips are expected to first be widely available. It may be that NGA is either not binning as well as hoped, has been made to look better than it really is through cherry picking benchmarks, or a combination of that and AMD's upcoming stuff is quite a bit better than we'd thought.
Re: I've been out of the stock market for quite a while now.
Smart move - it's starting to look like it's price war time in the CPU business, at the same time Oil prices are up, interest rates are up, and housing values are static to falling.
RE: Tell us when you bought and when you sold and pull posts to prove it
I don't post buys and sells.
But it would have been very difficult to have not made money on a stock that's gone from $3 to $30 in the past couple of years.
Vs. Intel which has.... not.
Re: Let's see how much money you've made.
Actually, it's been a pretty good year.
How's that "heavy into Intel" strategy been working out for you?
Re: I already realized that when INTC dropped below the support line of 20, it will take a while before a new support level is defined.
Yep, dead money.