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“These are interesting times for PPHM”
You said a mouth full there…!!!
And I agree…” However, realization of share holder value through a half billion market capitalization doesn't do much to assign value to Bavi.”
That was attempted in one of my previous posts where I stated:
“With the potential market cap after FDA approval (USA only market) using the double low number of 9.45B yields a per share price of $145.00”
When I put that out there I was expecting someone to find an order of magnitude error…So far most of the correction/comments centered around the time frame assumptions I made…
Hmmmm….
A few billion here…A few billion there…Soon we’ll be talking big money…!!!
Interesting time indeed…!!!
Regards,
Golfho
Thanks cjgaddy…
You are truly an incredible source of data…
That may be the deal that is being offered or was offered and rejected…Who knows…My thoughts are…Or more accurately…The questions I am pondering are:
1- In light of the statements from management and Dr Garnick about accelerated approval…How does that affect any deal?
2- What would be the royalty to PPHM on such a deal?
3- What time frame are we looking at?
As stated early; my intent is to try to establish an enterprise value for PPHM. My first rough draft was for Bavi and for only one indication, NSCLC. I put out that rough draft a while back and received great feedback. This is now an attempt at establishing the enterprise value that Cotara provides.
Thanks for your help.
Regards
Golfho
The value of Cotara…
Per cjgaddys’ recent post concerning the market potential for the GBM medical therapy
According to this 2008 paper, “the U.S. market potential for this indication [GBM] is expected to exceed $200mm annually.”
According to this 2007 paper, “the global market potential for GBM medical therapy is estimated to be worth $700 million.”
Deals can take many forms; to try to determine the final form/forms and try to determine how many partnering deals would be impossibly for me, and may not be very important for this exercise.
Using these numbers and assuming that PPHM wants to partner Cotara and not go it alone; and further assume that there will be three regional deals (USA, Europe and Asia/And everyone else)
Now for the time frame…Dr Garnick…If I remember correctly…Said that Cotara could receive accelerated approval from the FDA…If my memory serves me correctly…within a 2.5 year time frame…Now, would that be for second line treatment only? Do we need to complete a PIII trial before first line treatment is approved? How long does it take for the other agencies to approve Cotara for their area?
The following is pure conjecture on my part. I’ll assume that PPHM at some point in the future…Will make a partnering deal for Cotara. I think that management would like to make several deals to maximize the return to PPHM. I would think that the people that management have been talking to would like the whole enchilada…
Now…A while back…When we were dealing with R & R…Rem…Dropped a number like 30-40M for Cotara…cjgaddy; can you dig up something on that?
It seems that management walked away from that…At that time many were complaining that management should take any deal in order to move on.
So lets see…And here again, I’ll need a little help.
Partnering deals seem to me to fall into a pattern where the partner provides resources for the trials i.e. money, expertise; those resources could cover the complete cost of the trials or some percentage of the cost. In addition it appears to me that there is an inverse ration between the amount of upfront money and the residual royalty that is paid.
So I’ll pick a completely arbitrary pattern and SWAG this with…The partners provide most…not all…of the money to complete the necessary trials and pays a 10-15% royalty on sales. (Any comments?)
Now for the fun part…
In the time frame of 2.5 years and 5 years Cotara could be approved worldwide as the first line…SOC for GBM…
With a “global market potential of $700M” annually and to be conservative I assume only a 50% market penetration and the lower royalty of 10%, that would represent a $350M annual income to the partners…and a $35M annual income to PPHM.
You pick your favorite P/E
10…?...$350M enterprise value for Cotara alone…
15…?...$525M enterprise value for Cotara alone…
Soooo…Maybe management was correct in walking away from R & R
WOW…I’m beginning to sound like Froot-loops…
Isn’t it time for a PKelly sighting…???
I have to go now…
We’re heading out to a Marti Gras party later and my wife wants me to get started…
Regards
Golfho
JGal;
I needed to take some time to respond to your post…Partly because I’m generally slow at doing anything…Partly because; an angry insulting post ultimately serves no real purpose other than releasing some frustration…And if there is any nugget of valuable information it will be lost…just simply…deleted…
Sooooo…
Let’s assume that I am eric…
No…No…Really…I’m eric…
And now…I…eric…Will ask you several very important questions; that I have asked over the last few posts, concerning the potential value of PPHM in the future…
Please note that you have responded many times to eric’s posts…errr…My posts…
The question that I’ve been trying to asses is…
What is the potential value of this enterprise if the…Good…Bad…or…Very Rosy Scenario…Occurs…???
I gave my first SWAG in post 47439…To which I received some very constructive commentary…Commentary that helped be refine my analysis of MY investment in the enterprise called PPHM.
Way back in…February…2009…In your post #32825…You wrote…
“dia76ca, No need to imagine anything. If approved - on either side of the equation - off label use will likely be dramatic. But a question for the board re valuation - ie, probable market cap in such a scenario. How do you value a company which may in essence have a "magic bullet" for multiple indications - be it on a stand alone or combo basis? Many people have suggested share prices which they would like to see, but I haven't seen much discussion re realistic and attainable market caps. We have our thoughts, but I thought it might be interesting to get a little discussion going on this issue.”
I tried to in my post 47539 to address that very question…And I’ve asked you more than once to amplify on your…” but I haven't seen much discussion re realistic and attainable market caps. We have our thoughts, but I thought it might be interesting to get a little discussion going on this issue.”
Hence…
I…
Golfho…
eric…
Whomever…
Await Your…Thoughts…
Specifically…
In reference to the value of the enterprise…
Called PPHM…
Including…
Bavi…
Cotara…
Avid…
Or anything else…I've omitted
Regards
Golfho
Has anyone else noticed that all of the goals on the presentation slide for milestones were dated 2010 and not 2011...?
Not very important...
But someone should have caught that...!!!
Regards,
Golfho
Thanks for your detailed contributions throughout the years…
Regards
Golfho
Thanks...
Unfortunately I was unable to hear the web cast…Can you or someone please list the milestones?
Thanks
Regards
Golfho
Got it...
Thanks
Regards
Golfho
I would like it if you are right on this subject...
Regards
Rick
Thank you;
I'll tackle the other aspects of this enterprise soon...That would be my glacial soon...
Regards
Golfho
In regard to Tandburg1’s post
”The time to complete the previous bavi cancer trials isn't a good comparison for the upcoming trial for two reasons:
1. Those trials included an evaluation period halfway through. This added several months to the length of the trials.
2. Each of those trials were at one center. I would hope the new lung cancer trial will be at multiple centers.”
Thank you very much Tandburg1…
This kind of error catching is what I’m looking for…
I reviewed the PR’s and came up with the following…Perhaps someone can dig up the missing data
I had 17 months for the Georgia breast cancer trial and clear statements as to when the first 15 were enrolled and when the second stage enrollment started ~ 3 months that brings the start to finish for the 46 patients to ~ 14 months
I had 11 months for the Indian breast cancer trial. After reviewing the PR’s in detail it appeared that there was no specific start date reported for enrolling the second stage only a “dosing is underway” statement reported on 4-27-09. So if we use the 1st dosed to 1st 15 patient dosing completed and add dosing underway to 2nd stage completed dosing we get a blistering 7 months…!!!
I had 16 months for the Indian NSCLC cancer trial. The PR’s were not as specific as well; however I feel comfortable subtracting 5 months using the “dosing is underway” PR date, which now brings this to ~ 11 months
That averages out to 10.6 months…Ohhhh…!!! I like that…!!!
I also believe that with the injection of Dr Garnick into the parade; finding centers to perform the trials may be far more easier. The only thing left to slow things down would be the lack of a timely infusion of money.
In regards to Mojo’s post
”I think your missing the point. The NSCLC phase 2 trial that you described as lasting 4 ½ to 6 years is a regular full length trial. That type of trial wasn't one of the options that SK said they would use to win FDA approval. A phase 2 trial that had interim results that are very good could be used for accelerated approval based on that surrogate end point. This is one of the options SK was talking about and I estimated would take about 2 ½ years.
mojo”
Mojo
I’ve revised some of my number and come up with the following:
I still SWAG the design phase to be 4 to 6 month. Dr Garnick came on board at the end of October, SK stated that he anticipates being in several new trails in the first half of the year. Assuming that the design started around Dec. then the April – June time frame to submit the registration to the FDA fits in nicely.
FDA approval time…? 2 -4 months…?
I’ll go with a revised trial duration of 10.6 months…I’ll use 12 months for simplicity’s sake.
I’m not sure that the FDA would approve use of Bavi until the statistical data provided convincing evidence. This is still a small trial; it’s a double blind test. I believe that half of the patients will receive Bavi and the other half would receive a placebo (SOC). I still think that PPHM must demonstrate a significant improvement in survivor data to receive accelerated approval. Please correct me if I’m wrong but It’s my impression that “accelerated approval” is approval before a PIII is started and not on interim PII data.
Regards
Golfho
THREES…
I agree with many of your points.
This was not a fully comprehensive analysis of the entire enterprise; it’s a start and started with seven questions. The seventh “The potential market cap allocated to PPHM if many solid tumors indication are approved.” Was not even addressed…Because I fell off my chair after looking at the first line NSCLC calculation…!!!
My initial goal was to simply answer those seven questions. My second goal is to refine the model and transport it to an Excel spreadsheet. That’s why I asked everyone to review the analysis. Did I start with inaccurate statistics? Is my SWAG for cost of treatment off? Can someone provide more accurate numbers? Did I make a simply math error? Did I omit an important factor? The calculations were made with a hand held calculator and most of the draft post was written on a scratch pad…And mostly with a glass of wine nearby…usually not the first…!!!
Once I get this transported to Excel it becomes a flexible living model, to which I will add in the other enterprise factors.
As you stated…
1 -The impact of AVID and the Biosimilars effort.
2 – Cotara
3 – The AV potential
I hope your daughter does well and that PPHM is a success before the collage bill arrives…Good luck
Entdoc…
“A few thoughts: it is the stock "run-up" price during the approval process that nets the most bang for the buck, not necessarily the final approval as such.”
I can’t agree with you more…I hope I finish all of my nibbling first.
On your point about bio’s I know next to nothing about this however it would seem to me that any Mab would need to go through a lot of testing because of the very nature of the proteins and their dissimilarities even from the same source.
Hayward…
“To me it seems your perceived time frames and PPS are based on start up with no prior results.
If at ASCO we reveal survival results that are as stunning as we all hope your assessment of time to fill trials and PPS are way off.”
I agree that there many factors that could raise the PPS in the next few months/quarters, for one ASCO could be an eye opener. I am building my model for the long term probability; trying to use numbers/factors that don’t have error margins that are measured in orders of magnitude. In addition I firmly believe that management is attempting to go this alone; to me that implies that the sell of shelf shares will be occurring periodically and generally around the time of good news releases.
Mojojojo…
“I think your time frame of 4 ½ to 6 years to get an FDA approval for second line NSCLC is way off. SK said that if results looked very good with the new phase 2 trial they would go for accelerated approval. Maybe 2 ½ years would be a good guess to get approval.”
I agree…Sooner is better; however predicting the best possible scenario never brought me anything but misery and grief…I’m retired now by when I worked as an engineer, my mission was often to design and price a system that didn’t yet exist…The way you do that is, when you encounter a portion of the program that is unknown you assign it a high risk factor…Stuff that is tried and true…you know…things that were done many time before, get very small risk factors.
Now comes the fun part of every project…
Engineering provides an estimated cost and time to completion…
Program Management coughs up a hair ball and tells Engineering to rework the numbers because marketing said that the whisper number is ½ our number.
Engineering gets together and tries their best…their best is to assign all efforts as low risk and then report back to management that…”IF everything in the world goes our way we MIGHT have a chance at pulling it off.
Program Management runs to Upper Management and reports that Engineering is inline with Marketing lets go forward…
Sometime later…Generally around the time between the middle and final one third of the project some bean counter yells…”WE’RE GOING TO RUN OUT OF MONEY”
There is a hastily assembled meeting in front of upper management where Program Management states…”Engineering gave us unrealistic numbers”
They then turn to Engineering and ask…
“THESE ARE YOUR NUMBERS…RIGHT?”
Enough reminiscing…
Back to the question of 4.5 to 6 years vs. 2.5 years for approval of Bavi as second line treatment for NSCLC
My starting point is now and includes the design and filing time I SWAGed it at 6 months
I now go with the average time for the three pervious PII trails at 14.7 months
I still think that we will need to wait for the data to show survival data and that data won’t be available until the last few patients pass the one year time frame
Don’t forget that PPHM must assemble the data package and submit it to the FDA. The FDA will need some time to review the data, 3 to 6 months?
Is 2.5 years possible…?
Yes…Just barely…Under the Rosiest of Scenarios.
I’d like to see that happen once in my life…!!!
Regards
Golfho
THREES, Hayward, entdoc and mojojojo
Thanks for the replies…A lot to think about. I’ll get back to your points soon. Right not my wife wants me to get moving…We’re meeting friend for drinks and dinner and drinks…:)
Enjoy the game tomorrow…
Regards
Golfho
Thanks jessme;
My apologies, I wasn’t trying to attack you. I was not saying “if you don't like it sell" It was an oddly worded way to ask; what do you see that’s good and what has kept you hanging in for so long. I will also try to answer your questions.
“Maybe you can tell me what these dog and pony shows have accomplished in your 10 years as an investor.”
In my view very little to date. So yes I agree with you they have yielded very little material value so far. I feel that that may change in the future.
“What do Johnson and Pohl bring to the table that they deserve $80,000 a year plus options.”
As far as I can see they bring nothing much to the table…they came as part of the Swartz team…In my view this is not unusual; cronyism and good old boy networking is part of the reality of the shark infested cesspool that is Wall St. So sucking money out of the company whether the company is successful or not is very much standard operating procedure for upper management in today’s corporate world.
“Johnson is an attorney yet we go to outside legal whenever there is a problem.”
Yes…And?
“Please show me where I accused anyone of being a criminal or bumbling idiot.”
My apologies again for not being clearer when I wrote “In addition you and others are not at all happy with the current management. The opinions range from bumbling idiots to outright criminals.” I was referring to a collective negative sentiment not you specifically.
“How about I have said King is an apprentice CEO learning as he goes?”
No disagreement there…However I think he’s come a long way…And I also think that he should take some pubic speaking courses…And change his hair style…But that’s just my opinion.
“Swartz at least invests his money in the company. Pohl just collects his money and I see nothing that he adds to
the BOD. Johnson is a lackie of Swartz and adds nothing IMO”
Yep, Yep and Yep
Regards
Golfho
A little light reading for the weekend…
I started to compose this message/analysis several weeks ago. It was prompted by a post from sunstar about Roche and its market cap. However…Most of the things that I ponder, I ponder in glacial speed. So time has moved on and the analysis has morphed…A product of my thinking process and Wine…
In addition, over a year ago JGal asked an interesting question…This may address some of that.
There are several things that I would like to get my arms around and would like to get some feedback on:
On the Oncology side:
1- The time required to complete this new PII trial for NSCLC
2- The cost for this study
3- The potential market cap allocated to PPHM for a successful second line NSCLC treatment.
4- The time required to complete a PIII trail and FDA approval for first line use of this combo
5- The potential market cap allocated to PPHM for a successful first line NSCLC treatment.
6- The potential market cap allocated to PPHM if many solid tumors indication are approved.
On the Viral side:
This to me is a little easer. Easer in the sense that I chose to only consider the TMTI contract for now. HIV research in my view is not controlled by PPHM.
The TMTI contract was awarded in June 2008 and the first performance period will end in June 2010. That implies to me that some time between NOW and June we will know whether TMTI will continue the research. I think sooner than later. If the research is yielding positive results then the need to continue this research, uninterrupted would require that the continuation contract be sighed well before June.
Someone please hit the Staples “That Was Easy” button.
Now for the tough stuff…
The stuff that PPHM is controlling directly, the Oncology side
1 - The time required to complete this new PII trial for NSCLC:
Design and registration period:
My SWAG (Scientific_Wild_Assed_Guess): 4 - 6 months
Start of enrollment to completion of enrollment:
Based on the three PII trials conducted by PPHM
Georgia Breast Cancer: From Initiation to completion of enrollment = 17 months – 46 patients
India NSCLC: From Initiation to completion of enrollment = 16 months – 49 patients
India Breast: From Initiation to completion of enrollment = 11 months – 46 patients
If PPHM were able to triple the number of sites from the previous trials it would still take a minimum of 14.7 months (Average of the 3 trials) to complete enrollment.
The worst case scenario would be the sum of the 3 trials = 44 months.
So what could it be…???
Anyone…?
My SWAG…I’ll go with the average…29-30 months
To which we must add the time from the last enrolled to the last enrolled data to provide meaningful data on survival. Lets call that 1 year minimum…Anyone care to refine this…?
So, in my view, a reasonable estimate of the time from design of trial through completion and meaningful data could be approx. 48 months…Gulp!…nearly 4 years.
Time for FDA approval:
You pick it…I’ll go with 6 months to 1.5 years.
Soooo…
To me it looks like PPHM could have Bavi used as an adjuvant for second line NSCLC in 4.5 to 6 years.
2 - The cost for this study:
A while back someone posted an estimate for a PII trial. My recollection was that the cost was approx 20K to 30K per patient. I think that that is more in line with pharmaceuticals and not necessarily applicable to Mabs. I have no idea what the cost is to produce Bavi so for now I’ll use the approx. cost of Avasten treatment as an approximation (Anyone care to refine this…???) I’ll call it 40K and add 15K for the data analysis and other trial costs (55K per patient…???) 120 X 55K = 6.6M
3 - The potential market cap allocated to PPHM for a successful second line NSCLC treatment.
I’ll need a little help here…
My cursory research found that there are 1.35M new cases of Lung cancer a year world wide and about 80% are NSCLC. That yields 1.08M annually. I don’t know how many patients have a successful outcome with the first line treatment or do not go on to the second line treatment so I will SWAG this at 60%. That yields 648K annually world wide. Lets further assume that PPHM will go for FDA approval first, Europe second and then the world. There are approx 175K new cases of NSCLC annually in the USA and using my same 60% assumption yields approx. 105K second line NSCLC cases in the USA. There are approx 300K new cases of NSCLC annually in the Europe and using my same 60% assumption yields approx. 180K second line NSCLC cases in the Europe. The cost…More importantly the amount of money PPHM receives per treatment…(More help needed here, please) Another SWAG but there are several Mabs; Avastin and Herceptin that cost about 50K per treatment. However there are significant dosing differences and perhaps other factors that could affect the cost. So for now I’ll go with a range of 20K to 50K
So…based on these SWAGs and further assume that PPHM can achieve a 30% market penetration for second line NSCLC that would yield a formula that looks something like this:
For the USA market:
Number of second line NSCLC patients (105K) X 30% market penetration (.3) X cost of treatment (20K to 50K) = 630M for the low side and 1.575B on the high side
For the European market:
Number of second line NSCLC patients (180K) X 30% market penetration (.3) X cost of treatment (20K to 50K) = 1.08B for the low side and 2.7B on the high side
For the World wide market:
Number of second line NSCLC patients (648K) X 30% market penetration (.3) X cost of treatment (20K to 50K) = 3.89B for the low side and 16.2B on the high side
Now to complete the question of market cap allocated to PPHM for a successful second line NSCLC treatment. I’ll arbitrarily select a low (15) and an average (25) P/E ratio.
For the USA market with 30% penetration:
15 X 630M for the double low side = 9.45B
25 X 1.575B for the double high side = 39.375B
For the European market with 30% penetration:
15 X 1.08B for the double low side = 16.2B
25 X 2.7B for the double high side = 67.5B
For the combined USA and European market at 30% penetration:
For the low side = 25.65B
For the high side = 106.9B
For the World wide market at 30% penetration:
15 X 3.89B for the double low side = 58.35B
25 X 16.2B for the double high side = 405B
4 – The time required to complete a PIII trail and FDA approval for first line use of this combo
I’ll go with a SWAG of between 6 and 8 years.
5 - The potential market cap allocated to PPHM for a successful first line NSCLC treatment worldwide.
With 1.08M new cases annually and as the Gold Standard (I’ll go with 65% usage) PPHM could be treating 702K patients annually. Using the same assumed treatment cost SWAGs of 20K and 50K and the same P/E ratios of 15 and 25 yields the following high/low range.
Low: 210.6B
High: 877.5B
I consider the low number to be more realistic and incredible at the same time…!!!.
6 - The potential market cap allocated to PPHM if many solid tumors indication are approved.
I can’t begin to think about that….!!!
Yet…
Soooo…JGal, I’ve shared my preliminary analysis of the cost, time frame and potential worth of our investment in PPHM. I invite all to provide feedback and if you JGal, have an analysis that you would like to share please post it.
A note to jessme…
I purchased my first shares of TCLN at the end of 2000. It was a tip from a friend who bought it prior to the run to $16.00. My first purchase was around $3.00 (Post split $15.00) and post run-up. When I invested I thought that Cotara and Oncolym, would give me a very nice return within a few years. So I certainly do appreciate your frustration in the slow progress, however if you have any experience in investing in biotecks and pharmas you know that it takes over a decade to bring a drug to market. As a matter of fact you posted a link a few weeks ago from Duke Clinical Research Institute that had a slide entitled “Increasing Drug Development Time” that has the average development time at 14.2 years. When the current management took over in 2003 and they refocused resources to a new Mab called Bavi a reset to the time to success should have been calculated. Part of this analysis is to help me wrap my arms around that issue. In addition you and others are not at all happy with the current management. The opinions range from bumbling idiots to outright criminals. Over the years I have rated them in the range between D and B. My opinion is that they recovered from there early blunders and recently have made some smart decisions, hence a current B rating in my Risk analysis. However if you truly do think that they are really sub par and you do realize that they will not be replaced then why wouldn’t you move on?
Conclusions and personal points:
I’ll take the worst case scenario…
It will take PPHM 6 years from now to get FDA approval for second line NSCLC treatment. In addition I will assume that they will draw down all of the remaining 45M left on the shelf. I will further assume that the share price will not rise above the current level of $3.00 for all of the shelf shares. That implies that PPHM must sell 15M shares to raise that amount of money. Current shares outstanding is 50M add 15M = 65M shares more or less at the time PPHM gets FDA approval.
NOW…For those of you who are not very keen on this stock or management I will state very clearly…
There still is a statistical possibility of failure in this clinical trial of about 33% and I realize that this could go into the pooper if Bavi fails.
However on the potential up side…
With the potential market cap after FDA approval (USA only market) using the double low number of 9.45B yields a per share price of $145.00
My first few posts on the board involved assessing the risk, which I still calculate at 20:1
Soooo…
If my $3.00 bet today can yield a $145.00 reward six years from now a 48:1 reward…vs a 20:1 risk factor…
I see that as a very good bet.
A classic high risk high reward scenario…
I hope that this painfully long post stimulates responses that will ultimately lead to a more refined model, that I will incorporate into an Excel spreadsheet that will be updated as events unfold.
Regards,
Golfho
Here is the IR correspondence dated 12-11-09 with personal information removed.
Sent: Monday, December 07, 2009 6:12 AM
To: Investor Relations
Subject: Questions
The following comment was submitted via the Peregrine Pharmaceuticals, Inc. website by XX
Investor relations: Last week I wrote to you requesting clarification and information. To date I have not received a response. If you have responded; can you resend it? I did not receive it. If you have not responded yet; can you? The following is a copy of the request: There are several questions I have and several issues I would like clarified. Poison pill pricing: Prior to the reverse split the PP price was set at $11.00 1- Is the PP now $55.00? Several months ago the company announced that they would be selling up to $50M through an ATM agreement with William Smith. It appears that approx. $17M might have been raised during Sept. 2- Will you confirm that? Another way for the company to raise money would be to offer to current shareholders an opportunity to purchase directly from the company as well. This has been a successful strategy for several companies. Stock Rights Offerings are shareholder friendly. They would allow the long term investor to directly support the company with a cash infusion and would eliminate or reduce the dilution factor. 3- Will the company offer a Stock Rights offering before the current shareholders are diluted to oblivion? I thank you in advance for your reply
Regards,
XXX
The pricing of the poison pill provision remains at $11 following the reverse stock split.
The amount of capital raised through the at-the-market offering agreement with Wm. Smith is reported in each quarter's 10-Q filing. From the 10-Q filed on December 10:
As of October 31, 2009, we had sold 1,429,582 shares of common stock at market prices under the July 2009 AMI Agreement in exchange for net proceeds of $5,240,000. The average price of the shares sold was $3.78.
Peregrine does not have plans for a stock rights offering at this time.
Thank you for your support of Peregrine.
And FWIW I agree the wording in the filing would appear to imply an adjustment
Regards
Golfho
FYI
I contacted IR a while back and asked that specific question. Their response was that the PP remained at $11.00
There was no explanation.
Regards
Golfho
Can you elaborate?
What have you heard that BOT has stated?
Thanks in advance
Golfho
Can anyone verify the after hours quote?
finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=PPHM&t=1d#chart1:symbol=pphm;range=1d;indicator=volume+mfi;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined[/url][tag]Yahoo after hours
Golfho
Jake…
Talk about beating a dead horse…
I don’t want to shock you too much but…Very few people associated with Wall Street are even remotely altruistic. In my view, this management is about average in that respect. No better…No worst.
If you truly believe in what you are saying…If you believe your “Inside information” then you should start nibbling NOW…Your words…”Mgmt sold 4.39 mil shares and raised over 17 mil during the last qtr according to my sources.. Well isn’t that about 1/3 of the money they said they wanted to raise? We investors have no way of knowing what management’s moves will be. You do your best DD, you calculate the risk and then if you like your odds you place your bets…or walk away from the table.
FWIW…I bought some at $2.74 today. My lowest buy was at $.29 and I sold some of that at $.71 I now have more free shares. I will continue to nibble away during this down turn…And will sell a bit on the upswings.
The weather here in the NY metro area is going to take a turn for the worst…so I’m going out now to hit a few balls.
I hope everyone has a great weekend
Regards
Golfho
I agree r...
It's that I don't yet know how to factor that into my equation…
And when someone starts to discuss the “M” word…Bad thing are rained upon them…
FWIW…I think that manipulation is occurring…To what extent, what direction and what the end result will be is well beyond my understanding.
What factor do I attribute to it?
10%...20%...
Ahhh…
These are the things that keep a retired engineer up all night…
Golfho
Still looking for those little e's under your bed...?
WELL…
It’s been five months since my last post #37655 posted on 6-8-09. Since that time I’ve celebrated my 62nd Birthday, I retired, I remarried and I bought a vacation cottage…In addition +6000 posts have been posted on this board.
So…I guess it’s time for me to post again…!!!
My personal perspective…When I first invested in Peregrine, Cotara was a candidate in Phase II, Oncolym was in early development. I anticipated that I would have reaped the benefits of a successful partnering before my retirement; I would have divested all of my investments and I would spend the rest of my life enjoying life. As a good friend of mine would like to say…”Perfecting your slice”
During this time Peregrine had a change in Management, The current management refocused our resources to the development of Bavi. Sent the Cotara trials back to Phase I with a new delivery system and added five to eight years to the reward portion of this investment.
Hmmmm…
What has happened in the world of Peregrine…???
Reverse Split…
New additions to Management…
Incentive plan approved…
All trials moving along splendidly…
What to think…What to think…
FWIW…AND IN MY HUMBLE OPINION…
I understand and share the frustration that many investors feel…Any time a human being is involved with an effort and that effort is delayed and delayed frustration develops.
So…I’ll try to make sense out of all of this…As much for myself, as it might be able to offer someone a balanced insight.
Management has stated that their goal was to complete Phase II trials because at that point the value inflection point is reached. They also stated that they were refocusing the majority of there resources to the development of Bavi. They’ve kept Cotara moving along; albeit at a slower pace.
In addition they were able to get nearly $60M of funding in support of the viral side of Bavi
I say…Score one for management
I also say that even though enrollment is complete in all three trials it will take nearly and additional year for overall survival and other data to be complete for all of the patients.
Financing…
Well we’ve been through several painful PIPE’s over the last few years and…They often occurred at the worst time…Ok I give that there is no good time for a PIPE…However there are better and worst times.
Currently we have an ATM (At The Market) agreement with Smith that will allow the company to sell up to $50,000,000.00 worth of stock as needed and when the company deems appropriate (Or Necessary).
The Science…
Moving along splendidly…
My View on Negotiations…And Poker…
No publicly held company can negotiate like they are playing poker. Your hand is laid out there on the table for everyone to see. It’s my opinion that every Pharma that is interested in Peregrines IP is well aware of the financial predicament that Peregrine is in. The additions to management and the willingness to sell $50M of shares to finance the next phase of clinical testing appears to me to be a clear signal to all that they are willing and able to go it alone. That can only be a viable negotiating position if it is real.
Ohhh…And Yes…That really can smoke the current shareholders…
Some final thoughts…
Like many here on this board, I’ve been in this stock for a long time. The approach I settled on a few years ago was to try to accumulate shares over time. Holding my nose and what ever else I deem precious and buying at the dips. In addition I try to not get too greedy and sell some when the price is up. That has allowed me to accumulate a fairly large position (Large for me that is) at a lower cost bases. I can view my cost bases two ways: free shares and the balance at a higher cost bases or my total position at a lower cost bases. I believe that this game can be played a few more times before the partnering/buy out occurs.
I presented to this board in my first post or two a risk assessment of this stock. I used various factors in the calculation that included the purely statistical success for drug candidates and in addition included subjective weighted factors:
1- Funds on hand to complete the various studies.
2- Partnering- Will they be able to bring in a partner with deep pockets in time to help the current shareholders.
3- Competence of management and staff that would allow for a timely and successful conclusion.
4- The potential for a reverse split.
5- Are there forces aligned currently on the side of – Slowing down the progress and reducing the NAV of the company? For what ever purpose.
I have yet to complete a new assessment with these updated factors; however:
1- The Statistical has improved to a 66% success factor
2- Funds on hand is about the same – neutral
3- Partnering – I assume about the same or better
4- Competence of management – I’ve upgraded them from C to B or B+
5- Reverse Split – Done with apparent minimal impact.
6- The Evil Empire Factor – No change…What ever that is…!
We may be in for another rough patch that could last from as little as 6 months to as long as 5 to 8 years. The former implies a successful partnering, the latter implies a go it along phase III
Currently I’m betting on a successful partnering deal…I like the improving odds of success….And I hope I live long enough to reap the rewards…!!!
Good luck to all
Golfho
WOW...
Now doesn't that pretty much spell out the issues...!!!
Happy Independence Day to all...
Golfho
Bravo...
You’re right Falcon. My primary goal when I joined IHUB was to put him on ignore. I got a little wrapped up with his silliness, however, after I ranted and vented I started to feel sorry for him.
The more important issue, as you point out is what is happening now behind the scene. I have no inside information but I feel strongly that; to paraphrase Ray Bradbury
“ something good this way cometh”
A quick question Fire Fox...
Are the patients receiving Bavi after the Chemo is complete?
WOW...What a difference two months make.
In early April I wrote my first post on this board. It primarily addressed the issue of determining the correct Odds for this investment/gamble, in addition it challenged eric to put some skin in the game by taking the other side of the proposition. If you remember back then, PPHM was flat lining at $.37-.38 for weeks.
Let’s review some recent history...
In your post #34980 you wrote “As for a personal "bet"? One would be a fool to risk $200 for a $1 return when one could short PPHM stock at even dollars based on the same hypothesis.”
You very clearly implied in your post that you believed that my calculated Odds were to rich for you; that means that the better bet was to go with PPHM...Hmmm...But you can’t...That would mean that your brother was right...That doesn’t work in your world...Now...Does it...?
Hmmm...
Now lets look at your shorting hypothesis...
If you shorted...
10,000 shares short @ $.37 = $3,700.00 Maximum gain (Goes to 0)
50,000 shares short @ $.37 =$18,500.00 Maximum gain (Goes to 0)
100,000 shares short @ $.37 =$37,000.00 Maximum gain (Goes to 0)
At today’s close of $.81 your current risk is...
10,000 shares @ $.81 = $8,100.00 - $3,700.00 = $4,400.00 LOSS
50,000 shares @ $.81 =$40,500.00 - $18,500.00 = $22,000.00 LOSS
100,000 shares @ $.81 =$81,000.00 - $37,000.00 = $44,000.00 LOSS
Hmmm...Potential margin call at 44K...?
LET’S FACE IT ERIC THAT WAS A BAD BET AS WELL...!!!
For the sake of mathematical correctness the pre- phase I odds should have been:
0.65 X 0.33 X 0.66 = 0.14157 ~ 14.2%
Not the value that I stated in my April post.
Copied below:
“Suggests a purely statistical success rate going forward of (3x3x2/3) = 1:12 that is one in twelve or ~ 8.33%. In other word statically Bavi has roughly a 1:12 chance of successfully completing a Phase III; from historical clinical trails"
Which would have provided a calculated Odds of 1:100 NOT 1:160 on April 2, 2009
New Odds:
With one of the three Phase II trials completed and the other two enrolling in their second half; I think we can reasonably conclude that; most likely there will NOT be a surprise negative safety issue that surfaces in the Phase II trails. So for the moment I’ll conclude that the current Phase II’s will be successfully completed.
That leaves only the historical statistical success rate for the phase III in the equation
~ 66%
From my previous post #34948
Please note the corrections:
So what we have here is a semi-scientific assessment of the investment known as PPHM.
12 Should be 14.2% ( Statistical number from #1 above)*4 Should be 25% (number assigned to partnering prospects)*5/3 Should be 60% (weighted management skills)*2 Should be 50% (Reverse split impact) yielding a potential success ratio of:
A 1 in 160 (Should be 100) chance of success.
This should have been (In my original assessment in 2004) the risk/reward ratio prior to the start of the Phase I trail.
Modified with the new statistical number yields:
66% (New Statistical number)* 25% (number assigned to partnering prospects)* 60% (weighted management skills)* 50% (Reverse split impact) yielding a potential success ratio of:
(0.66)*(0.25)*(0.60)*(0.50) = 0.0495
A nearly 1 in 20 chance of success.
This implies that this investment (At today’s price ($0.81)) should yield a price of $16.20 for it to satisfy the risk/reward ratio.
Hmmmm....
Is that doable...???
226M shares outstanding...
Today the enterprise is valued at ~183M
At $16.20 the enterprise is valued at 3.66 Billion...Half the value of one years revenue from Avastin...!!!
Geez...
Let me point out eric...In two months All of my purchases including the following are in the money:
From my order history:
7/31/2007 PPHM BOUGHT 4000 SHARES OF PPHM AT $0.74 ($21.80) $0.00 ($2,981.80)
6/29/2007 PPHM BOUGHT 4000 SHARES OF PPHM AT $0.7499 ($22.00) $0.00 ($3,021.60)
And the ones that were purchased at $.29 are WELL into the money.
FWIW I sold a portion of my holdings @ $.71...Nothing like reducing ones risk from time to time and accumulating free shares...
Here’s my view going forward...
I believe that management is negotiating in earnest a partnership. I think that the science is currently validated to a Phase II level.
As several posters have indicated...There are a lot of things happening with this enterprise...Most of it is good...
Soooo...
Eric...
I’ll take on your challenge from your post # 36981...
Reprinted below with my comments:
RE "Do you dare go on record right now, or do you wait it out? You know a PR could be in the wings today so i think you are hedging conservative, but you know as well as anybody that something big is looming."
Here's my expectations:
1. No PR before todays close, or none of any substance.
Nice waffling...But meaningless
2. Stock fails to reach $1 and the Russell is missed (again.)
Management has never stated that Russell inclusion was a goal.
3. ASCO next week will yield expected (i.e. similar) results to ones we've already seen for Bavi-cancer-Georgia.
AND...
4. No $100+ million partnership announced at or shortly after ASCO. (remember even that would be a lousy ~44 cents per share).
Here’s the meat...I’ll wager you at the “Bonus 1:20 New Odds” that Management will negotiate a partnership before 12-31-09
5. "sell the news" crew out on Monday (i.e stock drops)
Sure there was a slight dip in price...But the closing price on the day you wrote this was $.82; today’s close is $.81...!!!
Let's see how I do.......
So, do you or anyone else care to go on record to the contrary? I'll be waiting.
I HAVE gone on record...And I was right...You sir were wrong...I made money with this enterprise...You have NOT.
Show me the money.................
Otherwise this is still a nearly broke, danger of reverse split stock.
Most people understand this...Most investors have expectations that there will be a partnership...That the full potential of this technology will be realized. All you are hoping for is that your brother will fail...
How sad is that...!!!
Best of Luck to all longs...
Regards
Golfho
JGal...
When you go to bed at night do you turn on the lights and ask a neighbor to check under the bed...??? Perhaps ask him to sweep all those little e’s away...???
I’m not at all surprised with your response...very predictable:
You wrote:
“golfho, if I read the point of your very long post, it seems to be that you are putting the odds of success of PPHM stock at 1 in 200. Glad to report that we can agree there.”
NO SIR...IT WAS 1:160...
That represents a high risk investment...Not easy money...High risk...Potentially High reward.
What ever in your mine makes you think that we agree on anything...???
You have been saying for YEARS that it’s your opinion that your brother and anyone who is long PPHM would lose ALL of there money “Diluted into oblivion” That we have NO chance of making money on this stock. It appears that you are implying now that PPHM has a 1:160 chance of success.
“As for a personal "bet"? One would be a fool to risk $200 for a $1 return when one could short PPHM stock at even dollars based on the same hypothesis.”
eric...If you believed in what you were saying for all of these years there is no risk in taking the “Into oblivion scenario”. Or is it more like...Well...Gee Wiz..there might be some success...I mean...In certain circumstances...well you know...things that I don’t know about...ahhh...sure...like...could happen...maybe...!
In reference to your short comment: In my view it clearly demonstrates your complete lack of understanding of shorting and wagering. A wager is for a set amount and at specific odds. i.e. My $1.00 to your $160.00. An even money bet is a no odds bet, you can only win what you wager; shorting a stock is NOT an even money bet. You can gain only the difference from the shorted price to zero. On the down side your loss could be all of the money in your account theoretically an infinite loss. Need any more help...???
"Do you plan on holding through a reverse split"
I addressed that...Read the post again...You didn’t do such a good job the first time...!!!
"Better luck in your future investments"
Better luck...???
I wish both you and Jazz GOOD luck...And more importantly; I hope that you can get the help you so clearly need...Four years of your life trying to get validation on a message board and hoping your brother fails...Sad
No need to respond...You’ll be talking to yourself.
Golfho
Well eric…
Did you not read my posts #34948 yet?
Are you very busy as I write this; pounding feverishly on your keyboard composing a well worded well thought out response…?
You’ve posted three times since my original post.
#34938 to lafont
Text of post:
RE "I'm showing up .08 in pre-open.
Could this be Realist buying in heavily on the news?"
Wrong on both accounts as usual Lafont.
Premarket is meaningless as you once again discovered.
some of you guys don't seem to learn things even after it's been proven time and again. [Seems to me this is just a subtle personal attack…You know intended to make someone look silly]
By the way, I don't consider "patent" as news. As usual, the market agreed with me. Patent cash value = ZERO, while PPHM burns cash, you do the math.
[Patents do have value; they represent the IP that a company owns or controls. It may not have much current value but it may have tremendous value it the future]
Maybe you'd like to try and explain how SELLING $7.5 million dollars worth of stock where the daily dollar volume is about $115,000 is a good thing for moving the pps up?
[I gave you some math in my post read it and then get back to me.]
Same old same old at Peregrine.
Nope, it's not happening......
[So…I can assume by this statement that you still are of the opinion that the current shareholders will be smoked into oblivion. AGAIN YOU HAVE A GOLDEN OPPORTUNITY TO MAKE SOME MONEY ON THIS PIG. READ POST 34948 AND PICK A PROPOSITION]
#34908 to geocappy1
RE "The volume is so low that there has to be a large number of shares controlled by someone"
I disagree. My belief is that there is a very large "ride it to zero" club here. You know, retail stockholders so underwater that they have already lost most of their investments anyway, and are willing to go to zero while they hope and dream that it wont and that something great will happen in the "upcoming months", which turn into "upcoming years".
[Again this seems to me to be yet another subtle personal attack…You know intended to make current shareholders look silly. If you think every shareholder is a fool then read my post and get back to me with a response that addresses all of the posts salient points]
#34955 to sunstar
Sunstar you're dreaming again. If any of what you say is true, the stock would be moving up strongly in anticipation of great news coming - it's not.
GREAT day to be long the market - again! unless you're in PPHM.
[GOOD GRIEF MAN PREDICTING A BAD DAY @ 1:05 IN THE AFTERNOON TO ME IT LOOKS LIKE WE’RE HEADING FOR ANOTHER COAT ON PAINT]
I’ve had enough of this silliness for now, it’s 4:00 on a virtual Friday for me and I am going out to enjoy the incredible weather we are having in the NY Metro area
Good luck to all;
And eric, your assignment is to complete your homework no later than tomorrow afternoon. Get cracking…!!!
Golfho
Hi All
I posted my first post last night and apparently had my 15 minutes of fame. The post was deleted because the preamble was deemed to contain a personal attack. I’ve removed the preamble and now believe that this should fly.
During the brief time that the post was on line I received several responses, some of which were subsequently deleted as well. Of those that were left is jackdogmans #34937
“I believe your statistical analysis is incorrect given we have already passed phase I and one could argue we are looking good for phase II. If bavi were starting out today, the analysis would apply”
The analysis was a first time swing at bat and I agree that it can be refined. The primary purpose was to establish a proper handicap for the proposition I made to eric. I would like him to back up his years of droning with ANY rational and then to have some skin in this. The point is if he believes that there is no hope for the current shareholders then any odds would be acceptable i.e. 1:1000, 1:10000 etc. If he believes there is some hope then what is it? Is it my semi-scientific 1:160? Another number? Higher? Lower?
So eric please read and respond…
The expurgated version follows…
Assessing the risk/reward ratio for this investment:
Most drug candidates fail to make it through the FDA approval process.
I believe that the number is one out of 800. Implied is that; the success of any drug compound is roughly 1 in 800. Bavi is currently in three small phase II studies as a combo and is in one Phase I as a mono. From the attached hyperlink we can draw some statistics:
http://www.dana.org/news/cerebrum/detail.aspx?id=5486
“Success in Phase I is not guaranteed; overall, 35 percent of candidate drugs fail here for one reason or another.”
“And only about a third of the new molecules entering Phase II can progress to Phase III.”
“Just under two-thirds of the molecules entering Phase III will be developed further.”
So...
1:3 (Failures in Phase I)
1:3 (Failures in Phase II)
2:3 (Failures in Phase III)
Suggests a purely statistical success rate going forward of (3x3x2/3) = 1:12 that is one in twelve or ~ 8.33%. In other word statically Bavi has roughly a 1:12 chance of successfully completing a Phase III; from historical clinical trial data.
Now we must factor in some of the indeterminate factors, indeterminate in that assigning a success ratio is somewhat subjective and they include:
1- Funds on hand to complete the various studies.
2- Partnering- Will they be able to bring in a partner with deep pockets in time to help the current shareholders.
3- Competence of management and staff that would allow for a timely and successful conclusion.
4- The potential for a reverse split.
5- Are there forces aligned currently on the side of – Slowing down the progress and reducing the NAV of the company? For what ever purpose.
So let’s see what we have here...
1- Funds on hand to complete the various studies.
2- Potential partnering
From this article we get: http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/02_37/b3799028.htm
“The average cost of researching, developing, and testing drugs that receive FDA approval is astonishing: $800 million per drug.”
That seems a wee bit high and Bavi is in Phase I and II. I can’t say for sure but I think that PPHM can, with the influx from the loan money and the Wm Smith & Co. stock purchase complete the Phase II studies on their own. IF they chose to go it alone a Phase II/III study may cost 100-150 Million (If anyone would like to refine these numbers – Have at It...!) The point is that if PPHM tries to go it alone it would definitely destroy current shareholders. Though R&R may be licking their lips at that prospect. That now brings us to the partnering possibilities. Management has been telling us that they are in talks and of course eric has been telling us that they have been in talks for years. So what kind of factor can we assign to “A Partner Deal”? 1:1, 1:2, 1:3 as eric implied 1: infinity. I consider a one in four prospect a reasonable number; however please note it is only a SWAG.
Now I will address number three above:
3- Competence of management and staff that would allow for a timely and successful conclusion.
There has been a great deal of discussion on this board about the quality of the management of this company; Views that include “they really suck”, “Their interests are not aligned with the shareholder”, “They have no integrity”, and of course there’s eric’s “They have never achieved anything of significants other than lining their pockets“. etc. So I will arbitrarily assign to them school grades A to F. and select C as a grade. If you are trying this at home and feel adventurous you can select any value you think appropriate or use a different grading system all together.
So now let’s talk about the potential for a reverse split…
On the one hand we have the opinion (eric, CW and company) that this management team is totally incapable of completing any kind of meaningful deal and that the RS will be a continuation of the death spiral financing that will turn the current shareholders assets into dust. On the other hand we have management’s statement (Paraphrasing here) that under certain conditions the company would consider addressing the number of outstanding shares issued. I view this as follows…IF (Still a big IF) management successfully competes a significant licensing or partnership deal with a reasonable amount of upfront money and milestone payments then the market cap. of this company would increase from its current ~$86M. Under those circumstances a reverse split would have little or no effect on the market cap. I believe that a reverse split will occur for several reasons. However I have no idea or knowledge of the circumstance under which this might occur. I will arbitrarily assign a 50% - 50% effect on that occurrence. Meaning that; I think that it most likely will occur but that it may not necessarily be a bad thing.
Now for the last item on the list:
5- Are there forces aligned currently on the side of – Slowing down the progress and reducing the NAV of the company?
I have no way of determining this with any kind of certitude. However in my mind there is sufficient anecdotal evidence that suggest that some entity is working hard to create disinterest and doubt. So I will not assign any factor to this now.
So what we have here is a semi-scientific assessment of the investment known as PPHM.
12(Statistical number from #1 above)*4(number assigned to partnering prospects)*5/3(weighted management skills)*2(Reverse split impact) yielding a potential success ratio of:
A 1 in 160 chance of success.
So…Now back to you eric…
Any fool can plainly see that taking the “It’s a loser” position has a very good (159 in 160 chances) chance of winning a bet. That in fact is true about most biotech companies. Picking losers is easy picking winners is far more difficult. So please…Don’t think that you’re so smart…Anyone can throw a dart at a poster containing all of the names of biotech companies in existence today and; hit a loser. It’s picking the few winners that is difficult.
I’m feeling magnanimous today…
I will give you an opportunity to make some of your money back that YOU lost on this loser stock.
I purchased this stock at the following times and prices:
Date Symbol Description Commission/Fees Interest Amount
3/3/2009 PPHM BOUGHT 5000 SHARES OF PPHM AT $0.31 ($14.75) $0.00 ($1,564.75)
2/19/2009 PPHM BOUGHT 10000 SHARES OF PPHM AT $0.415 ($27.75) $0.00 ($4,177.75)
1/16/2009 PPHM BOUGHT 5000 SHARES OF PPHM AT $0.3899 ($16.75) $0.00 ($1,966.25)
12/24/2008 PPHM BOUGHT 200 SHARES OF PPHM AT $0.2899 ($0.29) $0.00 ($58.27)
12/24/2008 PPHM BOUGHT 100 SHARES OF PPHM AT $0.2899 ($0.14) $0.00 ($29.13)
12/24/2008 PPHM BOUGHT 100 SHARES OF PPHM AT $0.2898 ($7.14) $0.00 ($36.12)
12/24/2008 PPHM BOUGHT 100 SHARES OF PPHM AT $0.2899 ($0.15) $0.00 ($29.14)
12/24/2008 PPHM BOUGHT 100 SHARES OF PPHM AT $0.2899 ($0.15) $0.00 ($29.14)
12/24/2008 PPHM BOUGHT 6900 SHARES OF PPHM AT $0.292 ($10.07) $0.00 ($2,024.87)
12/24/2008 PPHM BOUGHT 300 SHARES OF PPHM AT $0.292 ($0.44) $0.00 ($88.04)
12/24/2008 PPHM BOUGHT 2200 SHARES OF PPHM AT $0.292 ($3.21) $0.00 ($645.61)
11/26/2008 PPHM BOUGHT 10000 SHARES OF PPHM AT $0.29 ($21.50) $0.00 ($2,921.50)
12/26/2007 PPHM BOUGHT 10000 SHARES OF PPHM AT $0.38 ($26.00) $0.00 ($3,826.00)
7/31/2007 PPHM BOUGHT 4000 SHARES OF PPHM AT $0.74 ($21.80) $0.00 ($2,981.80)
6/29/2007 PPHM BOUGHT 4000 SHARES OF PPHM AT $0.7499 ($22.00) $0.00 ($3,021.60
I FULLY EXPECT TO BE IN THE MONEY BY 12/31/09.
I will make you the following proposition:
I will wager you up to $200.00 at the above calculated risk assessment ratio that I will be in the money on ALL of my purchases by the end of the year 12/31/09.
That means…In the likelihood that you might be math challenged…
My $1.00 against your $160.00
My $10.00 against your $1600.00
My $100.00 against your $16,000.00
My $200.00 against your $32,000.00
Now $200.00 may not make up for all of your loses but according what you have posted over that last few years this is a no-brainer…You can’t pass up…Easy money.
However I must say…Not that I doubt you integrity…Or anything like that…But…If you choose a wager greater than My $10.00 I would require a certified check deposited in escrow (I would accept a certified check sent to your brother and I would most likely hand him my money personally. I live only 20 minutes from the city and someday I would like to meet him. This would be as good a reason as any.)
I will now don my Karnack Turban and gaze into the stars…And predict the future…
eric will respond with some disconnected gibberish and then I will put eric on ignore…
P.S. to the moderators…Why do you allow him to continue to post? Do you really think he provides the “Opposing View”? A sense of balance to the board? Please do all of us a favor…Ban him…I will assume the heavy burden of playing the devil’s advocate.
On a different subject…JGAL555 said:
“Many people have suggested share prices which they would like to see, but I haven't seen much discussion re realistic and attainable market caps. We have our thoughts, but I thought it might be interesting to get a little discussion going on this issue.”
There was not a large response to that…I think because you did not provide any info on your thoughts…Soooooo…
If you show me yours…
I’ll show you mine…
Wink…Wink…
Ok…I’m done…
I thank everyone on this board for their contributions over the years and I thank anyone that is still reading this for your abundant patience…KT…I think I beat you with the longest post posted…
I’m going to soak my throbbing index fingers in ice water…
Golfho