WELL…
It’s been five months since my last post #37655 posted on 6-8-09. Since that time I’ve celebrated my 62nd Birthday, I retired, I remarried and I bought a vacation cottage…In addition +6000 posts have been posted on this board.
So…I guess it’s time for me to post again…!!!
My personal perspective…When I first invested in Peregrine, Cotara was a candidate in Phase II, Oncolym was in early development. I anticipated that I would have reaped the benefits of a successful partnering before my retirement; I would have divested all of my investments and I would spend the rest of my life enjoying life. As a good friend of mine would like to say…”Perfecting your slice”
During this time Peregrine had a change in Management, The current management refocused our resources to the development of Bavi. Sent the Cotara trials back to Phase I with a new delivery system and added five to eight years to the reward portion of this investment.
Hmmmm…
What has happened in the world of Peregrine…???
Reverse Split…
New additions to Management…
Incentive plan approved…
All trials moving along splendidly…
What to think…What to think…
FWIW…AND IN MY HUMBLE OPINION…
I understand and share the frustration that many investors feel…Any time a human being is involved with an effort and that effort is delayed and delayed frustration develops.
So…I’ll try to make sense out of all of this…As much for myself, as it might be able to offer someone a balanced insight.
Management has stated that their goal was to complete Phase II trials because at that point the value inflection point is reached. They also stated that they were refocusing the majority of there resources to the development of Bavi. They’ve kept Cotara moving along; albeit at a slower pace.
In addition they were able to get nearly $60M of funding in support of the viral side of Bavi
I say…Score one for management
I also say that even though enrollment is complete in all three trials it will take nearly and additional year for overall survival and other data to be complete for all of the patients.
Financing…
Well we’ve been through several painful PIPE’s over the last few years and…They often occurred at the worst time…Ok I give that there is no good time for a PIPE…However there are better and worst times.
Currently we have an ATM (At The Market) agreement with Smith that will allow the company to sell up to $50,000,000.00 worth of stock as needed and when the company deems appropriate (Or Necessary).
The Science…
Moving along splendidly…
My View on Negotiations…And Poker…
No publicly held company can negotiate like they are playing poker. Your hand is laid out there on the table for everyone to see. It’s my opinion that every Pharma that is interested in Peregrines IP is well aware of the financial predicament that Peregrine is in. The additions to management and the willingness to sell $50M of shares to finance the next phase of clinical testing appears to me to be a clear signal to all that they are willing and able to go it alone. That can only be a viable negotiating position if it is real.
Ohhh…And Yes…That really can smoke the current shareholders…
Some final thoughts…
Like many here on this board, I’ve been in this stock for a long time. The approach I settled on a few years ago was to try to accumulate shares over time. Holding my nose and what ever else I deem precious and buying at the dips. In addition I try to not get too greedy and sell some when the price is up. That has allowed me to accumulate a fairly large position (Large for me that is) at a lower cost bases. I can view my cost bases two ways: free shares and the balance at a higher cost bases or my total position at a lower cost bases. I believe that this game can be played a few more times before the partnering/buy out occurs.
I presented to this board in my first post or two a risk assessment of this stock. I used various factors in the calculation that included the purely statistical success for drug candidates and in addition included subjective weighted factors:
1- Funds on hand to complete the various studies.
2- Partnering- Will they be able to bring in a partner with deep pockets in time to help the current shareholders.
3- Competence of management and staff that would allow for a timely and successful conclusion.
4- The potential for a reverse split.
5- Are there forces aligned currently on the side of – Slowing down the progress and reducing the NAV of the company? For what ever purpose.
I have yet to complete a new assessment with these updated factors; however:
1- The Statistical has improved to a 66% success factor
2- Funds on hand is about the same – neutral
3- Partnering – I assume about the same or better
4- Competence of management – I’ve upgraded them from C to B or B+
5- Reverse Split – Done with apparent minimal impact.
6- The Evil Empire Factor – No change…What ever that is…!
We may be in for another rough patch that could last from as little as 6 months to as long as 5 to 8 years. The former implies a successful partnering, the latter implies a go it along phase III
Currently I’m betting on a successful partnering deal…I like the improving odds of success….And I hope I live long enough to reap the rewards…!!!
Good luck to all
Golfho
