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UGAZ- Buying and holding strong at these low levels.
World record debt of $199trn could drag economies into another crisis - study
Edited time: February 08, 2015 08:08
Reuters/Yves Herman
Global debt has soared by $57 trillion since the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2007, with the debt to GDP ratio jumping to above 500 percent in Japan. This raises questions about financial stability and poses a threat of another crisis.
“After the 2008 financial crisis and the longest and deepest global recession since World War II, it was widely expected that the world’s economies would deleverage. It has not happened. Instead, debt continues to grow in nearly all countries, in both absolute terms and relative to GDP. This creates fresh risks in some countries and limits growth prospects in many,” according to new research carried out by consultants McKinsey in 47 countries.
The amount of world debt reached $199 trillion at the end of 2014, with the growth rate exceeding the pace of global economic expansion and the debt to GDP ratio increased from 269 to 286 percent.
“Higher levels of debt pose questions about financial stability and whether some countries face the risk of a crisis.”
Source: Debt and (not much) deleveraging, McKinsey Global InstituteSource: Debt and (not much) deleveraging, McKinsey Global Institute
“We conclude that, absent additional steps and new approaches, business leaders should expect that debt will be a drag on GDP growth and continue to create volatility and fragility in financial markets,”the McKinsey report says.
Deleveraging remains limited to a handful of sectors in some countries. The only countries that managed to cut their debt were Argentina, Romania, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Israel.
Geographically, Ireland was the country where the debt to GDP ratio saw a record increase – of 172 percent. The ratio in Japan added 64 percent and remains the world’s highest at 400 percent. In Russia, the debt to GDP ratio saw a moderate growth by 19 percent, remaining relatively low at 65 percent.
Source: Debt and (not much) deleveraging, McKinsey Global InstituteSource: Debt and (not much) deleveraging, McKinsey Global Institute
China is one of the key concerns as debt there has skyrocketed almost quadrupling, from $7.4 trillion in 2007 to $28.2 trillion in mid-2014. The debt-to-GDP ratio reached 282 percent comparing to 269 percent of the US. Although total Chinese debt is still manageable, experts are concerned with worrisome levels of debt in the property sector and the rapid expansion of shadow banking.
“China’s total debt, as a percentage of GDP, now exceeds that of the United States.”
Falling debt in the financial sector and a retreat in many of the riskiest forms of shadow banking are the only bright spots in the report. But the overall global debt burden “has reached new levels despite the pain of the financial crisis,” the report said.
Households across the world have also significantly increased their debt, with their debt relative to income having decreased in only five advanced economies - the United States, Ireland, the United Kingdom, Spain, and Germany. In such developed countries as Australia, Canada, Denmark, Sweden and the Netherlands, as well as Malaysia, South Korea and Thailand, the debt exceeds the pre-crisis level.
To avoid another crisis, the governments might take recourse to new ways of reducing the national debt such as larger sales of assets, non-recurrent wealth taxes and more effective programs of debt restructuring, the report said.
World record debt of $199trn could drag economies into another crisis - study
Edited time: February 08, 2015 08:08
Reuters/Yves Herman
Global debt has soared by $57 trillion since the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2007, with the debt to GDP ratio jumping to above 500 percent in Japan. This raises questions about financial stability and poses a threat of another crisis.
“After the 2008 financial crisis and the longest and deepest global recession since World War II, it was widely expected that the world’s economies would deleverage. It has not happened. Instead, debt continues to grow in nearly all countries, in both absolute terms and relative to GDP. This creates fresh risks in some countries and limits growth prospects in many,” according to new research carried out by consultants McKinsey in 47 countries.
The amount of world debt reached $199 trillion at the end of 2014, with the growth rate exceeding the pace of global economic expansion and the debt to GDP ratio increased from 269 to 286 percent.
“Higher levels of debt pose questions about financial stability and whether some countries face the risk of a crisis.”
Source: Debt and (not much) deleveraging, McKinsey Global InstituteSource: Debt and (not much) deleveraging, McKinsey Global Institute
“We conclude that, absent additional steps and new approaches, business leaders should expect that debt will be a drag on GDP growth and continue to create volatility and fragility in financial markets,”the McKinsey report says.
Deleveraging remains limited to a handful of sectors in some countries. The only countries that managed to cut their debt were Argentina, Romania, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Israel.
Geographically, Ireland was the country where the debt to GDP ratio saw a record increase – of 172 percent. The ratio in Japan added 64 percent and remains the world’s highest at 400 percent. In Russia, the debt to GDP ratio saw a moderate growth by 19 percent, remaining relatively low at 65 percent.
Source: Debt and (not much) deleveraging, McKinsey Global InstituteSource: Debt and (not much) deleveraging, McKinsey Global Institute
China is one of the key concerns as debt there has skyrocketed almost quadrupling, from $7.4 trillion in 2007 to $28.2 trillion in mid-2014. The debt-to-GDP ratio reached 282 percent comparing to 269 percent of the US. Although total Chinese debt is still manageable, experts are concerned with worrisome levels of debt in the property sector and the rapid expansion of shadow banking.
“China’s total debt, as a percentage of GDP, now exceeds that of the United States.”
Falling debt in the financial sector and a retreat in many of the riskiest forms of shadow banking are the only bright spots in the report. But the overall global debt burden “has reached new levels despite the pain of the financial crisis,” the report said.
Households across the world have also significantly increased their debt, with their debt relative to income having decreased in only five advanced economies - the United States, Ireland, the United Kingdom, Spain, and Germany. In such developed countries as Australia, Canada, Denmark, Sweden and the Netherlands, as well as Malaysia, South Korea and Thailand, the debt exceeds the pre-crisis level.
To avoid another crisis, the governments might take recourse to new ways of reducing the national debt such as larger sales of assets, non-recurrent wealth taxes and more effective programs of debt restructuring, the report said.
Do you own this mega popular popular fund?
http://money.cnn.com/2015/02/09/investing/spy-sp-500-etf-investing-popular/index.html
This article tells me it's now probably time to sell or stay away from this "mega popular fund" SPY...lol
imo
Haha, I'm out for the rest of the day. Let's hope for a strong finish today.
But before I go a word from Alan Greenspan...
Have a good one all;)
Alan Greenspan: The euro is doomed
Alan Greenspan has harsh words for Greece: hit the road jack.
The former Federal Reserve Chairman told the BBC that Greece's best course of action is to leave the Eurozone. But Greenspan didn't stop there. He predicts Greece's exit is the beginning of the end for the euro.
"Short of a political union, I find it very difficult to foresee the euro holding together in its current form," Greenspan told the BBC's Mark Mardell on Sunday.
Greenspan went as far as to say the world would be better off without the euro. He says the currency union is too complex unless Europe decides to have one unified governing body to call all the shots.
Greece is a good example of the uneasy strain of the currency union. The country is mired in debt that it can't figure out how to pay back. The Greek people are so fed up with all the cutback measures imposed by Eurozone leaders that they recently elected a new prime minister, Alex Tsipras, who campaigned on a platform of fighting back.
Greece stocks tank as standoff intensifies
"I don't see it being resolved without Greece leaving the Eurozone," Greenspan said. "It's just a matter of time before everyone recognizes that parting is the best strategy."
Tspiras and European leaders are in ongoing talks about Greece's bailout for the rest of 2015. There's not a lot of optimism about a good solution. Greece's stock market is tanking again and dragging down much of Europe with it.
More headwinds for the euro: Greenspan never liked the idea of the euro to begin with. When European leaders were negotiating the Euro in the mid-1990s, the desire for unity after two World Wars masked the difficulty of an economic tie, he says.
"Fundamentally, what clearly was a driving force was the fact that we had two World Wars," says Greenspan. The Euro, "was a geopolitical decision with economic wrappings."
How Greece could accidentally stumble out of the euro
When asked if it would be a catastrophe for the global economy if the euro broke up, Greenspan said no.
"I think the system would function. Holding the system together is putting strains on everybody," he predicted.
NADL +24%
link back;)
Damn, looks like I spoke too soon.lol
3.09 now:(
UGAZ- OK that's it... I'm sending out a WAKE UP CALL!!
Time to rise and shine;)
UGAZ
IVAN +40% what a beast today! flirting with the 50dma now...
NADL @ 2.20 +19% Weeeeeeeeeeeeee
LOD @ 3.10, great call so far:)
OIL/GAS stocks on FIRE!! MILL-NADL-IVAN-AMZG-UWTI-LEI-BPZ- just to name a few
NADL- I have a $3.00 PPS target(short-mid term)
NADL in full breakout mode now!!
AMZG- Yes it can move quickly.. low floater with huge upside potential...IMO
UWTI- Yes I did but I sold out of it on Friday. I moved it into UGAZ for now because I think NG will soon play catch up with oil prices rising...
IMO
RGSE- yes it's looking much better today. this one is only a short matter of time before we see it go KABOOOOOM!!
imo
JNUG- looks like Friday's big dip was a good opportunity to jump in, d'oh!
JNUG holding the 10dma line on the weekly very nicely here...
UWTI- up 70% now from last month lows
BPZ +20%
MILL +7%
AMZG +8%
IVAN +25%
NADL @ $2.00 +8%
Short-mid term Target $3.00
NADL @ $2.00 +8%
I hope Orions have been banking some $$$$ from beaten down oil plays!
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=108917332&txt2find=sdrl
Ya it sure does look good right now... TVIX-UWTI-UGAZ-RUSL-NUGT- All gaping up this morning...
U.S. Stock Futures-Pre-Market Trading-
Data as of 7:06am ET
S&P -12.25 / -0.60%
Nasdaq -24.25 / -0.57%
Dow -98.00 / -0.55%
Credit Suisse- Velocitysh (TVIX) Pre-Market Last Trade: $ 3.15 + 0.09 (2.94%)
TVIX- Stock futures are currently pointing down. I'm expecting markets to continue heading south in the short term and a big week ahead for TVIX...IMO
Data as of 9:13pm ET
S&P -10.00 / -0.49%
Nasdaq -16.75 / -0.40%
Dow -74.00 / -0.42%
BULLISH ASCENDING TRIANGLE CHART PATTERN!!!
Next dip could take the $INDU down below 17K(descending triangle)
UGAZ & TVIX- Natural Gas up @ 2.65 and stock futures are currently pointing down. Watch for them to gap up tomorrow morning...IMO
Data as of 9:13pm ET
S&P -10.00 / -0.49%
Nasdaq -16.75 / -0.40%
Dow -74.00 / -0.42%
http://www.investing.com/commodities/natural-gas-streaming-chart
U.S. Stock Futures
UGAZ- Natural Gas at 2.65 now, watch for a gap up tomorrow morning...
http://www.investing.com/commodities/natural-gas-streaming-chart
Goodbye GoodFellas!!
Thanks for everything
In these markets expect the unexpected and do the opposite of what majority is thinking and you'll do just fine
Let's see what happens this week...
BOL