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What is your take on the monthly Spy? Seems like price has been above upper BB most of the month. How long can it run this hot? I was thinking some sort of pull-back, but no one seems to be selling.
Thanks.
Merry Christmas Jerry. I don't post much, but I read you every day. Thank you for all that you share.
Thanks. We've been safe since March. Loaded up on supplies and extra. In March we loaded up on being able to treat pneumonia from home, if it comes to that with hospitals filling up.
Nothing really changes on our end. We've only ordered delivery, or food to-go. Our house is already used to it.
Best to all.
If there was such a high level of sophisticated conspiracy, why didn't the Dem's also win convincingly in the House & Senate? lol
Saying that a software exists is not proof that any fraud happened.
If you think Biden, the most moderate candidate out there is so radical...you crazy. lol
That guy is nuts. I don't listen to him. I hope that people realize he's just entertainment, and don't actually believe him. But, people are dumb. I don't mean that as a cut-down. I read before that the median IQ is something around 100, which isn't that great. So there is a large segment of people below that threshold.
People around here are a headache. It started earlier this year with the shutdown. There was such an uproar, just so people could go to Chili's. They didn't care much about the safety of the employees, or other patrons. It's like they just want to be waited on.
Then came the push to wear masks. People are a-holes about it. They take it as a threat and say it's an attack against their liberty. I've read reports of people pulling guns on businesses when they were told to put on a mask or leave the store. I will say, most people are finally wearing them, too bad it took 6 months into the pandemic.
My buddy is a sales rep, told me that he's visited clients in rural areas and gets shunned walking into a store wearing a mask.
Is empathy our greatest weakness as a country?
My honest opinion...Trump supporters have had 4 years of feeling like they can do and say whatever they want without any consequence. By now they feel embolden for even juvenile, or asinine behavior.
The state is changing, slowly. There's not any state income tax, so a ton of people are moving here. Alot of businesses from California. GOP won in 2012 by 16%, won in 2016 by 9%, won in 2020 by 6%.
Completely understand, I always appreciate your posts. :)
I read something a while back regarding Dem's in Texas, that the Dem vote grows by about 1.5% every election. If that happened again in 2020, then the blue wave would be possible in Tx.
With that in mind, I found the below line from that analytics company on the link pretty interesting:
Interesting article from the same company that provided the data on the link your shared regarding Texas.
https://insights.targetsmart.com/insights-50-million-votes-in-how-to-interpret-tx-turnout.html
See if big H holds up overnight. So far it appears to be.
Looks like maintaining value area for 3rd day today so far.
I live in Texas, Gov here limited the number of drop off locations for mail-in ballots to 1 per county. A county in TX is 268k sq miles.
A couple of the polling locations in the town where I live have poll workers refusing to wear masks, making others uncomfortable. Many are viewing this as intimidation.
My parents and in-laws were life-long Republicans. This election, they are all voting Dem as a referendum on Trump as well as the entire GOP that has allowed the party to become what it has.
Reading possibility that Mcconnell doesn't want another stimulus bill on his watch, since he already allowed 1. That perhaps he doesn't want to double the deficit that has already occurred under his watch. The thinking is if Dems regain the Senate, it will be done so under them, then could be used against them in 2022 & 2024. Just politics.
Is Trump having an on air doctors exam this weekend? *wildcard.
will Big H hold up? In value area, bounced at VAL. Ticks got above zero.
Looking like we might have an excess high now.
Looks like all ticks above zero, put ratio super low.
triple top on the Spy 1 minute
Looks like bumping head on SPY 20 MA
U.S. private payrolls miss expectations in June - ADP
https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-economy-jobs/us-private-payrolls-miss-expectations-in-june-adp-idUSL1N2E7225
Market News
July 1, 2020 / 7:23 AM / Updated an hour ago
U.S. private payrolls miss expectations in June - ADP
3 Min Read
WASHINGTON, July 1 (Reuters) - U.S. private payrolls increased less than expected in June and gains are likely to curbed by a surge in COVID-19 infections, which is threatening the nascent recovery from the recession.
The ADP National Employment Report on Wednesday showed private payrolls increased by 2.369 million jobs last month. Data for May was revised up to show payrolls surging 3.065 million, in line with a surprise rebound in job growth reported by the government, instead of dropping 2.76 million as previously estimated.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast private payrolls increasing by 3.0 million in June.
The economy slipped into recession in February. The reopening of many businesses after being shuttered in mid-March to slow the spread of the respiratory illness has lifted consumer spending and manufacturing after record declines.
Consumer confidence has perked up and the housing market is improving. But the resumption of operations has been accompanied by a surge in coronavirus cases across large parts of the country, including the densely populated California, Florida and Texas. This has prompted authorities to scale back or pause reopenings, which could unleash a new wave of layoffs.
The ADP report, jointly developed with Moody’s Analytics, was published ahead of the government’s more comprehensive employment report for June scheduled for release on Thursday. U.S. financial markets and the government will be closed on Friday in observance of Saturday’s Independence Day holiday.
The ADP report has a poor track record forecasting the private payrolls component of the government’s employment report because of methodology differences. It failed to predict the rebound in job growth in May. The government nonfarm payrolls count is compiled from a survey of businesses while the ADP figures are derived from ADP payroll data and other inputs.
According to a Reuters survey of economists, the employment report will likely show private employers hired 2.9 million workers in June. That would lead to nonfarm payrolls increasing by 3 million on top of the 2.5 million created in May.
Still, payrolls would be nearly 17 million below their pre-pandemic level. The jobless rate is forecast dipping to 12.3% from 13.3% in May. (Reporting by Lucia Mutikani Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)
I live in Texas (DFW), so many people do not wear masks. They don't want to be told to wear one. I've heard reasons such as: that the virus is fake, that wearing a mask is fear, masks harm and don't help, etc.
So many have been going out shopping, to bars and restaurants this past month, no mask, not social distancing. Those that have not have been staying at home and wearing a mask if they do need to get out. Local restaurants just started shutting down this week because employees are testing positive. Hearing hospitals are filling up all over.
Disappointing that defiance of wearing a mask is a political statement. Such ignorance, imho.
Gov Abbot wanted to be one of the first to re-open the state, before seeing the recommended 14 days of decline.
Not trading related, so feel free to delete if needed.
This is looking opposite of yesterday. Started low and zoomed to VAH, then churned before a pullback. Today started high then zoomed to VAL. Churning below VAL.
Closing long in the hole has a tendency to get burned at the next open...that's my small put bet.
Premium suck is ridiculous. Price is $3-4 higher from when I bought a call earlier, but is trading $0.05 lower.
My day job is sending anyone who can work at home to do so. Dallas is closing down restaurants, bars, etc. A lot of people will not have income. I feel bad for those people. Not certain what will happen.
Schools are closed, I bet for the remainder of the spring. We'll be going back to homeschooling out little ones. Its all good, we homeschooled until this past fall anyway, so we now what to expect.
This happened to me a couple weeks back. SPY popped $3.00, I bought my call at $0.59 and sold at market with a bid price around $1.30. For a few split seconds, they dropped the bids to $.49, but the price never dropped, as a matter of fact, price climbed another $2.00. So, I bought at $.59, 10 minutes later sold with Spy price $3.00 higher...which I found out executed at $0.49...I ended up losing money.
When I called to complain, Etrade credited me back $3.00 in trade fees. lol
Getting close to 7% down premarket.
Big h coming on Spy. Looks like low is $270.27. Wondering if it will hold.
If I recall correctly, market had a green day last Wednesday. The headlines touted were Bidens wins for Super Tuesday. Not that it was the exact reason for the up day, those were just the headlines given. With that, another election day today.
Also, it seems each market open was opposite of the previous close for the last few days.
Looks like ticks bounced at zero, correlates to bounce off value area high.
I've also noticed when price has been in a specific fork and it leaves it, there's usually an attempt to get back into that fork. It looks like that's happening now. Premarket price went above down fork and looks to be trying to re-enter. Just my observations.
I noticed the premium was being sucked on my puts earlier big time. I was starting to doubt I would make a profit.
Bouncing off value area low 5 min before open.
Do you see a new downward fork? I drew a quick one just to see, looks like premarket price is hovering at fork middle.
I bought a call before price could get to VAH, sold on that massive pop. Etrade screwed me, they show my order as a loss. How is that possible after Spy jumped $5.00???
Looks like pretty big top tail on that 1 hour...
Thought so, quick punishment at open after long in the hole close yesterday. I've seen this pattern quite a bit lately.
Looks like hit fork top and pulled back. Looking for fork middle?
VAH also looks close to fork middle. Perhaps a good entry point?
watching this close, thinking long in the hole...it seems market likes to punish scenarios such as this at the next open.
That level also looks close to the value area high mark that I have. I am eyeing that level as well.
Looks like that last pop up probably hit close to your fork middle.
I was wondering if it might turn...that put ratio was very high all morning.
1 milly on the bid now.
XALL