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Low of what?
: )
hey
I forgot about this board. I wonder what else I've forgotten.
What if it's something important.
Something drastic?
Oh dear.
well I'm back.
: )
It is reassuring to see that you have a wonderful life going manana! Enjoy!
: )
Ok I'll watch it and try to get it.
hands manana a towel and a pen..... anything else dearie?
I'll stare at the hui chart for my next entry spot.
You think we're going up in the general market for any extended period? I am pretty skeptical of that myself.
"Any citizenry that maintains a 72% approval rating of George W. Bush has a tenuous grasp on reality"
Keilor
naw, I sold, much appreciated dearie, just lookin for where you said you'd get interested again. So what are you doing this fall? Hope ya have fun!
: )
Manana, my mentor said the following re gold calls here: a general rally from this oversold area and a concurrent selloff in precious metals is right on. Pardon my poor memory but did he/you/anybody have either duration and/or extent of these moves?
I'm now kicking myself for not unloading more PMs but at least I did blow off the KGC which was about the biggest position. Rebuy at 1.79, was it? Or, do you do this scaling in from there? Not that I like KGC all that much but it does have leverage with that low price. GFI and HGMCY are much better fundamentally but for the politics in SA. And, I'm wondering if todays announcements by ABX aren't a fakeout to eliminate weak holders to provide shares for the major players. After all, ABX is the best managed and operated gold outside SA. They have reserves, money, experience, etc to be in the forefront of a serious gold bull move, although perhaps not percentagewise.
The DUK boys scrambling for money. I'm seriously disappointed that they're selling over 50million shares at 18.35. Really a poke in the eye to existing shareholders. But, maybe the exigencies of their balance sheet are worse than they have been telling the world. I'm guessing that if there aren't more skeletons falling out of their closet the 18.35 is potentially a major base. I'm thinking of selling the 17.50 put if there's any premium.
Into the fray!
From Dow theory letters
CONCLUSION -- An up-day is an up-day, and this rally "should" carry further just based on the extreme oversold condition of the market.
And remember, Monday is the end of the month and also the end of the quarter, so the funds are going to do as much "window dressing" as possible as they wind up a dreadful month and a God-awful quarter. I told you yesterday in view of the extreme oversold condition of the market to be very careful. I hope you were. What, you were short the market? Don't tell me about it, you shouldn't have been.
I'd be surprised if this rally doesn't carry further.
I guess that's all for today.
Your faithful servant,
Russell
incog, I think you are on to it. Therefore tax laws with regard to trading would be of keenest interest.
: )
Symbol Name Trend Signal RS vs
SPX Comps BP
CKG AMEX S&P 600 Barra Growth Index Neg 07/02/2002 Sell Buy X 0 0.000
CVK AMEX S&P 600 Barra Value Index Neg 07/15/2002 Sell Buy O 0 0.000
DJGT Dow Jones Global Titans Index Neg 04/26/2002 Sell Sell O 36 14.290
DJIA Dow Jones Pos 08/22/2002 Sell None 30 20.000
DJX The Dow Jones Industrial Avg. Index Opt. Neg 09/17/2001 Sell Buy X 30 20.000
DWALCG Dorsey Wright Large Cap Growth Index Neg 06/11/2002 Buy Buy X 30 30.000
DWALCV Dorsey Wright Large Cap Value Index Neg 09/17/2001 Sell Buy X 30 10.000
DWASCG Dorsey Wright Small Cap Growth Index Neg 06/25/2002 Sell Buy O 30 40.000
DWASCV Dorsey Wright Small Cap Value Index Neg 07/19/2002 Sell Buy O 44 20.450
EMW The Wilshire 4500 Completion Index Neg 06/04/2002 Sell Buy X 0 0.000
MGD AMEX S&P 400 Barra Growth Index Pos 08/22/2002 Sell Buy X 0 0.000
MID S&P 400 Midcap Index Neg 06/04/2002 Sell Buy X 400 32.830
MLN Nikkei 225 Market Index Target-Term Sec Neg 05/22/2000 None None X 1 0.000
MUV AMEX S&P 400 Barra Value Index Neg 07/11/2002 Sell Buy X 0 0.000
NASD Nasdaq Composite Neg 09/22/2000 Sell Sell O 1 0.000
NDX NASDAQ Non Financial Index Neg 02/09/2001 Sell Sell O 100 21.210
NHB The New York Stock Exchange Beta Index Pos 08/22/2002 Sell Buy X 0 0.000
NYA New York Composite Neg 06/03/2002 Sell Buy X 1 0.000
NYSEUS1 NYSE U.S. 100 Index Neg 07/10/2002 Sell None O 0 0.000
OEX S & P 100 Index Neg 04/25/2002 Sell Buy O 100 25.000
RDG Russell Midcap Growth IX Neg 05/07/2002 Sell None X 0 0.000
RLG Russell 1000 Growth Index Neg 04/24/2002 Sell Sell O 0 0.000
RLV Russell 1000 Value Index Neg 06/06/2002 Sell Buy X 0 0.000
RMC Russell Midcap Index Neg 06/03/2002 Sell Buy X 0 0.000
RMV Russell Midcap Value IX Neg 06/14/2002 Sell Buy X 0 0.000
RUI Russell 1000 Index Neg 04/24/2002 Sell None O 0 0.000
RUJ Russell 2000 Value Idx Pos 11/02/1999 Sell Buy O 0 0.000
RUO Russell 2000 Growth Index Neg 06/14/2002 Sell Sell X 0 0.000
RUT Russell 2000 Index Neg 07/02/2002 Sell Buy O 1 0.000
SGX S&P Barra Growth Index Neg 03/25/2002 Sell Sell O 156 30.520
SML S&P 600 Small Cap Index Neg 06/04/2002 Sell Buy X 600 30.590
SPX S & P 500 Index Neg 04/25/2002 Sell None O 501 30.460
SVX S & P Barra Value Index Neg 04/26/2002 Sell Buy X 342 29.010
TMW Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index Neg 05/28/2002 Sell None X 0 0.000
VA/Y Value Line Arithmetic Spot Neg 06/04/2002 Sell Buy O 1 0.000
VG/Y Value Line Geometric Spot Neg 06/03/2002 Sell Sell O 0 0.000
XAX The AMEX Composite Index Neg 07/11/2002 Sell Buy X 0 0.000
XII Amex Institutional Index Neg 04/24/2002 Sell Sell O 75 25.680
XMI Amex Major MKT Index Pos 08/19/2002 Sell Buy X 20 10.000
$indu / djia P&F
Dow Jones (DJIA) The trend chart of Dow Jones shows the index is in a downtrend, or trading below the Bearish Resistance Line. The most recent pattern was a Double Bottom at 8200.000 on 09/17/2002. The index's trend chart is currently in a column of O's. The weekly distribution puts the index on the oversold side by -58.1% The mid range of the distribution is at 8500.16. The weekly momentum turned negative on 09/13/2002 indicating short term weakness.
7733.20 8196.79 8660.38
Weekly Distribution Table
/ +
/ + +
/ + +
/ + +
+* +
+ / +
-----/------------------------------
7094.47 8500.16 9905.84
Momentums Period Status Cross point
Daily Negative
11 Days 8159.99
Weekly Negative
2 Weeks 8774.74
Monthly Negative
4 Months 10500.56
From dow theory letters tonite :
Question -- Russell, you keep talking about an A-B-C bear market formation, and you've said that we're in the first major wave down-wave or the A leg. Where do you think we are in this A wave or leg?
Answer -- I'm sorry to say that I believe we're far from the end of this initial down-leg. I base this partly on the still "hopeful" sentiment regarding the market, and the fact that I still don't sense any panic or extreme fear. Also, we've only had one 90% downside day so far, and that one occurred on September 3. According to Lowry's history, the average major bear market decline sees five 90% downside days.
My old friend, Bob Prechter of Elliott Wave fame believes we're at about at the half-way level of this major A down-wave. I'll go along with Bob.
JRM, why do you think we crash now? What confluence of things is it has you so keyed on this? It's not that I don't believe, it's that I don't understand .... why now?
Thanks
Download PM's dossier on Iraq
http://www.number-10.gov.uk/output/Page6139.asp
http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/UNID/TWOD-5EA6AZ
NEW YORK -- They came for fire and brimstone. They got it. They are gold bugs; a 3,000 strong congregation that descended on the Marriot Marquis in Manhattan for the fifteenth annual New York Institutional Gold Conference.
Gold's high priests did not disappoint. These money shows are expected to deliver strong harmonies, but this one offered unusual doctrinal purity with this refrain – we're experiencing a secular bull market for gold and a secular bear market for, well, pretty much everything else. Indeed, the secularism required for this religion is so extraordinary that last year's conference was cancelled for lack of interest; that was when gold was only just beginning its ascent and before Alan Greenspan became the devil incarnate.
As if to reinforce the metal's revivalist power, conference coreligionists could marvel at Danté's Inferno raging on the electronic ticker tapes (Dow -114; Nasd -36; S&P5c -12; 10-yr -.095) threading above Times' Square. The photons pulsing billions of vanishing dollars were, however, lost on today's Broadway exhibitionist; very much the heathen secularist – a guitar mauling, Stetson capped crooner with "Naked Cowboy" scrawled across his rear end.
Jim Sinclair, on the other hand, remained fully clothed and guitar free at all times. Latterly chairman of Tan Range Exploration [TNX], but more famous as "Mr Gold" for his four decades of experience with the metal, Sinclair packed the pews and the aisles.
He is literally the Billy Graham of this business, which has more than its share of Al Sharptons and Jesse Jacksons. He had an unadulterated message of portfolio salvation that doesn't require intercession. It's between you and the gold price.
He and Monaco based newsletter publisher Harry Schultz have essentially repackaged the marriage vows – love gold, but don't die with it. They warn that you can have every fundamental in place, but without the right technical props gold is little more than a Roman candle waiting for a match – blindingly bright for a short time before flaming out never to be reused.
Gold's flame out could follow a spectacular lift-off ignited by the confluence of 5 factors. Sinclair sees the dollar going into freefall and precipitating the revival of the "Gold Cover Clause", originally mothballed by Nixon. The cover clause basically stipulates a percentage of gold backing the dollar and is seen as the only hope to prevent an outright dollar implosion with catastrophic economic, political and social consequences.
"If gold goes over $529 without the gold cover clause [being invoked], then sell because it will get below $200 an ounce!" boomed Sinclair. And with that he left the stage to the most rapturous applause of the day.
A rather more sober message than the unalloyed exuberance of the thousands-of-dollars-an-ounce crowd.
What the meek stand to inherit
James Grant of Grant's Interest Rate Observer also attracted a large following. Grant, soft spoken and a master of that American peccadillo, the euphemism (collateral damage, stature deprived, IQ challenged…), made a good G.K. Chesterton or C.S. Lewis. The cerebral style is no less effective at winning converts.
A battle between inflation and deflation rages behind Grant's Narnian spreadsheets. Both evil, to be sure, but the former is vastly more favourable to gold which emerges as a one-dimensional Aslan. Taking his cue from history, Grant said deflation was only likely when "credit creation was stymied." He doesn't see that at all, just an "overinvestment of faith in the dollar, yen and euro" that will be rewarded by "a concerted effort to depreciate currencies through rampant credit creation." Heretics have been burned for less, but Grant seems indifferent to immolation: "When it's over, the Fed will look like the Bank of Japan."
He was especially uncomplimentary of Maestro, aka Greenspan – "a self-exculpating revisionist"; "he's been found out as a federal employee, not a miracle worker"; "he sounded more like a stock broker" (now that is a sin) and "the public sector's Jack Welch" were just some of the reproofs.
Indeed, Maestro is being single-handedly fingered for the tech stock cult, now in its death throes, but which spawned such excess that the funeral pyre of malinvestment will burn long and hot. Judgement is at hand in the form a potential 30% fall in the Dow back to "fair value", thinks Grant.
Grant didn't put any store in the gold conspiracy, simply because the metal is more powerful than any government and any monetary authority; witness the failed London Gold Pool of the 1960s. "All monetary systems come and go; this one doesn't even have a name… One day Alan Greenspan will fix the wrong Federal Funds rate... the world's faith in managed currencies is just amazing."
Get the message
David Tice, of Prudent Bear Fund fame, had an identical message to Grant, but he used some flashy props to drive the points home.
Again, it is all about excessive credit and Greenspan's folly. "You cannot burst the biggest bubble in history with mild results… what-the-hell debt is financing the spending."
Tice warns that unbelievers will be happily seduced by bear market rallies, but the faithful remnant will be holding gold, knowing this is the famed secular bear market; a rapture of sorts for gold bugs. "The magnitude of the bust will be proportional to the excess of the boom," Tice thundered to an enthralled audience, reminding them of the decadence (he actually said, in Grantesque fashion, "sociological defects") of corrupt CEOs and scummy bankers.
"The Fed has no bullets left," he said, rolling out a series of charts with peaks soaring higher than hedonistic 1929 and leaving you with no doubt that the valley that awaits will need more than one Psalm. And with that, many think the devil has been unmasked. And the fellow appears to be a vertically challenged, age enhanced Objectivist.
A cautionary tale
An angel appears to John and tells him that he has 10 minutes to get his life in order because he's about to die. "Okay, I've got 2 suitcases full of Krugerrands in the basement, let me collect them and we can go," John says, unfazed.
"No. I can't allow that," says the angel.
"Please, I worked my whole life for them. I can't leave them now."
"Alright, but I'm not carrying anything."
Accompanied by the angel, John arrives at the pearly gates, overburdened suitcases in hand. St Peter comes out to greet him, but steps short at the sight of the suitcases. "You don't need an overnight bag where you're going," he chortles.
"No, no," fusses John, "look here." With that he snaps open the case, proudly revealing towers of mint Krugers.
"Pavement! You brought pavement to Heaven?" St Peter asks incredulously.
Comment on this story >
The glory of gold (Tim Wood)
. . right stuff (joel casey)
. . Thanx Tim...A spot of sunshine on an otherwise dreary day...wish I could'a been there (Jack Fortin)
. . Article: The Glory of Gold (James A. Termini)
now that was a chart that made sense.
Predatory Lending is a fearsome thing. I have seen credit extended to people who cannot add, much less compute percentages. Old people, cognitively impaired people and your average garden variety fully capable nit wit. Everyone can have so much credit... but you'll notice the laws have crept up so that discharge of debt in bankrupcy is harder and harder.
oh dear. That didn't go well at all, and I accidentally saved one of those charts to be my wallpaper. Unsettling. And kane you are just full of good ideas tonite.
I give up, that's it I quit for tonite..
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saik, if you send me your provider and passwords and crud I can set it up for you, I'm bad at html but I have some page builder stuff and can do it good enuf so you can have a place of your own to upload stuff to I think, maybe.
that won't work cause what we want is saik's charts and he eschews MSN.
but he doesn't inhale.
You cheap drunk.
so what did you find, you know any dingbat can find a great 30 dollar bottle, but a great 2 dollar bottle?????
Saik old boy,
Isn't this your provider?
http://support.cox.net/custsup/personal_pages/index.shtml
Pictures here of the cabin by the way.... of the one on the island I been workin on
http://groups.msn.com/FCTraders/shoebox.msnw
Also it would be real nice if we could have posts emailed to our email so we could follow em there. Cause otherwise we get busy and forget it exists.
I could email you one of saik's beautiful posts so you could figure out how to make it so. I think it must not be too hard.
mebbie he can?
I couldn't figger out how to post my charts here. And besides, if you have a few dozen of my P&F charts who needs those beauts Saik posts??????
PS I"M KIDDING, sheesh.
I think we just wanna be able to see the charts. Attachments are an annoyance.
Yes! Hoooooray!
How'd you do that?????
: )
hic!
sory about the double post.
well geesh
that solves it all!
try this
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=msft,P
saiks are more fancy and excellent for papering the walls of the bath.
: )
well geesh
that solves it all!
try this
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=msft,P
saiks are more fancy and excellent for papering the walls of the bath.
: )
Excellent cheap wine
Louis Bernard Cotes du Rhone 99
ok so if anyone wants to post a chart so everyone can peer at it it can go here. Saik, I can forward your charts to here.
: )
http://groups.msn.com/FCTraders/_whatsnew.msnw
It's open again and just for charts.
S & P 100 Index (OEX)
Updated Through- 09/19/2002 (423.06 Down 12.93)
SPX RS = Buy, / / ; col=Os
Trend Chart Broke a Double Bottom on 09/18/2002
Evaluate This Index
Bearish Price Obj: 390.0 Bearish Reward to Risk 0.79
S & P 100 Index (OEX) The trend chart of S & P 100 Index shows the index is in a downtrend, or trading below the Bearish Resistance Line. The most recent pattern was a Double Bottom at 435.000 on 09/18/2002. The index's trend chart is currently in a column of O's. The weekly distribution puts the index on the oversold side by -20.3% The mid range of the distribution is at 453.16. The weekly momentum turned negative on 09/13/2002 indicating short term weakness.
CKG AMEX S&P 600 Barra Growth Index Neg 07/02/2002 Buy Buy X 0 0.000
CVK AMEX S&P 600 Barra Value Index Neg 07/15/2002 Buy Buy O 0 0.000
DJGT Dow Jones Global Titans Index Neg 04/26/2002 Sell Sell O 36 40.000
DJIA Dow Jones Pos 08/22/2002 Sell None 30 36.670
DJX The Dow Jones Industrial Avg. Index Opt. Neg 09/17/2001 Sell Buy X 30 36.670
DWALCG Dorsey Wright Large Cap Growth Index Neg 06/11/2002 Buy Buy X 30 53.330
DWALCV Dorsey Wright Large Cap Value Index Neg 09/17/2001 Buy Buy X 30 26.670
DWASCG Dorsey Wright Small Cap Growth Index Neg 06/25/2002 Sell Buy O 30 43.330
DWASCV Dorsey Wright Small Cap Value Index Neg 07/19/2002 Sell Buy O 44 22.730
EMW The Wilshire 4500 Completion Index Neg 06/04/2002 Buy Buy X 0 0.000
MGD AMEX S&P 400 Barra Growth Index Pos 08/22/2002 Sell Buy X 0 0.000
MID S&P 400 Midcap Index Neg 06/04/2002 Sell Buy X 400 39.600
MLN Nikkei 225 Market Index Target-Term Sec Neg 05/22/2000 None None X 1 0.000
MUV AMEX S&P 400 Barra Value Index Neg 07/11/2002 Buy Buy X 0 0.000
NASD Nasdaq Composite Neg 09/22/2000 Sell Sell O 1 0.000
NDX NASDAQ Non Financial Index Neg 02/09/2001 Sell Sell O 100 31.310
NHB The New York Stock Exchange Beta Index Pos 08/22/2002 Sell Buy X 0 0.000
NYA New York Composite Neg 06/03/2002 Sell Buy X 1 0.000
NYSEUS1 NYSE U.S. 100 Index Neg 07/10/2002 Sell None O 0 0.000
OEX S & P 100 Index Neg 04/25/2002 Sell Buy O 100 37.000
RDG Russell Midcap Growth IX Neg 05/07/2002 Sell None X 0 0.000
RLG Russell 1000 Growth Index Neg 04/24/2002 Buy Sell O 0 0.000
RLV Russell 1000 Value Index Neg 06/06/2002 Sell Buy X 0 0.000
RMC Russell Midcap Index Neg 06/03/2002 Sell Buy X 0 0.000
RMV Russell Midcap Value IX Neg 06/14/2002 Sell Buy X 0 0.000
RUI Russell 1000 Index Neg 04/24/2002 Sell None O 0 0.000
RUJ Russell 2000 Value Idx Pos 11/02/1999 Sell Buy O 0 0.000
RUO Russell 2000 Growth Index Neg 06/14/2002 Sell Sell X 0 0.000
RUT Russell 2000 Index Neg 07/02/2002 Sell Buy O 1 0.000
SGX S&P Barra Growth Index Neg 03/25/2002 Sell Sell O 156 49.350
SML S&P 600 Small Cap Index Neg 06/04/2002 Sell Buy X 600 37.140
SPX S & P 500 Index Neg 04/25/2002 Sell None O 501 43.490
SVX S & P Barra Value Index Neg 04/26/2002 Sell Buy X 342 39.810
TMW Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index Neg 05/28/2002 Sell None X 0 0.000
VA/Y Value Line Arithmetic Spot Neg 06/04/2002 Sell Buy O 1 0.000
VG/Y Value Line Geometric Spot Neg 06/03/2002 Buy Sell O 0 0.000
XAX The AMEX Composite Index Neg 07/11/2002 Buy Buy X 0 0.000
XII Amex Institutional Index Neg 04/24/2002 Sell Sell O 75 44.590
XMI Amex Major MKT Index Pos 08/19/2002 Sell Buy X 20 35.000
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=%24spx,P this chart, in P&F speak, is broke down. It's not meaning it's going to continue down short term, in fact it could do all sorts of things given folks having sellers remorse and buyers glee and what not. But, it's broken.
Broken, broken, broken.