All posts are for your entertainment only. Buy and sell at your own risk. In other words, I do my thing - you do your thing.
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If central banks pivot too soon yeah it may bring speculators back into commodities. I think they’re gonna hammer it with high rates and just leave them there.. flat, stagflation type of environment and flat commodities, rather than the end of the world depression scenario being described on this board
Link back to this message. Read it again
Just an fyi, interest futures have been slowly pricing in a 4.5% terminal rate (ie end of hikes) by Feb 2023. It was solidly 5% middle of next year. Inflation has peaked.. deflation is the risk now, and the market knows it. So what’s the next trade? Stay short forever? Nah bro
Interest futures would show a hike Monday and they don’t, nor does the dollar show it. Markets is obviously going lower overall but come on.
This is probably the most headfake nonsense market I’ve ever seen. Perfect for gamblers and guessers
DJI going to 2? Population of earth 5. To new beginnings
With gasoline futures at 2.38, +.70c tends to be taxes, gas station profit, fees around here. i can’t imagine why it would be triple the trading price of gasoline. That’s basically California prices.. and their housing is also screwed up. I’d imagine somethings broken somewhere
$3 where I am
My guy, you will never get long this market. You will be Peter Schiff. Get your website goin so you can Hawk gold coins
WHILE {Market = high of day}
Set CAPSLOCK == false;
FUNCTION Sleep[];
FUNCTION Sleep[]
Stare at wall;
Return[];
Those levels you highlighted would be perfect for the scenario I’m describing. I wouldn’t want to be waiting on a specific level though, but that general area could come in
So the way I see it, this 2009-2022 bull market is over. Rallies from here are bear market rallies. They can be traded but know what it is. Everything has fallen into place. Small caps were the first to go in 2021. Large caps hit next in 2022. Extreme exuberance like no other last few years. The business cycle end and restart is near completion. Now we have energy crisis. Slowing economy. Everything is out of alignment. Even bond market has broke. Currency problems, coming deflation. Wow. Governments will intervene but still bear market rallies to me. BUT how you look at the big picture tells me and others what kind of person you are. are you prepared? Mentally? Financially? Imo we are about to have the best buying opportunity since 2008. Deep recession? Depression? Doesn’t matter. Market will bottom by the end of 2023 if you count starting Jan 22. Possibly extend a bit into 2024. Indexes will remain higher than 2008 overall due to stock growth and companies being swapped out of indices etc, but the same principles apply.
Most folks will ignore the buying opportunity because they’ll be so beat down by the bear they won’t want to buy or touch anything. Plus daytraders just want whatever’s moving and don’t care about markets. But if you’re preparing and understand what’s happening you’ll be fine. The economy will recover.
Incase you’re wondering if I’m issuing a warning at bottom of market, I’ve been in a trading discord for the better part of 2021-22 warning of the risk of 3000 on the SPX.
All just my opinion.
35m vol the other day. Someone’s in trouble..
While I think markets ultimately go lower after some bounces and what not, I’ll consider them buy opportunities. Looking at 3000-2000 SPX at the moment - retest Covid lows. But still bouncing these big down moves
You reaaaaallly like ADTX. Lol. I mean I like it ok. But you really like it..
When market goes to shit, protests will erupt in the streets and groups are better organized with social media. Wouldn’t want to live in the city when this goes down. No red text needed
Boing lol
daily still looks like temp bottom. need probably 390 area for a sucker's rally
Yep. I prefer scribble to shouting and preachy doom. I’ve been super bearish for what feels like a long time before that and I don’t treat people like that. Must be a lot of kids on these boards
DOOM AND GLOOM on my RADIO. I mean doesn’t say much for price action but doom is definitely a crowd thing now. The early and smart short was 440+
Maybe a little lower or maybe not but bounce soon
Meant to say *no longer
Til I’m not longer green on them. If I go red I get in trouble
Ideally I would want something like 380-390 as short area. Definitely not while rsi is in the gutter. That’s a crowd short. Nice bounce
I’m not trying to call it. I’m trying to catch it. Maybe try again in 350s if this fails or exhaustion gap next few days
There’s the crash call bottom alert.. lol. Jk. Maybe
Just in general
Good start for a bounce. Same idea as yesterday for me.. tight stop at low and be skeptical on weakness
make good calls, traders will appreciate you. But nobody likes ego
I guess rally’s are on the 5 min. Lol
I agree. Still a sell the rally type of market. And by rally I mean oscillation flip on daily. Everyone always super bearish at the lows then quiet at the highs
Yeah.seems like it’s a bit overextended, but could rip a bit more and cause some panic in markets. Lookin for it to pull and market bounce a bit. watching volatility here
If we sell off from here, imo we’ll just have to bounce it from lower. Why do folks get sell happy into extreme oversold territory? Lol
The treasury isn’t going to default
A rally.. imagine that
There’s a definite correlation with the global reserve currency (US Dollar) and to the S&P and other markets, but not in a 1:1 ratio. It acts in extreme scenarios as a safe haven for money. It’s the main reason why I could never really fully get on the crypto or precious metal train. Because when interest rates rise, deflation is the outcome, the dollar runs up and all other assets fall. So a 1:1 correlation with the dollar for the moment tends to tighten as more people start to pay attention and are weary of it. Keep in mind for the better part of the last 12 years all we’d hear is how the dollar was going to collapse, coming from a differently informed group of people.. which gave rise to the exuberance we saw in crypto. And an incredible run in gold. But the real risk now is deflation..and as the dollar holds strength, dollars increase in value which makes other assets decrease… to put in simpler terms.
Im not sure how much more the dollar has in it. Maybe to $120. Maybe just here at $114x But the damage is being done with its overall strength and not necessarily day to day. That’s my take on it. There’s a lot of good articles on the rising dollar and deflation going back many years, but it seems to be coming to fruition now so timing has been off, but the idea has always been there.
From 2011:
https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-usa-economy-deflation/nightmare-scenario-u-s-deflation-risks-rising-idUKLNE79Q01620111027
Terminal rate dropped from 5% to 4.75 last few days which is interesting because it had been 5% for awhile.
Either way I can’t recall a time when feds cycle of interest rate hikes was good for the markets - always ends badly. Gonna get to play some cheap stocks again soon.
Ugly close
Back then I was playing what I thought to be near market bottom. This is not a market bottom.. more like the complete opposite of a bottom. lol. Averaging down is not the same as scaling in. Think my average on DAN ended up being 40c, SIRI around a dime. Had a bunch of others. Had both GM AND F at one point. Had a bunch of BAC, RF, C. Not the same strategy you’re referring to.
In 2008-2009 scaled into 20-30 different stocks and sat. Tech and auto suppliers in 08, fins in 09. Didn’t need to time it, just manage capital allocation