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Article on Insider Buying / Selling Activity
Started 1 hour ago (By dirtyharry)
By Alistair Barr, MarketWatch
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- As the stock market rallied in recent months, company insiders have been selling, a sign that investors should exit, too, TrimTabs Investment Research said Monday.
"As investors have turned more upbeat, the smartest money in the stock market has been leaving the party," TrimTabs wrote in a note to clients.
TrimTabs, run by Charles Biderman, tracks share buybacks and acquisitions, along with new equity issuance by companies and stock buying and selling by chief executives and other corporate insiders.
This allows the firm to gauge the level of outstanding shares, or "float," in the market -- potentially useful information when trying to work out which way prices are heading next. It's particularly helpful because companies and their executives know more than outsiders such as investors, TrimTabs argues.
Judging by the behavior of these insiders in recent weeks, the signs aren't good for the stock market, the firm said Monday.
Last week there were $31.3 billion of new equity offerings, as many of the nation's largest banks sold stock to raise new capital, TrimTabs reported, noting that's the highest level of issuance this decade.
"Companies took advantage of the rally to flood the market with new shares," TrimTabs wrote.
Meanwhile, announced corporate buying was "almost non-existent," no new cash takeovers were unveiled and insiders sold $500 million worth of stock, the firm added.
The overall float of shares in the market soared by $34.6 billion during the first 10 days of May. That puts this month's float increase on course to be the largest this decade, TrimTabs said.
"The message the 'house' is sending is clear -- investors should get out of the stock market," the firm concluded.
http://www.marketguru.com/opinions/article-insider-buying--selling/1002,5380
FAZ...Thanks for posting that. In addition, think it's worth noting that the MACD has really improved. It's in a much better position than it was before.
NYSE NASDAQ
Advances 2,743 (72%) 1,911 (68%)
Declines 962 (25%) 777 (28%)
Unchanged 83 (2%) 112 (4%)
Up Vol* 297 (18%) 1,334 (78%)
Down Vol* 1,319 (79%) 343 (20%)
Unch. Vol* 48 (3%) 36 (2%)
New Hi's 6 11
New Lo's 41 17
*****Note down volume significantly more than up volume...
Right...looks like FAS is being pushed up to a new HOD.
So far FAZ LOD was the pivot @ 5.50....correction...6.06 was the pivot and 5.50 was S.
Max pain for FAZ is $6.
http://www.optionpain.com/MaxPain/Max-Pain.php
I think that www.stockta.com site is helpful. Plus if you surf around it, you will find they have some decent scans for stocks based on TA.
Yes, I agree with you that credit card companies will try to give the final shaft before this goes through. BTW, President is on TV now talking about this and says he wants the bill on his desk by Memorial Day.
What Does McClellan Oscillator Mean?
A market breadth indicator that is based on the difference between the number of advancing and declining issues on the NYSE. It is primarily used for short and intermediate term trading.
Usually, a small number of stocks making large gains characterizes a weakening bull market. This gives the perception that the overall market is healthy, but in reality it isn't, as rising prices are being driven by a small number of stocks. Conversely, when a bear market is still declining, but a smaller amount of stocks are declining, an end to the bear market may be near.
***Note how the McClellan has been going down while the market was still going up. Granted there is a little up for today; however, I still see this as a weakening up move.
I'll post a chart in a few minutes to show you why I'm positive on FAZ. It'll take me awhile to get it.
5.50 sounds good to me; however, I have to wait until tomorrow to transfer money in, so I'll buy then. Today IMHO is just squeezing the shorts and make them question their position.
Regarding BAC and others involved in credit cards, these new guidelines coming up regarding what they can and can't do will hurt their chances of giving the shaft to the cardholder to benefit them.
BAC...Did you notice this page where it gives the daily pivot point, R, and S?
http://www.stockta.com/cgi-bin/opinion.pl?symb=BAC&num1=5&mode=stock
With option expiration tomorrow and the financials being down for a few days, I'm not surprised to see this bounce.
BAC...closed at 11.04 and just made a new LOD @ 10.78. Must be due to the credit card info I posted.
Senate Credit-Card Legislation Could Crimp Issuers' GrowthLast update: 5/13/2009 4:43:12 PM
By Aparajita Saha-Bubna
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
BOSTON (Dow Jones)--Proposed credit-card legislation would put the brakes on the ability of issuers to raise interest rates and impose late fees - the very tools used by card companies to offset rising losses in the current economic slump. The rules being debated in the Senate would not only deprive card issuers of crucial ammunition but also would threaten to crimp industry growth. One way companies may respond - raise costs for financially sound consumers. The legislation would also probably make card companies cut back on lending to less-creditworthy borrowers. The new legislation comes at a time when card issuers - such as Capital One Financial Corp. (COF), Bank of America Corp. (BAC), Citigroup Inc. (C), Discover Financial Services (DFS) and American Express Co. (AXP) - are reeling from losses on souring credit-card debt amid rising unemployment and a slumping economy. The proposed legislation makes "their business model less resilient," says Sanjay Sakhrani, an analyst at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods. "One of the best parts of this business was the ability to re-price rates based on risk, and that lever will no longer be available to card issuers a year from now." The proposed legislation includes a bill that caps interest rates banks can charge credit-card users. Another would ban card issuers from raising rates on existing balances unless the consumer is 60 days late on payment. An amendment also being debated would make it easier for retailers to give discounts to consumers who use cash, checks or debit cards rather than credit cards, depriving banks of lucrative fees associated with credit-card transactions. The bill is tougher than legislation the House passed and goes well beyond new Federal Reserve rules curbing credit-card practices that will take effect July 2010. The amendments being pushed in the Senate would add even more restrictions on banks. Senators so far haven't reached a final agreement on which amendments will be offered or a plan to move forward on the bill. Peter Garuccio, a spokesman at the American Bankers Association, a trade group, said the legislation "represents a fundamental change in the way card companies conduct business." Restrictions on raising rates take away the issuers' ability to manage risk related to borrowers with patchy credit. Moreover, in an effort to make up for lost revenue, card issuers could begin charging annual fees and raising rates on foreign exchange transactions, which would affect even the most sound borrowers. Card companies might also scale back lending to those with shaky credit, as the risk of defaults would outweigh gains if the card issuer can no longer raise rates to compensate for the additional risk. "People who have good credit may have to compensate for people with bad credit," says KBW's Sakhrani. "People may also find credit cards not economically viable." To be sure, card issuers have moved quickly to hike rates ahead of July next year, when the Federal Reserve's new rules on credit cards kick in. Top card companies, including JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), Citigroup, Bank of America, Capital One and American Express, are already "raising interest rates on a larger portion of customers than usual and increasing the number of fees they impose," Joshua Frank, a senior researcher at the Center For Responsible Lending, said in a research note Monday. Many cardholders have seen increases of as much as 10 percentage points or more over their existing rate, notes Frank. But there is concern that card issuers acting hastily in an effort to lessen the impact of the regulation could cause damage. "If they re-price too fast or too hard," KBW's Sakhrani says, "card issuers could tip over struggling borrowers." -By Aparajita Saha-Bubna, Dow Jones Newswires; 617-654-6729; aparajita.saha-bubna@dowjones.com (Jessica Holzer contributed to this report.) (END) Dow Jones NewswiresMay 13, 2009 16:43 ET (20:43 GMT)
...and then 6.33.:)
Hmmmmmmm...I wondered why FAZ hit a new HOD in AHs and banks were hitting lows. Guess this might be it. Thanks.
FAZ...You are definitely to be admired for your determination with charts since you have a slow connection. For years I was on dial up since I live out in cow pasture and I know just how challenging that can be. I thought it was an especially good day if the streamer did any streaming. LOL Anyway, thought you did a good job of your chart and made sense to me. We all have our particular ways we study charts and I do like to use fibs, but realize there's many other ways to analyze. Thanks for your input.
Lexi
I was looking at the 50% retrace of this particular time and got 8.83 area. Of course fib tool isn't as accurate as fib calculator.
Nice chart. I was looking at the 50% retrace of this particular time and got 8.83 area. Of course fib tool isn't as accurate as fib calculator.
Amen to that.:) People in the administration would have been fired IMHO if something was leaked that they didn't want leaked.
Airtime: Mon. May 11 2009 | 2:13 PM ET
CNBC's Maria Bartiromo discusses big banks' plans to sell common shares in order to repay TARP funds, with Meredith Whitney, Meredith Whitney Advisory Group founder & CEO.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1120084432&play=1
Airtime: Mon. May 11 2009 | 2:13 PM ET
CNBC's Maria Bartiromo discusses big banks' plans to sell common shares in order to repay TARP funds, with Meredith Whitney, Meredith Whitney Advisory Group founder & CEO.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1120084432&play=1
When you have the perfect time share it with me...okay? :)
Thanks. I guess we'll know for sure just what this is as time goes on. Personally, I think there are more shoes to drop before things get better.
One thing I am noticing unless it changes in the next seven minutes or so is that there isn't the normal EOD buying of FAS yet.
FAZ...currently at 5.11 and needs to pass the HOD of Friday, which was 5.54.
Chichi,
Again I have read a post of yours that is filled with good common sense and reasoning. I do agree with you that this is manufactured. "Don't fight the fed" is something I've heard over and over. On more than one occasion I've traded what I THOUGHT should be, rather than what WAS. I usually didn't come out a winner in those cases. I was long at times with this move up, but anything I missed until it was up I thought to myself it would be chasing, so I didn't rebuy. For example, I sold FAS I believe around or before $8. It had gone up from the 2s and I thought I was taking chances holding it. Of course charts show us it went up around 5 more points from there. I know this isn't a political board and what I say isn't meant to be strictly political; however, I do believe that our administration is doing all in their power to get the public to have confidence in the market and a belief that things are improving. I think that is showing in the market with this recent rally.
Lexi
Chichi,
I have great respect for you. I've followed you off and on for a number of years. I believe I read the other day that you didn't think this was a bear market rally. Correct me if I'm wrong. Anyway, would like your comments on this, please:
Merrill's Rosenberg: Goodbye, Thank You, Yes It's Just a Sucker's Rally
Posted May 11, 2009 09:29am EDT by Henry Blodget in Investing, Recession, Banking
Related: xlf, dia, spy, ^ixic
From The Business Insider, May 11, 2009:
Merrill's economist David Rosenberg left the firm Friday, May 8 (planned for several months). And he went out swinging. David has maintained from the beginning that the recent rocket rally off the lows is just a suckers' rally, and he reiterated that view as he walked through the doors.
Some excerpts from his swan song, which was published Thursday:
Market likely to peak the end of the week [Friday]. Just as the clock is winding down on my tenure at Merrill Lynch, the equity market is winding up with an impressive near-40% rally in just nine weeks. For those that were still long the equity market back at the March 9 lows, a good ‘devil’s advocate’ exercise would be to ask yourself the question whether you would have taken the opportunity, if the offer had been presented, to have sold out your position with a 40% premium at the time. What do you think you would have said back then, as fears of financial Armageddon were setting in? We haven’t conducted a poll, but we are sure at least 90% of the longs at that point would have screamed “hit the bid!”
Are we at risk of missing the turn? Fast forward to today, and within two months optimism seems to have yet again replaced fear. Are we at risk of missing the turn? What if this is the real deal — a
new bull market? This is the question that economists, strategists and market analysts must answer.
Risk is much higher now than it was 18 weeks ago. The nine-week S&P 500 surge from 666 at the March lows to 920 as of yesterday has all but retraced the prior nine-week decline from the 2009 peak of 945 on January 6 to the lows on March 9. We believe it is appropriate to put the last nine weeks in the perspective of the previous nine weeks. To the casual observer, it really looks like nothing at all has happened this year, with the market relatively unchanged. But something very big has happened because the risk in the market, in our view, is much higher than it was the last time we were close to current market prices back in early January, for the simple reason that we believe professional investors have covered their shorts, lifted their hedges and lowered their cash positions in favor of being long the market.
Employment, output, income, sales still in a downtrend. Considering what transpired from an economic standpoint, the decline in the first nine weeks of the year was rather appropriate in the midst of the worst three-quarter performance the economy has turned in roughly 70 years. The rally of the past nine weeks appears to be rooted in green shoots. While it may be the case that the pace of economic decline is no longer as negative as it was at the peak of the post-Lehman credit contraction, the reality is that employment, output, organic personal income and retail sales are still in a fundamental downtrend.
Need to see an improvement in the first derivative. We have evidence that the consumer, after a first-quarter up-tick that was front- loaded into January, is relapsing in the current quarter despite the tax relief (didn’t we see this movie last year?). Not until improvement in the second derivative morphs into improvement in the first derivative with respect to the important economic data will it really be safe to declare what we are seeing as something more than a bear market rally, as impressive as it has been.
This is a bear market rally that may have run its course. The investing public is still holding tightly to their long-term resolve, but much of the buying power at the institutional level seems to have largely run its course, in our view. That leaves us with the opinion, as tenuous as it seems in the face of this market melt-up, that this is indeed a bear market rally and one that may well have run its course. We have “round-tripped” from the beginning of the year and there is real excitement in the air about how these last nine weeks represent evidence that the economy will begin expanding sometime in the second half of the year.
Growth pickup will likely prove transitory While it is likely that headline GDP will improve as inventory withdrawal subsides and fiscal policy stimulus kicks in, our view is that whatever growth pickup we will see will prove to be as transitory as it was in 2002, when under similar conditions the market ultimately succumbed to a very disappointing limping post-recession recovery. So yes, there may well be some improvement in the GDP data, but it is based largely on transitory factors. We strongly believe it is premature to totally rule out the end of the vicious cycle of real estate deflation – residential and now commercial – that we have been experiencing since 2007. Balance sheet compression in the household sector will continue to pressure the personal savings rate higher at the expense of discretionary consumer spending. This is a secular development, meaning that we expect it will last several more years.
Chances of a re-test of the March lows are non-trivial. To reiterate, it seems to us likely that the risk in the market is actually higher today than it was back at the same price points in early January, and we say that with all deference to the stress tests (which given the less-than-dire economic scenarios, along with the changes to mark-to-market accounting, were destined to reveal healthy results). While the consensus seems gripped with the burden of trying to decide if there is too much risk to be out of the market, we actually still believe that the chances of a re-test of the March lows are non-trivial, especially if the widely touted second-half economic rebound fails to materialize...
The data flow is less relevant this cycle than in the past. This was not a manufacturing inventory cycle, which makes the data flow less relevant than in the past. Real estate values are still deflating and the unemployment rate is still climbing; these are critical variables in determining the willingness of lenders to extend credit. And as we just saw in the Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Survey, while there may be a ‘thaw’ in the financial markets, banks are still maintaining tight guidelines. In fact, the weekly Fed data are now flagging the most intense declines in bank lending to households and businesses ever recorded.
The best case is that this is a bear market rally. All of this has not precluded an elastic band bounce from an egregiously oversold low in the S&P 500, and perhaps we will even test the 200-day moving average of 960 (as the 10-year note yield and NASDAQ just did). But we still do not believe what we are seeing fits the hallmark of a new bull market. In our view, the best case is that this is a bear market rally, but one that clearly has more legs than its predecessors this cycle.
Merrill's Rosenberg: Goodbye, Thank You, Yes It's Just a Sucker's Rally
Posted May 11, 2009 09:29am EDT by Henry Blodget in Investing, Recession, Banking
Related: xlf, dia, spy, ^ixic
From The Business Insider, May 11, 2009:
Merrill's economist David Rosenberg left the firm Friday, May 8 (planned for several months). And he went out swinging. David has maintained from the beginning that the recent rocket rally off the lows is just a suckers' rally, and he reiterated that view as he walked through the doors.
Some excerpts from his swan song, which was published Thursday:
Market likely to peak the end of the week [Friday]. Just as the clock is winding down on my tenure at Merrill Lynch, the equity market is winding up with an impressive near-40% rally in just nine weeks. For those that were still long the equity market back at the March 9 lows, a good ‘devil’s advocate’ exercise would be to ask yourself the question whether you would have taken the opportunity, if the offer had been presented, to have sold out your position with a 40% premium at the time. What do you think you would have said back then, as fears of financial Armageddon were setting in? We haven’t conducted a poll, but we are sure at least 90% of the longs at that point would have screamed “hit the bid!”
Are we at risk of missing the turn? Fast forward to today, and within two months optimism seems to have yet again replaced fear. Are we at risk of missing the turn? What if this is the real deal — a
new bull market? This is the question that economists, strategists and market analysts must answer.
Risk is much higher now than it was 18 weeks ago. The nine-week S&P 500 surge from 666 at the March lows to 920 as of yesterday has all but retraced the prior nine-week decline from the 2009 peak of 945 on January 6 to the lows on March 9. We believe it is appropriate to put the last nine weeks in the perspective of the previous nine weeks. To the casual observer, it really looks like nothing at all has happened this year, with the market relatively unchanged. But something very big has happened because the risk in the market, in our view, is much higher than it was the last time we were close to current market prices back in early January, for the simple reason that we believe professional investors have covered their shorts, lifted their hedges and lowered their cash positions in favor of being long the market.
Employment, output, income, sales still in a downtrend. Considering what transpired from an economic standpoint, the decline in the first nine weeks of the year was rather appropriate in the midst of the worst three-quarter performance the economy has turned in roughly 70 years. The rally of the past nine weeks appears to be rooted in green shoots. While it may be the case that the pace of economic decline is no longer as negative as it was at the peak of the post-Lehman credit contraction, the reality is that employment, output, organic personal income and retail sales are still in a fundamental downtrend.
Need to see an improvement in the first derivative. We have evidence that the consumer, after a first-quarter up-tick that was front- loaded into January, is relapsing in the current quarter despite the tax relief (didn’t we see this movie last year?). Not until improvement in the second derivative morphs into improvement in the first derivative with respect to the important economic data will it really be safe to declare what we are seeing as something more than a bear market rally, as impressive as it has been.
This is a bear market rally that may have run its course. The investing public is still holding tightly to their long-term resolve, but much of the buying power at the institutional level seems to have largely run its course, in our view. That leaves us with the opinion, as tenuous as it seems in the face of this market melt-up, that this is indeed a bear market rally and one that may well have run its course. We have “round-tripped” from the beginning of the year and there is real excitement in the air about how these last nine weeks represent evidence that the economy will begin expanding sometime in the second half of the year.
Growth pickup will likely prove transitory While it is likely that headline GDP will improve as inventory withdrawal subsides and fiscal policy stimulus kicks in, our view is that whatever growth pickup we will see will prove to be as transitory as it was in 2002, when under similar conditions the market ultimately succumbed to a very disappointing limping post-recession recovery. So yes, there may well be some improvement in the GDP data, but it is based largely on transitory factors. We strongly believe it is premature to totally rule out the end of the vicious cycle of real estate deflation – residential and now commercial – that we have been experiencing since 2007. Balance sheet compression in the household sector will continue to pressure the personal savings rate higher at the expense of discretionary consumer spending. This is a secular development, meaning that we expect it will last several more years.
Chances of a re-test of the March lows are non-trivial. To reiterate, it seems to us likely that the risk in the market is actually higher today than it was back at the same price points in early January, and we say that with all deference to the stress tests (which given the less-than-dire economic scenarios, along with the changes to mark-to-market accounting, were destined to reveal healthy results). While the consensus seems gripped with the burden of trying to decide if there is too much risk to be out of the market, we actually still believe that the chances of a re-test of the March lows are non-trivial, especially if the widely touted second-half economic rebound fails to materialize...
The data flow is less relevant this cycle than in the past. This was not a manufacturing inventory cycle, which makes the data flow less relevant than in the past. Real estate values are still deflating and the unemployment rate is still climbing; these are critical variables in determining the willingness of lenders to extend credit. And as we just saw in the Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Survey, while there may be a ‘thaw’ in the financial markets, banks are still maintaining tight guidelines. In fact, the weekly Fed data are now flagging the most intense declines in bank lending to households and businesses ever recorded.
The best case is that this is a bear market rally. All of this has not precluded an elastic band bounce from an egregiously oversold low in the S&P 500, and perhaps we will even test the 200-day moving average of 960 (as the 10-year note yield and NASDAQ just did). But we still do not believe what we are seeing fits the hallmark of a new bull market. In our view, the best case is that this is a bear market rally, but one that clearly has more legs than its predecessors this cycle.
Merrill's Rosenberg: Goodbye, Thank You, Yes It's Just a Sucker's Rally
Posted May 11, 2009 09:29am EDT by Henry Blodget in Investing, Recession, Banking
Related: xlf, dia, spy, ^ixic
From The Business Insider, May 11, 2009:
Merrill's economist David Rosenberg left the firm Friday, May 8 (planned for several months). And he went out swinging. David has maintained from the beginning that the recent rocket rally off the lows is just a suckers' rally, and he reiterated that view as he walked through the doors.
Some excerpts from his swan song, which was published Thursday:
Market likely to peak the end of the week [Friday]. Just as the clock is winding down on my tenure at Merrill Lynch, the equity market is winding up with an impressive near-40% rally in just nine weeks. For those that were still long the equity market back at the March 9 lows, a good ‘devil’s advocate’ exercise would be to ask yourself the question whether you would have taken the opportunity, if the offer had been presented, to have sold out your position with a 40% premium at the time. What do you think you would have said back then, as fears of financial Armageddon were setting in? We haven’t conducted a poll, but we are sure at least 90% of the longs at that point would have screamed “hit the bid!”
Are we at risk of missing the turn? Fast forward to today, and within two months optimism seems to have yet again replaced fear. Are we at risk of missing the turn? What if this is the real deal — a
new bull market? This is the question that economists, strategists and market analysts must answer.
Risk is much higher now than it was 18 weeks ago. The nine-week S&P 500 surge from 666 at the March lows to 920 as of yesterday has all but retraced the prior nine-week decline from the 2009 peak of 945 on January 6 to the lows on March 9. We believe it is appropriate to put the last nine weeks in the perspective of the previous nine weeks. To the casual observer, it really looks like nothing at all has happened this year, with the market relatively unchanged. But something very big has happened because the risk in the market, in our view, is much higher than it was the last time we were close to current market prices back in early January, for the simple reason that we believe professional investors have covered their shorts, lifted their hedges and lowered their cash positions in favor of being long the market.
Employment, output, income, sales still in a downtrend. Considering what transpired from an economic standpoint, the decline in the first nine weeks of the year was rather appropriate in the midst of the worst three-quarter performance the economy has turned in roughly 70 years. The rally of the past nine weeks appears to be rooted in green shoots. While it may be the case that the pace of economic decline is no longer as negative as it was at the peak of the post-Lehman credit contraction, the reality is that employment, output, organic personal income and retail sales are still in a fundamental downtrend.
Need to see an improvement in the first derivative. We have evidence that the consumer, after a first-quarter up-tick that was front- loaded into January, is relapsing in the current quarter despite the tax relief (didn’t we see this movie last year?). Not until improvement in the second derivative morphs into improvement in the first derivative with respect to the important economic data will it really be safe to declare what we are seeing as something more than a bear market rally, as impressive as it has been.
This is a bear market rally that may have run its course. The investing public is still holding tightly to their long-term resolve, but much of the buying power at the institutional level seems to have largely run its course, in our view. That leaves us with the opinion, as tenuous as it seems in the face of this market melt-up, that this is indeed a bear market rally and one that may well have run its course. We have “round-tripped” from the beginning of the year and there is real excitement in the air about how these last nine weeks represent evidence that the economy will begin expanding sometime in the second half of the year.
Growth pickup will likely prove transitory While it is likely that headline GDP will improve as inventory withdrawal subsides and fiscal policy stimulus kicks in, our view is that whatever growth pickup we will see will prove to be as transitory as it was in 2002, when under similar conditions the market ultimately succumbed to a very disappointing limping post-recession recovery. So yes, there may well be some improvement in the GDP data, but it is based largely on transitory factors. We strongly believe it is premature to totally rule out the end of the vicious cycle of real estate deflation – residential and now commercial – that we have been experiencing since 2007. Balance sheet compression in the household sector will continue to pressure the personal savings rate higher at the expense of discretionary consumer spending. This is a secular development, meaning that we expect it will last several more years.
Chances of a re-test of the March lows are non-trivial. To reiterate, it seems to us likely that the risk in the market is actually higher today than it was back at the same price points in early January, and we say that with all deference to the stress tests (which given the less-than-dire economic scenarios, along with the changes to mark-to-market accounting, were destined to reveal healthy results). While the consensus seems gripped with the burden of trying to decide if there is too much risk to be out of the market, we actually still believe that the chances of a re-test of the March lows are non-trivial, especially if the widely touted second-half economic rebound fails to materialize...
The data flow is less relevant this cycle than in the past. This was not a manufacturing inventory cycle, which makes the data flow less relevant than in the past. Real estate values are still deflating and the unemployment rate is still climbing; these are critical variables in determining the willingness of lenders to extend credit. And as we just saw in the Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Survey, while there may be a ‘thaw’ in the financial markets, banks are still maintaining tight guidelines. In fact, the weekly Fed data are now flagging the most intense declines in bank lending to households and businesses ever recorded.
The best case is that this is a bear market rally. All of this has not precluded an elastic band bounce from an egregiously oversold low in the S&P 500, and perhaps we will even test the 200-day moving average of 960 (as the 10-year note yield and NASDAQ just did). But we still do not believe what we are seeing fits the hallmark of a new bull market. In our view, the best case is that this is a bear market rally, but one that clearly has more legs than its predecessors this cycle.
Regarding the housing bubble and the .com bubble, I think there is a difference. Housing actually is something concrete, while the .com's IMHO flew on what people felt they had the potential to be.
Lexi
Did you notice the HOD yesterday was higher on FAS than today, yet FAZ made a new low today? Apparently no rhyme nor reason to this.:)
The prices have dropped, but not to the degree that they went up and yes, I've protested as well as many other people. In addition, we own a small orange grove. In order to shaft us further, the did an aerial and found out a small amount of the acreage wasn't in trees (due to it being low and poor drainage) and they took the agricultural classification off of that area which jacked up the taxes.:)
LOL This is a beauty:
Morgan Stanley prices a 146 M share common stock offering at $24/share ...It's now $27 .
Wells Fargo prices 272 M shares at $22/share....it's 26.52 and up over 1.80.
What's wrong with this picture? You'd think people would sell if they thought shares were being increased.
LOL This is a beauty:
Morgan Stanley prices a 146 M share common stock offering at $24/share ...It's now $27 .
Wells Fargo prices 272 M shares at $22/share....it's 26.52 and up over 1.80.
What's wrong with this picture? You'd think people would sell if they thought shares were being increased.
Dave,
Apparently I'm not the best at timing for I've felt for awhile that things were going to retrace big; however, there's an old saying, "Don't fight the fed" and the fed really has been doing all they can to prop up the market. However, it appears to me they've used most, if not all, of their bullets. You've got to know if you get out at all that things just aren't good. People can talk about the improvements that are happening, but the people I'm talking with in real life just aren't seeing it. Many more houses are being sold, but you have to ask yourself at what price? Frankly, I feel with so many people hurt big time and finding they have to sell their property the vultures are circling to pick the bones, absolutely giving the seller the shaft and the buyer trying to benefit himself at the expense of others. I own several pieces of property. One piece is made up of four lots and is in the city. After the price was goosed during the runup in real estate, I found on one piece my taxes were increased FOUR TIMES! Of course now that the value has dropped, it surely didn't go down to the original price it was before the big up. Fortunately, all the various properties I own are paid for so I don't have to worry about that. However, now I find myself with a nice sized property tax bill I have to pay each year. I would just bet that a lot of people in my situation would sell some to get out from under it. Not me...I'm keeping it all and have gone back to work part-time.
Lexi