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Sold BEE @ 1.8
I agree. The FDIC had to make a choice. They were afraid of WAMU failing, so they got together with JPM who they knew was game and did the deal -- they took the chance that they'd have to insure $310bn of deposits off the table while at the same time giving JPM lifeblood to keep them well capitalized. JPM got the juice and got into a lot of markets it had wanted. While I think their fears about WAMU's stability were misplaced, that was the decision they made and the markets felt the consequences.
And, it only had to put down $1.9bn UP FRONT to do it.
FDIC made a decision in a crunch. I think they and JPM knew it was going to come back eventually, but if they could delay it long enough, what's $10, $20bn when you're out of crisis and have had time for the market to heal?
I don't think the FDIC will be made to pay any reparations. I think JPM will either have to hand over assets to WMI or provide reasonable payment with interest and potentially damages. I said up-front, because I fathom the reason JPM has *SO* MUCH cash right now is that they're expecting to "finish paying" with a nice settlement.
Settlement does seem most likely to me. Something nice and quiet for JPM and FDIC, and the creditors get paid, shareholders get at least some equity.
Note: I hold both P's and U's.
Watch out, shorts. Cover before you get hurt.
.15 .. SHALLOW SUPPLY @ THESE LEVELS!
Load up while you can..... Less than 1 week!
KaBOOOMMMM!!!!!!!!!
GGWPQ just gave me a great payday!
BEE has handled itself nicely from earnings. Might consider swapping out here.
Definitely. When she talks, I listen.
MW never more bearish in a year!
Expects massive mortgage rate hike soon, up to 10%+. Expects to see the next leg down in not too long..
Meredith Whitney on CNBC
Hey everybody, lets play a game!
GET SHORTY!!!
I don't think THJMW will hold off her decision on the handover very much longer. With the DC judiciary giving the nod to bankruptcy court, this next omnibus could be HUGE. Better get your tickets while they're still on sale.
Holding a good block of WAMPQ's for the long-run, and have been accumulating WAMUQ's for trading since the deferral put these things back on sale. PQ's for the big gains and resilience a preferred share provides, and UQ's in case this thing shoots the moon.
Next court date: 11/24/09
Less than 2 weeks away!
Watching WAMPQ and WAMUQ closely. Got a load of P's in the pocket, and a grip of U's for trading. Time to load the boat, because if it goes, it's GOING. This and GGPWQ are using up the largest part of my risk capital right now. Looking for big winners. Already up 700% on the P's.
What pisses me off is that they took ALL of the assets, and didn't have to take any of the liabilities! I mean, OK, if the balance was $8bn, and things truly were bad, and JPM was gonna take the whole shebang... if the diff between assets and liabilities was $8bn and they had paid $1.9bn (paying 25 cents on the dollar) that STILL would've been a great deal.
But no. FDIC sold JPM all the assets, and didn't make them take any of the liabilities. For $1.9bn.
Pretty ridiculous.
THE LAW IS THE LAW: US loses BearStearns-Case
ROFL
ThinkorSwim also has a great iPhone app. CNBC app is rather good. Also I like FX360 and Forex OTG if you're into FX.
Other good apps:
Bloomberg (of course)
LoanShark (useful amortization)
1cast (a lot of video news sources)
RateWatch (nicer way to get some rates than going to WSJ.com)
StockCharts (plenty of technical charts. dont use this much anymore since ToS does good charts)
TimeValue (time value of money calc)
Options! (blackman/scholes model)
I've still got mine.. going to see how the rest of the week plays out.
Nice find.
would've been "motion passed", "motion denied", "ruling deferred"
I suspect we have another delay on our hands.
thats a paste from twitter. "less than a minute ago" currently 4 mins ago.
Watching WAMPQ, WAMUQ for imminent courtroom news
Yes, holding BEE. Mind you though I have a very light position, not much skin in that game. When I put on a starter position, it started falling, so I never legged in my 2nd and 3rd fill. Glad I didn't. Risk management is a beautiful thing.
If I did have a full position on right now, eg if I had decided to start buying around 1.5's and was loaded up now, I'd probably take off that 3rd leg right now just to lighten up in case of a negative surprise / poor outlook.
Since I only have 1 leg in though, the earnings are a catalyst for me. I'll either sell it all or buy in the next leg of my position and continue accumulating.
Either way, the cat's coming out of the bag tonight.
It is time.....
http://www.rallymonkey.com/oldvideo.php
GGWPQ spiked to 4.3 earlier-- supply could be very shallow at these levels and the price ready to rise.
nice spike to 4.30 - looks like supply at these levels has become shallow!
sell short is usually an option in a trading platform.. buy, sell, sell short, buy to cover. don't need stock options to short. short interest is shares short. for options, you look at open interest on contracts and the total put to call ratio.
BEE: It's already had its ass kicked. I bet it'll be safe to hold thru earnings. Could even have a strong pop off news and outlook. It did recently sell some property in Mexico, so guidance for next qtr could be good.
bad timing. ignore it until next monday and see where it is. two things this week which may be what the judge is waiting for before the ruling.
Hi Highlander,
He's not my enemy, I just lost respect for him and strongly disagree with his methods. I too believe in the freedom of speech, and use this right when I call him out as a sanctimonious, disingenuous manipulator.
By the way, thank you for your service, my friend. My dad was awarded the bronze star for his service in Vietnam. I truly and humbly respect this country and all that it stands for, and the people who risk their lives to defend it.
I just have a hair trigger when it comes to Michael Moore, and my adrenaline was up when I wrote my original post as I watched today's market action.
Yours,
dam
Govt doesn't tell you its raining when they're pissing on your head. ;)
I guess what I really don't like about MM is that he tries (and generally succeeds) in carrying off this "peoples' man" straight-talk image which easily hooks the overly credulous.
I guess in general I should be thanking Michael Moore. The more people that see through his crap and realize that they must be diligent and skeptical always.. regardless of how they "feel" about someone or how trustworthy they may initially appear to be.
So thank you Michael Moore for being a charlatan and serving as a fine example of why skepticism is an important skill with practical applications.
Michael Moore has compromised journalistic integrity. I was initially interested in his work after seeing Roger and Me years ago, but then I saw bowling for columbine (about a topic, 2nd ammendment rights, that i know something more about) and smelled a rat. A little research, and I knew all I needed to know about Michael Moore.
Don't piss on my head and tell me it's raining.
He's a boldfaced liar and manipulator.
Fuck him.
Professor Geaux, what're your thoughts on BEE?
I just have a small starter position from 2.63's. Thinking about adding the other half of my position at these levels.. but I was wondering what you thought about that. The stock has busted downward thru previous supports -- do you think BEE is still something with potential, or should I wait until it shows signs of life before increasing my position?
Thanks in advance,
Dam
I've got some WAMPQ; watching closely. GLTA indeed!
Some ideas for a junior year reading list.
- The Complete Turtle Trader (Michael Covel)
Great treatment of risk management and position sizing based on volatility. This was a game-changer for me less on their trending system, but more on how to manage my edge and how to deal with an account of variable size and how to conceptualize and abstract the risk from the absolute. The book isn't long - packs a lot of value IMHO.
- Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets (John J. Murphy)
The bible of technical analysis. Can be a little dry, but anyone that's read Stikky will be well-served to dig into this book to get the real nitty-gritty and a much wider swath of technical knowledge.
- Reminiscences of a Stock Operator (Edwin Lefevre)
A classic read about Jesse Livermore. Historical context, but the book does spend a lot of time thinking about the psychology of trading and has a lot of trading stories that still reflect some of the market today. Real tape readers, they were. Talks about how they watched the price action and tested the market strength before making plays. Overall it's a short read also. Very recommended.
IMHO it's still a bad thing. Too far, too fast.
She's the one who got away for me. I remember passing it up a few times around .3 and .4.. figured it had run too far already and was "toppy." I was late to the party, sure, but it turns out the party was still just getting going!
Ah well... GGP/GGWPQ and WAMPQ have both treated me very well.. its just that CEMJQ has done so magnificently.
Very interesting. I often neglect weekly charts... will have to start peeking at them more often in my selection process. Thanks for sharing your wisdom with us. :)
Well done, Geaux.. Like a boss!
GGWPQ closed above prior resistance. In big.