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Ernie,
Can you point me to an inflation adjusted historical chart of POG? Thanks.
Prechter Calling for Crash
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The jury's still out on the latest wiggle of the Elliott Wave. And although some angry readers disagree, we believe the theory merits watching.
Recently, I noted that the Gainesville, Ga.-based Elliott Wave Financial Forecaster was arguing that the Dow Industrials' chart action was making a classic bearish "diamond" and that a break below 10,300 would be very bad news -- that is, the blue-chip barometer would be poised to head several thousand points lower. (See Oct. 3 column.)
The Dow duly did close below 10,300, and for a moment EWFF's call looked very good.
Wednesday's 128-point bounceback hasn't totally erased that. For example, Dow Theory Letter's Richard Russell complained that the market's breadth "was not impressive."
But it couldn't have been a great day for Bob Prechter, head of the Gainsville Elliott Wave industry. Under the heading "DRAMA AHEAD!" his Elliott Wave Theorist had put out this alert at 9 a.m. on Wednesday:
"The wave two bound in the Dow ended four trading hours ago. Wave three down is beginning. Expect the market to develop into a crash, with panic increasing into Halloweeen and then culminating within hours. From that low, the market should stage a dramatic three-day bounce for wave four and then resume declining to lower lows for wave five. This decline should leave 10,000 behind for good. Investors stay in cash; speculators stay short. Gold and silver are reversing downward and will not provide sanctuary from crash."
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B0543F5C6%2D01B6%2D4B6F%2D84AC%2D4B24AB24D5E6%7D&am...
Thanks AJ.
What's next for the TNX now that the gap is filled?
AJ,
Lurker dropping by with a question. If oil tops out here around $58, wouldn't that be a triple top? And I know you don't do triple tops. Or has too much time elapsed since the double top in the spring for that to be in play? Thanks.
My "fast dump" indicator hit yesterday. Unfortunately I was on the road and didn't make it to the toilet in time. It's hell getting old.
Anybody else notice that the Ndx 50sma crossing over the 200sma to the downside marked the beginning of this rally? Strange.
And how do you discern when to take them seriously? It's all just propaganda to me.
NDX is bouncing off the lower trend line of the January down channel. If we sell off at end of the day again we could go as low as 1504 and still be in the channel.
Caveat on Dell: Their support has been moved overseas and my personal experiences with them since are terrible.
Hi Justa,
Did you get your buys on the daily NDX and Comp?
Bulldawg
Teaparty,
How short term are you thinking? A few hours? Days?
Thanks.
Zeev,
Pardon me but I did not quite understand your response. Are you saying today's put/call numbers are good enough for a retrench?
Zeev,
Are the current put/call ratios at levels that you consider good enough for a bottom that will carry us on the final leg up before the Nassacre?
Thanks.
From a longer range perspective, isn't what we are seeing in this pullback simply a re-test of the breakout above the Jan04 high?
AJ,
Do you feel this correction is the re-awakening of the bear or do you still maintain that bears are doomed for 2005? Thx.
Aj,
Would you agree that formation looks more like a cup and handle formation than a inverse h&s, with the handle still being formed?
Bulldawg
Justa,
That is not correct. When a fund shareholder elects to have dividends reinvested, their dividends earned and received by the fund can be reinvested immediately.
Look at the last two weeks of October and the first week of November.
Justa,
You said:
"And their funds will reinvest (if that is their choice) when their funds declare their distributions. I think that is more toward the end of year".
Why would fund managers have to wait to invest the earned dividends until after they declare the distribution to the fund shareholders? Doesn't sound right to me.
Damn, that's almost as many women as I've bagged in the same period of time.
Did I ever tell you that I'm Wilt Chamberlain's second cousin and Bill Clinton's nephew?
AJ,
Your sense of justice is unmatched. If Rehnquist has to step down I think you are ready to fill his shoes.
Bulldawg
I second the motion. How about mud wrestling?
Justa,
Looks like that diamond formation on VXO failed today. I'm not very familiar with diamond patterns, but doesn't that imply that VXO will move lower? As always...
Thanks,
Bulldawg
Justa,
Are you expecting a pullback to lower lows for the year or a pause that refreshes?
Thanks,
BullDawg
M3,
What is the 3/3/3 Crash Call? I haven't read about that one yet.
Thanks,
BullDawg
I agree, as long as the news suits my position. I would guess MSFT news didn't suit yours.
On that first chart of the NDX on Frank's web page, he is using linear scale rather than log. FYI, when I drew that line on my own chart this evening in linear scale, it showed today's candle fell under the rising support line from the Oct 2002 lows. Not promising.
Don't most technicians use log scale on longer term charts?
Thats a good one for a punk band. Sounds painful and "pissed" off.
Yeah that one sticks. We used to play one of their tunes. Another band name I liked, and the band was pretty good too, was the Screamin Cheetah Wheelies.
I don't know if DLR used drugs but he definitely drank heavily at times. I never saw him live but I have friends who saw him around '80 and he was so trashed at show time he would forget the lyrics to the songs. Party on.
Aj,
Audioslave consists of Cornell and the three guys left from Rage Against the Machine after Zack de Lawhatever quit the band. Cornell is greatest rock vocalist all-time, IMHO. By the way, I play in a classic rock band for fun and I got the name for our band from your reading your disclaimer one day when I was lurking. Void Where Prohibited. I wanted to use Spontaneous Amputation but one of the bleeding hearts in the band thought it might hurt someone's feelings.
I lurk your thread quite often. I think it's the best on ihub. Thanks for sharing your thoughts.
Or better yet, buy the debut CD from Audioslave. Chris Cornell's (Soundgarden, Temple of the Dog, solo, now Audioslave) spot in the RnR Hall of Fame has already been reserved. Fourteen songs on the CD and every one of them rock.
Justa,
Nice short. What kind of time frame and target are you looking to go long for?
Thanks.
I'm not sure what BSD and NFS are, but if they have anything to do with Java, then they suck. I don't like Microsoft either but Java sucks, performance wise.
Sylvester,
Not trying to dis you. I found his article entertaining, but overly negative. Nowhere in his "dream" does technology contribute to the advancement of mankind, only it's downfall, which is contrary to history. By the way, if all of this genetic/biologcal altering becomes a reality, why couldn't we alter people to be morally perfect? Yeah, I know. The last guy in charge wouldn't alter himself and would take over the world (i.e. Bill Gates). By the way, Bill Joy didn't invent the internet.
Lawnmower Man Meets Sadaam? That article has so many holes in it, logically speaking, that a bad high schoool debate team could embarrass him. I think the guy might be "retiring" from Sun because he's lost his marbles. What he speaks of might be possible one day, but in 30 years? I haven't read any of the authors he speaks of, and they may have presented this idea before, but it occurred to me that such advancements in science might present us with the ability to make each human being, born or unborn, morally and intellectually perfect. Imagine that. The human race being one step short of Jesus Christ. I'm sure Isaac Asimov would have written the novel if he had lived forever, human or robot.
Horsegirl,
That's amazing. What was Jimi like?
Wahz, Thanks for the detailed explanation. eom
Wahz,
If the chances of 1360 holding are small, why resist the urge to get more bearish? Seems contradictory.
Thanks,
BullDawg