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I'm not sure why you suspect that. An ascending wedge can indeed lead off a move in e-wave, as in a leading diagonal, but its very rare. But I see no evidence of one here.
The NDX low came later than non-tech and has potential to be consructive, but the non-tech low of May 12 (as measured by the $XMI) has lead to a sideways jell-o flag. Basic TA and e-wave says the low is not in for that index. If that's the case then you have to think that tech is on a similar cycle.
Certainly there are consolidations building along the recent lows everywhere I turn. In general these are bearish but you never know so watch the direction of the break of course. But I am leaning towards lower lows coming. With all these flags it looks pretty cut and dry to me right here
I can't believe how sick Citigroup looks. All the banks had some kind of bounce but that one just laid there like a slug.
Oh I've seen it many times.
when you rent a video, you
enter into a sacred trust!
Sadly I can recite many skits by memery.
LOL! She got so sick of me that she went to Toronto for a month visiting a girlfriend. So I'm catching up without catching sh*t-g
tried re-wiring her, tried re-firing her
You really think max-pain means anything with such small O/I? Personally I don't. Interestingly 532 is actually where I measure the iii of 3 stopping. In any event a iii of 3 down is real unmistakable so we'll know pretty soon.
I have spent about 12 hours this weekend looking at charts and I am quickly losing faith in any idea that we are going to see new highs in the indices.
Russell looks like it may be in a iii of 3 down here on the dailies doesn't it aj? Very worriesome chart for the bulls IMO. It should continue down hard here if that's the case.
Yes, all in good fun because none us really know shit.-g
No idea what's going on in the slightly larger wiggles. Hey when I look at the SMH, I think there's a chance we are already into the next impulsive up.
You think that NDX gap closes before the next move up?
I much prefer the wiggle talk on your thread aj, keep the dirt off my patio!-g
My wiggle favoured for tech has a sideways correction in progress off the NDX high. Early next week I expect a ramp in the 'c' of b of that flat and I suspect it makes a new marginal high or at least visit that recent high. Then we may get a tankaroni in the C of said flat.
One other observation, its been a week since that April 2 gap. You know what they say about gaps that don't close within a few days.
I see the US$ heading into a a 'iii' of C up here on the dailies. The target is 93 before a potential turn back down. As such I do not think its time to enter the miners quite yet.
A break below 88.15 invalidates that read.
You know me aj, I never use the price low as a starting point for my wedges, I don't believe that point is relevant to the coil of a wedge.
Speaking of wedges, I posted this on SI:
http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=21322&u=shack&a=ShackPack&id=335
Going for entry tomrrow.
He ain't gonna raise rates based on one jobs report. But the way the $TNX looks it may be a moot point, market will do it for him.
Not sure on the NDX vs. COMP question but I do believe that your middle dt line will act as declining support on any pullback. I find that some higher support levels were created around the market today.
I'm listening to a Columbus,OH radio station online right now, the Avs-Blue Jackets game. Big ramifications for my Canucks.
I love the internet.
Just posted the same. Bully wants to be above that line.
I only use log. Not sure why you have it right on that line as it is clearly above by my chart. Here's my pretty picture:
http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=21247&u=shack&a=ShackPack&id=335
How does that reconcile with the Dow and SPX? Shouldn't we be moving together in similar counts?
Well we are only talking wiggles here and no I don't believe everything on's the exact same cycle down to that degree.
I dunno what vehicles you're trading these days but lots of shit looks like its just gettin' going. Nice inverse H&S on GE, gapped up over the neckline.
BTW, I have us well back over that rising support (on a gap no less!). You using log scales?
Volume this week was down from last week's, so if we're in a iii of 3, shouldn't the volume reflect that in the 2nd week?
I think we only entered the 'iii' today. I have today has the second highest volume day of the year on the Q's. Not enough?-g
Most of this week was low volume jell-o.
I see no way the rise this morning is a 'b' of '4'. The simplest count is that 5 waves off the low is complete at this morning's high (pull up an hourly).
I will say that there is a possibility that said 5 waves was all a '3' if you allow the impulse to have begun at the March 23rd low, not the March 24th low. Yeah, the wiggle '2' wave made an itty bitty new low but it was only by a tenth of a point.
Its a pure EW call, and its just a potential count for now. As for Zeev, I wouldnt expect 2063 to hold for very long.
I have that line down in the 1430 area still, a fair bit from here. I would expect it to get probed on the next wave down.
Just for wiggle fun, I have a suspicion as to where we are.
It is a call on the COMP which I believe is indeed in a c of B up as you have said since Feb 24. If that is the case it is likely taking the form of a wedge and will see one more new high to the 2070-2075 area after some early weakness on Monday. But then I do think we will get a brother swoon down (the 'C') to the feb 19 dump.
I think the COMP will see 1950 before any sustained move up.
Yeah, pretty close. I bought them at .35 and .40, trading near $1 now. Not common I can assure you.
All this while the market weakens.
I certainly expect a pause at $37.75 which I have as the first real resistance. But the area I really care about is $38.50 which should we get there, will confirm that the impulsive down off Nov 7 is truly dead.
Quite a short interest there I notice, some recent downgrades too. Seems like a lot of bearish sentiment towards the stock.
Hopefully the shorts help us along here.
We've been follwoing KKD over on SI aj. Bunch of us went long today including myself. Here's the pretty picture from a couple of days back:
http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=18452&u=shack&a=ShackPack&id=335
Since then we of course of broken the wedge as you indicated. Seems to be muchos consensus though, always a worry.
I would add there is some thick short interest.
Hard to not look at Friday as a reversal. The volume was quite large and the SOX actually closed higher than the Thursday close. We're also coming off some 2+ readings on the NYSE TRIN. Pretty nice recipe here for a long (of which I am now one). I think the SPY even put in a bullish engulfing.
The question is whether we see new highs or not, I favour yes, but if we do then the SPX and SOX will be completing wedges on the daily charts.
you're going to have to once and for all accept the fact that you're "smart money"!
LOL! Maybe...but the people I'm reading sure aren't.
Timberrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr........-g
Agreed on the TNX, next couple of days decide it for me.
I am on your program aj, shorting the bounce. But I have to say that after reading a pile of boards tonight, it sounds like everyone is. I got rid of some poots today just in case.
I feel crowded.-g/ng
I am less concerned about the wiggles. When I look at the weekly spx I see a clean 5 waves off the March lows and now the big down week. I think we're done but I have one bullish scenario which has the recent high as a 'b' high of a large '4' wave which began in June. If that's the case we are still going to 950 before this correction is done and the
'real' wave 5 can start.
My interpretation is that the b that took us to a new high was actually 5 of C
Make no mistake mw, that's my favoured too. Gotta have an alternate in my back pocket though.
As for the wiggles off the highs, beware of 4's that are shorter and weaker than the 2. Odds are the wave is subdividing and we will be accelerating to the downside.
Lets play it by ear mw. Suffice to say they pretty much have to buy it from the git-go (notwithstanding a headfake down) or we will fall out of today's declining wedge, very bearish.
If MOnday is bought hard, there is potential for a complete abc flat off the Sept 8 high. This likely means another high is coming. Alternatively we could as you say go up in some Jell-O, but the near-term trend would be up and worthy of some longs.
I'm pulling for the grizzly here, still have quite a few puts.
Simialrly, I don't see any other elliott count off the highs on the bear side except that we are indeed in a iii of 3 down since yesterday and today was a very minor(ii). That projects to the very low 1200's before any bounce worth playing emerges.
Bully has to save this thing Monday or its lights out IMO.
That's fine, I see them too (I do keep track of a few typically extraneous indicators-g)
As a trader its a great spot. We'll likely have confirmation of an intermediate trend on Monday and we can profit. Time to look at charts for the best looking longs as well as the best looking shorts. Throw one out on Monday.
Sure...on a 6-min basis though, not sure if that means much.
I have have no favoured here either way, but I will likely have one by 10 am on Monday.
Its a tought spot for a short too. Here's that wiggle map of the wedge:
http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=15278&u=shack&a=ShackPack&id=335
Monday will be a great trading day methinks.
Yes, they usually headfake first. I am a cautious bear here. I do believe a break back up and the pattern in play is a flat off the Sept 8 high. My scenario would then be that new highs are on tap.
We break down and stay down, the abyss awaits.
Wedges wedges everywhere. We closed right on the intraday lower wedge line. We are going to bust hard on Monday, which way remains a crapshoot for me now.
Yes, that's my count. Downside volume has been the key clue for me this week.
Hard not to like the Avs but I find they lack depth on D and goaltending is certainly a wildcard. I suspect they'll solve the latter problem through a trade if things get ugly early.
Stars will miss Hatcher and Sydor BIG TIME. I like Numminen but you're picking him up on the downside of his career. Turco will have to be even better. I think they're still good enough to win the West but they are weaker than last year IMO. Canucks are essentially the same, which may be enough if the kids continue to develop.
Was at a pre-season game last night, ugh what stinker.
All of them for now.
I'm not sure I buy the happy family theory on retests of levels based on dates. Big stretch IMO but I'm no expert. Certainly I defer to you. Interesting concept actually and it seems to work for you.
As you know I am EXTREMELY bearish here. Just dig into some stock's charts. We have had major breakdowns in many semis, bios, retailers, the $RUT, and the trannies. Lines are cracking everywhere and the trend looks to be reversing.
At best we could be in some Jell-O and I would entertain this idea more seriously except that I rarely see high volume sell-offs at the beginning of Jell-o. When we had some technical cracks in the summer I suspected Jell-O because of the exact opposite of what's happening down vis-a-vis volume. This is solid heavy selling right now as we have just had a second distributon day in a row.
The way the futes are trading right now I would bet tomorrow is yet another.