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Your view is that you think the stock will go down. Your basis seems to be that you think the stock will go down. That's it. And you think that is valuable?
An overview of their products is here: http://www.ipwireless.com/products/
They sell both infrastructure and network access devices for TDD UMTS, which I understand contains some Q IP. Do you have any details on what pass-through rights they may enjoy?
And IPWireless is still not on Q's list of authorized suppliers.
Oh good, new fold-style phones. Glad to hear they're not those awful clamshell-style things.
>>But Motorola is releasing a strong lineup of phones for Christmas as well. And the introduction of some new Nokia phones has been delayed until early next year.
"The hot (Nokia) products aren't going to be there in the fourth quarter," Hoffman said.<<
The 3G market is still a game of leapfrog. Still no clear winner(s). One or two quarters does not a game make. Just ask LG and Samsung.
Isn't it nice, though, to have Nokia part of Q's value chain?
And isn't it nice to have the market starting to move?
Excellent point, Biz. Chapq over on SI has a great deal of insight into the China fog. You might want to run your query by him.
Jim and Slacker,
From my perspective the "distortion" in the tables has little to do with the downlink speed comparisons. It's what's not displayed that makes it a little slight of hand. What's not there is uplink speeds. The guild is happy to compare HSDPA with DOrA on the downlink (and fudge some). Not so anxious to compare on the uplink. Why? We all know it's because they still need HSUPA to solve that piece. DOrA will do that for CDMA operators, and it seems likely, at this point, that it will reach market first.
p.s. Yes, I know, the paper was on HSDPA, so they could rightly claim that it wasn't supposed to address uplink.
A strange article you posted from "Wireless Design and Development Asia". The source of the info is apparently a report from Visant Strategies, but their report has a significant difference. It projects mobile WiMax is 3 to 5 years away, while the version in your post says 2 to 4 years!! Some creative editing going on at Wireless Design and Develoment Asia"? Also notice the change of title from that in the Visant Strategies version below. As Arte Johnson used to say, "Verrry in-ter-est-ing..."
802.16/WiMAX: Fixed and Mobile Opportunities
Kings Park, NY - Although the WiMAX movement continues to focus on mobile opportunities, it is the traditional fixed wireless market that will remain the technology’s bread and butter through 2009, according to a new report from Visant Strategies. The worldwide wireless broadband audience of five million in 2005 is expected to grow by 40 percent yearly through 2010 and Visant Strategies believes WiMAX vendors will be perfectly poised to take advantage of this building market.
In the report “802.16/WiMAX: Assessment of Fixed and Mobile Opportunities” Visant Strategies foresees a $3.4 billion annual opportunity for fixed and portable broadband equipment by 2010. “WiMAX will account for 50% of that multi-billion dollar market by the end of the decade, with much activity in the 3.5 GHz band,” said report author Andy Fuertes. “The market for cable modem and digital subscriber line replacement is expanding today while WiMAX in the mobile network remains 3 years to 5 years away.”
The mobile WiMAX community is faced with political, technical and competitive challenges, the report finds, impacting time to market, which is paramount since the 802.16e specification is not yet finished. “Certified mobile WiMAX equipment will arrive during or after 2007 and mobile carriers typically test new technologies from 12 months to 18 months before implementing them throughout the network,” Fuertes said.
WiMAX will still become a factor in the mobile market in the years to come since most operators will not commit to additional major upgrades prior to 2009 and the standard is gaining support. FLASH-OFDM, TD-CDMA and future revisions of 3GPP and 3GPP2 will also play a role in both the fixed and mobile markets. Some of these platforms, especially FLASH-OFDM, already have considerable technical and time to market advantages over mobile WiMAX.
The study provides global and regional forecasts for fixed and mobile 802.16 and BWA base stations and CPE shipments and equipment revenues as well as fixed and mobile 802.16 and BWA subscribers and service revenues through 2010. 802.16 chipset shipments and revenues are also provided through 2010. For more information email info@visantstrategies.com, call (631) 544-6449 or go to www.visantstrategies.com.
http://www.visantstrategies.com/pr80216.htm
From Q's website:
Scalable Bandwidth Solution
In the near future, EV-DO systems will enable an all IP wireless network capable of scaling across a wide range of spectrum bandwidths (1.25 MHz to 20 MHz). Operators deploying such an EV-DO solution will experience higher data rates by aggregating up to fifteen 1.25 MHz carriers. The associated peak data rates are:
Forward link: 46 Mbps (20 MHz)
Reverse link: 27 Mbps (20 MHz)
The scalable bandwidth solution is based on proven EV-DO technology that preserves CDMA operators' network investments. Furthermore, the solution is suitable for new spectrum opportunities that will become available with wider bandwidths. The scalable bandwidth solution is backward compatible with existing EV-DO networks and can co-exist with deployed 1.25 MHz solutions.
http://www.qualcomm.com/technology/1xev-do/solution.html
What do you suppose is a "major public offensive"?
London mobile usage surges, but networks hold firm
Last Update: 1:37 PM ET July 7, 2005
By Nic Fildes
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
LONDON (MarketWatch) -- London's mobile networks suffered disruption Thursday following a series of explosions in the city, but overall, networks held up well despite a surge in use.
Vodafone Group PLC (VOD), France Telecom's (FTE) Orange, O2 PLC (OOM.LN), Deutsche Telekom AG's (DT) T-Mobile International AG (TMO.YY) and Hutchison Whampoa Ltd.'s (0013.HK) 3 all reported a sharp jump in call volumes as people scrambled to contact friends and relations.
A spokesman for Orange said the company carried twice the amount of calls than it would on an average Thursday morning, with the peak at 1000 GMT.
The higher traffic volumes and network operators' need to allocate capacity to emergency services pushed Vodafone's network to full capacity in London, a company spokesman said. Networks outside of London weren't affected, he noted.
"There was always going to be a spike as news broke, but it isn't possible to build capacity in anticipation of such a surge," the Vodafone spokesman said. There was a lot of congestion across the board, he noted.
While some callers temporarily couldn't get through, there was no actual damage to the mobile networks from the explosions.
"I'm surprised (the network) held up so well," said a person at one of the operators who declined to be named.
Spokesmen for 02 and Vodafone said the companies took steps to increase capacity and relieve congestion.
This involves changing codes, meaning the bandwidth needed to process a call is halved. While this impairs quality - with signals fading in and out and reverberations on the line - the call still connects.
O2 said emergency services have the priority around the Aldgate area of London, one of the blast sites.
Some police officers said the temporary overload hampered communications with services not using the emergency services network.
The U.K. police force has a new communications network built by O2 and based on the Tetra standard. However, it hasn't been activated yet. The fire and ambulance services haven't awarded contracts for new networks but are expected to announce the winner of the tender in the coming months.
These systems in the future will ensure better telecoms for emergency services, reducing congestion on the public networks. Such congestion will also ease as operators shift users onto the higher-capacity third-generation networks.
The operators rejected reports that there had been requests from the U.K. government to restrict use of the network. Bomb attacks on Spanish trains in 2004 were carried out using mobile phones as detonators.
A spokesman for BT Group PLC (BT), the U.K.'s largest fixed-line operator, said the company experienced above-average congestion, though there were no problems with the network.
Keep in mind that Altman IS a lawyer, but is not THE lawyer. That's Lupin. Altman is a very capable manager and a bongo negotiator, as well as one smart cookie. An excellent choice imo.
W-EDGE? This is hilarious...the GSM marketing wizards are at it again.
They may have slipped up a little though in describing EDGE as 2.5G. Have they forgotten that EDGE is 3G? It's 1X that's supposed to be 2.5G! LOL
EoNex?
Nokey's new DO partner?
U.S. accounting rule makers, after nearly a decade of dogfighting, are set to issue on Thursday a rule to force corporations to expense employee stock options starting in mid-2005.
Ugh. The potential for this hit is one reason Keitel has been conservative with his '05 projections, imo. Maybe the revenue gain due to the ending of the royalty sharing agreements in 2H05 will kick in to make this a much smaller bump.
Short term the hedgies are going to have some fun with it though.
Photos of the i645 (w/snap-on QWERTY keyboard) are here:
http://www.engadget.com/entry/6450235245623223/
Photos of the new Samsung i730 QWERTY Pocket PC Phone are at:
http://www.engadget.com/entry/5732841284005838/
Jim,
Thanks. Your numbers show EPS suffers just a few percentage points if Q "only" gets 25% of the WCDMA chip market vs. the stretch goal of 50%. That goal is a nice target, but is hardly critical to Q's success...as we all know.
Massive proliferation of WCDMA - using whoever's chips work - is the shortest path to success (investment success that is). With Q in the chip market, at any level, its competitors will be humping to equal or best them at every turn, which will drive the proliferation curve and Q EPS.
The "struggle" itself will expand the pie and drive profits. No?
/j
Jim,
One interesting thing you might do with your model (which has proven to be quite accurate over a number of quarters) would be to do a series of EPS projections for Q using a set of assumptions that would provide a picture of the impact of WCDMA market share. Such as (1) Assume Q sells NO WCDMA chips (but collects royalties on handsets) while CDMA2000 cooks along as expected, (2) Assume Q gets 25% of the WCDMA chip market, and (3) 50% of the market...their stretch goal.
The percentage change in EPS among the three cases may be surprisingly low to some.
Well okay, maybe it's too late on a Friday afternoon...
Best,
jack
deleted
Do you mean 40? <g>
If they would just grow up.
For those who may not have seen it, here are some pictures of the MOT A630. Form factor of the future?
http://www.motorola.com/motoinfo/product/images/0,,66,00.html
Also, here's the Nokia 6810.
http://www.nokia.com/nokia/0,,47780,00.html
Re: DV on hold?
What a nice validation of IJ's original strategy to bring HDR to market with DO! He understood perfectly how the data tech picture was going to evolve, and developed the right product on the right schedule to be there when the opportunity blossomed!
Remember all the "DO is DOA" nonsense some promulgated on this thread and others? They are now thoroughly discredited. And the DV ploy of the anti-Q crowd has been exposed; the operators are not biting.
Q's strategy is winning the day.
Oh, there will be those who'll remain in denial, but the course of the next few years has come very clearly into view.
Well, that's some real deep research from ML. Maybe they should publish the list of Q licensees along side it. Then ask what the values of NOK and ERICY patents are relative to Q. Who is contractually obligated to pay whom?
This looks more like a rehash of the wornout old crap about using the number of patents to determine what fraction of royalties one is entitled to. A lack of even the most rudimentary understanding of the patent picture reveals just how shallow the analysts are. I would imagine they have just about the same depth with other companies, as well. They are are sad bunch indeed. Is it any wonder that they are so easily manipulated?
Well, I think it was about 15% within a year, or something like that, wasn't it? So maybe an additional 5% of the market. But it's the low end stuff, so revenue wise it may be only two thirds of that, or there abouts, maybe less, maybe some more. So take away 3% of QCT revenues, say. Just ballparking, that's under 2% hit on Q's overall eps. Not much of a hit. That's if they do what they say they're going to do when they say they're going to do it. We'll see. They tend to talk big and deliver little.
From GS
CHATTER ABOUT MOT DEVELOPING OWN 1X CHIPSETS IS JUST THAT
There was chatter yesterday suggesting Motorola is designing its
own 1x chipset and QCOM's business with MOT is at risk. While we do
believe that MOT would like to drive down the cost of CDMA handset
development to bring it more in-line with GSM and it sees enabling other
chipset suppliers besides QCOM as a means to achieving this, we do not
believe MOT is designing its own chipsets currently. MOT SPS said
publicly it has no intention of designing a 1x platform solution but
does provide some RF and power management ICs that complement QCOM's MSM
5K/6K offerings. We believe concerns on 1x chipset competition are
overblown but are likely to resurface again either later this year or
early next as there could be handsets that get launched into the market
based on competing chipset solutions. QCOM's market share, however, is
still only likely to increase, in our opinion, with the MSM6XXX raising
the attach rate of its RF ICs and thus increasing its total dollar
content per handset. We believe MOT is set to launch four 1x phones
this year for the Americas, all of which will be based on QCOM.
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/msg.gsp?msgid=17818439