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Baird ? reiterates buy and target of $2
purchase money market ??
buying of homes and thus with that purchase a new mortgage
VERSUS ?? refinance?
seems to me - with rising rates - there is little refinancing - logical - so all the large F and F business is unusually good sales activity in the RE market ? (Unusual for how everyone says it sucks)
Motley Fool article (which always lead to -- Screw NKLA - we have the GOOD stuff for you)
Well
Again - no recommendation - but the LEAST negative I have seen in years
Almost - but not quite - blesses speculating
Summary - Where Motley has been more negative - and now is "greening" ? it is overall positive exposure - for speculation - IMO
caused the mess?
what is his name --- as there is one guy (of some "note") who continually blamed F and F for all of the mess and never stopped !!!
?
elaborate?
bring them up?
Interesting and logical that local banks know their local risk better
At same time - in the world of what makes big differences - I suggest on the whole - it has hard to believe that local banks --- in DOLLARS of BUSINESS - are 10% of the action of the big guys
YES
F and F got a ton of money
Where it went ?
But it seemed that on some "wins" the money went to everyone but F and F -- but on other wins (literally cases with TBTF Banks that lied) the money was attributed to F and F
(as I recall)
They - Treasury under POTUS direction - IMO can do more --
The most outrageous anti F and F equity holders action was done with the Congress passing HERA
But even without Congress - I do think the GOV (All executive branch) can declare the LP paid off . And for the politics of it - I encourage that the end of the LP (and the potential for 100B more shares at direction of GOV) ---- come with the announcement of exercising the warrants for 4B shares owned for the people to be sold to the people over 5 years to raise 100B to 150B to reduced deficit or .... if properly presented and gift wrapped - to help the working class who want to buy their first home (no giveaways but helping hand)
and where do you see the next progress step?
There should not be violence when protesting
Does not matter if the protesters are Black Americans or Trump Supporters
Violence is not a correct path to protest and make a point
hitting near 200 in Q4 would be a great year. For sure !!
what I would like to see is -- 200 produced (and sold) OVER the last TWO QUARTERS combined
that would be a run rate of 400 a year --- which would then be above the 250-300 they suggested or noted they hoped to achieve
A run rate of 400 a year and growing would give us a PPS in the 5-10 zone - IMO - or higher
as a non accountant but with some knowledge overall
I assume NKLA uses accrual accounting
So where there is a contract sale - on delivery NKLA would book either the income on the P and L then - or book an Accounts Receivable until the CASH comes in --- either way it is income for the quarter which is the key IMO
WOW
What a wonderful job !!!
A tip of the hat
I read - a bit fast --- and my take away is the articles suggest Europe for IVECO/EVECO and North America for NKLA and are silent on outside those two continents?
I can agree for one quarter -- if said last quarter or in some interview where the CEO noted the supply restrictions are hurting
But did not NKLA have an annual goal of either 250 or 300 ? at same presentation last quarter ?
(They say they can build 2500 with three shifts - so 800 with one shift. So - they can ramp up to say 200 a quarter if everything is in place (say next year?) But again - I thought - with that 800 capacity - they had suggested 65 to 75 a quarter overall for average on four quarters?
Market is happy - so - I am happy - but IMO they need to ramp up noticeably ----- and hopefully can do so if the parts issue is resolved?
If I recall Lamberth was the first Judge (told "us" to go to Congress not courts) and now is the penalty payment judge (with the way too restrictive instructions)
Seems he is busy (and he may be 81 ? years of age by now?)
A federal judge on Wednesday blasted a convicted January 6 rioter for downplaying the US Capitol attack and using the kind of revisionist rhetoric that former President Donald Trump often uses on the campaign trial.
“This cannot become normal… We cannot condone the normalization of the January 6 US Capitol riot,” US District Judge Royce Lamberth said while sentencing Taylor James Johnatakis to more than seven years in prison.
The judge warned of a “vicious cycle … that could imperil our institutions” if Americans, upset with future election results, resort to the “vigilantism, lawlessness and anarchy” that occurred on January 6, 2021.
Marketwatch (which is DOW so maybe WSJ soon?)
Super bullish headlined story of the production in Q1
Question - actually to anyone here
NKLA made a time limited ? (I think and think it was 5 years) divide of USA/CANADA for NKLA and EUROPE for IVECO)
Now that another poster notes the world - governments incenting -
Anyone remember or know what that split with IVECO was ----- how long and what it covered
SO SO SO much to do here in USA (CA being 95%) and then CANADA but is NKLA restricted from any place but "Europe" for some period of time?
Market likes this news
And they did produce more than last quarter
yet - based on all we read here and elsewhere - I thought the FY24 goal was 250 to 300 ------ and this production level is below that. The bad news - I HOPE - is the cost of air freight on still short supply on parts? If yes - can this grow to 60-70 a quarter
and bluntly - I want to know a ton more about Battery 2.0 ---- which battery - and how many done and when will all be finished - so NKLA can start selling a ton of never sold inventory
Hi
Yes
But is there one Republican who would vote for a carbon tax
Maybe 10 years ago 5-10%
Now zero and more zero
So not going to happen
I think the judges have been blind - dumb and wrong
I have not yet reached a conclusion that all of the judges --- there have been a lot - are GOV lackies
we need more visibility like this
The only logical way out now is to claim a political victory terminating the SPSPA claiming to have saved the housing finance system while protecting the taxpayers
Something like the above is my hope - politics - be it the last three months of BO (post DJT win) - the four years of DJT - or Biden or who ever wins in 2024
IMO it can be so declared
A fast but relatively complete read of this segment of time -- of WIKI - shows you are far more accurate than I was
I stand corrected
what will happen this year ?
lots - each day - it appears
I hope you are right
Here the LP is different. Here the LP came into existence because the "paper" (Senior Preferred "shares") that reflects the value of the GOV investment (per GOV and documents and HERA) does not trade or budge one share or one penny. So the phrase LP was chosen for that number which is the SP plus or minus changes
IMO it is different
but hey - I hope I am wrong wrong and wrong
and I do hope that some POTUS uses executive authority to wipe out the entire LP as paid ---- and I believe that is inside Executive Authority
1. BO did not rewrite everything - rather - inside HERA he changed the amount of dividend . IMO that seems to be within the Executive scope --- BUT NOT (as courts partially agreed) ALL PROFIT
2. There is a lot - IMO - that can be done by Executive Order without Congress. The best and IMO most important example is - POTUS IMO can declare the LP/SP paid and done with --- over
That is a $200B difference in capital at F and F on the road to "enough" . IMO that could kick our PPS to $5 over night
I agree there has been a taking and the courts were blind - dumb and wrong
Our company was taken from us and we have not been paid a penny - FNMA common was robbed
That said - the GOV can argue the legitimacy of the LP as F and F did owe some dividends and or some interest over 15 years
Do not shoot the messenger --- as I 100% blame the courts
nope
some of the decline in NKLA is ----- account (not NKLA) margin calls
Was a broker - adviser - retirement guru - say 20 years
Only a few accounts were on margin -- but it was a noticeable amount of accounts say 15 years ago (non IRA - individual stock - WHICH I steered away from)
So - to some degree maybe depending on the brokerage company stocks below ? 3 2 1 - do not provide a penny to your "available margin capacity" as they are not marginable. If an account is getting margin calls (that one day big hit and a spill over this AM?) then every stock that is marginable is in the margin side of the ledge and selling those provides 30-50% cash value to pay down the $$ margin call. BUT stocks at 3 2 1 which do not help re margin coverage are GREAT to sell as every penny from a sale is applied to the margin call. Thus they can be victims of a too high margined account now needing cash and the provide 1 for 1 cash. Normally that is only if the market is falling and falling - so it can be ending as I type
I like what you said -- but ?
to help me - and maybe others ?
How would you describe in English with legal entities noted WHAT you mean when you say we have an 8-0 Jury verdict ? Is KT saying we have a verdict only with FHFA and not Treasury ----- (and the logical but maybe not court approved answer is -- one and the same crooks)
?
Better or worse
right now - it is - I THINK -? All profit is kept in cash by F and F - (so called capital growth) - and the same (unlimited ?) amount is sent to Treasury BUT ONLY in the form of IOU. Nothing kept by F and F is not matched with an IOU?
At some point - full cap - the dividend is the lower of 10% or profit - per year (maybe measured each quarter) . And would that be in cash to Treasury or the same IOU approach? And would that mean that any profit >10% of value of LP -- is 100% kept by F and F with no IOU ?
DaJester
so you are "also" saying there was no breach with Treasury as they are not the defendant?
I do confuse easily --- but --- I assume the defendant was FHFA acting on behalf of F and F - so in essence F and F (which as separate companies issued common and JPS stock) were the real defendant
(even if in a contrived structure due to HERA)
If yes - what opportunities close or open up - in your opinion e.g. Sue FHFA for not putting our interests first when that is their job as they stand in for EQUITY of F and F ? Sue Treasury for bullying the BOD of ?
I do think - Musk is DEADLY afraid to compete in the USA with imports from CHINA
Personally - I like free trade but if CHINA has been GOV subsidized then some tariff protection is in order
But does anyone think Trump's 100% tariff on Chinese cars is not some sort of wink wink to MUSH
(re free press --- free speech - he likes it until it hits him (Don Lemon) then he shuts it down in 24 hours )
KT
step by step
what was the case - what was the plaintiff arguing - what did the jury decide
I think the case is far from your limited description
Agree
my phrase ---- if GOV wants it can say - 300 on the 191 - paid off - retired
I like the extension of logic - makes sense to me
"if the NWS is a violation of the good faith of the common shareholder agreements, then the Treasury should not be put in a position to further engage in predatory practices by using a mechanism of a profit "sweep" into the LP, very similar to the sweep in cash."
(and maybe with a different judge the "return" can be more meaningful)
From your lips and those of chocolate man -- to the MARKETS
I would love to close up for the day
Trend for last hour or so has reversed to the better
YES
all real cash sits with F and F
(those suggesting that the money is used for A or B or C are flat out wrong !!)
and the value of this $ of $ trade --- to us - to us - will become evident when we learn what the GOV does with the LP/SP
forgive or cut - we win as we keep ALL cash
push the obligation or ownership on our faces - we lose
WHY
I want that
but what makes the GOV "excuse" and forfeit their interest in the LP?
(to me its politics but by accounting the GOV has massive lien on us or better said HUGE ownership % if so desired (not talking the mini warrants for 4B shares but the LP for 50-100 B shares)
YES
but
while F and F pass every stress and larger stress test --- have enough capital
if and when the math that is used SUBTRACTS the entire LP from F and F Assets --- then F and F are in a negative situation that would require issuing more stock - IMO
all comes down to how is the LP "treated" at the very end
DaJester
yup - thank you
the idea --- notion - theory - that there will be some "return of LP" (my quotes) now that the Jury decided in our favor is very interesting
Let us dream a bit for the moment - assume that is correct ---- in my words - some of the LP is declared null and void as a violation of good faith --- when might that start ? With the entire smoke and mirror period that """ so called ended the NWS"" ? Such that F and F keep the cash and write an exact dollar amount IOU to the LP/SP --- but that IOU is tossed out?
Very interesting - Can you elaborate on your thoughts. I just posted how the smoke and mirrors end of NWS can be seriously great for common IF IF IF --- or be worthless of the growth in the LP is never diminished
a tiny inch or so - yup
but when did it start ? some retention of earnings ?
my old and older memory would be the "interesting" Mel Watt who got Mnuchin to agree to allow F and F to keep 3B a year??
I think that is right -----
The current - keep cash but write and IOU for exact same amount and grow the LP - is all DJT .
If the GOV at some point says LP (SP) is paid off due to 300B sent to Treasury -- that smoke and mirrors TRADE will be super beneficial to us common equity holders
If the GOV at some point converts the LP into common or some such similar action - then all the smoke and mirrors will be worthless (will have done nothing for common equity as the LP grew and grew each quarter)