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Its absurd that managed to screw this whole thing up, they easily could have raised the money through SEO back in Janaury 2017. Can't believe we're in this situation now, feel completely screwed :( I bet way to much on this, honestly didn't see it being this risky, very stupid of me.
Is there any chance at all, that they survive without completely destroying existing shareholders, I have a very hard time accessing what's going on, I kind of stayed positive, that CRG wavered the default due to MCAP etc., but with the most recent 8K I'm worried that no good news can come anymore? Thoughts?
It's getting absurd, but somethings gonna happen I guess over the next couple of days.
What happens today if they don't get another extension?
Does anyone have any good ideas on what will happen by October 31st, are we leaning toward partnership or BO. I think BO is unlikely, and would be very disappointing as they would really have disappointed shareholders, with the current price, even with two good weeks coming up and a high bid, max. price would be maybe 5/share. Very disappointing and sad that management haven't been able to play it out better.
No news doesn't exactly justify a 23% drop in stock price though.
Anyone who has a clue as to what the hell happened yesterday? I can't find anything that should have caused this, was it just a glitch or a bear raid?
This is great news, and the stock moves nowhere, I don't get it. Last couple weeks after it finally looked like we were going back up, the stock has been held near 1.70, everyday someone dumps it in the afternoon to keep it down, what the hell is going on!?!
I think you're right, moving up even on small volume, it's about to pop, and OptiMist, buyout if it happens, will be way above 5 USD, it will pop to 5 before any offer is on the table, I really prefer they keep at it, the Company can be worth so much more.
Another thing, revenues are looking fine, so I don't understand why people are so aggressive towards management, USD 34.5 million for first 23 weeks, with the expected growth from https://sites.google.com/view/trustat/prescription-numbers
2018 revs will be USD 116 million. Even without growth they would hit USD 91 million on current sales.
Shorts are 31.57% of float, they can't keep it down anymore, they need to start covering. Days to cover is 23.5!!! They use the same strategy on all small biotechs, because it works on 90% of them, they end up bankrupt, this will not, the product will actually be a success.
This could be a 1000% in a year kind of stock.
They are being traded as if they are about to go bankrupt, what in the world is going on? Seems like an extreme overreaction??
I noticed some have mentioned (on Yahoo) that the offering was due to the fact that the covenant mentions a minimum requirement for cash on hand in January, however I can not find the precise number that they are referring to, which is 128 million, can someone confirm that with a link? However, I can see that there is also a covenant that speaks of a minimum market capitalization, do we know what that minimum is, and whether that is currently being jeopardized? We are close to USD500 million at the moment.
Btw. how absurd is it that this thing goes down 10% on Friday on better than expected Q3 results on a volume of more than 20 million stocks, only to find out Monday that they are doing a secondary, sure no one knew before us....
Hey ClayTrader, where do you see this thing going if 2.44 holds?
Are we gonna close the gap in 2.07 back from 2011, is that what this is all about?
Shorts 40%, it's in small cap stocks like these I think there is a problem with short-selling, if it wasn't allowed to deliberately run a company to the ground, they would have had much better opportunities for financing. It will become very clear at some point that this is way undervalued, but because they had to dilute at such low levels, we don't get the full potential. After today I still see this trading at 8-10 USD by the same time next year, but it pisses me off that they had to dilute under 3 USD.
It’s absolutely absurd that they are doing this, as already mentioned they just raised 300 million in a loan facility, what a betrayal by the management, and what a mismanaged company, if they were actually sincere in optimizing shareholder value they would have sold it to the highest bidder, the task obviously is to big for them. They’ll dilute this POS to bits and pieces before we see any good results. What a sad outcome, so disappointing:(
Unfortunately it usually work the other way :(
Well, average weekly growth overall is 10.8%, for the last 10 weeks its 2.6%, so of course its getting lower. https://sites.google.com/view/trustat/prescription-numbers
However, IBS-C will add something, don't know how much, also we're still waiting for them to advertise more, so I don't see why 1% shouldn't be an absolute minimum fo next year?
Sorry that's 2018 and 2019 of course
I noticed one of the more recent reports from an analyst, was assuming revenues next year of USD85 million, that seeems like an extremely low ball figure. Assuming USD 1.25 million weekly sales by week 52 this year, as it looks like we're headed for, we just need 1% weekly growth to reach that USD85 million for 2017. 2% will get us to USD112 million for 2018, considering IBS-C approval is coming up in the beginning of the year that seems more than fair, assuming that 2% continues that will take us to USD300 million in 2019. However I think we will see higher numbers for both 2018 and thereby more than USD300 million for 2019.
Hey ClayTrader, thanks for the videos, good stuff. Do you have a target for where you expect to cash in?
No one agrees with me that the terms are good? This is a small cal biotech with one product!
Similar terms to that of Ironwood:
http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20160926005507/en/Ironwood-Closes-150-Million-Debt-Refinancing
Fuckin' awesome! Great terms!!!
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/synergy-pharmaceuticals-secures-300-million-123000864.html
Leaves potential for Buyout on the table.
Hell yeah!!!
I sincerely hope they won't dilute, when they say they'll give an update on financing in September, if that was the plan they could have done it back in January. Shorts sure got this thing right, but hopefully they'll start covering, so we can get up where this thing belongs, this is pure panick, unbelievable that its back down here, I was sure that after the recent run up, that it was last time we would see 3, and now we even went below 3. This sucks bigtime, all the while markets are in ATH, so much for risk/reward.
http://shortsqueeze.com/?symbol=SGYP
Why is everyone suddenly so negative? If it sells off on the Q2 released yesterday, it's absurd and an overreaction just because they missed on the EPS. This is not where the focus should be at the moment. The launch is going well and they have a great product in a market that is expected to grow a lot over the next 5 years. Forget about USD 8-9 /share, this thing belongs in the teens, and will get there next year once they have ramped up sales and gotten the next FDA approval. If they were gonna do dilution they wouldn't say, hey guys, let's talk finance in 4 weeks, then the release of a secondary would already have been out. As someone already mentioned, they could have done it all at 6 last time then, rather than doing another one now. They either do debt financing or they are working on an agreement with Big Pharma. SGYP is a hidden gem.
Why would they exclude the better drug? Is the fall today an overreaction? Was it expected that they would not be on this list?
Cantor initiated coverage with $11.00 price target
https://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/UPDATE%3A+Cantor+Fitzgerald+Starts+Synergy+Pharmaceuticals+%28SGYP%29+at+Overweight/12970319.html
I believe whether they go at it alone or not, there is plenty of upside in this stock!
Hey
I just took the 112 million from their balance sheet of June 30, and assumed they can get 75% for it.
Cell Genesys is extremely undervalued!
Number of Outstanding Shares 85.9 million
Exp. Year end cash $118-120 million
Outstanding Debt $119 million
Now hopefully $80 million of that debt will be bought back at a price between $25.6-32.0 million, remember this is still not for sure. We’ll find out at the latest 5th of December.
Exp. Year end cash will then be $86-94.4 million
And Outstanding Debt will change to $39 million
A little subtraction leaves between $47-55.4 million to the shareholders, assuming they’ll liquidate no later than the end of 4th quarter. This corresponds to cash of $0.547-0.645 per share.
In addition to this there is the matter of the PP&E, the most recent number I could find, is $112 million for PP&E, I guess they can get somewhere around $1 per share for PP&E, which is approx. 75% of the booked value (the $112 million).
Then there is the matter of Ceregene, I don’t think it carries a lot of value, since it’s only a 16% stake in a small company, at least it’s good that they started a new trial, Ceregene could be worth somewhere around $0.1 per share for Cell Genesys. Then there is the rest of the pipeline and a partnership with Novartis.
In my opinion it looks as we could get somewhere around $1.5-1.75 per share minimum. It could be even more, if the PP&E sells for more, or if the rest of the debt is sold for less than 1 to 1, or lastly it they get a good price for the rest of the pipeline.
There is also the scenario that they merger, but we just have to wait and see what happens. I assume these are the only scenarios, Liquidation, Buy-out or Merger.