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back to being short on the gold stock index
covered my short on the gold stock index - I'll probably go short again after lunch.
...and the only thing missing in my portfolio is fresh profits.
-- I'm out of all my long positions (at the open) and now I'm short the gold stock index.
K...talk to me on Monday ... I'm outta here...
...and IAC, take easy... be safe.
have you covered your short...?
Oh, btw - nice trading...!
K...I'm long energy after the gap down this morning - and check out UUU.TO - took a long position @ $1.93
nah... you didn't jinx anything - I need a trending market so I can buy and hold - otherwise I'll be trading myself into the poor house.
back to sitting on my hands
RECAP: to follow up, I covered my energy short for a slight loss (near flat) the daily suggests follow through for tomorrow.
SPX...as for the general markets, I'm starting to wonder if we're being set-up for another long consolidation (again). Could the markets drive up again tomorrow only to be sold down again...? I wonder, there's no real clear direction...we moved from being excessively oversold, to just neutral - a damned sideways market, one I hate to participating in. -- SIDEWAYS --
XGD...nice recovery, but no heavy buyers, just yet...some of the juniors recovered nicely - Anatolia was on a tear after being punished beyond all reason. I think gold is good to go...accumulation is key, and if I see the same accumulation that I was seeing in energy today I'd be insanely bullish. -- tentatively bullish --
US$...is in an uptrend -- bullish --
XEG...I hate to say it, -- bullish --
C$...working its way through a symmetrical triangle - another sideways consolidation - with US$ strength suggesting a recovery, will it take the C$ with it...? Will the C$ react positively to the money that's now flowing into the energy markets...? I'm thinking that the C$ will maintain a 20% discount to the US$ - this will dramatically help the oilsand producers - so a C$/US$ trade will be pointless because of bank policy. -- SIDEWAYS --
I see the bidding is heavy and the ask is dwarfed in comparison - will I hold this energy short overnight...?
If I do it will be with white knuckles.
Observations:
general markets - colapsing in the last hour - both the hourly and the daily charts read SELL.
gold - hollow red hammer - BUY
energy - my short is working - SHORT
we shall see if my view of things holds up in the final 10-minutes.
K...there's absolutely nothing wrong with working if you enjoy it - in fact there's nothing better for your health than joy ... fwiw, my energy short has finally come back to me - I originally paid $20 even, now I'm $0.22 in the money.
JOY...!!! <g>
I'm perplexed with my energy short - should of stayed away - I'm thinking I should stop out while my losses are minimal.
I should run a few errands myself.
later...
GE ... OTOH ... the hourly looks okay, it's the daily that's ugly - my guess is that if the markets survive the open tomorrow you may get another crack at it...the SAR is still beneath and the hourly charts shows a decent accumulation pattern. If there's buying at the close (that's similar to the SPX) I might look at it myself.
IAC - I've been trading fulltime for about 5-years, started trading in 1998 - my biggest gains happened on the Strictly: Drilling thread when gold bottom out and I went long Eldorado Gold, Bema and a few other speculations - after that run up I had enough money to tell the corporate world exactly what I though of rush hour traffic.
USO - a 6% up day...?
WOW....!!!
Lucky or good? Can I have both?
yeah, fuck yeah, absolutely...you've been around a hell of a lot longer than I, and you've done it without an 18-month forced sabbatical which I needed to maintain my sanity.
...as for GE - I'd sell, but knowing you that would be a contrarian signal. <g>
RT...? yup... from Stockcharts and from what they supply me with from etrade.
HED...and I'm kinda sorry I'm short at the moment - the markets are surprisingly strong.
trying to short energy today...ain't so easy...for every down tick their seems to be an incredible amount of buyers out there to generate an uptick...big volume that's surprisingly deep.
Dennis Gartman is on the front page of BNN for today.
http://www.bnn.ca/
What am I missing ?
The chart pattern...?
The chart pattern is the most important - then indicators...
either you're real good, or damned lucky - I would of of never slept with GE in my portfolio last night - but then I would of NOT enjoyed the 7+% that it opened with this morning.
...nice call...!
...just initiated a short on energy - actually about 10-minutes ago.
not sitting on my hands...?
IAC: some of the trades you posted today are fantastic-short gold post was timed perfectly-and that's why I thanked you - on the SPX, you're right GE is somewhat predictive of the direction of the market - so it is on my watchlist for the first time in my life.
so thanks...and below is a longer term look at what you were saying.
...and btw, I'm still 100% cash.
SPX is going back into the shit hole...?
--what an ugly close.
I'll have to check that one out-since I'm not following individual stocks that closely.
(edited and fixed) the chart for GE is similar to the SPX - even to the SPX levered to C$ - so it depends on where and how you use your stops - the first part of the long story is in the chart below - SAR dots below - price above the BB medium - a-b-c pattern.
yes, absolutely--I see the same thing...
thanks...eom.
....it will help with a squeeze....
yeah, that's one part of the answer--but I'm thinking the markets were more or less looking for a new story and he, Prechter, who IMO, is very good at giving interviews gave what the market needed in a timely manner.
IAC: yes, it's best not to react too quickly - as I was saying to Kastel yesterday, I'll let the market do the stopping out for me, because there is no point in trying to forecast the future, at least in the short-term...
My only suggestion at this point (and this is what I'm telling myself), if you're intent on going long (the markets that is) I'd look at buying it from a secondary pullback-a bounce off the 9-day MA is my preference (we're still below it), otherwise, it would probably be more profitable to just sit and watch and reload on the short side as this buying frenzy comes to pass.
...but again...if we get a crazy bullish 3-days - good money can be made by just swinging with the markets.
oh, btw, the energy markets resemble the broad markets - worth a look.
Robert Prechter - #msg-35833882
Prechter, chief executive of the market forecasting firm, warned in this month’s ‘Elliott Wave Theorist’ that a rebound in stocks could be “sharp and scary” for anyone who is so-called short. In a short sale, investors borrow stock and agree to sell them at a later date on hopes of capturing profit by replacing the shares after prices fall.
IAC: I stopped out of everything after the first 30-minutes - 100% cash.
The good news is that gold's massive hit here today could very well signal a hot counter trend rally - I love it when gold get's sold down first. Way back a long time ago when PM and the stocks that are levered to them were insurance against the vagaries of the market...when the insurance wasn't needed you'd get these massive sell-offs - gold used to be one of the most sensitive bull/bear indicators you could find.
The fact that we've seen such a disconnect between the markets and gold - tells me that my old friend the gold insurance indicator just jumped back into my T/A tool box.
K...thanks for the warning but I'll let the market stop me out.
Regards,
What happens to PMs and gold if new lows are seen on the main indexes by say 5-10%+? That's my concern at this pt along w/big divergences being seen in the large caps relative to gold.
The one reason I've allocated half my portfolio to being long gold is because I think at this point in time, it'll outperform my S&P500 short as shown on the chart below.
What's your allocation at this pt and what are you think ST? Seems a lot of people are on the same page at this pt sentiment wise. I've seen a number of bulls getting bearish which leads me to believe we blowoff to the upside first.
My allocation...? That's kind of personal, kind of tough to explain - but I'll say this; I trade using around 10% of my net worth (assets-liabilities) which is around $100,000 - I have one half of that short (S&P500) and the other half long (gold stocks). Like I've said on many occasions I'm a small time trader who knows his limitations.
I think we could see a blowoff to 1100-1200+ on this move
...agreed, I think we'll revisit $1000 as it become the new level of support - and then closing the year off at $1200 - that's my gut feeling, for what it's worth. Short term, I'm very bullish - but again, I'm a trend follower. The ADX is a screaming buy, so why would I daytrade for chump change...? In this move including minor pullbacks, we haven't even tripped the SAR in over a month and a half, we haven't even violated the 9-day MA (for 2-weeks) which is my primary buy/sell indicator. So as long as the 20/35/50-day MA are pointed North, I'm either long or neutral - and not nervous in any way...yet.
...and when I start getting nervous, I'll let you know.
It surprises how well the blue support line is holding up on the hourly chart.
...agreed...
all we're seeing is deflation--the balloons are popping--and gold, guns and heirloom seeds are becoming the currency dejour.
trading against a strengthening trend, exciting...???????
K...just take a look at the ADX and you'll realize that buying is an act of insanity--you can only be NEUTRAL OR SHORT in a bear market....and we broke support in a big way on Tuesday....this is a bear market.
Btw, the TSX is levered heavily on banks, insurance companies and energy. Gold in Canada is barely a byproduct compared to exports like coal and potash.
why...???