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I'm not saying it's a strong buy... but it does look interesting. Another one I like is Cameco from Canada, trades on the NYSE as CCJ -- it trades below book value and it's profitable.
Regards,
Michael
Cush... silly question, what indicator would you use to determine a proper stop-loss? I guessing there must be something that gages the volatility.
...anyway, I'm thinking about upgrading my account with Stockcharts, if only to have a more organised watchlist. :) They certainly have a pile a stuff to read, especially now with the take-over of Murphy Morris.
Regards,
Michael
EZ... thanks for passing this on-- I'm looking to build a watchlist of companies that mine and/or generate electricity using either coal or uranium.
Are you familiar with Consol Energy (CNX) by any chance?
Regards,
Michael
...this might be a buying opp for gold stocks, no? I can imagine some stink bids will get filled today. A surprising finish for Hecla yesterday-- some of the other mid-teer miners might be worth looking at too.
Regards,
Michael
I see the headlines in Canada's business paper include "GE profit rises 25%" -- this rally might have some leggs.
Regards,
Michael
Cush... I don't mean to beat a dead horse... you should see the pre-market on Bombardier ... it looks as though it'll open at four bucks?
...ugh.
Inco Sees 2002 Nickel Demand Growth Over 6 Percent
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/021010/5/pi3y.html
Tim... I like my credit card limit to remain at the minimum limit because all I ever use it for is to pay for things on the internet. A subscription here, a book there-- so $12,800 is about $12,300 more than I'll ever need. I just feel safer with a low limit.
Regards,
Michael
INTERVIEW: John Hathaway, Tocqueville Gold Fund
http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B285256C4E0074249D?OpenDocument
TANKER EXPLOSION POINTS TO TERRORISM
Citing unnamed sources, CNN is reporting that U.S. officials now
believe the explosion that disabled a French-owned oil tanker off the coast of Yemen Sunday was an act of terrorism. According to CNN, investigators have recovered residue of TNT and parts from a boat engine at the point of the explosion of the hull of the tanker Limburg.
About 90,000 barrels of oil either burned or leaked from the tanker, and oil covers about 45 miles of Yemen's northeastern coastline. State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said today about the explosion: "I don't think we are able to say one way or another whether it was an act of terror."
Boucher said any information would come from Yemeni and French
investigators, but added that "terrorism has not been ruled out." Also Thursday, an Arab newspaper reported that it received a statement from a fundamentalist group claiming responsibility for the explosion.
More on this story Friday on ENL.
10/10/2002 06:29 PM EDT
http://www.energynewslive.com
Ahhhh, here's the answer:
Morgan Stanley: Stock Market Has Bottomed
Thursday October 10, 3:30 pm ET
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/021010/markets_stocks_technical_2.html
Kinda like Hecla's one day chart, eh?
I gosh darned near had a coronary after I seen the close... it's still not reflected by the spot price-- but something gotta be up???
Cush... I watched the tape today on Nortel-- it looked weak (to say the least) it's hard to tell though because the markets are so insanely volatile. I'd also be concerned that it didn't pop with the rest of the boys today. If this rally can carry another day, you might be sitting pretty-- otherwise its "Katie barr the door."
...and about BBD.B-- I originally had my stop loss set at $3.08, after yesterdays action, I chickened out and sold it prematurely... too bad, since the stock lite right up today. Just out of curiousity, should I have followed my original plan and held? When a person says $3.08, I should of held until $3.08 was hit, no?
Methinks I was whipsawed.
Regards,
Michael
...speaking of sfinktah -- I had reduced the limit on my credit card to a thousand dollars about 7 months ago. I just received a friendly note from MBNA saying that they wanted me to enjoy the holiday season and hiked the limit to $12,800. They even handed me some blank cheques for "peace of mind."
How nice...
Jim... who knows, maybe his web site is might be down because of the extreme table pounding he gave silver on his program last weekend. A disgruntled hacker, perhaps? Technology isn't infallible... I suspect he'll be back in business sooner rather than later.
About this thread... it's terrific to see the amount of posting here-- because most of it, is conversation as opposed to mindless news-story posting.
Keep up the good work!
Regards,
Michael
...your first post on IHub and you've been here a couple of years? You gotta like JW to break that kind of silence.
Regards,
Michael
Hi Jim, I'm not surprised at the pullback, and the severity of it too. It seems we can't get a decent run out of gold stocks no matter how bad the market tanks. Should we be surprised that we get nail by the proverbial sledgehammer when the market rallies?
Yeah... it's tough... but from past experiences the day isn't over yet, and some of the stocks you've mentioned are starting to turn around.
My watchlist tells me that telcoms are still in the crapper and GE (power generation)isn't exactly rebounding and my favorite flyboy Bombardier is hardly moving #msg-530380 ... despite the rally we're still looking at a tremendous amount of debt.
-- Sorry to hear about your SI thread.
Regards,
Global oils plumb new depths for offshore crude
LONDON - The global oil industry, armed with ever-improving technology, is drilling deeper and deeper under the oceans for oil that could provide a welcome complement in coming years to OPEC energy, analysts say.
http://www.planetark.org/dailynewsstory.cfm/newsid/18117/story.htm
Alcoa looks ahead to recovery in aluminium use
http://www.forbes.com/newswire/2002/10/10/rtr746998.html
Phelps Dodge optimism on '03 copper price tempered
http://www.forbes.com/newswire/2002/10/10/rtr747005.html
Gold Fields Limited Mining Charter Response
JOHANNESBURG, South Africa, Oct. 10 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ --
Gold Fields Limited (NYSE: GFI; JSE) today expressed support for the Broad-Based Socio-Economic Empowerment Charter for the South African Mining Industry (the Charter) published yesterday by the South African Government.
Ian Cockerill, Chief Executive Officer of Gold Fields said that the Company was in support of the Government's objective of redressing historic social and economic inequalities, and was committed to playing a central and constructive role in achieving a prosperous and inclusive economy for South Africa.
"Over the past decade South Africa has experienced a significant political emancipation which, in the long term, needs to be reinforced by a commensurate economic transformation," said Cockerill.
"Gold Fields is well positioned to meet the requirements of the Charter within the prescribed period. We have advanced stage projects on all of the issues covered by the Charter and, on several of them, are already in compliance with the Charter," he said.
The salient points of the Charter are as follows:
No Nationalisation
-- It is not the intention of the government to nationalise the mining industry.
Transfer of Ownership
-- Transfer of ownership in the industry will take place in a transparent manner, for fair market value, and on a willing seller willing buyer basis.
-- The industry will achieve a 15% transfer of ownership within five years. To this end the industry will assist historically disadvantaged South African (HDSA) companies to secure finance to fund participation to an amount of R100 billion, which equates to approximately 15% of the South African mining industry.
-- In addition, the industry commits to achieve 26% HDSA ownership within a 10-year period on the basis of willing seller, willing buyer; at fair market value; at no risk to companies and subject to the availability of finance.
-- Each company will contribute proportionately towards the achievement of the ownership targets, receiving credit for a range of passive and active types of ownership including direct ownership of shares; joint ventures; employees share schemes; as well as previous empowerment transactions.
Licensing
-- To facilitate the conversion of old order mining rights to new order mining rights within the prescribed period of five years there will be a flexible "scorecard" approach incorporating a company's performance on the following issues: human resource development; employment equity; migrant labour; mine community and rural development; housing and living conditions; procurement; ownership; and beneficiation.
The "scorecard" mechanism still needs to be developed and will be the subject of further engagement between stakeholders.
Gold Fields is one of the worlds largest precious metals companies and produces approximately 4.5 million ounces of gold annually from operations in South Africa, Ghana and Australia. The company has proven and probable reserves of approximately 79 million ounces. It also has a 51% stake in an advanced stage exploration project, the Arctic Platinum Partnership, in Finland. Gold Fields trades on the Johannesburg and New York Stock Exchanges (GFI) as well as on the London, Paris, Brussels and Swiss exchanges.
EZ, I'm actually a long-term energy bull and Canada is a net exporter of both oil and gas to the U.S. and coal to Asia.
Regards,
Michael
S.Africa mines absorb charter, stocks pare losses
Reuters, 10.10.02, 6:09 AM ET
By Sue Thomas
JOHANNESBURG, Oct 10 (Reuters) - Mining shares moved off early Thursday lows as investors absorbed South African plans to give blacks a greater stake in the country's mineral wealth, but weak global markets limited their gains.
Most of the mining firms with big stakes in South Africa and analysts welcomed a new mining charter, released on Wednesday, while Anglo American has yet to respond.
Anglo American, South Africa's largest company, shed 3.2 percent to 126.50 rand, but by 0925 GMT it had pared some of its losses and was 2.3 percent lower at 127.70 rand.
Anglo share was hard hit when a first draft of the charter was leaked in July, which scared investors with suggestions that 30 percent of mining assets and 51 percent of all new projects be sold to black businesses with 10 years.
At the 126.50 rand low hit on Thursday morning, Anglo was 41 percent below its life high hit in February this year, and 16 percent below its levels immediately before the July leak.
The final version of the charter, worked out between the industry, government and unions, says 15 percent of the country's mining assets must be in black hands within five years and 26 percent within 10 years.
"I'm still going through it, but it's not as bad as we initially thought. The 26 percent sounds bad, but if you read the detail there are a lot of concessions to the mining industry," said one analyst.
The world's largest diversified miner, BHP Billiton, said it supported the new charter's aims.
"Overall, we support the charter and confirm our willingness in negotiations for any transactions going forward," said Michael Campbell, BHP Billiton's spokesman in South Africa. "The effectiveness will depend on the specifics in implementing the process."
POSITIVE REACTION
BHP Billiton lost 1.5 percent to 46.80 rand in early trade in Johannesburg, but came back into positive territory. By 0930 GMT it was 0.5 percent down at 47.25 rand. In London, the firm was down 0.8 percent at 288 pence.
AngloGold, South Africa's largest gold producer, said the targets, particularly 15 percent in five years, were achievable.
AngloGold's share extended its gains after the company's reaction, adding 3.9 percent or 19.80 rand to 530 rand.
Smaller peer Harmony Gold threw its support behind the charter, and said it was well positioned to meet the conditions of the charter ahead of the targeted dates.
Analysts said the charter offered certainty after months of investor jitters, but said weak global markets had conspired to cap mining stocks' gains on positive reaction to the charter.
"I think the charter is good ... but from a market perspective it's difficult to tell because of weak equity markets ... It's difficult to attach or to quantify the effect in the market this morning," said Rice Rinaldi analyst Allan Cooke.
"I think the certainty that the final copy lends to the market is a positive, but there are still many question marks, including weak market sentiment and the U.S.-Iraq situation, and many other negatives that will have an impact," he added.
South Africa's second largest gold producer, Gold Fields, Anglo American Platinum, and London-listed minerals and mining firm Xstrata have yet to respond.
"We're busy studying the document, and will respond towards the end of the day," said Mike Mtakati, a spokesman for Angloplat, the world's largest platinum producer. (Additional reporting by James Regan in Sydney)
http://www.forbes.com/newswire/2002/10/10/rtr746748.html
Oh, about China... the best way to invest is right here in Canada. Energy, my man. Energy!
Wow!!! Japan down big... -324.61 (-3.80%) as of this writing.
Kastel if you follow my TA rules as I posted them over on Cush's thread -- you can trade in and out of these things. You need 4 out 4 signals to buy-- and just 3 to sell.
FWIW, Kinross is the best play of the bunch, it tends to swing like a barn door-- in other words you get plenty of time to buy and sell. You just need to chart it once at the end of the each day. Eldorado on the other hand has a tendency to trade out of step with the rest of the gang. There's two reason for that... 1) 10% of the float is held by Goldfields. 2) Newmont has a nearby property (same kinda dirt) that uses the heap leach method of extraction.
The market sees a 3 way deal in the making for that 8 million ouncer in Turkey.
BTW, this is not a buy recommendation. Do not buy a stock because it's a T/O target... Haven't we been through this already? :)
Regards,
Michael
Norilsk, GM Strike Long-Term Contract
By Simon Ostrovsky
Staff Writer Norilsk Nickel has clinched a long-term contract with General Motors Corp. to supply the auto giant with palladium, platinum and rhodium, Norilsk announced Wednesday.
The company described the contract, which was signed by its fully owned London-based subsidiary Norimet Ltd., as "the embodiment of [our] strategy of entering into direct agreements with end users of precious metals."
A GM spokesman said that as the world's No. 1 palladium supplier, Norilsk "will be able to support our global business."
Norilsk shares rose 1.4 percent to $17.85 on the news.
The company gave no other details of the contract. Platinum deals have been rarely publicized since production data was classified a state secret in 1996.
This is only the second contract Norilsk Nickel has won since it was issued a license to sell platinum group metals, or PGMs, in April. The other was with Japanese car manufacturer Mitsubishi.
Automakers are the main consumers of PGMs, which are used in catalytic converters to clean exhaust emissions.
Analysts believe the contract to be a goodwill gesture by GM and say the contract itself is unlikely to be large. "For the past 18 months, auto companies have been justifiably skeptical about the certainty of the Russian palladium supply and moreover, built up high inventories of the metal themselves, which have now been largely utilized," said Renaissance Capital analyst Robert Edwards. "Today's announcement is significant in that it forms the basis for more offtake by GM in the future, crucial for the re-establishment of a balanced revenue profile for Norilsk into the future."
Troika Dialog analyst Vasily Nikolayev said the contract is a sign of consumers' increased trust of Norilsk Nickel. Nevertheless, he said another factor influencing the deal could be that producers of catalytic converters could be running out of PMG stockpiles, forcing them into long-term contracts with Russian suppliers. "This deal could be a flag for other producers." he said.
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2002/10/10/042.html
To the price of gold, nothing. -- non-issue.
To the SA stocks involved it might be tough in the ST and it certainly adds value to our North American properties in a geo-political kinda way. But in the end companies like Harmony have proven reserves of over 30 million ounces of gold and another 100 million in the probable category-- they can afford to share a little with the natives.
-- also there's been some new legislation that's very similar to what we have here in North-America in regards to mining leases. The government has implemented a "use it or lose it clause" on the miners. Without ongoing exploration the big boys lose their leases, which is good for the small drilling outfits.
...another take on the same subject:
http://www.news24.com/News24/Finance/Economy/0,4186,2-8-25_1269587,00.html
Regards,
Michael
Jim... don't feel so bad 4figureAU -- most people have too much on their minds to think about a persons online alias. Personally I didn't get it either.
About the strength of gold... the market is still too small and it's still too easy to manipulate.
But what about cocoa?
It seems like commodities that are used in industry like copper, nickel, silver and palladium are getting slammed. Commodities used by the consumer-- cocoa, coffee, wheat, gold and platinum are rising.
...and besides my gold mutual funds performance against the markets is absolutely stunning. Buy and hold at it's best -- if you can stand the market swings.
Check out buy and hold at its worse:
#msg-530231
Regards,
Michael
Kastel... haven't a clue why you posted that? Please, a little insight on where you're going with this.
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Did I tell you I was stopped out of Bombardier today? Sheeeesh! I felt that everything was going well until the afternoon started setting in... a massive volume spike followed by a total cliff dive. It actually hit $3.67 early in the morning before tumbling all the way to $3.13, incredible.
I suspect the leasing story is gaining some traction. From what I understand, Bombardier Capital would guarantee a buyout price for each plane that was leased. The problem now, is that air traffic has fallen so much that the airlines are returning the jets in large numbers. Is Bombardier Capital considered a separate company? Nope. The parent company, Bombardier is on the hook to guarantee the loans.
Maybe someone finally figured out what BBD.B is really worth in the last hour of trading... could get even uglier tomorrow morning.
So what I do with the rest of the money, honey? I was the bull behind Eldorado Gold today... :)
Regards,
Michael
New York Times... by a long shot.
Regards,
Michael
"Dr Doom" urges invest in China, commods boom
Reuters, 10.09.02, 1:54 PM ET
By Alden Bentley
LONDON, Oct 9 (Reuters) - If you are gloomy about the planet's long-term economic outlook and are seeking the most profitable place to hide for the next decade, your safest bet is probably a condo in China, according to the contrarian investment advisor Marc Faber.
Speaking at a seminar of metals industry professionals sponsored by commodities house Man Financial Ltd, Hong Kong-based Faber, who is also known as Dr Doom, also said commodities from agricultural goods to metals were poised for long bull market, along with other real assets like property.
The persuasive and pony-tailed Swiss-born economist, who writes the Gloom, Doom and Boom report, made the perhaps counterintuitive argument that commodity prices could soar over the next decade even if the overall economy remains weak, citing the rally in cocoa prices this year to 16-year highs after bottoming at multi-decade lows about two years ago.
"I would try to avoid financial assets and focus on commodities which have been in a bear market for more than 20 years," Faber told traders and industry executives from around the world gathered for the London Metal Exchange's annual LME Dinner Week.
He predicted "huge" appreciation in precious metals, suggesting buying gold and gold company shares, along with other commodities.
The economic slump in place since the runaway bull market collapsed in 2000 is just an appetizer for the real recession, which comes next year, Faber predicted.
A credit bubble in the United States and Europe will probably end badly, with a loss of confidence in real money. This will make assets you can physically hold and touch among the only outlets for investors.
"Whenever you have a bubble -- gold, oil and commodities in 1980, the Japanese market in 1990 and the NASDAQ in 2000 -- and the bubble bursts, there is always afterward a change in leadership," Faber said of sector performance.
Europe's banks look terrible and Asian economies are still staggering from competition from China.
The dollar looks weak but a vulnerable euro and Japanese yen may keep it from depreciating too much, he said.
China, with its 1.3 billion population is just beginning to climb the development curve, although it is apparent when looking at its newly-booming modern cities that its economic development over the last 10 years as been dramatic.
Faber said the window of opportunity is relatively short because global trends toward instant communication and rapid transportation have accelerated the speed of change.
"I think it is quite likely that China will be the workshop of the world," Faber said.
As a result China will become one of the major users of raw materials.
By contrast, in India, the world's second most populous nation, bureaucracy is so "horrible" that it is an impediment to economic development, he said.
http://www.forbes.com/newswire/2002/10/09/rtr745814.html
I lied... I jumped out @ $3.29 -- this is wild!
Regards,
Cush... sorry, I meant to say September 19-- then I drew a line from that intersection point that matched the slant of the fast and slow lines on the MACD table.
On the second chart, yup... that's what I was looking at. I was also thrilled by the way it finish in the last 15 minutes of trading.
My stoploss is $3.08-- and that's firm.
Regards,
Michael
B... I like'em both-- especially WTC.
Regards,
Michael
Augie... good luck dude! I consider myself lucky when it comes to internet connections, it's one of the few problems that I DON'T have.
Regards,
Michael
Hi Tim... I wrote a more technical explanation about my entry point into Bombardier over at Cush's thread #msg-528588 -- FWIW, I can't say I'm comfortable with this market-- I have my stop loss set tightly at $3.08
I gotta tell-ya ... I never imagined, even in my wildest dreams that a bear market would be anything like this. It makes the Daily Reckoning look optimistic.
Regards,
Michael
Add-blocking? yup, wouldn't venture out on the Internet without it. I actually paid for my add blocking software. Like you've heard me lament on several occasions there is only so many times I can tolerate X-10 and Casino ads.
Cush... about my ST charting ... I normally look at the companies in question from a F/A standpoint, things like dividend yield, price to sales and cash flow are my primary triggers. But this choppy bear market has me wondering how to sell a stock that's had a nice run-up but is still relatively cheap (from an F/A standpoint) without having to endure a roundtrip from the seemingly endless bearishness.
I'd have a heck of a lot more money if I could just learn how to sell.
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The Bombardier chart and what I find attractive from a technical standpoint. The MACD... going from a 3 month chart, the fast line did its first bullish crossover at September 19 (using 3,6,7) I tightened up the chart to a daily because I'm looking for a quick exit, hopefully on Thursday where finally the slow and fast lines will have broken through zero on the chart table. And in looking at the daily chart, I took my position at $3.63 because it was the first bullish crossover of the day. You'll also notice the height of the histogram has been diminishing-- even though the volumes are still a little high for my taste. You’ll also note the pull between bull and bear seems to be undecided for the last couple of days and because of the rising trend lines the bears IMHO are exhausted.
The Stochastic @ less than 20% confirms the W%R that we are in a oversold state … I use them both because I find myself getting stopped out for the wrong reasons – I use a slow Stochastic for the big picture and Williams for the daily look.
The RSI… unfortunately I wasn’t paying attention when I saved the chart. Rightly or wrongly I normally match the RSI setting to the MACD – I should have had a seven-day setting on that one too.
Anyway… thanks for giving me the opportunity to explain myself—like I said I’m still new at this.
Regards,
Michael
Cush... sorry about that -- my knowledge of T/A is confined to watching momentum... I think. :)
This is what I look for before making a buy: