MDA - Market Direction Analysis

[LG]

augieboo: I am surprised you are posting back to me points 1a
and 1b. As they are very similar to something I posted to
you via pmail a few weeks ago...gg

I started pointing those points out on Silicon Investor in
1998. Heck one of the SI self-style gurus made fun of the fact
that I illustrated various likely horizontal support and
resistance areas on my charts. If my memory serves me he
posted a joke about my charts on his web site…LOL

I already know about Jeff's "retrace map". I've read about all
of that “absolute” rhetoric I can handle.

The rhetoric reminds me of Voltaire. I will never forget
Voltaire preaching on the QCOM thread and later on his "Porch"
thread about “time compression” and the “houses”. Much of what
he was preaching was being supported by a couple of resident
thread technical analyst, held in the highest regard, at the
time. Unfortunately, the technicians did not realize at the
time, they had a lot to learn, they thought they had it all
figured out. Eventually the market made the fact that they had
a lot to learn, exceedingly clear.

I warned in private and some in public that the techniques and
methods being used were less than the absolutes they had
determined them to be. The absolutes they had become so
confident in were only appearing to work so well because they
were looking up in a bull market blow off and they were
concluding incorrect correlations. This was providing a false
since of expertise. I did not even try to reason with
Voltaire, as I could only conclude he knew he was blowing smoke.

I am now seeing this in reverse in the bear market on more
than one thread I on occasion read.

Sure the NASDAQ Comp decline (retrace) is bobbing and weaving
along the horizontal support and resistance areas of the
previous bull market ascent. Hell that is not news to me. I’ve
been pointing this type of influence out for years.

Technicians that get too caught up in their new found bear
market technical expertise using newfound “absolute” trading
techniques and methods that can’t be wrong or fail are
flirting with the absolute humbler, Mr. Market.

I won’t have much compassion for those that have repeatedly
beat their chest while pointing down in a bear market
proclaiming their genius as they rely on false correlations.
We’ve seen this before as the “new era” bull market gurus beat
their chest while looking up in a bull market blow off. I will
personally feel sad for those that eventually get burned
blindly following the chest beaters, but in the end they will
only have themselves to blame as well...(sigh)

Regards,
LG

PS: Here is a daily plot of the Reverse Percent Performance
Chart. You might note that all three of the indexes plotted
are bobbing and weaving along the horizontal support and
resistance areas of the bull market as they decline and
retrace, but not one of them has followed an exact path down,
not one.

My TS6 Daily Reverse Percent Performance Chart

NOTE: This chart is a multiple screen capture and is extra wide.




Good trading...

Regards,
LG