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Hi PT - You say your system won't work with gaps, yet we get opening gaps just about every day. Do you have some "size" of gap you're willing to let your system trade on?
Edit: I trade EEM, so that's where I'm coming from...very gappy, and the gaps aren't small. Though your comments on SPY-size gaps would be welcome too. thx
Thanks Ted. I've been following a version of your MA strategy and it's been working well for me. You hadn't mentioned MAs recently so I just wanted to check in on where you stood. Thanks again.
Ted, just looking at it from the moving averages - the whole "buying the market structure" thing - what do the charts tell you?
Rich is right in that AJ made it premium. He posted that somewhere...I just don't remember where (he posts at two other boards). His reason was it would give better control on the board while he's no longer posting there.
Good thoughts. As for not trying for every penny, definitely agree. I think my question on whether to buy the 10-MA cross at close or intraday was not out of greed but a function of the volatile market. We've been getting 10-15% moves on single days, and if you bought the 10-MA cross at CLOSE, i.e. after the big move, it could limit your upside for a few days. Same thing with a 10-MA cross that is a gap. Big moves tend to put a stop to further movement, and it's ideal to get that MA cross as soon as you can. Unless you like lulls in your forward momentum - I don't, at least not in a choppy market.
Anyway, you've given me some hints in your earlier post and I plan to follow up on that.
GL in your trading. CD
Okay thanks PT. I'll experiment with your clues. Thanks for what you have shared publically to date and good luck with your new venture. CD
PriceTeam, I don't have a premium membership so can't send this as a PM - sorry for posting it OT here. Anyway, I've been backtesting the MA system you posted on the other board and I have a question. When waiting for price to get above the 10 DMA, should it "close" above the MA? That sometimes leads to missing out on some good profit (e.g. 10% in one day). But intraday action is so unpredictable and a strong candle can easily turn into a shooting star and close below the MA. So I'm wondering if you've found a way to determine intraday whether or not you should buy that 10 MA crossing.
Thanks in advance,
cdeeley
Per your moving average strategy JPM's 20 MA is starting to trend down. And price is below both 10 and 20 MAs. Isn't that bearish per your IT strategy?
Amen.
I've been watching these dialogues with interest and agree with both sides. We're facing formidable resistance...But I feel like I'm watching what happened with oil when everyone was front-running the parabolic rise by going short and making it go even more parabolic. I've made that mistake (shorting too early) and suffered for it. I'm now firmly in the camp of waiting for signals to short. Capital preservation won't have it any other way.
???
Just asking cuz most traders I follow -- incl those who've knocked the conspiracy theorists in the past, have put on their own tin foil hats. From what I gather, AJ thinks this runup from March is a normal oversold rally. Just trying to square the two perspectives.
You don't buy the theories that the PPT with the help of Goldman are propping up the market?
PriceTeam -- I think you may have overlooked my earlier post, so here's a repeat.
How much of a drop in SPY would you estimate is needed to bend the 20 MA down? I'm interested if you (or others) have a good rule of thumb for making that kind of calculation. Thanks.
PT, how much of a drop in SPY would you estimate is needed to bend the 20 MA down? Thanks
Are you talking an IT high or a shorter term high?
Good answer, thanks [eom]
Is this in line with your mirror scenario is what I actually meant. You outlined a mid 900s target I believe, but am unsure what path you thought it would take and if current conditions are in line with that path. I can't remember which timeframe you're using for your mirror, otherwise I'd look it up myself.
Reason I'm asking is you've been spot on so far when lots of others were bearish, so just wondering if anything has changed... or not. Thanks.
What does your gut tell you? You still leaning towards the 900s mirror scenario, or have we spent too much time in the 840-850 zone?
Hey AJ, you're on a roll here. Where do you think we go after that? A retest of 666ish? a trading range at the higher levels? or something else?
Thanks Hiker.
Ya, I've read a lot of Dr. Brett. Unfortunately, his great indicators can't be translated into Stockcharts. I feel more "hands on", and learn more, when I can make my own charts.
Thanks jetlag. I see that neither are near the 1000 level Hiker was talking about, so I'm not sure we're dealing with the same thing here.
How would I do that on Stockcharts?
Again, I do get some intraday internals via SC but NYAD is not one of them. I've never used NYAD for that reason. (And I'm new to internals in general, so I apologize if my question is N00bish.)
Hiker, what I can see on Stockcharts is limited. I do, however, have a means to see NYADV and NYDEC (plus their ratios) in realtime. I'm wondering if I can use those to get the equivalent of the 1000 number you cited for the NYAD.
Is there an intraday substitute you would use for NYAD, which is EOD?
Thanks hiker, that clarifies things.
Also, wasn't aware you followed E-wave - I had mostly seen you use horizontals and internals.
If you ever have the inclination to post your wave counts, would be much appreciated.
Yes, you had written that that was a horizontal of interest. I took that to mean a rejection (like today) was bearish. Did I get that right, or are you looking for another try?
Such as breakdown from the NYA horizontal at 5178?
Okay, as in multi-month bottom then, thx.
Thrust initiation? -- if you don't mind, could you explain what that means? I've heard it before in connection with MCO moves and was unclear if it meant ST bounce or multimonth rally. Thx
Bloomberg says otherwise.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ammuBy46s93o
Interesting. Thanks very much.
TOM?
TOQ?
M = month and Q = quarter, but what does "TO" mean?
Thanks
Hi George,
Do you happen to know if there's a Stockcharts symbol that looks at the strong leaders vs weak stocks that they're talking about?
Thanks!
Okay thanks.
I had thought there was some sort of cause and effect, but it sounds like it's just a coincidental correspondence.
Thanks again.
Hi aj,
How does that work exactly? I mean the mechanics.
Do the big guys see that the little guys (i.e.suckers) are loaded up on calls and they take down the market?
Thanks.
BTW, nice site you run here.